By Dayan Jayatilleka –
Dr. Dayan Jayatilleka
A common opposition candidate is commonly regarded as a good idea but on second glance isn’t necessarily so. It can be a good idea but only in one set of circumstances. That is if the common candidate is capable of securing the largest number of votes against the incumbent, thereby ensuring a real race for the presidency, which can restore some balance to the political system also by acting as a springboard for an opposition victory at the parliamentary election or a referendum.
Thus the real question that should be posed is who the candidate would be who can get the most votes. On the surface it would seem that this would be the candidate who can secure the endorsement of the largest number of political parties and civil society organizations. But this isn’t necessarily true.
The best Opposition candidate would be a common candidate if he/she can draw on the support of opposition parties and groupings which can really bring in votes. If these parties, organizations and personalities are mere factions they will not add much to the vote bank of the opposition candidate.
Moreover an Opposition candidate who cannot secure the main vote base of the opposition while he/she can draw in smaller vote bases, would be losing on the roundabouts what he /gains on the swings.
Simply put, the selection of a common opposition candidate should not depend on how long the list of endorsements is but on how accurately he represents the actual ratios and balances of strength in the opposition ranks.
This selection depends upon the realization that the United National Party remains, actually and potentially, the largest Oppositional formation by a very long chalk indeed. This is not an argument on my part, for a purely UNP candidate. But it certainly is an argument for a candidacy that accurately reflects the leading role of the UNP and that the UNP is the main force of the opposition.
No other party or combination of parties, civil society groupings and personalities can come anywhere close to matching the UNP in terms of votes.
Furthermore, no candidate who loses/fails to mobilize the fullest potential UNP vote, can hope to compensate for it by securing the support of the Chandrika led SLFP dissidents, the JHU and Ven. Maduluwawe Sobitha.
The current search for a common candidate is predicated on a platform of the abolition of the executive presidency. It thus seeks to impose upon the masses a concern that is not their own, and is that of a few urban factions.
A credible common candidate would construct a political platform from the bottom up, giving vent to the grievances and aspirations of the masses. If anyone thinks that the central aspiration of the Sri Lankan voter is the abolition of the executive presidency i.e. to act as electoral cannon fodder for Chandrika’s old slogan of a ‘constitutional revolution’, the election results will prove them ridiculously out of touch.
In a country where 75% of the populace is Sinhala, any viable electoral strategy must be based on “winning the majority of the majority” (as Sirisena Cooray used to say). By extension, any smart choice of a common candidacy must be based on picking someone who can win the majority of the majority of Opposition voters, i.e. someone who can win all actual and potential UNP votes, bringing out those who have stayed home because of Ranil and their own patriotic sentiment. Someone, in short, who can get the UNP’s 40% base vote and more.
Here, the target of 40+ means that the Plus must be recognized as smaller than the 40% base vote. The common candidate cannot be someone who can bring in the plus, through endorsements from the JHU, CBK, SF and Ven. Sobitha, while being unsure of securing the UNP’s 40% base vote. A common candidate cannot be one who risks trading in the 40% for the unspecified Plus which could turn out to be marginal.
Ok, so how is the common candidate to be selected? One must now move from the realm of speculation and debate to an objective and concrete mechanism and process.
The indispensable step is to ascertain to the highest possible degree of accuracy, which personality can bring out the largest number of UNP votes. This can be established by two methods, both of which I suggest should be utilized.
The first is to commission an independent public opinion poll or market research survey. This should not only present a choice of personalities but also of issues (such as the demonized executive presidency).
The second and more important method is one that should be used the day after President Rajapaksa issues the gazette on the forthcoming presidential election. This is the convening of all elected representatives (parliamentary, provincial council and pradesheeya sabha) of the UNP and the selection by secret ballot of the candidate. At the very least it should be a secret ballot of the UNP parliamentary group. The person who wins this ballot is obviously the one who can bring out – and thus bring in –the maximum number of UNP votes. A common candidacy must be built in concentric circles, around this democratic choice by the overwhelmingly pre-eminent party of the Opposition, namely the UNP, of the most indispensable single UNP personality.
Dev / November 7, 2014
Are you writing for the sake of writing and to remind everyone you are still around?
