By Vishwamithra –

“The risk of a wrong decision is preferable to the terror of indecision.” ~ Maimonides

Ranil Wickremesinghe

Ranil Wickremesinghe did not call for this; nor did he expect it. Political crises are more or less stations a stream of evolution halts for a little while where new comers embark and the old ones alight. There is no exception to this rule. Ranil is not stupid not to comprehend this natural phenomenon. However, in this instance, he seems to have been blinded by the rush of years, years being added to his age. He realizes that chances visiting him with such charity from his traditional political rivals, the SLFP or Pohottuwa clan, are once in a lifetime occurrence. He also knows that assuming the office of President through an election is zero. In such a personally saddening setting, what could he have done other than joining the Pohottuwa cabal and becoming the leader of the country? Elected or unelected is a mere nuance, not the fundamental.

But today’s setting is entirely different. Ranil Wickremesinghe and his government are caught up in a quagmire of economic debacle and a looming political collapse. The local government elections are being scheduled to be held on March 9, 2023. Ranil did not create these circumstances; yet, he inherited it and is trying to navigate on extremely troubled waters, not knowing whether he could be blessed with a shore in sight of a further-receding from the coast of stability.

Local Government elections are scheduled to be held in the midst of this chaotic setting. Ranil and his Pohottuwa cabal have many options; but none of them look favorable, either to the country or the Pohottuwa group and Ranil himself. Allow me to examine these options:

Option A – Hold LG Elections as planned on March 9

The country is getting prepared and the Elections Commissioner’s Office is ready and willing but availability of funds for the conduct of the elections is being questioned, especially by those who secretly dream of either postponing or cancellation of the elections. That is solely due to the prospect of losing it very badly. The consequences of the ultimate results would influence three distinct groupings: 1. Ranil Wickremesinghe & Pohottuwa. 2. Opposition Parties. 3. Country at large.

1. Ranil Wickremasinghe & Pohottuwa

If the LG elections are held on March 9 as planned, the United National Party’s (UNP) and the Pohottuwa group’s candidates will suffer a thrashing defeat. Both the UNP and Pohottuwa put together would not be able to win a single council and that would be disastrous not only for Ranil Wickremesinghe personally but also for the Pohottuwa group. The fake political stability that Ranil has been trying to portray to the outside world will be shattered and restructuring process of our debts and the attitude and workings of the International Monitory Fund (IMF) might face a new dynamic of instability. After such a disastrous performance at the LG elections, the winning party or parties (most probably NPP, SJB and TNA) would not take the win and go home peacefully. However, what Ranil would do with the dissolution of Parliament after March 2023 is much an uncertainty. Ranil would not be able to tell the Pohottuwa parliamentarians to ‘go to hell’ if the defeat of the UNP would be greater than that of the Pohottuwa.

The consequential outflow from a victory of the NPP, SJB and TNA would invariably end up on the streets of the big cities as well as the rural areas. Ranil and the government really need to pay more serious attention to what follows the election results in the interior of the country. The writer’s projection is that Ranil will resort to a new wave of suppression in the event of an emergence of another Aragalaya.

2. NPP and SJB

Depending on which party secures the highest number of councils, that party will dominate the ensuing political conversation. If the NPP manages to outdo the SJB, it’s a clear signal to the country that the NPP, an extension of the old Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), is being accepted as a mainstream political entity and a majority of the voters are ready to acknowledge the NPP coalition as a serious contender in future elections. At the same time, a clear-cut victory at the LG elections would buttress the position in relation to the forthcoming Parliamentary and Presidential elections.

3. The Country

The country would eventually rally around both NPP and SJB and the people, specifically the rural folks would be more vociferous in the coming protests and other anti-government activities that would be planned by the opposition. On the other hand, if a riotous and chaotic state ensues, the international perception of the country would not be so encouraging, nor would it be conducive to a favorable response from the donor-nations.

