By Kumar David –
It’s a long game and the stages are (a) the SLPP and Gota fall short of a 2/3 majority on 25 April, (b) Sajith’s gang get enough parliamentarians, who added to the SLPP are sufficient to deliver the constitution amending majority, and (c) Mahinda agrees to the final version of a proposed 20A. The fly in the ointment is (c). My ball-park expectation is 120 for the SLPP and 50 for Sajith; nirvana is 150. I will explore Mahinda’s concerns at the end, but let’s do Gota and Sajith first. Gotabaya has made it amply clear that he wants a full-force executive presidency and he wants pestilential 19A scrapped. He will pay what it takes to get his way. The only force that can help him ascend to nirvana is Sajith if my numbers game is roughly right. What’s in it for Sajith? Let’s not have a shadow of doubt that Sajith will turn traitor to 19A if the price is right. Sajith, Ranil the UNP/SJP have as many principles as MR/GR and the SLPP have, and that’s scraping the bottom of the barrel.
Sri Lanka is one of the very few presidential systems without a Vice President. Why? Because JR and his spittoon-carrying tie-and-lipstick wearing class, including Gamini and Lalith, did not want to elevate socially spurned father-Premadasa to this exalted office. Now the son may be able to cut a deal and push his way forward. Given a chance he will do it with the speed of greased lightening. Neither Sajith nor Ranil can be trusted to stand for democracy or give it priority over their personal benefits. Have you wondered why all these months Sajith and Ranil have done nothing to expose the government’s militarising of the state and corporations and its undercutting of CID investigation of murders (Lasantha, Thajudeen and Ekneligoda) by taking away files, and making crassly nepotistic corporate appointments? The CID officer handling MIG-27 the misappropriation of $7.8 million has been removed so the prosecution is left high and dry. A string of cases accusing political allies are being scuttled. CID investigators are being thwarted at every step by Commissions of Inquiry and military interference. Repeated SL Air scams that cost the country countless billion of rupees are the talk of the town but swept under the carpet by both GR-MR and yahapalana. The GR recruited 46,000 youth for “training” (now anesthetised by the Election Commission). Training for what? The EC is barking up the wrong tree; this is no election backhander; it is the first step in forming Gota’s Brown-Shirt Brigade. Tax-collection has been turned into pluperfect chaos; the exchequer is flabbergasted. The list goes on and on. Sri Lanka is half way to becoming a military regime and Gota notwithstanding, an inefficient one at that.
My point is not these transgressions per se, but why Ranil and Sajith, with this cache of dynamite in their hands to blast the government are doing nothing of the sort? They are letting GR and MR get away without even a rap on the knuckles. Why, why, why? Don’t they want to win as many seats as possible? The answer to me is obvious, they have cut a deal. With an arsenal of biting censures that can used to expose GR/MR in hand, Sajith and Ranil are dovish. Most likely they have cut two deals. What Sajith wants from Gota for being Judas to 19A may be a VP-ship and what Ranil wants from Mahinda is to get off the bond-scam hook and be left in peace to enjoy his whisky, official car, petrol and security detail on government account.
The fly in the ointment is Mahinda and the Mahinda wing of the SLPP, its majority. Creation of a VP position expands power sharing at the top to a three-legged stool; P, VP and PM. For what conceivable reason would Mahinda countenance demotion to ceremonial number three when de facto, among SLPP parliamentarians and Sinhala-Buddhists at large, he is still number one? Secondly, inserting an interloper into a Vice Presidency threatens the future of ambitious of his numbskull progeny and clan and family greed. It is difficult to predict at this moment exactly what form of conspiracy will take shape if Gota cannot muster a two-thirds majority on his own. The details will emerge after 25 April.
The JVP-NPP is the only force in the South that is outside this wheeling and dealing. However, it does not seem to have the imagination or the propaganda fire-power to bring this Sajith-Ranil silently concocted with GR-MR conspiracy into full public view. The elections are just over a month away; it’s time to drag all that GR, MR, Sajith and Ranil are concealing from the people into the daylight. Wake up comrades!