There is nothing new here !
Given that you have already shown your hand for Mahinda, any advise from you is a poisoned chalice that is best spit out !
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Sun / November 7, 2014
Dont worry friend, the man DJ behaves today as if he became a [Edited out].
He thought the oppsition would stay weakened as had been at the very begining, but to our luck, to this day, inceasing oppo parties rise up, day to another it is becoming a reality to us we thought ealier no hope at all in this country since ballige puthas have rooted and looted it to all ruins for their political survivial. This DJ was part of them even today, he would not risk to call a spade a spade … even if he would be hit pants down – lately the bugger DJ should have shared that he would support Raja and Premadasa but not Ranil. For his childhood hatreds made towards a decent man like RW – DJ has been seeking the revenge today. Else, I cant get it easily. DJ is made to be most selfish diplomat of the nation. What the bugger has done since 2009 is only hang on with the dogs again and intending to get posted to a new destination. But the [Edited out] who has no vision and wisdom would never allow any half or full experienced men and women to run the diplomacy since they are not his representatives. His representives should have the baggae boy and thughish nature as Sajine the faekel has been having.
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Native Vedda / November 8, 2014
Dev
How about using the tried and tested method to select a common canditate? Here is the chldren counting rhyme:
Eeny, meeny, miny, moe,
Catch a tiger by the toe.
If he hollers, let him go,
Eeny, meeny, miny, moe.
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Dev / November 8, 2014
I agree, that is a good way to pick.
The way the “contenders” are all talking and talking, by the time they decide Mahinda would have won…..
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MNZ / November 8, 2014
What we need is not a Referendum but a Miracle!
If only the UNP, TNA, JVP, SLMC, JHU, Ven Sobitha and SF can all agree to a common candidate, then without a doubt MR and the Family will be history.
We wish all of the above opposition players Divine guidance and inspiration to achieve this Miracle!!
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Amarasiri / November 8, 2014
Dayan Jayatilleka –
How To Pick The Common Candidate?
Do an I.Q. test. see if they are functional.
I.Q. and real-life functioning
http://www.paulcooijmans.com/intelligence/iq_ranges.html
National IQ Scores – Country Rankings
http://www.photius.com/rankings/national_iq_scores_country_ranks.html
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EW Golding / November 9, 2014
Can’t you guess why he is writing? Read again carefully.
He can’t declare himself as openly rooting for Sajith Premadasa but this is what this piece is all about.
DJ’s choices are obvious.
First choice: MR
Second choice: SP
(Both he hopes will give him a job after the elections).
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Amarasiri / November 9, 2014
Dr. Dayan Jayatilleka
RE: How To Pick The Common Candidate
From your point of view ., go for the highest Shilling index.
Right now Mr. Mahinda Rajapaksa has the highest Shilling Index. Can other beat that number?
Remember, the mean I.Q., of Sri Lankans is 79.
National IQ Scores – Country Rankings
http://www.photius.com/rankings/national_iq_scores_country_ranks.html
Rank
——– Country
———————– %
————-
1 Singapore 108
2 South Korea 106
3 Japan 105
4 Italy 102
27 Kenya 80
28 Guatemala 79
28 Sri Lanka 79
28 Zambia 79
29 Congo, Democratic Republic of the 78
29 Nepal 78
29 Qatar 78
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Paul / November 7, 2014
‘The first is to commission an independent public opinion poll or market research survey’
Are you crazy? Do you think anyone has the time or inclination for this? They are all in it for what they can get out of it. In any case, nothing is independent in Sri Lanka, everything is corrupt.
Suppose a common candidate is chosen and wins. Two minutes after his or her victory, the back stabbing, lying, horse trading will start as his or her supporters fall apart. Its like your jockstraps giving way machan :)
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justice / November 7, 2014
a ‘common candidate’ by secret ballot is a good suggestion, but a ‘secret vote’ will be opposed by more than half the vote base suggested.
More importantly, the election depends on the implementation of all Election Laws to the very letter.
This will not happen, as the directives of the Elections Commissioner are never carried out by the police. The army is not under his control and its writ pervades nationwide. Transport and counting of ballots are not foolproof. The state media, state resources like vehicles, state employees’ services etc. will be unlawfully utilised.
