29 September, 2020

Blog

Medium-Term Debt, Deficit & Investment Scenarios Are Gloomy: Sri Lanka’s Bleak Economic Outlook

By Kumar David

Prof. Kumar David

There is a tendency, natural perhaps, to read essays on the economy through tinted glasses asking “Which side is he supporting?” Certainly, I do have an axe to grind in future elections, but not in this essay because the bottom line, details aside, is valid whether the government is UNP or SLPP. You can disagree about party politics and still find my story interesting, so read it on its merits. There are four ways in which the economic outlook can be examined in the medium-term; the national debt, crucially dollar-denominated (foreign) debt, second export prospects and trade deficits and balances, third fiscal (budget) issues and finally investment and growth.

A plethora of numbers does not illustrate, it conceals truth in a sea of details. For this reason, I will minimise statistics and when used keep the picture broad. Central Bank stats for the first half of 2018 are available and I have multiplied by two with minor adjustments to give an all-year picture. I have used dollar depictions as I don’t know where the rupee will be in say six months. Year 2018 GDP will be about $92 billion and the annual growth rate about 6.3%; at year end debt will be $72 billion (78% of GDP) of which $33 billion (36% of GDP) will be foreign and domestic debt will be $39 billion (42% of GDP) but in rupees. Nearly a quarter of foreign debt is owed to China. Servicing (interest and repayment), recycling debt and fresh loans will entail borrowing about $2 billion foreign and rupees equivalent to a further $2 billion, on average, in each future year. 

The debt-spiral into the abyss

The lethal threat confronting Lanka is indebtedness. Since independence this country can boast that it has never defaulted on its dues, but the Sisyphean task of taking new debt to service existing debt has gone on and on. This is a recipe for sinking further into debt and growth stagnation. My column of 9 September was about governments, businesses and households mired in global debt. The creditor on the other side of the balance-sheet is the so-called 1% (actually about 8.6%) global ultra-rich. I followed this last week (7 October) depicting how this intertwines with the rise of finance-capital to global dominance. This underpins my approach to Rajapaksa Populism and its class bases in my 23 and 30 September columns. Inquiry must be up to date, not regurgitation of discourses of past decades – Siri Gamage’s October 7 lament about my pieces. Still, his intervention though an old hat is useful. It is time to integrate a theory of finance-capital into the analysis. Readings on neo-populism scrutinise evolving class relations in modern, actually existing, capitalism. On both counts it is vital that understanding keeps pace with emergent reality.

It is very difficult, ‘structurally difficult’, for countries and firms to escape the debt spiral; ‘structural’ means the way things are organised and the way things get done. I cannot repeat it all here but the core concept is that in a finance-capital dominated world it is near impossible to escape the tyranny of compound-interest, or avoid taking on new debt to service existing debt, or avoid forced sale of prized national assets, vide Hambantota Port. In the coming years, an unable-to-service-debt Lanka may have to sell off part of the public domain to pare down debt. The Petroleum Corporation, CEB, Colombo Harbour, Port City, a future LNG supply monopoly and above all Mannar Basin if worthwhile deposits are confirmed, are potential targets. Predators for projects on this scale will be international with local firms as front offices. 

Indebtedness of Asian countries

Lanka’s primary revenue account (that is without capital expenditure and debt servicing) has been pretty much in balance for the last several years. It is debt servicing that is driving the country to the wall. In simple words, if not weighed down by the need to service accumulated debt, Lanka would not need additional borrowing except for capital works. To make it worse repayment (amortisation) is lumpy as tranches fall due at different times. Year 2019 is pretty bad; the government will have to cough up $4.4 billion for debt servicing. No way can it find this from revenue or magically expanded export earnings. It will have to roll over debt. You may recall my two articles detailing the clutches of compound-interest and countries sinking deeper into slavery to global finance-capital. The $ 4.4 billion due in 2019 cannot be met from reserves either, which stand at just $9 billion, without fear of starving in an emergency.

I am glad that the CP’s DEW Gunasekara and the LSSP’s Tissa Vitarana have intervened on economic issues. The challenge is more than domestic, more than the incompetence of yahapalana or the corruption and ignorance of the Rajapaksas. Debt enslavement is global, the well-oiled machinery of global financial-capital lends money that it knows cannot be repaid; the end point is privatisation of the public domain as in Chile, Argentina and Greece. The Greek bailout was on condition 50 billion Euros of public assets be eventually transferred to foreign and domestic creditors. Lanka cannot fight global finance-capital in isolation; it must seek international alliances. And for the Left, a return to Internationalism is a must. 

