By P M Amza –

War, Drones, and a New Kind of Diplomacy

When Volodymyr Zelenskyy travelled to the Gulf in recent weeks, the visit was widely interpreted as part of Ukraine’s continuing search for financial and political support amid a protracted war. Yet such a reading, while not incorrect, is incomplete. Beneath the familiar language of diplomacy and solidarity lay a far more consequential transaction—one shaped by the hard lessons of modern warfare.

This was not merely a diplomatic tour. It was, in effect, a strategic pitch—built on Ukraine’s experience in countering large-scale attacks by Iranian-origin drones deployed by Russian forces, a threat that has fundamentally altered the character of the conflict.

The Drone War That Changed Everything

The Russia–Ukraine conflict has evolved into a proving ground for the growing significance of unmanned systems in modern warfare. Russian forces, drawing extensively on Iranian-supplied loitering munitions such as the Shahed-series drones, have conducted repeated strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, urban centres, and energy networks.

These systems—relatively inexpensive, difficult to detect, and capable of being deployed in large numbers—have exposed the limitations of traditional air defence models. The strategic dilemma is clear: defending against low-cost drones with high-cost interceptor systems is neither economically sustainable nor operationally efficient.

Faced with this challenge, Ukraine has been compelled to innovate under pressure. It has developed a layered response combining electronic warfare, mobile interception units, radar adaptation, and improvised countermeasures—often integrating civilian technologies into military use.

The economic asymmetry is stark. A single loitering drone may cost in the range of USD 20,000–50,000, while interceptor missiles used in advanced systems can exceed USD 3 million per launch. This imbalance has forced Ukraine to rethink conventional air defence logic and develop more sustainable countermeasures.

The result is not merely a set of tools, but a body of combat-tested operational experience—arguably one of Ukraine’s most valuable strategic assets today.

What Ukraine Gave: Experience, Adaptation, and Affordability

In its engagement with key Gulf partners such as Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, Ukraine’s offering was not limited to conventional diplomacy. It presented a package shaped by necessity and innovation.

First and foremost, Ukraine brought combat-proven counter-drone expertise refined under sustained, real-world conditions against Iranian-origin unmanned systems used by Russia.

Second, Ukraine offered a cost-effective alternative to high-end Western air defence platforms such as the Patriot missile system. While such systems remain highly effective against advanced missile threats, their use against low-cost drones presents a significant cost asymmetry. Ukraine’s approach—combining electronic disruption, lower-cost interception, and tactical flexibility—addresses this imbalance.

Third, Ukraine provided tactical doctrine and operational insight—including decentralised defence and integration of commercial technologies into national security frameworks.

Finally, Ukraine’s engagement came without heavy political conditionalities, allowing Gulf states to explore cooperation while maintaining broader strategic balance.

What Ukraine Got: Capital, Access, and Strategic Repositioning

In return, Ukraine appears to have secured gains that extend well beyond immediate financial support.

Reports indicate that Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s engagements resulted in multi-million-dollar cooperation frameworks spanning defence, reconstruction, and technology collaboration with Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. While precise figures remain undisclosed, the scope suggests a shift toward long-term strategic engagement.

This builds on existing financial support. The UAE has provided over USD 100 million in humanitarian aid, while Saudi Arabia announced a USD 400 million package in 2023. Qatar has also contributed through humanitarian and energy-related initiatives.

More importantly, Ukraine has gained entry into a defence market worth tens of billions annually, with Saudi Arabia alone spending roughly USD 70–75 billion per year on defence. Even limited penetration into this market would represent a strategic breakthrough.Ukraine has also strengthened its strategic legitimacy, repositioning itself as a contributor to global security rather than merely a recipient of assistance.

The Gulf’s Calculated Interest

For the Gulf states, this engagement reflects pragmatic necessity rather than symbolism.Saudi Arabia and the UAE have faced repeated drone and missile threats to critical infrastructure, underscoring the need for flexible and cost-effective defence systems.Ukraine offers precisely such solutions—tested in real combat conditions and adaptable to asymmetric threats.

At the same time, Gulf states are pursuing diversification in defence partnerships. While Western alliances remain central, there is growing interest in supplementing them with alternative expertise. Ukraine fits neatly into this evolving strategy.

