By Vishwamithra –

“Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.” ~ Albert Einstein

Ideal planning is planning for every contingency. One simply cannot leave anything for granted. Even the minutest detail need to be accounted for and each item, large or small, needs meticulous scrutiny and forecast and provided for. That is ultimate planning. A small economy such as Sri Lanka cannot fall victim to panic. It cannot shrink into a cocoon and hide itself praying for ‘something’ would spring up to save it.

In the real world, unreal phenomena do not appear as palpable and tangible. Dreamers and partisan thinkers might seek refuge in an imaginary utopia. The ‘art of the deal’ is becoming increasingly illusory. A man who ran six private companies to bankruptcy and left his creditors high and dry is proving beyond any shade of doubt that he is simply not qualified to run the country that he was elected as the Chief Executive. Lost in his own self-engrossment, Donald trump is playing and toying with average American lives. Erosion of the middleclass, which is the prime mover in any economy, whether closed or open, is assured of prosperity and abundance by these maddeningly ill-thought of tariff impositions. Am I panicking? I don’t know. But, frankly speaking and given the way the world markets reacted to the whispers of the Trump tariffs, I would rather know than not know. Uncertainty, the unkind enemy of all and every earthly matter, is no option to live with.

At the same time, America is not forgiven for not knowing that it was coming. At the Presidential Election campaign, Donald Trump propagated that he was intent on introducing this cowardly monster to the working s of the American economy. America, the Mecca of capitalism, is being subjected to a measure that is usually practiced by impoverished countries imprisoned within a closed economy.

What should bother a small country like Sri Lanka is not what caused Trump or his Republican cohorts to adopt such universally destructive policy such as tariff-imposition. But AKD and his government  have a totally different challenge to confront. They have to go back to their proverbial drawing board.  The real terror would be whether they would be tempted to go on a reverse gear to the failed Marxist economic theories and engage in shortsighted practices of closed economies, to be precise, of the Sirimavo Bandaranaike model.

Donald Trump delivered on his election promise of tariff-imposition. Can AKD and the NPP deliver on lowering prices of household items? At least in the short run, it would be impossible to even think about such a socioeconomic-friendly occurrence. This is one moment of truth that AKD must confront with his patriotic stance rather than with his political hat on. He needs to shed his political garb aside and deliver a socioeconomically sound response. That is the posture a true statesman would adopt. The next elections have to be relegated to occupy a back seat; being caught in the middle of IMF regulations, bringing the Rajapaksa culprits before the law and testing the limits of patience of the electorate on the matter of Easter Day massacre would not quench the hunger and thirst of poor farmer families. The government has yet to deliver on its basic pledges. Spiraling cost of living is not yet contained; delivery of corrupt politicians before the rule of law is dragging on at snail’s pace and transformational policies on education, health and agriculture are being awaited. The challenge before AKD and his government is expanding, whether it would reach the unattainability point is anyone’s guess.

Employment, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and inflation, the three fundamentals of any economy, do not present a promising end. The election honeymoon is over; the people are yet to be tested. Would they respond favorably at the forthcoming local government elections, or would they look for alternatives, so early and so quickly? ‘It’s the economy stupid‘ argument is not merely an electioneering slogan. It’s an authentic expression of a socioeconomic  reality. Engagement in theoretical debate and semantics would not go very far. Articulation of one political stance against another would not put food on the table. In a country in which more than fifty percent (50%) is living in poverty conditions does not present itself as a friendly park for entertainment.

Donald Trump promised a change in the status quo and he is well and truly on his way to that end. Whether his destructive ends would be acceptable to the greater majority of Americans, Trump’s narcissistic conduct and unintelligent handling of each situational instance may have hurt the Republican Party in particular and the whole country in general. By initiating a global trade war, not necessarily with those countries that are in the ‘advanced’ category, but exclusively in the assemblage of not-so-advanced, Donald Trump is still dancing, but on thin ice. The American electorate could be extraordinarily vulnerable to the vagaries of inflation, unemployment and daily cost of living. When they are forced to put off their vacation trips to Hawaii and other European cities for short of cash in their bank accounts, when their jobs are no more secure and when their children’s gymnastic classes and baseball lessons cannot be financed, they could very fiercely rise against the Trump regime.

Cult leaderships are usually cultivated by men and women whose sales skills are extraordinary and cunning and utterly dishonest and fake. Donald Trump belongs to that exclusive gallery of men and women. But Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) is not such a charlatan of a political leader. He came across the Sri Lankan horizon as one of authenticity and honesty. His political acumen is beyond question and his leadership skills are being tested each day by his fellow countrymen. But how can AKD go across the tariff barrier and still offer a politically acceptable solution to the average Lankan?

The solution may be residing on some totally fresh meadow. Can AKD originate discussions amongst his immediate neighbors, India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Malaysia, Thailand and above all China and confront the issue with a collective mind and a collective economic stance while sustaining her sovereignty and independence? Do we have amongst us a team of negotiators, both in the private and public sectors, who have the intellectual and physical wherewithal to bargain with each other and offer economically and politically acceptable resolution of this complex issue of tariff-imposition by the USA.

We have to deal with the callousness of the infamous ‘deal maker’ Donald Trump, yet deal with him with dignity and decorum. I’m sure India, Bangladesh and even Pakistan could be thinking in terms of such a collective approach rather than getting entangled in bilateral talks and negotiations with shrewd and crude American Trumpians. AKD is beyond such mundane mindsets. His acumen has proven to be above par and his will and ability to sustain a complex and comprehensive  session of geopolitical talks will be tested in this scheme of things. But he himself will not know until he tries. When everything else has failed and having been submerged in the seas of unknown superpower economic impositions, AKD would have no alternative other than thinking anew and acting afresh.

Does he have in his bureaucracy and administration and advisory councils who have the ability and capacity and also the tact and strategic mindsets to be engaged in such a sophisticated process of negotiating with our neighbors. I am more than sure that we do have among our varied tiers of administration and in the private sector who could achieve the desired results. The results may not be perfect; they might not meet one hundred percent (100%) of our side of the chips. But arriving at acceptable goals is not in the realm of the impossible.

But make it happen. If there is any politician who could initiate an economic treaty among the interested countries in the region, especially in the aftermath of the Trump tariffs, it is undoubtedly Anura Kumara Dissanayake. In the pursuit of economic prosperity for all citizens and in the context of the rising demands of a superpower such as America, AKD and the NPP have to come to terms with a new agenda; he will have to set aside, among others, political retribution and relatively minor matters merely of political value. Which are those matters, I will leave it to AKD and NPP leadership. Enduring the short term effects and withstanding and sustaining a longstanding resolution of the immediate issues of tariff-related costs of living should take priority. Re-prioritizing of national issues, whether the Trump tariffs were already in place or not, is a must.

Once again, for the umpteenth time, AKD’s metal is being tested. Experienced or not, whether he is surrounded by real doers or simple lotus-eaters, he has to deliver. The problem that has been thrown at him by the American President is no ordinary one. Instead of trying to go around it like an amateur, he has to show, not only his own electorate, but also his geopolitical brothers and sisters that he also can think big. Trying to form a coalition amongst equal members of that fraternity is a challenge and also an opportunity. AKD must face the problem and turn it into an opportunity and a challenge. Such opportunities and challenges come very rarely in one’s life and in a nation’s journey towards perfection.

*The writer can be reached at vishwamithra1984@gmail.com