By Sam Panditha –
Dr Sam Panditha
Appointment of Ranil Wickremesinghe as Prime Minister was a master stroke from Gota/MR during the peak of Aragalaya. MR was chased from Temple Trees, Gota from Mirihana and Gota worried about how far the movement would go. Ranil was made PM, to take the heat from Rajapaksas and divert attention. At the time, there was no plan/option for Gota to resign, and plan was Ranil to face the front, while they safeguard the dynasty for the future. Ranil also saved them in the past from all the Yahapalanaya investigations against the Rajapaksa clan. Ranil becoming eventual Presidential option was never on the cards two months ago.
The massive protests on 9 July, finally led to the unexpected resignation of Gota. Now Ranil became Acting President and some think he will be elected President. HIGHLY UNLIKELY. WHY? The majority of MPs (145) are from Pohottuwa (SLPP). You need only 113 votes to elect the President. The MR clan objective is to accept a temporary defeat, but plan for the next election or the one after. They realise that the “revolution” will only in the short term affect their vote base. But they are confident that given 5 to 10 years and people will forget and still go on to support MR clan. Baby Namal Presidential hopes are not over- just postponed by say 8 years or 13 years. See what happened in the Philippines! Marcos son is the President after Marcos was ousted in 1986 and the son is back in power 35 years later. Marcos was the world record holder of stealing from Government coffers. In Sri Lanka, we have shorter memories (normally some say till the next cricket victory or the next Avurudu celebration!) and not hard to think Namal would be the President in 8 or 13 years.
Aragalaya was led by mostly Urban youth. The most economically affected –the farmers and the rural poor did not join the Aragalaya. They were complacent with the situation and not well politically motivated. They can easily be fooled again. The LP gas crisis, many dying from gas accidents, fuel shortage and many deaths waiting for fuel, would all be forgotten once a decent trickle of gas and fuel is supplied and they can get the supplies staying in a queue for a few hours. They will assign the blame to Covid, Central Bank heist, or the Ukraine war . All will be forgotten come the next election. They did not believe MR looting stories- where are the claimed stolen money, Lamborghinis, රත්තරන් අස්සයා they asked when they voted Gota in. They are the most gullible- believed in the Kelaniya temple “naya” story. Anti-Muslim rhetoric, Dr Shafi Kurunegala sterilisation stories, වඳ කොත්තු, Athuraliye Rathna Thera මාරාන්තික උපවාසය in front of the Temple in Kandy and gave GOTA two thirds majority. When Ranil was made PM, they never chanted “මහා බැංකු හොරා, bring Arjuna Mahendran back”- the key Gota campaign promises.
The political machinery created by MR/Basil is very strong. Though Basil (කපුටා ) is now down, he was a great political strategist (in a corrupt way) and has the “corrupt political brains”, network and the stolen money to come back. The Buddhist clergy is the other MR/Basil support pillar, long cultivated by MR, going to Anuraphapura and Kandy temples on a weekly basis, and broadcasting to the public giving අට පිරිකර gifts (most probably paid by the Government) and getting the blessings as the best Buddhist leader the country has seen. Even at the peak of Aragalaya, Mahanayakas never asked Gota/ Ranil to resign, while the Cardinal and Christian leaders came out strongly with a call to resign. Only in February 2022 that the Mahanayakas bestowed Gota the title “Sri Lankadheeshwara Padma Vibhushana”. MR cultivated the monks along with his Sinhala Buddhist/ Anti-Muslim image. Gave the monks various titles, V8- Pajeros and even salaries as advisors, Poya day Temple trees bana, “sil redi” etc. Hard to change that cultivated image among the poor and the gullible flag carrying “ Sinhala Buddhists”
At best the 2024 Presidential election the votes would be split and no clear winner or front runner. SLPP would perhaps come to 35%, Sajith perhaps 40% and JVP as a new force gaining, but the public is wary about their 1971 and 1988 scary baggage.
The other issue is the solid party machinery Basil created in SLPP. Also the SLPP MPs and Pradeseeya Sabha network were allowed to fiddle funds and steal. MR/Basil were good in that. While they stole billions, they turned a blind eye to lower rank stealing. The Kurunegala Johnny, Kalutara Raththaran, Piliyandala Lokuge and even local level Moratuwa Chairman, Kurunegala Chairman made millions under MR/Basil flag and the SLPP opportunities provided. The mostly new SLPP MPs have similar aspirations. They had only two years as MPs. Covid and economic downturn prevented their avenues to steal and fulfil their key election objective. They see the next three years as the opportunity to make amends and achieve their MP ambition of the Car permit, pension, perks, massive support salary and opportunity to steal development funds allocated to each MP and other bribes. The 145 SLPP MPs know that they have three more years as MPs and need to maximise their earning/ stealing chances. They are not going to give the Presidential Power outside a SLPP party stalwart, with similar objectives.