In a past election, the Elections Commissioner went “missing” during the 24 hours of Counting of Ballots. His wife and daughter too went missing during the same period.
Sri lanka has never had a fully free and fair election since independence – every election has been flawed.
Already it is rumoured that illegal & unfair means are being prepared to contest the presidential election including hologram projections of the president (as Mody did in the indian election) at suitable venues – this will be a ‘first’ in sri lanka and will be sure to gather many votes of those undecided, in addition to cutouts and posters etc.
There is no ‘level playing field’ as happened in the recent US elections.
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Rufus / November 7, 2014
Dayan
Your faviurite Sajith has been approached by several UNP MPs after Ranil made it known that he is willing to step aside. THey said “Sir, now you must come forward as the Leader has agreed to step down”. Sajith, who was saying that he will contest if Ranil does not, has blackguarded the MPs saying he is not ready. Now, Sajith has lost the support of those MPs too. All this is well known in Colombo. Let’s put forward Karu J. He is the best bet now. Sajith is a funk.
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Jayantha / November 7, 2014
The best Common Cabdidate that I can think of who will have the support of all including DJ, is Jeina Madam.
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AVB / November 7, 2014
What a brilliant suggestion by this 4% Political Analyst,.. public opinion poll and UNP party secret ballot. Ha Ha ;-( ..
How about advising your idol, MR, to do public opinion poll to find out the best time for the next election instead of depending on cunning astrologers???? This is 21st century…
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DesperateS / November 7, 2014
How to pick the common candidate must not be coming from your thoughts, you as one who behaves as if you have no thoughts and minds of an average man of the soceity today.
You the guys who sat with dogs, even today have not noticed the problems of the ticks. That can take many more months you to be become normal, so please be away and go out of the sights of the agonious folks – else, you will face it real as I feel it.
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park / November 7, 2014
The requirement of the day is a “National Government”. Under Mahinda Rajapakse the entire democratic structure of the country has been destroyed. Since no one is going to support a national government, it is important to select a President who will be neutral to all parties. In order to do so the common candidate should not be from UNP or any other existing political party. The common candidate should contest under a separate symbol uniting all parties including all opposition parties who are opposed to Rajapakse. In my opinion Chandrika is the best person to contest as a common candidate. It should be kept in mind that this arrangement is for the Presidential election only not for Parliamentary election.
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Dr.Rajasingham Narendran / November 7, 2014
Thoughts worthy of consideration by the UNP. The 40 % must indeed be secured and the plus cultivated.
On constitution reform, the manifesto of the opposition must advocate the appointment of a Commission of eminent persons to study and propose a new constitution after deep study and wide consultations, within one year.
I am sure this will make sense to the people and convince them that there will be minimal political fiddling and tailoring to fit the politicians needs. The main thrust of the manifesto should be on how Sri Lanka will be set on the right and righteous course, and how the pains of the poor will be assuaged.
Dr.Rajasingham Narendran
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gamini / November 7, 2014
All said and done, all these pundits will be in for a surprise when all come to know who the contenders are for the Presidential Election on the day of Nomination. The three cornered fight will make known who the winner is long before the day of election. If there are any others they will be also ran only.
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alex f / November 7, 2014
can’t believe DJ actually wrote something that is so self-evident. Yes sri lanka is a majortiarian state where the UNP needs to put forward someone as chauvinistic and racist as Mahinda to win. They DJ will be happy as sinhala nationalism is safe. I think everyone knows that Mahinda going is not the end of Sri Lankan racism.
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aratai / November 7, 2014
.
I propose DJ as the common candidate.
:-)
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Native Vedda / November 8, 2014
aratai
“I propose DJ as the common candidate.”
So you want Mahinda to win.
DJ would vote for MR.
I don’t think the wife and children would vote for him.
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Dev / November 8, 2014
Well maybe he can get a “victory” like he did in 2009 defeating the “imperialist” forces :-)
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Puhul Dosi / November 7, 2014
Machan Dayan, did you put a few good shots of Pol before you wrote this bloody article, men? There is not a single reference to the “I did this and I succeeded at the UNHRC sessions in 2009” type of narcissism. Despite the light touch of this article, it is a good change of tac to remove ‘self’ from what you write…. we like to see real political analysis in future articles please, not the usual crap praising Tamara, Rajiva and to massage Rajapaksa’s ego.