JD / March 18, 2020
This looks like THEORETICAL POLITICS. Only problem is it always goes wrong. What I heard is Sajith preparing and counting for something else. Sajith is not sure about 35 seats. He wish it it won’t become a THREE WHEELER PARTY. He has forgotten to ask something from Ranil. I wrote the details in the previous thread. Anyway, Sajith is calculating how much he wants in order to defeat the govt in NO CONFIDENCE MOTION.
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PIUMI / March 20, 2020
Sajith deserves to be sent to the dustbin of the history of politics. The father started dividing the party and now the on vision son has completed the mission due to Ranils weakness. This man should have been chased away from the party the day they stoned the Sirikotha, The whole family are crooks and uneducated lot. RIP Sajth
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Anonymous / March 20, 2020
The biggest mistake the new Coalitions is making is depriving Karu a chance of being Prime Minister!!! He lead the fight against CoupeLk while Sajith is like the son who tried to throw the father out of the house to steal everything he owned before it was handed over to him…
As long as Sajith an Tissa are in this part I will not vote for them…
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JD / March 18, 2020
Sajith, even though he says SAMAGI that is exactly what they do not agree on. So, he wants to take COVID – 19 as the excuse and postpone the election. JVP that is another JANA BALAWEGAYA which will become another THREE WHEELER PARTY, they say, that is what we say too. But, ask SAJITH AND THE GANG to UNITE and work instead of saying we are United.
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JD / March 18, 2020
Sri Lankan Parliament is going to be a REAL MESS. One executive prime minister. Not so executive president and another puppet vice president, again not so executive, he will be really talkative even though not for useful things (remember Tampons, imported ones) . I hear Karu Jayauriya the speaker also to himself saying (I did not invent these). I am also here, It annoys me as they do not talk my name or do not think about my presence.
Anyway, the govt has a plan to issue luxury wheel chairs to every Parliamentarian who wants one, when the next parliament begins.
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Dilshan / March 18, 2020
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lankan / March 18, 2020
That is good for the time being. Rather than fighting with Ranil.
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babalawathie mudunkotuwa / March 18, 2020
why and how can SP be vize president ?.
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We speculate almost anything and everything, but why to do so ?.
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Mallaiyuran / March 19, 2020
King needs Ranil to balance with Old King. So, King cannot afford to give any positions to Vaalaiththodam by passing Ranil. Ranil is the master in forming duplicity National Unity Government. Old King will destroy UNP the same way he destroyed SLFP and revenged the Aappa eating traitorous Judas, The New King.
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K.A. Sumanasekera / March 19, 2020
Mally .. Do you mean the ex Yahapalana King?..
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He is an Appa eating Judas for sure..
But we ought to give him something for saving the Old King as well as the new King from Shani Abeysekara putting Hand Cuffs on them, under the instructions from Ranajan Ramanayaka. Dr Jayampathy , Dr Rajitha.and Mr Ranawaka.
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Just imagine how humiliating it would have been ,if the Mighty LTTE Pirahaparan beating Duo came in a Balck Maria to the Fort Magistrate with the throngs of UNP Elite , Anglican and Vellala cheering from the Roadside.
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BTW is Sampathar Okay with Keselwatta Kid Mally?..
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K.A. Sumanasekera / March 18, 2020
Can’t understand why Dr Kumar loves the 3% Party boss so much…
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Anyway , Keselwatta Kid knows what his Daddy did to those UNP two, whom Dr Kumar has mentioned.
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So KK must be watching over the shoulders every time he comes out to address the UNP Dalits.
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Even as late as last week, the Kid told his loyalists in Avissawella that ” They” are going to get him..
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The way his ex mate , defied the CID even with Prez Nandasen and his Defence Sec in charge , must have given the Kid Goose Bumps.
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So he must have thought of getting a bullet proof Life Insurance Policy to keep the Aryawa in a good financial and secure state , the same way as his Mom was provided…
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Who is better to provide that than our new Prez Nandasena?…
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Native Vedda / March 18, 2020
KASmaalam K.A. Sumanasekera
“Who is better to provide that than our new Prez Nandasena?”
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Provide what?
Shavendra with a red hot iron rod?
Jagath with a pickaxe?
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K.A. Sumanasekera / March 19, 2020
Dear Native,?.
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Tell me buddy. Was that Dude lying next to Nnthikadal Lagoon in full LTTE Battle Fatigue your Thalaivar Velupulle Pirahapran?..