The trade-deficit and exports

Any donkey knows that if a country enjoys a large trade surplus (goods and services) and boasts a surplus in its current account (that is including other inflows and outflows) it can pay down debt and escape purgatory. But not every donkey seems to appreciate that when a crisis is acute it is impossible to achieve a trade surplus in the short term by the magic of “export orientation”. Although 10% improvement in exports was achieved in 2017, imports burgeoned by a larger amount. Bear in mind that in 2017 exports were $11 billion while imports were nearly double at $21 billion. The trade deficit will worsen in 2018 because about 30% of the import bill is spent on petroleum, gas, and coal for the CEB. At the time of writing the price of oil has risen to $85 a barrel and is forecast to go up further – in recent years it stayed between $50 and $60. Oil will drag all energy prices up with it

Of course firming the economy with an eye to export orientation is good but that’s a medium if not longer-term perspective. Lanka will be drained by debt before that. The immediate option is to curb luxuries and reduce non-essential imports.  Urgent measures, if accompanied by growth will be accepted by the public; restrictions can be eased in a year if the economy improves. To reiterate, the emergency step has to be unpopular and un-UNP import curbs; there is no alternative. But the crux is not imports and exports; it is the absence of an investment and growth strategy. 

The budget

Revenue and current account expenditure have been pretty much in balance in recent years at about 13% of GDP (except 2016 when revenue dropped below 2% and 2018 when it may rise to 16% due to higher VAT). Revenue is low because of poor collection, evasion, loopholes, the rich not taxed at adequate rates, and inheritance and capital-gains tax rates too low or inapplicable to many. Revenue targets must be set at 25% of GDP – in European countries it is higher. I do not see this happening here, UNP or SLPP. 

As important as revenue-expenditure relations are for survival, inadequate revenue adversely affects capital expenditure. For the last 30 years (after the last Mahaveli project) nothing much has been done except China supported wasteful infrastructure.  I have no illusion that Ranil or Rajapaksa will raise revenue as suggested in the previous para or push forward productive industrial and capital projects, but I flag this concern to give readers a perspective. It is a class issue; not only domestic but also global class relations; the IMF/ADB/IBRD and in a way China too factor in. 

Investment and growth

For ten years Rajapaksa regimes did nothing to enhance production, only built airports sans airplanes, concert halls sans an audience, needle towers that are useless for signal relaying and cricket stadiums at which even gudu is not played. Senseless billions down the drain. The current yahapalana lot frittered away three years chasing liberal-bourgeois illusions (Ranil-Malik-Chartiita-Eran-Harsha mantra now joined by Mangala) and has nothing to show in economic achievement. Politically it fell flat on its face on 10 February 2018. This shambles was the low-point of the UNP, and decapitation was Sirisena and the SLFP’s end game. 

I could jeer “I told you so!” pointing to my three years of writing on an alternative economic strategy; but bigshots don’t know of the existence of this humble column. I sketched an alternative to liberal-capitalism; in a word it is state-directed intervention – dirigisme economics – which has proved successful in about half a dozen Asian countries and recently caught India’s eye. The Central Bank Governor recently said: “Current monetary policy is appropriate to address prevailing imbalances in the external sector”. Maybe, but the point is not monetary policy, it’s the government’s lack of economic vision. But, more seriously, jeering would be a pyric victory; is Lanka to throw yahapalana out and bring back the tyranny of Rajapaksa? Hobson’s choice!

You know there is a Trump Base in America, unshakeable even were DJ to take his pants off and dance the jig on Broadway; likewise, there is a Never-again-Rajapaksa (NaR) base here. Its 10 February minimum was the minorities and a third of the Sinhalese; that’s NaR’s rock bottom. The point is that though the economy will not improve in yahapalana’s final year, NaR will not erode further. In stock-market jargon NaR voters have “factored-in” poor economic performance.