That is why I asked the question!
Oh, by the way, you are really bonkers if you think an independent public opinion poll (or market survey)… how the bloody hell do you think you can get a reliable poll of the people in the rural ‘hinterland’ by asking a few fairly complex questions?
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shankar / November 9, 2014
puhul dosai
“Oh, by the way, you are really bonkers if you think an independent public opinion poll (or market survey)… how the bloody hell do you think you can get a reliable poll of the people in the rural ‘hinterland’ by asking a few fairly complex questions?”
You think that the masses are asses,but these are the asses who will decide who governs this country as they far outnumber puhul dosai’s.
So dayan is right when he says to conduct a poll among them because that feed back will be very useful.The questions need not be complex as you presume.First question,who would you vote for?If the answer is mahinda, Second one,why would you vote for him?is there anyone of these that you would vote for instead of mahinda(give them list of ten candidates ranil,sajith,karu,harin,chandrika,sobitha,anura kumar dissanayaka,fonseka,former chief justices shiranee and sarath silva.
If the answer to the first question is someone in this list,then still you get the feed back on the best opposition candidate.
If the answer to the first question,i don’t want to vote,you can still give the list to see whether they would change their mind by picking someone.if they don’t and still refuse to vote,you can ask them what is the reason and what would drag them to the polling booth if the opposition puts out some worthwile policies.
So these are questions that even a donkey can answer,so what are you talking about complexity.Only your name seems to be complex here.
instead of the opposition endlessly meeting each other,it is better if they meet the people and get the feedback.The only feedback they must be getting now is their own self opinionated views.
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Mahen De Silva / November 7, 2014
It is no secret that Dayan J would like to promote Sajith Premadasa at any cost. I am confused as for what purpose he is doing it. Sajith does not promote Dayan’s belief, that devolution should be given to Tamils and their grievances have to be recognized. Sajith is playing the communal card and identified with Sinhalese extremists just like Rajapakse’s. While UNP members, Ranil, Karu, Mangala, and Ravi Karunanayake together with JVP are highlighting serious e human right violations/ misuse of power/nepotism/ suppression of media freedom by Rajapakse regime, over the years Sajith Premadasa adopted a very soft attitude towards the Rajapakse’s. Sajith’s energy was more bent on attacking his own colleagues than this dictatorial regime. His behavior could be easily be interpreted as having an understanding with Rajapakse’s. Whatever said and done I appreciate that Ranasinghe Premadasa did not play communal politics. It is great if Dayan can address above issues when he tries to promote Sajith Premadasa in UNP next time
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Muheed Jeeran / November 8, 2014
I think your calculation wrong Mr Dayan!!! First you must understand that the Sri Lankan voters are polarized and Common Broader Opposition Alliance Needed. I always suggested since the end of Western Provincial Council Election that we must formed an Alliance and Common Candidate must be born through the Alliance but I would always give more preference to UNP Candidate in the Alliance as they have more Voter bank in the Alliance than any other political party. We must form a council of Leaders Board through the Alliance and representation number of seats in the board should be given based on the party’s strength and support they have. Say example this leaders board to 15 members. Council of Leaders Board members should have the power to make important decision of abolishing executive presidency, implement good governance in a equal way to make sure you fulfill the promise of bring back democracy. Common Candidate must become more answerable to the Leaders Board on Implementing good governance which is more important. Then they can develop the economy when they have good governance is working well in a country.
And also you must understand UNP voters are not staying at home which is totally wrong. I can activist are with the party and some are joined with other party. Party Activists are not millions in any party to make great election result change. It is the floating voters who are the major players in a political game who can change the game any time they want. We must understand that the floating voters preferred Incumbent President in the past due to his role as leading the war as a President but now his war slogan is getting unpopular and he failed deliver the solution to the kitchen of every house hold so he is in a difficult situation to attract the ordinary voters. Therefore this time they will play and create a very catchy nationalist slogan which Ranil have less chance to counter attack and due to that reason he is out of subject to be a formidable contender against the incumbent president. Well someone who have supported and strengthen the President during the war time have more chance than Ranil.