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Or was He like that Raju who was lying on the footpath in High Level Rd Kirullapaoane , after UNP Stalwart Lalith Athulatamudali was sniped in the Park there during Keselwatta Kid’s Dad’s Reign ?..
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Native Vedda / March 21, 2020
KASmaalam K.A. Sumanasekera
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“Was that Dude lying next to Nnthikadal Lagoon in full LTTE Battle Fatigue your Thalaivar Velupulle Pirahapran?”
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For the umpteenth time I am trying to tell you that I have only ELDERS and do not have stupid leaders.
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What made you think I have had connection with your brethren the psychopath Thiruvengadam Velupillai Prabaharan? I have nothing to do with him therefore you should stop forcing his unfortunate presence on us.
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Athulath Sh*t Bomb Mudali warned Premadasa that his b***s were in Premadasa’s hands and Premadasa’s were in his hands. You know the Nayakas and Mudalies never liked Premadasa, both tried to socially distance him and have him self-isolated.
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Rest is history and LTTE supporters were very happy. Didn’t you hear any fire crackers?
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Dionysus / March 18, 2020
Please keep writing Mr Kumar David, one of the few journalist with a clear head and clear sight. Your lucid sentences explain to us the political landscape and what we can look forward to at the forthcoming elections. If only other journalists can be just as objective and non-partisan. But of course that is too much to ask for or expect.
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W D Thilakarathna / March 18, 2020
Don’t say lie, created ball for Ranil, it will never happen due to current situation
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Uthungan / March 18, 2020
Thank you Prof. KD for a view about the dangers of possible Mafia scheme by the Gota,Ranil,Sajith combo.
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Adrian / March 18, 2020
Well there is plenty of vice for him to be president of.
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Native Vedda / March 18, 2020
Adrian Aged 13 3/4
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“Well there is plenty of vice for him to be president of.”
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True, Gota has yet to prove his innocence, regarding his immigration status, money laundering when his clan bribed VP Rs 185 million in 2005, proper accounting for purchase of Arms and war related purchases, MIG deal, declaration of his assets, murders, war crimes, crime against humanity committed between April 26, 1971 and todate, …..
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Adrian / March 18, 2020
Naked Vedda, more than that there is the deafening silence of Ranil and Sajith over these very same matters.
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Eagle Eye / March 18, 2020
Native Vedda,
Gotabhaya Rajapakse proved his capabilities by giving the leadership along with his brother to eliminate megalomaniac Piripakaran who was the ‘Sun God’ of ‘Para Demalu and restore peace and security for Native Sinhalayo who suffered for three decades due to terrorist campaign of LTTE barbarians. That is more than enough for Native Sinhalayo to exonerate him from any wrong doings he has done.
Guys like you want to poke your finger in his a@s and shout ‘Oh! there is shit in his a@s’; ‘Prove your innocence for this and that’. Get the hell out and leave him alone.
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ROHAN JOHNPILLAI / March 18, 2020
sad sorry Lanka has thanks to the muddled up Yakko politicians has now become a jig-saw puzzle that can never or does not desire to be solved and fitted into place.
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the kallathoni, wide arsed mahindan, Ranil and Sajith will definitely do a deal to cover all of their shortcomings.
the hapless foolish modaya Sinhala Buddhist along with the cardinal’s voters will be the losers big time and there will be a kallathoni of a war criminal led uncouth unsavory military criminal ridden military junta will rule the roost till the cows comes home and only when the pleasure of going to hell hits them a new lot will take their places.
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as for me, I am thrilled beyond any doubts that I am far away from this mad man-made hellhole.?
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cheers, R. J.
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Eagle Eye / March 18, 2020
ROHAN JOHNPILLAI,
“the kallathoni, wide arsed mahindan, Ranil and Sajith will definitely do a deal to cover all of their shortcomings.”
‘Kallathonis’ are ‘Para’ Demalu who are the descendants of Dravida slaves brought to Sinhale illegally by colonial parasites.
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“the hapless foolish modaya Sinhala Buddhist”
Sinhalaya Modaya
Kewun Kanna Yodaya
Uda Karanna Sooraya
Dema Lunge Maraya
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“I am thrilled beyond any doubts that I am far away from this mad man-made hellhole.?”