DEW and Tissa’s turn to economics, if sustained by a robust campaign and firmed up by concrete proposals, can be useful in two ways. First it could push yahapalana to a few better-late-than-never policy shifts and stir class skirmishes in the UNP. Second and far more important, it could blunt Rajapaksa Populism’s racist narrative. If the left within Rajapaksa’s fold were to confront and check racism internally, of course it would be helpful. One final point and I’m done: Broadly, what are the two left-lumps doing? One is conjoined to Rajapaksa’s buttocks, the other waits patiently for Ranil to pass gas on a new constitution. As for the JVP, it is lost in never-never land. The muddle on the left defies logic. I must stop; it’s bad for my hypertension. 

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Latest comments

  • 5
    2

    There should be a debt cancellation movement globally for Asia, Africa and Latin-America.

    • 4
      3

      Right on Laksiri, There should be protests outside ADB which is the biggest debt holder and Japan embassy and World Bank that also a big holders of debt in Sri Lanka for debt cancellation, as they have put the country into the debt trap and bailout business with Fake development Aid.
      Fake developme aid benefits donor country. Japan which also owns and operates ADB has flooded Lanka with Japanese cars and loans for expensive highways and there is not interest in public transport like trains as a result.
      There was a lot of Fake News that China is responsible for Lanka’s debt trap but this is not so. China has only 10.3 percent of Lanka’s debt. Rather, it is the “traditional” Paris Club donors, Japan and Washington (ADB, JICA, World Bank, IMF) that has put Lanka in the debt trap and “Bail Out Business” (Please see Transnational Institute in Amsterdam’s Report on the Greek Bail Out Business which is an eye opener). China did not put Argentina or Greece in debt trap, it was the World Bank IMF Washington Consensus.
      In fact,
      Also, to deal with debt crisis, Lanka should go for Renminibi, Yuan bonds and keep buying oil and selling tea to Iran and ignore Trump’s sanctions against Iran.
      Also Sri Lanka must reduce military spending in next budget as this is the biggest drain on the economy, although Trump wants to militarize Lanka and Indian Ocean against China.

    • 3
      3

      Right on Laksiri, There should be protests outside ADB which is the biggest debt holder and Japan embassy and World Bank that also a big holders of debt in Sri Lanka for debt cancellation, as they have put the country into the debt trap and bailout business with Fake development Aid.
      Fake developme aid benefits donor country. Japan which also owns and operates ADB has flooded Lanka with Japanese cars and loans for expensive highways and there is not interest in public transport like trains as a result.
      There was a lot of Fake News that China is responsible for Lanka’s debt trap but this is not so. China has only 10.3 percent of Lanka’s debt. Rather, it is the “traditional” Paris Club donors, Japan and Washington (ADB, JICA, World Bank, IMF) that has put Lanka in the debt trap and “Bail Out Business” (Please see Transnational Institute in Amsterdam’s Report on the Greek Bail Out Business which is an eye opener). China did not put Argentina or Greece in debt trap, it was the World Bank IMF Washington Consensus.
      In fact, Japan is Washington’s proxy in Asia.
      Also, to deal with debt crisis, Lanka should go for Renminibi, Yuan bonds and keep buying oil and selling tea to Iran and ignore Trump’s sanctions against Iran.
      Also Sri Lanka must reduce military spending in next budget as this is the biggest drain on the economy, although Trump wants to militarize Lanka and Indian Ocean against China.

      • 3
        3

        The Sri Lanka’s accumulated foreign debt is estimated at $55 billion. Chinese lenders hold 10.3% of this total, Japan accounts for 12%, the Asian Development Bank 14% and the World Bank 11%.8. This is according to the Central Bank Report and also the Nikkei Asian Review.

