By Asoka S. Seneviratne –

Prof. Asoka S. Seneviratne

“Vision without action is a daydream. Action without vision is a nightmare.” — Japanese Proverb (Commonly associated with the transformative leadership required for national development)

The massive turnout at the last May Day rallies, coupled with the strategic insights gained from the recent Vietnamese delegation’s visit, has undeniably forced Sri Lanka into a moment of reckoning that demands a clear, disciplined vision for national survival. This convergence of populist energy and a proven blueprint for Vietnam’s success signals that we can no longer afford to drift. While IMF & official statistics suggest a stabilizing economy, the ground reality for the average Sri Lankan remains a “womb-to-tomb” struggle defined by high energy costs and a stifling cost of living. The NPP government inherited a landscape where the “macro” looks better on paper, but the “micro” remains in a state of quiet crisis. While the IMF program has provided a necessary floor to prevent total collapse, it is not a ladder for upward mobility; it stops the free-fall but does not fuel the ascent. To truly fulfill its mandate, the administration must look beyond this basic stabilization framework and adopt a proactive growth strategy. By emulating Vietnam’s model of export-led industrialization, aggressive trade liberalization, and energy sector efficiency, Sri Lanka can transition from its current “lethargic performance” toward becoming a sustainable welfare state within three years.

The Paradox of Stability: Why Macro-Indicators Fail the Kitchen Table

The recent May Day rallies saw the President express satisfaction with economic performance—inflation dropping, reserves growing, and queues disappearing, which he cited as signs of stability. However, this “stability” feels hollow to a populace whose purchasing power has been decimated. The NPP government inherited a country where the “macro” looks better, but the “micro” is in crisis. In other words, it’s one thing to see a stable exchange rate on the evening news, but quite another to watch the price of a loaf of bread double at the local shops while your wages remain frozen. Grand speeches about “economic growth” ring hollow to a parent forced to choose between paying the electricity bill and buying basic school supplies for their children. For the average person, it feels like running a marathon where the finish line—a simple, comfortable life—keeps moving further away, no matter how hard they work. Even when the government celebrates “lower inflation,” the reality on the ground is that prices haven’t actually dropped; they’ve simply stopped jumping, leaving them stuck at an all-time high that few can afford. Ultimately, you can’t eat a credit rating, and a truly healthy economy must be felt at the kitchen table, not just seen on a government spreadsheet.

The disconnect lies in the difference between stabilization and recovery. The IMF program has provided a floor, but it is not a ladder.  This means that while the IMF program has successfully placed a floor under the economy to prevent total collapse, it lacks the rungs necessary for citizens to climb toward real prosperity. Think of it as a set of emergency brakes that stops a crashing car: it prevents the wreckage, but it doesn’t provide the engine or the fuel to get you to your destination. The program focuses on balancing national books and stabilizing the currency, which often requires cutting the very subsidies and services that families depend on to get ahead. Because the “floor” is designed for national survival rather than individual success, it doesn’t automatically create high-paying jobs or lower the cost of living in the local market. Ultimately, the IMF ensures the country doesn’t go bankrupt today, but building the ladder—the real opportunities for growth and a better life—remains a task that only internal policy and local vision can achieve. For the NPP to meet the high expectations of the people, it must recognize that the current lethargic growth is insufficient to fund the social safety nets promised in its manifesto. We cannot boast of a recovery when the cost of survival remains an insurmountable peak for the working class. We all need to understand this ground reality.

The “Ditwah” and the Energy Debt: Breaking the Cycle of High Costs

A primary driver of the current “lethargic” economic state is the exorbitant cost of energy—both electricity and fuel. This is the “Dithwah” (the heavy burden) that prevents local industries from being competitive and consumes the disposable income of households.

Vietnam’s success was predicated on providing cheap, reliable energy to manufacturers. In contrast, Sri Lanka’s policy of “cost-reflective pricing” without “cost-effective production” has penalized the consumer for the inefficiencies of state monopolies. To improve welfare, the NPP must fast-track the transition to renewable energy—not just for environmental reasons, but as a strategic move to lower the baseline cost of living and production.

The Vietnamese Mirror: Lessons from a “Doi Moi” Approach

The recent visit of the Vietnamese delegation provides a timely blueprint. Vietnam, once poorer than Sri Lanka, transformed itself through Doi Moi (Renovation) reforms. They understood that welfare is a byproduct of production. This means that Vietnam’s transformation through the Doi Moi reforms serves as a powerful testament to the reality that a nation cannot redistribute wealth it has not yet created. They recognized early on that true social welfare is not a gift from the state, but a sustainable byproduct of robust national production. By shifting the focus from consumption to capacity, the government turned the country into a global manufacturing hub, proving that a full treasury is the only reliable engine for a social safety net. When factories hum, and exports rise, the resulting economic surplus naturally funds the schools, hospitals, and subsidies that a “lethargic” economy simply cannot afford. Ultimately, to prioritize welfare without first securing production is to build a house on sand; only through an aggressive, production-first mindset can Sri Lanka generate the permanent resources required to lift its citizens out of a “womb-to-tomb” struggle.

Vietnam’s strategy was simple yet disciplined: focus on export-oriented manufacturing, attract high-quality Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and integrate into global value chains. While Sri Lanka has remained inward-looking or reliant on a few commodities, Vietnam diversified. For the NPP, the lesson is clear: protectionism might offer short-term political gains, but open-market competition creates the jobs and foreign exchange necessary for long-term welfare.