I will give you a simple example that Vote bank of every party always stay with them which is known as Kepuwath Kola or Nill or Rathu . Its the floating voters who becomes the piece who make the check mate against the king in any elections.
We need to understand that two major political parties in Sri Lanka are SLFP and UNP. They are still having their vote base support it is always between 25 to 30%. Prime Minister Sirimavo Bandaranaike had become extraordinarily unpopular. Her economic policies had led to industrial growth and self-reliance, but was insufficient to overcome unemployment. UNP won a landslide with 140 seats and SLFP won only 8 seats. But in popular vote they still got 29% and UNP got nearly 51% of the popular vote. So even in an unpopular time of any two major political parties they can have between 25 to 30%. and with other minor political parties support they can increase their power base to 50 by either side and yeas MR team had the same popularity similar to 1977.
Based on the analysis above UNP voters are with them always thats what they are standing between 25 to 30% that will never go down even you have a normal candidate comes from UNP. Floating voters having the issue of weak opposition thats how they see the opposition now.
So biggest challenge of any future major election is how to get the Floating voters to opposition side specially sinhalese Budhist voters. In Sri Lanka 70% of voters are Sinhalese Buddhist Voters (I am including catholic Sinhalese here) and Opposition needs only 30% from that crowd to win this election and also this election should be a two horse race which is also very important.
Recent Baddulla election results shows that the minority voters have backed heavily with UNP but Sinhalese Voters are slowly sliding towards opposition but still they are moving not exactly with UNP alone as the Southern and Western Province showed that analysis.
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Thalaivar / November 8, 2014
Vigneswaran should be the common candidate.
All others will lose.
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Kali / November 8, 2014
Thalaivar
How do you come up with such theories. Even Kathirgamar the so called Tamil trapped in a Tamilbody with a Tamil D.ck with a sinhalese soul couldnt rise to the ocassion and how do you expect Wigneswaran ( not Vigneswaran you Sinkalam)to pull it off.
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Upul / November 8, 2014
And the answer is ………………………………………waiting..waiting…waiting..still waiting…coming soon…now coming….Sajith Modawanse Premadasa…This is what DJ was struggling to put out but because he gets lambasted each time he does it, he was fighting shy this time.
Every intelligent person with a knowledge of Sri Lankan politics knows that the Opposition needs each other IF they are to change the prevailing status quo. We the two-cent contributors also know it, even though in moments of brevity, seemingly plausible theories are offered for and against prevailing circumstances.
The UNP cannot and will not win again (EVER) without the Opposition camps united. The SLFP will not outlast the Rajapakse disaster unless someone with ‘balls’ steps up and forcibly takes the reins away from the brothers! The JVP is blessed with educated and eloquent leaders who manage to paint themselves into a RED corner instead of broadening their reach. Until they learn their lesson, they will remain a 5% party in the best of times. By the way has anyone asked the JVP boys where all the Sahodarees are? The TULF/TNA will be arguing until the Seth Samuduram project is done, and they will still be debating who the best Tamil representative is, instead of doing their duty to their people. SLMC must be taught a hard lesson by the Muslims of the East. No one outside the East gives a hoot to Hakeems lies and stories. They know he is a slimy politician and treat him thus. Muzammil and his wife are simply looking for a break, between casinos.
In this fluid scenario the Rajapakses willl stir the pot at every opportunity. If there is nothing to stir, they will create some smoke at least. The recent Mangala stories are an example.
Ranil, Karu, Mangala, Ravi, Malik are all hoping the Rajapakses make the first move so they can counter it. Unfortunately for the Rajapakses’ they have to announce the elections and the opposition can wait until then. That is why Ranil and Co are keeping quiet and letting the idiots have their day in the sun!
It will be a new day IF the UNP leadership manages to convene a meeting of all opposition groups under the patronage of Rev. Sobitha and announce the name of a unifying candidate, under a common symbol and a SMALL but SIGNIFICANT list of objectives(also known as a manifesto). I did not use the word because these have never been followed and have not been worth the expense to print them.