        The play on the rupee and the crashing the Sri Lanka economy by Central Bank head and Bondscam Ranil who looted the Central Bank with the advice of Washington’s Economic Hit men – MCC and IMF clear to put Sri Lanka in IMF bailout business and control POLICY SPACE and POLICY PROCESS.
        Sri Lanka is being deliberately targeted to prise it out of China’s sphere in the Cold War between China and US. Lanka is now in the Washington “debt trap and Bail out business” and we see the Art of the Deal unfolding from Trumpland.
        Washington and its Asian proxy, Japan, whose dubious Namura Ratings (which bought Lehman brothers after the 2008 financial crash) gave the signal and is crashing the Lankan rupee.
        US is shopping to buy strategic assets – land and transport sector infrastructure cheap in Sri Lanka at this time.
        Also, a perfect storm was created with Fake News regarding a Rajapaksa come back with 2 US citizens, Basil and Gota, and the Fake news assassination plot against Sira and Gota to distract media from the crashing economy and rupee with the Bondscame Ranil, Sira, US citizens Rajapaksa power struggle after MR’s visit to Delhi.
        Thus, On Oct 05, 2018 Colombo: Executive Vice President of the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) David Bohigian and other U.S. government officials visited Sri Lanka The trip was to promote U.S. investment in the region and strengthened cooperation with regional allies to drive economic growth and stability, the U.S. Embassy in Colombo said.
        OPIC is targeting Land and transport infrastructure in Sri Lanka for strategic security interests of USA in Indian Ocean region.

        • 3
          2

          With Economic Hit men from IMF and Right wing Millennium Challenge Corp (MCC) writing Bondscam Ranil’s neoliberal economic policy, Sri Lanka is headed to be like Haiti – another Island that was played by US hit men and CIA. Or Greece or Argentina. Haiti more likely.
          Sri Lanka has been primed for “Asset Stripping” by the Global 1 percent as it is now in ADB, WB and IMF debt trap and “Bail Out Business”.

          Very important, Lanka needs an independent Foreign Policy to continue trade with Iran – buying oil and selling tea. It also should reduce dependency on USD.

          In a nutshell, Lanka’s economic policy is now controlled and designed by foreign economic hit men or Fake advisors — to benefit global 1 percent and put “America First”.

    • 3
      0

      Laksiri,

      In an unprecedented historically low interest-rate environment ……… if you borrow at high interest rates to build non-productive assets/crap in Hambanthota ……… no amount of debt-cancellation movements are going to solve the problem ………. only going to exacerbate …………. encourage the imbeciles to borrow more and waste/loot

      Just imagine…….. if all the debt was cancelled during Mahinda Rajapakse’s reign! ………. We would be in a worse situation than now ………… because the expectations would be high that the debt-cancellation movements would be able to cancel-out future debt too! ……….. This is not an “economic” defect ……….. but a mental defect of the leaders/people of the respective societies.

      It’s a bit rich to blame other countries about our debt …….. without examining how we got into this mess in the first place ………… and laying the blame squarely at the feet of our leaders …….. and the Einsteins/voters who support them.



      Read the last section of ” Checkmate Politics II – Diminishing options for MS, MR and RW” by Rajan Philips

  • 2
    3

    KUMAR DAVID: I Am not saying any of the govt including that of CBK and Mahinda Rajapakse were responaible and knew what they were doing. What you, an engineer, writing is complatr CRAP. I checked the IMF – articlexs for the present economic situation In ASIA. You have written that China is in severe debt. that is the most humongous lie. If you can prove it give us the reference article. the date you have given may match the USA. Many countries that USA worked closely have gone bankrupt or are are economically destroyed. Brazil was doing very well some time ago, and Became a member of BRICS. Brazil is economically devasted but not South Africa. Ukraine, Venezuela, Pakisthan (close to China), Sri lanka are among the countries that went bust. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfI6ljpRmHQ. Listen to thsi You tiube clip. they explain how since 2012, Sri lankan rupee is being devalued. and it is crashed for days. Sri lankan had been money printing since 1980s and for the last two decades or so money printing has gone up EXPONENTIALLY. Sri lankan ruppe’s buying power has gpne down by about 40%. World bank’s claim last year was that Sri lanka’s GDP this year (2018) would be zero. Only good thing is we do not have any debt installements to pay. In 2017, Ajith Kumaraswami has pumped so much new ruppes into the Sri lankan market.

  • 2
    4

    You are just a dishonest Crook. I am pretty sure you are getting some peanuts for this article. Other than that you are writing for somebody in order to fool the Journalists who are writing articles to major newspapers. what you are writing is Bull$shit. Every Sri lankan govt has screwed up Sri lanka. Rani is not a visionary either. He is worsening it. Ranil’s LLB and Mangala Samraweera’s Lingerie designing knowledge what does it bring anything to the finzacial management of a country. At least it should have been handed over to a woman who knew how to manage the budget in her house. RAVI the LIAR was caught red handed for money laundering which he escaped because it is the Sri lankan system, He would have done better a s a finance minister if he was in a honest govt. If not he woulbe fattening his bank accoutns related to the businesses.