Trade Strategy: Beyond Domestic Consumption

In view of Vietnam’s trade strategy, Sri Lanka lacks a cohesive “Export First” mentality. Vietnam has signed over 15 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), including the EU–Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA)  and the Comprehensive Agreement for Trans- Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Given the above, the NPP government must shift from an “import-substitution” mindset to an “export-promotion” mindset. Within the next three years, the government should aggressively pursue bilateral trade agreements that allow Sri Lankan SMEs to access larger markets. This is the only sustainable way to stabilize the Rupee and lower the cost of imported essential goods, thereby easing the cost of living without relying on unsustainable subsidies.

Re-Engineering FDI: Moving from “Rent-Seeking” to “Value-Adding.”

Sri Lanka’s failure to attract FDI is not just due to the civil war or the 2022 crash; it is due to a lack of ease in doing business. Vietnam treats investors as partners, providing “one-stop shops” for approvals. For Sri Lanka, establishment of “one-stop shops” is no longer a mere administrative convenience; it is a critical necessity for a nation seeking to break the chains of bureaucratic lethargy. For too long, entrepreneurs and ordinary citizens have been trapped in a labyrinth of fragmented departments, where progress is strangled by red tape and redundant paperwork. By centralizing essential services under a single, efficient roof, the government can signal a radical shift toward a “business-unusual” mindset that values time as a national asset. This overdue transformation is the only way to eliminate the corruption born of complexity and to foster a climate where innovation can actually breathe. To delay the creation of these integrated hubs any further is to remain complicit in the very inefficiency that has historically stalled our economic engine. In short, in Sri Lanka, the “lethargic performance” is often a result of bureaucratic red tape and corruption. The NPP’s manifesto centers on transparency and anti-corruption. By digitizing the investment process and eliminating the “middleman” culture, the NPP can attract the type of FDI that creates high-paying jobs. When people have better-paying jobs, the government’s welfare burden decreases, and the standard of living rises naturally.

Human Capital: Protecting the “womb-to-tomb” Through Education

It seems that Vietnam’s struggle begins in the womb or cradle.  This means that Vietnam’s economic miracle was fueled by a massive investment in primary and vocational education. They ensured their workforce was ready for the factories of the future (electronics, semiconductors).

Sri Lanka’s NPP government must move beyond the rhetoric of “free education” and focus on “quality, relevant education or lifelong learning.” To meet the 3-year expectation, there must be an immediate pivot toward vocational training aligned with global market needs. This ensures that the youth are not just degree-holders, but “skilled assets” who can contribute to an export-led economy.

Strategic Social Safety Nets: Welfare as an Investment, Not a Handout

The NPP manifesto emphasizes the well-being of the people. However, in a debt-ridden economy, welfare must be targeted. Vietnam uses a “pro-poor” growth strategy where the benefits of trade are funneled into rural infrastructure and healthcare.

Sri Lanka must move away from universal subsidies that benefit the wealthy (like low fuel taxes)  and toward a robust, digitized social safety net (like an expanded Aswesuma program) that protects the most vulnerable from the volatility of global markets. This ensures that even as we undergo painful structural reforms, the “cradle to the tomb” experience is one of dignity rather than desperation.

The Three-Year Roadmap: From Policy to Ground Reality

To fulfill the people’s expectations, the NPP’s next three years must be defined by three pillars:

Energy Reform (Months 1-12): Radical transparency in the CEB and CPC, and a rapid rollout of rooftop solar and wind projects to lower industrial costs.

Trade Liberalization (Months 12-24): Finalizing stalled FTAs (with India, China, and Thailand) to integrate Sri Lanka into the Asian supply chain.

Institutional Digitization (Months 1-36): Removing the human interface in government services to kill corruption and speed up economic activity.

Conclusion: The End of National Drift

The fragile stability of our macro-economy and the grim, everyday struggle of our people are two sides of the same coin: a nation caught in the tension of transition. But transition is a bridge, not a destination; it cannot last forever. The “lethargic” performance that has paralyzed our potential for decades must now be forcibly replaced by the “dynamic” performance of a future built on production.

Vietnam’s ascent proves that a nation can rise from the ashes of war to become a global industrial hub within a single generation. For Sri Lanka, the next three years under the NPP represent an absolute “make or break” window. By adopting a Vietnamese-style trade strategy, ending the energy crisis, and honoring the anti-corruption mandate with clinical precision, the government can finally transform the “womb-to-tomb” journey from a desperate struggle for survival into a pathway of prosperity.

The people have provided the mandate; Vietnam has provided the blueprint. The time for hesitant steps and policy ambiguity has passed. This convergence of populist energy and a proven model for success signals that Sri Lanka can no longer afford to drift. We must move with the speed of a nation that understands its own survival is at stake. The NPP has the mandate and the method; now, they must provide the momentum to meet the high expectations of a country that will no longer settle for standing still. Indeed, the NPP can—and must—do exactly that.

*The writer, among many, served as the Special Adviser to the Office of the President of Namibia from 2006 to 2012 and was a Senior Consultant with the UNDP for 20 years, and a Senior Economist with the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (1972-1992). He can be reached at asoka.seneviratne@gmail.com