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Sinhale was a ‘Paradise Island’ before 1505. ‘Para’ colonial parasites and ‘Para’ Dravidians who were brought to Sinhale by colonial parasites as slaves and dumped in this country converted the ‘Paradise Island’ to a hellhole.
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Raman / March 19, 2020
Idiotic eagle,
“. Para’ Dravidians who were brought to Sinhale by colonial parasites as slaves ” You keep dumping your dog-poop all over CT. At least say something different.
Most of the “native Sinhalayo” , including yourself, are descended from Indian migrants of the last 500 years, They planted everything from cocoa to cinnamon .
You have the fking nerve to call tea workers slaves while you enjoy the fruits of their labour. They are here only because your lazy ancestors refused to work. Even now you prefer to send your women to Dubai and get drunk on their money. Pl. go get yourself admitted to a good elders home.
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ROHAN JOHNPILLAI / March 19, 2020
eager-less?
you are the world’s greatest hypocrite.?
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you call the tamil’s as kallathoni’s but you conveniently forget that as to the one who keeps you aroused with a tickle or two.
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is she or he, not a kallathoni.of a pare demala?
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they say that people living in glass houses should not throw stones at others.
rest in peace my pot calling the kettle black mate, you rest in peace.?
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cheers, R. J.
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N.Perera / March 22, 2020
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Jay Chambers / March 18, 2020
I am a lover of Lanka and if what the writer says is accurate, then its a great thing for the country. The most important thing for the country is to have executive powers vested in the Presidency so that Moslem Jihadi maniacs who follow ISIS diktat can be totally annihilated. Sure, there are sad collateral damages when making a covenant between non-Moslem parties and things that get neglected but Lanka should understand it is no five star democracy, but a barely 2 star partially feudal and partially socialist jumble with innocent and at times silly people who are harmless as ordinary citizens (except the scheming Moslem ISIS vultures who are a bloodthirsty bunch of monsters. The duty of the Lankan Executive President is to totally crush the Moslem hydra that sucks the lifeblood of the Kaffirs, through commercial, political, ideological and even spiritual terrorism, and for that the Executive must be armed with all the powers the position must be allowed to possess. ANY covenant, deal, agreement that aims to achieve this result should be lauded and supported by the Kaffir innocents so that they can still live in a fundamentally free and traditional Lanka with its Buddhist temples, churches and Hindu temples with a lot of sunshine and wonderful nature that makes is a paradise like no other .
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rama / March 18, 2020
We are having an operation that will make the real Mafia to hide. There are no God Fathers but only “Families” with a few heads and capos. The supposed to be God Father Mahinda is in a spin since his son Namal ( Micheal Corleone) does bot know whether he is coming or going and introducing his second son to be the next God Father would be a real disaster. Gotler the supposed to be head of a “Family” is shivering in his boots looking over his shoulder, who knows his elephant might be beheaded to teach him a lesson. Then we have the Irishman the hit man ( Karuna) lurking in the shadows who will not hesitate to pump in a few bullets for a fee.As it stands the hero it appears to be is Mr. Corona who could destroy all hopes and aspirations for those who want to be God Fathers
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A.N. Other / March 19, 2020
Mr Chamber-pot,
“I am a lover of Lanka ” . Yes we know that. Particularly it’s children, no?
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rama / March 18, 2020
We are having an operation that will make the real Mafia to hide. There are no God Fathers but only “Families” with a few heads and capos. The supposed to be God Father Mahinda is in a spin since his son Namal ( Micheal Corleone) does bot know whether he is coming or going and introducing his second son to be the next God Father would be a real disaster. Gotler the supposed to be head of a “Family” is shivering in his boots looking over his shoulder, who knows his elephant might be beheaded to teach him a lesson. Then we have the Irishman the hit man ( Karuna) lurking in the shadows who will not hesitate to pump in a few bullets for a fee.As it stands the hero it appears to be is Mr. Corona who could destroy all hopes and aspirations for those who want to be God Fathers
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Eagle Eye / March 18, 2020
Rama,
“The supposed to be God Father Mahinda”
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Mahinda Rajapakshe is not ‘supposed to be God Father’ but true God Father of Native Sinhalayo. But to LTTE barbarians he is ‘Maraya’.