  • 1
    1

    The most recent Global problem is TURKEY which is getting closed to russia had some monmey problems. they strenghtened thier LIRA with some other means. so, the dollar strenghtned and money of every emerging market is crashing. Sri lanka went into a recession some where in 2012 I suppose. Now, Sri lanka is in Depression India had it’s own problems. They tried to screw up India. Some how Modi got around of it, besides Indis is an manufacturing country. what is our GDP is for. Can you explain that the major revenue is remittences from women and men working over seas.

  • 2
    2

    Global financial world work in a strange way. None of the Educated are ciritically thinking. what I say, Sri lanka is keeping about $ 9 billion foreign exchange as reserve. that is a stupid move. IT is good to dilute amercian debt and the share debt burdon of america. Say we keep, because IMF wants it that way, exahnge ceiling at $ 9 billion. when the dolalr crashes and if becomes 50%, what would be the value of money, decreased by 50%. That is coming.

  • 0
    3

    Sack Mangala and Indrajith Kumaraswamy today and appoint Ravi Karunanayake as Finance Minister. Country’s economy will prosper.

  • 2
    1

    6.3 % Annual Growth ….Where did this Doctor Pull it out from?..
    CB itself said they will be pushing to end the year with 3.5 %
    Besides , Lanakawe didn’t have 6.3 % even when Rajapaksas were building Freeways to Hambantota.

    Dr Ranil and his Economic Panel sold Magampura for 1.5 Billion..
    It would have been worth at least 10 – 15 Billion USD in 2030, based on the appreciation of such significant projects in the other parts of the World which are not even as important or as strategic as Hambantota.

    Just imagine how much it will be worth in 99 years, when the Chinese get the auto renewal for another 99 years.
    Our inhabitants then would be forced to curse the Politikkas who did this to them..
    That is denying them the ownership of their own national Assets.

    Lanakawe is now totally rooted.
    Once Dr Ranil sells Hilton, Trinco, Palalay, Southern Freeway , BOC, and Katunayaka ,our Inhabitants among the 70 % would have Jack Shit to call their own.

    Dr Ranil and his Rogue Brigade have done well out of re arranging the Loan Book .
    Young Sujeeva the Blue Eyed Boy of the Colombo Elite, who is destined to be their future Leader became a Multi Millionnaire with just one Yahapalana Permit which he sold to a Muslim merchant.
    No one knows how much he got for that Book on Bond Trading from Aloysious .
    Latest is young Sujeen is asking 10 % to approve a mega project ..
    That is the Bench Mark of the Economic Management which is set by the Yahapalana Government.

    Foreigners have to pump in Dollars in Bonds or in Loans to lift the Ruppiah.
    Because Lankawe’s whole Economy is smaller than a Market Cap of even a Medium Size Company in Europe or Australia.
    And Lankawe can not earn enough to pay for the imports.

    • 3
      0

      KASmaalam K A Sumanasekera

      “6.3 % Annual Growth ….Where did this Doctor Pull it out from?..”

      Central Bank figures:
      Quarter 2 2015 7.1 %
      Quarter 3 2015 5.9%
      Quarter 1 2016 5.9%
      Quarter 3 2016 4.5%
      Quarter 4 2016 5.4%

      • 0
        0

        Dear Native,
        You must have picked these from the same place where he pulled it out….

        Here are some real Stats f if you can comprehend.

        Agri Output 2017 Negative 0.8 from 4.6 in 2011

        Industrial Output 3.9 from 9.3 in 2011

        Services 3.1 from 8.5 in 2011

        No wonder the Ass is falling off Dr Ranil’s Yahapalana Ruppiah..

        Stick with you day job and continue Sinhala Buddhist bashing….

        • 2
          0

          KASmaalam K A Sumanasekera

          “Stick with you day job and continue Sinhala Buddhist bashing….”

          Bashing Sinhala/Buddhism is right.
          Bashing Sinhala/Buddhism works.
          Bashing Sinhala/Buddhism clarifies,cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit.
          Bashing Sinhala/Buddhism, in all of its forms, has marked the upward surge of mankind.

          Try once and you will see, sense, smell, the change will make you feel better.