They also know Ranil Governance style. Even as make shift PM, he got his old clan Sagala Ratnayaka, Ruwan Wijewardenw, Paltha Range Bandara to head various tasks. Ranil as “President”, surely Malik Samarawickrama, Charitha Ratwatte and possibly Paskaralingam (if still fit) would come to roost. Ranil could never think beyond his Royal College 1960 clan as advisors. At least Gota listened to some close friends. GMOA Padeniya fooled him on the Organic farming. Shavendra Silva guided his Covid “response”. Derana Dilith Jayaweera guided his illegal business earning ideas. Ranil is not that- does not listen to anyone. SLPP knows if Ranil is elected their political leverage and earning options are gone. SLPP would not do “hara kiri” and elect Ranil.
The Aragalaya chant is Gota go home! Ranil go home! Not MR and the SLPP clan to go home. Ranil as President, Aragalaya chants and attempts to topple him will continue. With Ranil removed and a new SLPP face like Dulles- they can say he was elected President through constitutional means and he is “clean” and not linked to Gota/ Ranil. Aragalaya will have to play ball.
From SLPP side, Dulles Presidency would allow the 145 MPs to enjoy their perks for three years, avoid any legal actions on Gota/ Basil/MR, re-build their electoral base to overcome Gota damage and hopefully at least 50% to get elected as MPs in 2025, and keep Namal baby Presidential dream alive. The main financial backer of SLPP is MR/Basil the stolen fund base and their political cronies who benefitted financially. As per my earlier article in Colombo Telegraph, MR build “oligarchs” would financially support the revival of SLPP chances to come back to power.
There is also the Lawyer/ political activist Nagananda filed a case in the Supreme Court that comes up on 18 August 2022 . He is challenging Ranil’s appointment as a National List MP. Nagananda case states that Elections Commissioner sent a letter to the UNP on 7 August 2020, informing the national list seat allocated to the UNP and requesting the nomination with the deadline 15 August 2020. Due to UNP in-fighting UNP letter nominating Ranil as the UNP National list MP was only sent on 16 June 2021, 10 months later. Technically speaking, a basic and serious case that would lead to the cancellation of Ranil appointment as an MP, then his appointment as Acting President and then the nomination as a Presidential candidate in the Parliament. We do not know how independent the Court system in Sri Lanka has operated in the past and now with the change. There are allegations that the Court system was politicised by Gota. Let us see on 18 August case date or a postponement influenced by Ranil allowing time for him to contest as President with the hope of the case becoming null and void under Presidential immunity.
Let us not forget if all MPs vote you just need 113 votes. SLPP has 145 seats. Here comes H.E. the President Dulles Alahapperuma!!!!
chiv / July 19, 2022
Sam thanks again for exposing retarded Lanka politics and immoral voters who are responsible for such lunacy. We are unique indeed. 1) The whole system including politicians, voting public, Theros, Maha Sanga, Media, Judiciary (in past) are corrupted. Majority are racist too. 2) In Feb honored as SL Padma Vibushana (what ever the F that means) and within months accused as thief and chased out of country. 3) Lankan memory is not just short but grossly lacking. Otherwise how can anyone explain the 75 years of Family Kleptocracy. 3) Buddhist clergy propaganda reminds me of Chimpa doing the same right here. (anti Muslim, Shafi saga, archeological findings, SB myth, public stunts of Ganasara —-) 4) Maha Sanga is corrupted, lavishly bribed by Rajapaksas and opportunist. At the end of Aragalaya shows up to claim credibility by issuing Fatwa. 5) Those SLPP goons, on Rajapaksa pay list were behind recent violence.
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chiv / July 20, 2022
Problems exist all over the world ( the same old excuse / denial may provide some personal gratification and nothing else) but have any “highly literate” Silly Lankan ever tried explaining to a non Sri Lankan 1) how we elected brothers from the same Mafia family as President, PM, FM, DM, —–2) How few families were elected election after election for 75 years 3) How we managed to not just become bankrupt, but no money, no foreign exchange, not enough locally produced food, no medicines but somehow were clueless just a few months ago 4) If Rajapaksas were so bad, what was the reason to keep them in power for TWO decades. 5) Lanka is just the size of Kerala and not India for vast number of villagers to be so naive, lacking competency and mental capacity to elect their leaders. 4) It’s just the inborn racism in them to sacrifice future for instant pleasure, in others suffering
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Sunil Abeyratne / July 19, 2022
Sadly, the uneducated rural poor forms the majority of the voter base.