If there is no elections announced in the next two weeks, we will not have any until the Pope and left our shores.
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Sensible Thinking / November 8, 2014
Too many common candidates.
They all will lose.
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Nawaz Dawood / November 8, 2014
I did read this article in disgust. The comments are even more disappointing. None of them has just spoken about defeating the terrorists just within 5 years. Yes, we saw the media how Sarath Fonseka was about to become the president. The media is the bastion of UNP and other parties in the opposition. Yet they talk lack of press freedom. The freedom they are seeking is to slander the government with or without facts. Most them write stories without any facts at all as if they have seen president Rajapaksa is robing people. During JRJ we read in several publications including Far Eastern Economic Review how he has made money to be most rich person in South Asia. JRJ appointing his sons ex-wife to liquidate Air Ceylon is legendary. What ever you guys are talking and writing on these web pages are only words. But in the ground MR will win twice over.
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n.ethirveerasingam / November 8, 2014
Dr. DJ and comments on his article fail to mention the Tamil votes. Can one assume that that vote bank is insignificant though it had helped to bring Chandrika, Ranil and then Rajapaksa to win elections either by voting or staying out of the elections.
It appears that Tamil votes are being ignored by all potential candidates as pleasing the Tamil voters with just political solutions will alienate more Sinhala voters. The two main potential presidential candidates are however on a “silent” campaign strategy to get Tamil voters without loosing the Sinhala voters. Tamils are finally realizing that “hush hush” back room promises will remain in the back rooms once the election is over.
They also understand that removing the present administration would give them relief and expose the alleged perpetrators to prosecution for war crimes and crimes against humanity and restrict them from traveling outside Sri Lanka except China and Russia. Tamils also understand that the potential opposition candidates after they are elected will not grant any powers for the Tamils to govern themselves under a federal arrangement or even under the 13A pluses or minuses. That will rule out Rajapaksa, Chandrika, Ranil or any UNP candidate. Sobitha Thero is the untested possible candidate. Will he publicly state a political solution a majority of Tamil voters will accept?
Tamils can of course put up their own candidate whose manifesto can be political solution acceptable to them. The Presidential and Parliamentary elections can therefore be used as a Referendum to send a message to whichever party wins the elections, to the Sinhala Community and to the international community including the Tamil Diaspora. The election will expose the strength and weakness of the Tamil leadership.
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kamal / November 8, 2014
Karu Jayasooriya should be the common candidate who can gather all opposition. He is a singhala Buddhist which is the major challenge for Mahinda,s vote base. Karu will get traditional minority votes which will always favor UNP. Karu can beat Mahinda.
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manu / November 8, 2014
The question is not a common candidate but the most important fact is a president who can stand against the West and other countries’ interference, protect the integrity and sovereignty of SL, to protect the hard earned peace by our courageous forces, not to allow the LTTE to regroup and start a war for a separate state, to keep the TNA and SLMC in their place and not to give into their LTTE and separate state ideologies etc. I hope all the oppositions against MR will keep this mind and save our mother land and work for the people who choose them to be the leader. This is my humble prayer.
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manu / November 8, 2014
The best common candidate is who will not allow the country to be torn into pieces by the West and other anti-SL elements.
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shankar / November 8, 2014
“How To Pick The Common Candidate”
easy,can answer in one sentence.pick the candidate who will get the most votes from the common people.
look at the last presidential elections.you can see that mahinda lost in the inner city of colombo and also dehiwela-Mt lavinia,borella.
he won by slim majority in kotte,kollonnawa and ratmalana.probably he will lose those this time.But look at places like kaduwela,kesbawa,maharagama,homagama,avisssawala where he won by thumping majorities.If you want to break into those,what do you need,a candidate who affluent people will vote for or a candidate who the poor will vote for,albeit even grudgingly as a protest vote at least.
I give below the last presidential elections.See everywhere it is the same.Look at gampaha district an SLFP stronghold.Except for negombo and wattala he won all the rest and also with thumping majorities.No way that anyone can win the the gampaha district without SLFP support.CBK is the only one who has a chance.Colombo and gampaha districts total 2.5 million votes and without a candidate who can win both or at least win the colombo district with a margin that will cancel the margin lost in the gampaha district,no chance of becoming the president because the same trend will continue in the other districts too.
http://www.infolanka.com/news/election2010.htm
1. The candidate that the opposition puts out should be one who is able to beat mahinda in kotte,kollonnawa,ratmalana and moratuwa.
