By S. Sivathasan –
S. Sivathasan
Brimming with confidence in every step and posture, Prime Minister Narendra Modi supported to the hilt by a chosen few of the Union Cabinet, forayed into the state elections in Karnataka. In all a dedicated team of forty composed by the PM fanned out into 224 constituencies to collect 130 seats or more and place those instruments of power at the feet of Modi. What started as a little snowball 12 days ago is today an unstoppable giant. How large it is will be known on May 10th when poll closes. On May13, counting will reveal the exact magnitude of BJP victory. As of now Amit Shah the architect of victory in 2014 and 2019 has a forecast 130 seats. Likewise astute minds including Annamalai, one among those spearheading the state election has placed the BJP victory mark at 130 + seats. Quite a large number concur in this figure.
When the election campaign was launched the voters had the template of BJP governance that had changed the face of several states in India. Karnataka itself had experienced the benefits of BJP’s trajectory of growth. What a contrast it was to the successive stagnant terms of Congress. Yet it was unable to recognize the developing chasm between the challenger and the challenged. Neither did the Congress wake up to the wisdom of drawing up an attractive programme of good governance and development. Congress could speak only of non-existent corruption. Sillier still was railing against BJP’s incumbency. Has Singapore’s PAP had the distaste of incumbency even after 11 terms of consecutive governance? Did not Malaysia with as many or more elections have the pleasure of success. Rational analysis and comparisons with other countries will be enriching.
A team of forty in high positions of state with electioneering experience among diverse ethnicities, honeycombing a single state was more than a match for the Congress ensemble. The Modi juggernaut thundered through several electorates along more than 50 KMs over the last four days. While the preparations by the team had made the iron hot, Modi beat it to advantage and is reaping the benefits of hefty votes. Modi mystique reached the polity through the efficacy of Road Shows. Substantial tilting of the voter mind was ensured thereby.
While Modi set the pace, Amit Shah’s Booth Committees arranged for the ardent supporters of the BJP to change voter consciousness through comparable Road Shows. The next 2 days will be devoted by the mass of voters to chewing the cud and assimilating the message of the BJP.
At hand to Amit Shah, is an able lieutenant in K. Annamalai. The BJP has appointed him, co in charge for a substantial number of electorates in and around Bangaluru, Karnataka. It is an unprecedented move for the party leader of one state to work in an adjacent state in nearly a third of the electorates. Having had a 10 year tenure of splendid IPS tenure in Bangaluru, now he has captivated the hearts and minds of its citizens. With his untiring efforts for months he has reached the voters having the advantage of great fluency in Tamil and Kannada. Sensing assured victory, he has declared 130 plus seats for BJP.
The writer dismissing the proud boasts of the Congress, saw its negative tilt by 26th April and positive demise by early May. The BJP is getting a sure 130 if not more.
AYATHURAY RAJASINGAM / May 9, 2023
BJP is likely to receive almost two-third of the seats. Even the Tribal community is supporting the BJP. The Hindus have become vigilant in Karnataka. People in Karnataka are rallying round the BJP and are welcoming the economic policy of the BJP.
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chiv / May 10, 2023
Mr. Sivathasan and Ayathuray , remember the last count of BJP, and porching of Congress turncoats to form state government. Yet impressed to see
the mighty influence of Modi on 24 / 7 digital / IT Samghis working on Hindutva project outside of India and their diaspora. Hope the voters will not repeat the blunders of 6.9 Million Pohotowaas.
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old codger / May 12, 2023
Chiv,
The election is over, and it seems the BJP is behind. We’ll know for sure by Sunday.
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SJ / May 13, 2023
Far behind
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chiv / May 13, 2023
Mr. Sivathasan, this comment is not to rub salt on wound. But early poll counting trends indicate, clear majority to Congress (without third party support) in recent Karnataka elections. Though Modi and Shah made multiple visits to campaign they had nothing to offer , other than promoting their usual Hindutva dream. Whereas Congress was smart this time , to focus on local issues like corruption, poor roads, cost of living, struggles of low / middle income group, cow / religion vigilante, suppression of minorities, unemployment, Covid / CAA sagas……… As long Annamalai is concerned, he cannot even make a dent in TN and expecting anything further in neighbor states is nothing but a dream. What should be the real concern for BJP is their state leader BSY ( who actually made it possible for BJP to get a foothold in South) with a strong support base is currently trailing in most places, in his own bastion called Shivmoga ( where BJP has had no real challenge, for decades).