Namal becoming the President in eight to ten years is certainly a possibility. But, a successful outcome of the Aragalaya would be a complete overhaul of the existing political structures with power sharing.
It is very likely that Ranil will be elected (that would be in the interest of the Rajapakshas) as the President and he would simply continue with what all politicians have done in the past.
I sincerely hope that I am wrong!
What is sinister is that the Sri Lankans would lose ownership of critical infrastructure (will be sold to pay back loans in a fire sale).
It is likely that many US based asset managers may have already bought Sri Lankan dollar debt at a discount (perhaps in the vicinity of 25 cents in the dollar). This is exactly what happened to Argentina. The US will stand behind the US-based asset managers and part of the IMF loans will be used to settle these loans albeit with a haircut.
Oh how easy it is to manipulate the rural poor!
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SJ / July 19, 2022
Sunil
Sri Lanka has a higher literacy rate than Nepal. But Nepal has made more reasoned political choices– even better than countries of the West where the media manipulate the electorate.
Communalism is not exclusive to Sri Lanka alone in South Asia. The executive presidency, the 17-year dictatorship of the UNP and the civil war have had a strong negative impact on the population.
People do not vote on communal grounds alone. There was and still is high regard for MR as the one who defeated terrorism, even among well educated non-racist Sinhalese.
The rural voter has better sense that many contributors to these pages who spew communal venom. Also the rural voter is less cynical than some of the urban literate.
In recent decades voting in the country has been considerably negative. It is more an expression of rejection than of acceptance.
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Sunil Abeyratne / July 20, 2022
SJ
Thanks.
You might remember how the electorate voted to support JR’s referendum to ‘not to hold parliamentary elections’.
Firstly, JR’s actions were tantamount to subversion. He wanted to continue with 5/6th majority that allowed him to wield absolute power.
Secondly, voters were morons to reject the opportunity to elect their representatives.
Logically, it was ‘legal-subversion’ (an apt oxymoron to characterise his actions).
What hope do we have when our voters are so easily manipulated?
To characterise ‘voting has been more an expression of rejection than of acceptance’ is to credit the voters with some intelligence,
Electing Ranil as the president also falls into the category of ‘ legal-subversion’ with no consequences because MPs are the executors!
When ordinary people protest (their legal right), then deploy security forces to suppress the people with emergency power. Protestors were shot.
Do you think Sri Lanka could ever recover with the kind of voters we have?
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SJ / July 21, 2022
“Secondly, voters were morons to reject the opportunity to elect their representatives.”
Sunil, our voters are no worse than the voters in the US and UK– judging by their recent choices.
JRJ had tight control over the media, and the opposition had not got its act together.
JRJ had just won the Presidential election before he tried this ploy. The cynicism of politicians is worse than we think. The TULF was dragging its feet to the very end, and Gamini Navaratne, Editor of Saturday Review (published from Jaffna) at the time had to constantly shame them until the TULF changed their mind.
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Did not any of the parliamentary opposition parties have the foresight to visualize what would happen if an SLPP dominated house were to elect the President?
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Sajith made himself look a right real a** by withdrawing, joining hands with Dullas (whose candidature itself raises questions), and making a deal with the TNA.
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Ajith / July 19, 2022
Sunil,
“the uneducated rural poor forms the majority of the voter base.”
It is sad that you charcterise that majority of the rural voter base as uneducated that is why they elect the richest families to govern this country. The innocense of the rural population, lack of facilities for education, employment, and exploitation of the rich, religious leaders and politicians are the barriers for them to make own decision. The fact is that our politicians have been trained and educated from British and they follow the same plitics of divide and rule. Communalism is a common policy not only with UNP, but also with SLFP. Even the so called leftist who were powerful in politics couldn’t escape from communal policies. It is the same in other asian countries but communalism along with corruption affected more than other countries. There is no difference between SWRDs, Jayawardena’s, Rajapaksas, Ranils. Ranil is happy to destroy UNP and join Rajapaksas because Sajith a low cast should not come to power.
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Sunil Abeyratne / July 20, 2022
chiv
I have responded to SJ with my views on the Sri Lankan voters.
I hope the Aragalaya would have had some impact on the voters, which is yet to be tested.