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JD / March 18, 2020
Had 42 seats, After the bond scam, 500 million tax break to car importers and increased taxes to poor, allowed Zaharan to blow, now they get 50 seats minimum. I wonder why Sri Lankan voters need education and training how to vote. Country’s economic growth was NIL and dollar went to 183 the value that it stays now.
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Blabla / March 18, 2020
One thing is clear, irrespective of the party, all parliamentarians are very good and thick friends as all have skeletons in their cupboards. They appear to fight tooth and nail only when outside the parliament in public rallies. They must be giggling inside while addressing the public.
The biggest crook of all is former president Sirisena. He is the dirtiest person who would say any lies and commit any sins just to get what he wants knowing very well he cannot win in a level playing field. He used the dirtiest and shameful methods to get what he wants. He started first by stabbing his former boss Mr. Mahinda Rajapakse in his back after enjoying all the privileges Mahinda had offered him. He then goes to the fullest extent to appeal to the people promising he would bring relief to all those victims who were affected by Rajapakses. He promised to make Rajapakse answer to a court of inquiry, get him punished for the sins and bad deeds he had committed during his rule. He promised to punish those involved in the murder of Lasantha Wickrematunge. He promised to make Raajapakse answerable to the death of Thajudeen. He gave very high hopes to Thajudeen’s family. He had promised to the public he would NEVER associate with such bad people as Rajapakse in his lifetime.
But in the end what happened? The people trusted him and voted him to power making him the President, but in return what did he do? He made the man whom he addressed to the public as a murderer, as the Prime minister which certainly was short-lived! He now has joined the Rajapakse SLPP. Sirisena has committed unforgivable sins to the people of Sri Lanka including Mahinda Rajapakse. He should give up politics and live in shame for what he has done.
Rajapakse too is not a man of integrity,
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Buddhist / March 18, 2020
There is no Sajith becoming VP. With whats seen today Pohottuwa will not have majority and other parties can join and easily form a majority Govt making Sajith the PM. In order to counter this Gotabaya is now consolidating power under the Ministry of Defense, which does not have a Minister. Gota will do what he could not do as the then Commander of the Army did not support when Mahinda lost the Presidential election, miltary takeover and suspend the constitution. He is now consolidating everything under Sharvendra and it would be easy for him to do this. Military will take over and appoint Gotabaya as the President to run the country, with no Parliament or a Parliament appointed by the Military.
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Sri-Krish / March 18, 2020
Sajith accepting VP post under Gotabya is highly improbable. Why should he?
Gotabaya inviting Sajith believing that the rank and file will also join SLPP to enable Sajith becoming VP is not realistic.
The newly elected members of Parliament whether they belong to Sajith’s party or to any one of the Tamil or Muslim parties will simply join with Gotabaya after the election and two third will not be a problem.
It is high jump or long jump.
Gotabaya will have two third majority in Parliament.
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Douglas / March 18, 2020
Dr. David Kumar: I am surprised of your “ATTEMPT” to FIND FEATHERS IN A TORTOISE. All these “Self Claimed” Politicians of long term experience” are “Dead Wood” and must be written off. The worst situation was, the PEOPLE got so FED UP and once again voted a “NOVICE” to Civil Administration, along with the same set of “ROGUES” and are at the “Receiving End” for a terrible mistake done. No option but to suffer once again.
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SJ / March 18, 2020
The author should have a serious go at fiction.
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TK / March 19, 2020
Probably ‘fuction’ would be a better option!
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Good Sense / March 19, 2020
Any article of this kind must firstly be out of facts and any intelligent guess work is allowed. In intelligent guessing there is some element of imagination but in no case it must be imagination running riot. I accept the author’s guess work of 120 seats for the Pohottuwa for the simple reason that had Parliamentary elections were held almost immediately after the Presidential elections then assuming that a voter for Pohottuwa remains invariant the number of seats would be about 128 and accounting for the loss of luster of the victorious with time a reduction to 120 is expected. 55 for Sajith & Co? It is difficult to think. Describing 150 as Nirvana is obnoxious, perhaps a better term can be the seventh heaven as it is a prized catch. The basic question is that the constituents of Pohottuwa and allies which forms the 120 seats would not wish to have anything to do with Sajith. Can GR form an alliance with Sajith alienating his own people? That is where the assumption that a politician would do anything to achieve his prized target fails because any truck with Sajith by GR amounts to kicking the ladder that helped one to climb high. GR is not that an idiot to commit political suicide. I know for certain that analysts like Prof. Kum are capable of arriving at stunning conclusions to the extent of offering a newly created Vice Presidency to Sajith but a lot other would wonder whether Prof Kum requires the attention of a reputed psychiatrist and the subsequent medication.