Option B. Elections are postponed or canceled on Ranil’s Orders

1. Ranil Wickreeasinghe & Pohottuwa

There might be very temporary time for Ranil and the Pohottuwa parliamentarians to have a breather. Yet such a decision would be perceived as a drastic and desperate one the consequences of which cannot be advantageous to either Ranil or the Pohottuwa group. The resultant mass uprising would manifest some of the more unacceptable features by a peaceful people. A potentiality of violence is no substitute for a dictatorial regime that Ranil’s government would become if the aforementioned scenario is the outcome. In such a setting the short-term advantage would be to Ranil and Pohottuwa but the mid-term and long-term advantages would eventually flow towards the country’s opposition politicians.

2. NPP and SJB

In the case of the second option being the reality, the NPP would have a clearer advantage over the SJB in that, the more aggressive and belligerent political party being the NPP. The SJB would be forced to take time to decide on their next move. Sajith Premadasa is not a leader who is used to taking quick decisions. And the other second tier leaders in the SJB, except perhaps Sarath Fonseka, would not exit from their comfort zone. This is where Sarath Fonseka would have a much clearer path to tread as the followers of the SJB would rather follow a more decisive and a stoical leader than a one who is vacillating and dithering at every important juncture of a political journey.

3. The Country

The country would be in chaos. If the economic conditions refuse to bend towards improvement, not in terms of GDP or stock market figures, but in real terms that are palpably understood by the ordinary masses, the political unrest would amplify and measures that would be taken to contain such a riotous and chaotic situation could border on draconian suppression and even shooting some uncontainable crowds. It will not be good sight to behold.

Option C. LG elections are not held as per Supreme Court Decision

1. Ranil Wickremesinghe & Pohottuwa

This is the best scenario Ranil and the Pohottuwa boys could wish for. Being the last arm of the judiciary system, the Supreme Court in Sri Lanka is still held in good stead (may not be in high esteem) but at least in the context of upholding law and order in the country. A decision arrived by the justices of the Supreme Court cannot be disregarded on any account. It gives a very convenient and plausible exit strategy for both Ranil Wickremesinghe and his Pohottuwa group of parliamentarians. How far Ranil would extend his influence, if he has any, towards a decision favorable to him, one does not know. It would tantamount to be a contempt of court if one tries to express any idea that would stain the ‘good’ name of our judicial system.

2. NPP and SJB 

Ranil’s advantage is the disadvantage for both NPP and SJB. It will be more so for the NPP than for the SJB. Sajith Premadasa may be wishing for such a scenario as the event of postponement or cancelation of the LG elections happens following Supreme Court ruling, would benefit him and his cohorts in the SJB as the SJB is perceived as a more patient and passive opponent than the NPP. 

3. The Country

This may be the most assuaging state of affairs for the country at large, at least in the very short run. As far as Ranil Wickremesinghe’s ability to place the country’s affairs in a more favorable light is concerned, if the economic conditions continue to remain as they are now or even become worse, then what happens after a Supreme Court decision to postpone LG elections will become moot. 

Observations

Whatever Ranil Wickremesinghe decides to do, postponing of LG polls is not a desirable matter. In 1988/89 era, with two wars paralyzing the country, LTTE in the North and JVP in the South, the then government held two elections, Presidential and Parliamentary, without a murmur. Ranil Wickremesinghe or his Pohottuwa-henchmen should not be allowed to interfere with our election process. It is undemocratic, it is illegitimate and it is simply wrong in every sense of the word. What Ranil would do with the prorogation of parliament, whether he would resort to that infamous tactic of procrastination wishing such a move would ultimately produce a more pleasant outcome is foolhardy and naïve. We should have not time for such naiveté. However, one must not forget two personalities, other than Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Sajith. They are Sarath, Fonseka and Patali Champika Ranawaka. Both, one can see, are getting ready for a fiercer and more decisive fight.

*The writer can be contacted at vishwamithra1984@gmail.com