By Ameer Ali –
Dr. Ameer Ali
Almost six months after the psychotic President Donald Trump declared his Operation Epic Fury and bombed Iran followed by his bullying, extortions and braggadocio, all to succumb to the pressure from his Zionist lobby in Washington and Israel abroad, and despite the efforts of Qatari and Pakistani mediators to end the conflict, it is Iran and not US which is on the front foot and dictating terms and conditions to US and Trump. It appears that the US war machine said to have consumed a mammoth total of more than $21 trillion between 2001 and 2024 has turned into a paper tiger in comparison to the Iranian defence capabilities which had spent only $7.5 billion or just 2% of what US had done. US is reported to have lost nearly 25% of its drone fleet in the war against Iran and Israel is shocked to see the rapid recovery of Iranian fire power after six months of war. Yet, Trump claims that US is in full control over the Strait of Hormuz. If true, why is he not facilitating trouble-free passage to vessels wishing to pass through that waterway? Why are the oil exporters in the Gulf looking for alternative routes to export their product? Iran’s negotiations with Oman does not mean that Hormuz is open. As Paul Krigman an eminent economist notes, Trump has “lost his war of choice” and with increasing oil and energy prices his inflationary bomb is set to explode to drag the global economy into an unavoidable recession. It is from such a vantage point that Iran is not agreeing to the terms and conditions set by Trump but countering him instead with its own demands which include among others an end to the wars in Gaza and Lebanon and release of frozen Iranian funds. In short, Iran is planning a strategy to achieve an outcome which would open a new chapter in the history of Middle East.
Vijay Prasad was on the money when he said in his latest column for Counter Punch (11 August 2026) that “Iran has changed the question” by stipulating new conditions for the Trump administration to agree not only for reopening the Strait of Hormuz for trouble free shipping and trade movements but also for peace in the Middle East in general. In other words, and more precisely, Iran has become the game changer, and its leadership is talking from a position of strength and not out of weakness. At the same time Iran is also warning the Arab nations that unless they get rid of their dependency mentality towards US and Global North, they would remain as vassal states of not only US but even Israel. Trump’s tempting offer to Saudi Arabia to go nuclear while normalising relations with Israel via signing the Abraham Accord is a trap, and the recent defence pact signed by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan is a meaningless document.
The ruling Middle East Order (MEO) is a post-World War II creation and US since receiving the baton of superpower leadership from Britain has been that order’s dictatorial guardian. With Israel as its deputy sherif US virtually decides who should rule where and for how long. Any local recalcitrant threatening to challenge the order or US supremacy was quickly made to disappear. Muammar Ghadaffi of Libya and Saddam Hussain of Iraq were prime examples of this experiment. Wasn’t it an exhibition of US arrogance when in 2018 and after shooting down an Iranian passenger jet with 300 passengers – all of them killed – the then Vice President of US George W. Bush declared “I will never apologize for the United States – I don’t care what the facts are”? Iran has had enough of it and is now determined to change this state of play. In the end, just as Suez became the coffin for a dying British Empire, Strait of Hormuz would become the deathbed for US’ MEO and eventually its global captaincy.
Unlike the Arab countries, Iran situated along the ancient Silk Road, realises that its natural allies are in the Global South and East and not in Global North and West. The prevailing link between the Arab world and Global North is the outcome of the cannibalised Ottoman Empire whose Arab provinces were shared between the two colonial powers Britian and France in terms of the Psyches-Picot Agreement of 1916. The history of today’s Arab subservience to Western powers could be traced back to this date, and the historic disunity among the Arab puppets made it easier for their Western puppeteers to manipulate that division to achieve what they wanted. The creation in 1948 of that Zionist entity called Israel which is now threatening the very existence of the Arab world with weapons and finance generously supplied by the Western powers is the saddest consequence of this saga. The tragedy of Gaza, settler violence in the West Bank and Israel’s occupation of Southern Lebanon would not have happened had the Arab world changed their diplomatic qibla from Global North to Global South. In that sense what Iran is doing now is to be a game changer.
Iran is the only Muslim country with its non-state allies that is backing fully the Palestinian armed struggle for independence. The other Muslim countries are just onlookers and some of them and particularly from the Gulf are waiting to make profit out of Trump’s reconstruction plan for Gaza once Israel completes its genocide mission and destruction. The Holy Quran in several places describes the unbelievers as “deaf, dumb and blind”. If that text could be contextualised and textualize the current context it is not the unbelievers but believers who fit into that description. This is the tragedy of today’s Muslim world. Of what use is their number without action? For instance, in 1990 had these countries jointly walked out of the UN General Assembly when George Bush addressed before bombing Iraq wouldn’t he have at least delayed his action? Lately, Trump has announced that he would declare Hormuz part of US territory once Iran is defeated and impoverished. This may be another of his braggadocio to win the mid-term election. However, would the Arab world welcome US forces closer to their borders? Perhaps they have no choice after allowing US bases to operate from the Gulf countries already.
Iran’s relentless resistance against US-Israel military manoeuvres and economic sanctions the cause of Palestine independence has won worldwide recognition by adding strength to the pro-Palestinian movement. But Global North has tarnished that movement as promoting antisemitism. How can support for a semitic race be antisemitic? Aren’t Palestinian Arabs a semitic race? What is hidden behind the antisemitism charade is Islamophobia. For example, the anti-immigration issue that dominates the political agenda of far-right movements in Global North is targeting the influx of Muslims into Western countries. Netanyahu recently branded Britain an “Islamic Republic”. To Australia’s One Nation leader Paulin Hanson there are no “good Muslim”.
Iran’s struggle to emerge as a balancing force in the Middle East is a threat to US made MEO and in that sense Iran is a game changer.