          • 0
            0

            NV
            Carry out your Sinhala Buddhist bashing among the Tamils (Tamil speaking people ) in Sinhala majority areas. Tell them that Sinhalese are dangerously genocidal. Educate their children that with the Ealam on the horizon it is best to start moving now, for their own good. Tell them that Ealam is not just a Holiday Resort as Sumathitharan is promoting , that is where all Tamils will build their paradise away from this vicious Sinhala Buddhist lot. Help me in my mission. The moment the first family starts packing up I tòo will switch mý sides.

            Soma

  • 2
    3

    Dumbos in this Government keep on saying that President Rajapakse called Presidential election two years earlier because he was scared to face the debt repayment. President Rajapakse did not call the election to lose and run away. He knew that he has to face that challenge if he won and probably he would have faced the challenge better than the dumbos who bragged that they know how to fix the economy. Harsha the big talker said when we stop corruption there will be enough money. May be he was not aware of what his boss had in his mind.

    • 0
      0

      Once you declare the innings, and know that it is over, you do not raid the pitch and ask for replay. You wait for the next match and then try to win that.
      .
      That is exactly what MR was trying to do, first with Nugegoda, pilgrimage, then the Mawatti tour, followed recently with the Gon March.
      .
      And the purpose of all this is not victory for the team but to make the dumb looking, dumb talking, dumb thinking son as the next Captain, who seems to love the legs before the wicket.
      .
      Okay. MR we can accept. But not the Gon son who seems to think he is the cock of the walk.

  • 2
    0

    Sri lankan problems are all by Sri lankan politicians. You are trying to clean Ranil. Yet thre truth is CBK could not pass SSC or O/L in Sri lanka. Mahinda Rajapske’s only goal is to provide something to his children and his extended family. His subordinated had to listen to him. Country was his own personal targets and wealthe. Ranil i sno different. He is trying to be an educated, expert and everything. Yet he doe snot know what to do. IF not, why he built Economic vision 20-25 or vision 2025 and not one from 2015 0r 2016. He did not know what was happening to Sri lanka when he was APPOINTED AS THE PM. one article said zambia is going through financial hardhips because of one western country and they want zambia to be the SRILANKA IN AFRICA. when Central baks asked stops unconventional imports, Mangala Stopped importing cars for MPs for one year. Probably, they do not need cars until the elelction is over. Pakisthan is done finacially. they stopped producing one of their cars. Myanmar is safe because of the Chinese influence. for everything Maithripala Says I know some is going on I am trying to understand. VOTE me for the next time, I will solve ll those. but, at present he is making only negligible changes.

  • 1
    0

    Kumar David looks with a lens made from numbers to conclude that Sri Lanka’s economic outlook is bleak and gloomy (to boot)!
    .
    Currencies have always depreciated (overall) against a dominant currency which in turn depreciated on its own. GBP was dominant but now is the US$. Did not matter because the change was between ‘cousins’.
    .
    This ‘depreciation’ phenomena seems to be a necessary ingredient to keep the current economic system going. This economic system promotes ‘Rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer’.
    A side effect of this system is the rise and rise of the culture of corruption/nepotism/impunity.
    The drivers of this economic system are prepared to risk the climate change!
    .
    To cut a long story short Kumar David: We have made things worse by our own actions. Another abjectly bad example is Zimbabwe. Nigeria is not far behind.
    .
    But wait. The dominant place of US$ may get replaced by an alien currency. What if US$ gets a sudden devaluation? Not unthinkable.

  • 0
    0

    For this fellow, anybody is ok including Ranil-Malik-Chartiita-Eran-Harsha, now joined by Mangala but Never-again-Rajapaksa (NaR). The so called “economic” narrative is all geared towards trying to exonerate yahapalana cabal (saying in so many words that the forces at play are outside their control though that does not apply when it comes to Rajapakse, i.e. the GFC, oil going above $100 pb or the war itself). That is the essence of KD “economics”. Nothing else.

    It is yahapalana pundits who tell us that the depreciation of the rupee is very good for us (like the proverbial overturned boat). According to them there’s no crisis.

Leave A Comment

Comments should not exceed 200 words. Embedding external links and writing in capital letters are discouraged. Commenting is automatically disabled after 7 days and approval may take up to 24 hours. Please read our Comments Policy for further details. Your email address will not be published.