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Sunil Abeyratne / July 20, 2022
Ajith,
Thanks.
Your response provides an explanation as to why the rural poor voters are who they are. (My comment was just an observation without going into the reasons behind).
Yes, I agree with your views!
Caste is a dying trait with the Sinhalese and I would imagine it is the same with the Tamil society.
R Premadasa becoming the president was a defining moment.
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a14455 / July 21, 2022
Actually R Premedasa becoming the president was the first time I realized how much caste mattered in Sri Lanka among the upcountry Sinhalese. I was baffled by the hatred they had towards the man. I was just out of uni at the time and the vitriol was quite amazing. Until then you could say the consciousness of Caste was very low or nonexistent in my world.
I wonder if that had something to do with this surprise of the RW presidency.
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SJ / July 21, 2022
Sunil
“Caste is a dying trait with the Sinhalese and I would imagine it is the same with the Tamil society.”
Caste as hierarchy is weakening, but as collective identity it is still strong, even among the Sinhalese.
Caste among Tamils (especially Jaffna Tamils) thrives even abroad.
Open discrimination is hard here for it confronts the law. But privately the mind is dominated by it.
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chiv / July 20, 2022
Ajith, obviously not all 6.9 million naive, just born, uneducated poor villagers. If anyone have doubt go to local English media and read the racist comments (may be the uneducated Lankan villager is still fluent in English ). The same villager after going abroad for living still remains racist. And here in CT as SJ says we have plenty educated, “highly literate” racists. DENIAL is much worse than racism.
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chiv / July 20, 2022
Ajith, fact is even the poor household carry at least one mobile/smart phone among each family, with unlimited access to educate them selves. It’s our educated who have run out of excuses. According to media more than a million assembled in Colombo during last up rise. Many came from periphery and villages. How illiterate and naive a villager can be, when deciding to participate in Aragalaya ?? Reason when there is no food / fuel, racism takes a back seat.
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leelagemalli / July 21, 2022
NR will have to live that long to be one the president in 10 years.
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Now almost everyone hates to anyone in that mlechcha family/ people would eat kiribath if MR would die tomorrow/ the queuing up will be more what we got to see for Dhammika Paniy.
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🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔
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Chandrametha / July 19, 2022
Rajapaksa brothers and sons easily defeat Ferdinand Marcos as world leader of Embeselling state coffers. Bloodless revolution brought about by, thanks to aragalaya, should not be allowed to be hollow. At the same time frustrated young people whose future is on a knife edge under Rajapaksas, do not want more of the same under RW. After all he is the 5th brother of Rajapaksa clan and he will continue to protect Rajapaksas and obstruct any attempt by decent politicians to bring them to Justice. During his premiership between 2016-2019 he made no attempt to bring any of the Rajapaksas to justice for murders, disappearances and stealing state assets. Nor have we forgotten RW was the Master of Dungeon of Batalanda. During the few days as acting president, nation have witnessed his intention for oppressive measures, by giving orders to military and declaring emergency for no apparent reason in the disguise of restoring order. I just wonder how he acquired the image of “Mr Clean” when there are so many skeletons in his cupboard. What the nation need is independent Judiciary and investigative powers without political interference and fresh elections as soon as it is pragmatic and feasible.
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Pon Lanka / July 20, 2022
Rani is a real fox who changes his policies to be in a position with personal ambitions and not at all bothered by others around him, which is J.R. mentality that brought down the U.N.P. without any seat in the last election. Mahinda is also the same character that brought him to be cornered by his siblings and others in his party, such as Prof. G.L.Peris, Dallas Allahalperuma and many more parliamentarians of his party who joined hands with the opposition to defeat Ranil, Mahinda’s combination to be defeated on the 20 th.
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a14455 / July 20, 2022
I as a Sri Lankan Citizen living abroad fully support the new President Ranil W. I hope and pray he can bring the much needed stability to the country. and more than all I hope he gets the full and unconditional support of the Sri Lankan Military. (Which clearly did not for the last president) , and nips this insurrection (the so called “Aragalaya”) in the bud. (It may be not in the bud at this point may be at the sapling state) Before it becomes a complete unmitigated disaster.
I think the first thing he should do is to replace all the military leaders’ defense secretary with ones who he will know will really support him. The old war’s heroes have become zeroes.
I wonder who he will appoint as a prime minister, but I think he will appoint the right one. I believe the financial reforms are of the utmost priority at this point. but if he feels it is necessary to enact political reforms that should be his choice.
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