2.he or she should be able to beat him in wattala,negombo,jaela and kelaniya.
3.The opposition should not field any candidate that can lose these electorates.This should be the minimum requirement for selection criteria.A poll must be carried out by the UNP in these electorates and any candidates who can’t win those must be discarded in the shortlist.
4.The next important district is kurunegala,with nearly a million votes.this is going to be a very difficult district for the opposition.
a poll should be held by the opposition in kurunegala and kuliyapitiya electorates,which are the strongest for it in the kurunegala district to see out of the shortlisted candidates from the colombo and gampaha districts who can definitely win these electorates this time.Anybody who cannot should be eliminated as the common candidate.
5.The next most important district is the kandy with three quarter million votes which is the district where mahinda is most weak.Out of the shortlisted candidates anyone who cannot win every electorates except udu-dumbara should be eliminated.
Is there any candidate who can win all the electorates i mentioned?
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Jim softy / November 8, 2014
In this present world, every where in the world, candidates are representing special interest groups.
Even the Pope is elected keeping specific interests in mind.
In that context, what is the meaning and the purpose of a “COMMON CANDIDATE” to Sri lanka ?
For what purpose and for whom ?
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K.A Sumanasekera / November 8, 2014
What a coincidence that we read Dayan’s free advice when the Elite , Anglicans and the Vellalas are pouring into Sobitha’s Dig in Nugegoda, where the movers and shakers offer Alms to go to Heaven.
Today is the big day for Sobitha to persuade the UNP, JVP, TNA, ex LTTE Reps and the Diaspora that he is the best of the best to roll Rajapaksa.
Do any of these potential CCs nominated by Dayan have any Economic credibility?
What do they offer the great majority of the 75 percent plus Sinhala inhabitant population, other than abolishing the Presidency and creating Bantustans to please the LTTE proxy TNA and and their ally the Diaspora.
The great majority of the inhabitant population now have great roads to travel to Colombo to see a Medical Specialist or go to Nagadipa to worship Buddha , where he first set foot on this Island.
They can earn up to LKR 1000 a day even doing manual jobs , the Elite don’t do,
Young girls do not work for left over food in Elite households.
They don’t have to entertain the sly Elite husbands or frisky sons who use them as sex toys.
Security and safety of the rural villagers including Aranthlawa, Somagiriya, Madakalapuwa, and even Athraliya are guaranteed.,
And they haven’t had any nasties , like massacres or assassinations or suicide attacks for well over 5 years.
These villagers haven’t forgotten the misery they had to put up with , when CBK and her cousin Ranil were running the show.
Do any of these two deserve to be the president of the 75 percent of this inhabitant population?.
Sobitha seems to have no clue about what he is on about.
Even our Dalits can understand that Sobitha can’t just sign a piece of paper and say No more Presidency.
May be the Elite are smarter than the Dalits to believe Sobitha.
In the West, where these Political Whizz kids cut their teeth , elections are contested only on Employment, Inflation, Economic growth , Health Services , Aged Care, Better Schools for the remote areas, more Uni places and since late on big ticket infrastructure projects to make the life better for the majority..
What do the CC backing UNP TNA Diaspora Alliance offer.
None of the above.
May be they are under the impression that when TNA gets Vella Police and the Land Bank, the ex CJ is reinstated and all those Commissions are stacked with UNP , TNA and BASL stooges, everything will be hunky dory.
And Ranil can embark on decommissioning all our valuable assets in the South, specially in Hambanthota, privatize the the cTB , CWE and sell our Rail, Roads and Land to British Pesion funds and new Galleons from the Diaspora.
And restore the Elite rule over the dalits as in the past.
Elite may think our Dalits in South are darf. But they are not going to get duped by the UNP TNA Diaspora alliance with or without Sobitha,
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Harry Hatton / November 8, 2014
Just look at these liberators !1) A fashion designer who became very rich and crossed over to the UNP because it was suspected that his loyalties to MR were doubtful.As a UNP supporter he was even suspected of assaulting a UNP procession in Matara. Now he is disloyal to the UNP too.