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Mallaiyuran / March 19, 2020
Prof. Kumar misunderstanding that Old King wants to create a VP position and King wants to offer that to Vaalaiththodam. That not anything different than his 2015 CC. It is sad to see that KD is predicting Royals want to be graceful crowd to give a jack up for Vaalaiththodam-“A VP employment”. All high positions are to be held only by Royals; nobody else. Even New King gets nothing! Old King wants the high positions like VP, PM and Speaker under his hand & in his family so he can impeach King when he wants. Ranil, who went to NYC to see UNSG, went to TTC to burn all secret document while Old ran out with one slipper, offered Old King PM job though NCM, made Old as PM through a coup, and made King as the EP by dodging the dual citizen regulation and creating 4/21 attack, is waiting after making negotiations with King in Singapore hospital. If I tried to write here the occasions Ranil saved Royals, the book cannot be finished in one volume. King needs Ranil’s brain to beat USA, UNHRC & West. In that condition which Modaya who has only one cell in brain, will seek for another friend in Opposition for partnership to make secret pact in order to win the election while Nariya Ranil is under the feet?
Remember, it is depending on Ranil, former State Secretary John Kerry said that he had spent $650M on Lankawe and Myanmar and had created two new democratic countries. Where is that all now? It the same way, KD said after seeing his CC based Yahapalanaya doomed, “It may be true; but Ranil has reinstalled Democracy”. Now where is that democracy?
Unlike we said in these columns, Instead of Sinhala Intellectuals come for the Sinhala Buddhist as last, they have gone after the UNP and SLFP, the Wildlife Sanctuary’s Crime Cartels created by the ill willed Don Stephen and Solomon West Ridgeway Dias. We never imagined it all to go this low.
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watcher / March 19, 2020
“The JVP-NPP is the only force in the South that is outside this wheeling and dealing. “
Are you kidding or head in the sand ? Which camp was the JVP last 5 yrs? I believe Sajith can be train to be a good leader if he work with GR and do the right thing for the country and also fixing anomalies in 19.. That exam cheating guy who wrote this 19 rubbish should be charged with this mess.
Having indépendant institutions are great if people in this institutions are high calibre people instead of cabal of absolute crapy personalities and that include last speaker which is a another power hungry man that love to suck up to foreign powers to get his kids in foreign institutions.
BTW, can any one tell Sajith to speak plain sinhalese? 90% of language is foreign to me..lol.
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Adrian da Silva, Sao Paulo / March 19, 2020
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chiv / March 19, 2020
As a Lankan I have realized long before to “never say never “. We are such a unique country anything is possible. Some who say never would have said the same with MS being elected, MS/RW coming together to only go after each other , MS making not a U Turn but multiple 360 degrees to return back to the very same camp, RW/Sajith team going silent through out their stay and Rajapaksas are back to play their unfinished game. Just count how many times some of you would would have said NEVER , just in this one incident alone.
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Douglas / March 20, 2020
chiv: I think the PEOPLE who decide on their Representatives must NOW learn to “say NEVER, NEVER” to these TWO distinct camps who ruined the country for the last seven decades, taking turns in the Governance.
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Doric de Souza / March 20, 2020
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marka / March 20, 2020
nothing of the sort will happen like all promises made by politicians. if SP is to swallow the hook then he will be a sorry figure.
SP has not shown what t takes to be a leader.
ranil on the other had has destroyed the party.
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✍Fahim Knight / March 21, 2020
I wonder what those poor who buy milk powder, sugar by spoon measurement and rice too and other food items on daily basis would feed their kids until monday ?
Well who cares about them., mainthing is , The Supermarkets recovered most of thiers losses and the rich and previleged got to stock.
No one or nothing else matters .
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Bo Tie / March 21, 2020
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