Regional Context: The Jeddah Signal

The significance of Ukraine’s outreach is reinforced by the recent meeting in Jeddah involving leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Jordan. The discussions reportedly focused on regional escalation, protection of energy infrastructure, and the growing threat posed by drone and missile attacks.This meeting highlights a critical point: the demand for counter-drone capability in the region is real and urgent.

In this context, Ukraine’s engagement appears less opportunistic than strategic. It is responding to an emerging security requirement already recognised at the highest regional level.

Managing Alliances: The Question of U.S. Reaction

Notably, despite speculation in some social media narratives, there is little credible evidence that the United States has directly opposed Ukraine’s expanding defence engagement with Gulf states.

Claims that Washington has “blamed” Saudi Arabia for such cooperation are not supported by reliable reporting. Instead, the available evidence points to a more nuanced picture.

Where concerns exist, they appear to relate to broader strategic issues—such as energy market stability and the allocation of air defence resources—rather than the cooperation itself.

In this sense, Ukraine’s Gulf outreach reflects not a rupture in alliances, but an adaptation within them, where partners adjust to evolving security realities without fundamentally altering alignment.

A Subtle Shift in the Global Defence Landscape

What emerges is a notable shift in international security dynamics.

Traditionally, defence innovation has flowed from advanced industrial states to conflict zones. In this case, the direction is reversed. Ukraine—under sustained military pressure—has developed capabilities now sought by more stable but increasingly vulnerable states.

This reflects a broader transformation in modern warfare: effectiveness is now defined not only by technological sophistication, but by adaptability and cost-efficiency.The widespread use of Iranian-origin drones has not only reshaped the battlefield in Ukraine—it has also positioned Ukraine as a source of expertise in countering these systems globally.

Conclusion: Diplomacy in the Age of Adaptation

The significance of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Gulf visit lies not in symbolism, but in transformation.

Ukraine has leveraged the harsh realities of war into strategic opportunity—offering solutions born of necessity while securing financial, political, and economic gains.

At the same time, Gulf states have demonstrated a pragmatic willingness to diversify partnerships in response to evolving threats.

This interaction reflects a broader shift in global diplomacy—away from rigid alignments toward flexible, interest-driven engagement.

In this emerging landscape, Ukraine is no longer merely a theatre of conflict. It is becoming a participant in shaping the security architecture of other regions.And that may ultimately prove to be one of the most enduring consequences of this war.

References

1. International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), The Military Balance 2024 (London: Routledge, 2024), sections on Russia–Ukraine conflict and unmanned systems.
2. “Iranian Drones in Ukraine: Shahed-136 Explained,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), 2023, https://www.csis.org.
3. Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), “Russia’s Use of Iranian Shahed-136 UAVs in Ukraine,” 2023.
4. Dan Sabbagh, “Russia Using Iranian Kamikaze Drones to Target Ukraine Infrastructure,” The Guardian, October 2022.
5. U.S. Department of Defense, “Fact Sheet on Security Assistance to Ukraine,” 2023–2024 updates.
6. Jen Judson, “Patriot Missile Costs and Capabilities,” Defense News, 2023.
7. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, “Trends in World Military Expenditure 2024,” https://www.sipri.org.
8. SIPRI Military Expenditure Database, Saudi Arabia country profile, accessed 2025.
9. “Saudi Arabia announces $400 Million Aid Package to Ukraine,” Reuters, October 2023.
10. “UAE Provides Humanitarian Assistance to Ukraine,” UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs, official statements, 2022–2024.
11. “Qatar’s Role in Ukraine Mediation and Humanitarian Support,” Al Jazeera, 2023–2024 coverage.
12. Michael Kofman and Rob Lee, “Lessons from Ukraine on Air Defense and Drone Warfare,” War on the Rocks, 2023.
13. Jack Watling, “The Air War in Ukraine,” RUSI Special Report, 2023.
14. “Ukraine’s Expanding Defence Industry and International Cooperation,” The Economist, 2024.
15. “Global Drone Warfare Trends and Cost Asymmetry,” CSIS Missile Defense Project, 2023.
16. “Leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan Discuss Regional Security and Escalation,” Arab News, March 2026.
17. “Allies Signal Concerns Over Energy Markets and Air Defence Allocation,” Reuters, March 2026.

*The author is former Sri Lanka’s  Ambassador to EU, Belgium, Turkey, Ukraine   and Saudi Arabia and former Additional Secretary , Ministry of Foreign Affairs