2) Chandrika whose father founded the SLFP is now working with the UNP because she is insanely jealous of MR. She was President for two terms and her period is called the lost years ! She pulled the rug under Ranil in 2004 and set in motion the process that brought MR to power .
3) Sarath Silva says openly he helped MR to become President and he regrets it. Both he and Chandrika are the types who will regret anyting as long as they are not on the centre stage.
4) Karu the famous cross over to MR after 2005 elections will always hang over his so called democratic principles.
5) RW a misfit who has frustrated the unp and the entire country because of his personal failings and public incompetence.
6) Premadasa , a wind bag who thinks he is something special , an opinion which is limited to himself.
So let us wait for the verdict of the people !
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Kali / November 8, 2014
Dayan
How to pick a Common Candidate.
If you ask me should we pick a ” Commoner” against a Royal ( King Mahintha) the answer is no as it amounts to treason in Mahinthas Kingdom. We all know the Punishment for treason. “Capitol Punishement”.
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K.A Sumanasekera / November 8, 2014
Harry Hatton has delivered a few pearlers in his comment.
Fashion designer is in Singapore to talk Turkey with the ex Gen, both of whom have now become the “Salmon that John West rejects”.
As soon as the Keselwatta Kid came on board Ranil dropped the Designer like a hot potato.
Can anyone find fault with that, if they have any grey matter in them?.
The F Designer’s cheer squads then started telling the Elite, that he is in talks with the Govt,
After the insults he hurled on not only Rajapaksas but their precious old ancestors as well , can anyone think Gota will sit with him to talk Turkey.
May be he is helping his ex boss CBK to muster the 28 in the Govt who have kept their CVs in the Bribery Commission Office for Safekeeping .
Would they join the F Designer unless they want to do a harakiri..
In the meantime Christian Faction leader is in two minds.
Run or not to Run,,..
Kselwatta Kid already has said in public, that no way he is going to run even if Ranil gives it to him on plate.
Keselwatta Kid is not that darf to get done by both Ranil and Mangalan…
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Nano Tina / November 8, 2014
The very set of people, websites, Ravaya, etc., who were propping up Ranil to continue as UNP leader over the years are the ones now says of a common candidiate. What hypocracy!!.
Ranil being the leader of the largest opposition party in the country and holding the leadership of the party to date with the help of above peripheral forces, thinks NOW that he is not suitable to contest from UNP as the Presidential candidate, he should have left that position long ago and the UNP would have found a better leder who can contest as UNP’s Presidential candidiate and win too. Ranil, please don’t destroy a great party further.
The strong UNPers, that is over 50% of the UNPers, will never vote for any other party, mind you. Sarath Fonseka’s performance in 2010 was an exception for different reasons. So anybody who contests other than from Elephant symbol, may get peripheral party votes, BUT loose a big chunk of UNP votes, including mine. ANY (UN)COMMON CANDIDATE CONTESTING OUTSIDE ELEPHANT SYMBOL FROM THE OPPOSITION WILL NOT CROSS OVER 30% OF VOTES. A BIG LOOSER!!!
So Ranil, if you are not contesting from UNP, YOU SHOULD HAVE LONG LEFT UNP LEADERSHIP POSITION. Shame!! Shame on you to be the leader of the largest political party and not contest for the second consecutive time and just holding on to the leadership position. Shame!! Shame on you!!!
Ranil! in 2005 you did good, lately you don’t have a backbone to face people (fear of getting exposed??). Loosing psycho has caught up with you. After Sajith providing you with a backbone, still you are hesitating to use it. Shame!!.
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Duleep / November 9, 2014
The opposition common candidate should be,
1. A member of the main opposition party UNP or (Ranil or Karu)
2. A prominent well respected Citizen (Ven. Sobhitha or Rathana thero ) or
3. An educated interlectual (PC. Shrinath Perera or Thilak Karunarathne )
The common candidate has a vision supported by his party and he will be an intermediary for the whole process. The candidate should attract the mass community and minority as well.
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