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chiv / May 13, 2023
There is still hope for BJP. Last elections Congress with alliance had slim majority to form government. But within two years BJP bought more than 10 by offering large sum of money / bribe and ministerial positions. So Congress needs a landslide and not just simple majority to form government. Keeping this in mind it’s not even noon, Congress has called all its candidates to Bangalore, so that they can be protected from horse trading.
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chiv / May 13, 2023
To be accurate, in last elections BJP had 104 ( majority is 113 out of 224 ), Congress – 76, regional party JD (S)- 37, independent – 3. A year later BJP poached 17 MLA’s from two parties and formed own government.
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Paul / May 13, 2023
‘Hope the voters will not repeat the blunders of 6.9 Million Pohotowaas.’
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They will. Fools don’t learn from their own mistakes but only complete idiots don’t learn from the mistakes of others. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/12/trouble-at-the-temple-ban-on-muslims-a-sign-of-indias-new-intolerance
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old codger / May 13, 2023
Paul,
Since the Congress has trashed the BJP in the elections, I suppose we won’t be hearing from Mr. Sivathasan for the next 4 years….
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SJ / May 13, 2023
OC
Despite claims to cynicism, you have a powerful streak of optimism running in you.
Tamilnadu elections are coming next. Mr S will explain to us how the Congress cheated its way in Karnataka and how the clever Tamils will not tolerate such nonsense from the DMK.
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SJ / May 13, 2023
Paul
Electoral politics is such that public opinion is vulnerable to media manipulation and various dirty tricks.
The voter in any parliamentary democracy is as vulnerable as we are. As individuals we cannot deal with a whole array of issues and whatever appears most pressing catches out attention. Problems are presented in ways that distort reality.
When we are conditioned to think that terrorism is the problem to address, we choose a party that we consider best fitted to deal with it.
In one country it could be Muslims, in another (once decades ago) communism, in quite a few the immigrant, and so on.
By the time we wake up the world has moved on and we are stuck where we were.
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Ajay Sundara Devan / May 10, 2023
These are two nut cases supporting India’s equivalent of Sinhala Buddhist authoritarianism. Same bigotry, ignorance, and hatred. These vermin have more in common with Gnanasara, Weerasekera, Weerawansa and Ampitiye Sumanarathana than with the average Tamil person.
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AYATHURAY RAJASINGAM / May 11, 2023
Ajay Sundara Devan,
It is India’s Finance Minister, Nirmala Seetharaman, who had predicted that the people of Karnataka had ignored the Congress. She knows about Karnataka. When Sri Lanka was undergoing severe financial difficulties, it is Nirmala Seetharaman who gave a helping hand to Sri Lanka to overcome its difficulties. As a result even Gnanasara, Weerasekera, Weerawansa and Ampitiye Sumanarathana, etc enjoying the benefits thereof. Now India has pushed the move for amalgamating the North-East Provinces, despite the negotiations between Ranil Wickremasinghe and the Tamil political leaders headed by Sampanthan. Let us watch the development.
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P.Rajeswaran / May 11, 2023
Mr.Sivathasan,
According to media outlets there is reason to believe that BJP will win the Gujarath state election. This may in turn Reflect at the general election too.
BJP government with the administrative machinery under its control has taken decisive strides during its term to build up the economy to bring the country in par with other super powers in the region.
Your article is very incisive and descriptive. It is only possible through exhaustive study of materials and sources. Highly appreciable.
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P.Rajeswaran / May 11, 2023
Correction –
Not GUJARATH state, it is Karnataka.
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SJ / May 13, 2023
PR
You may, after the elections, perhaps have been happy to have left it as Gujarat.
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Ajay Sundara Devan / May 11, 2023
Mr. AYATHURAY RAJASINGAM:
Try to be more intelligent in understanding the interplay between India’s regional geopolitics and BJP’s fascist quest to turn India into a Hindutva majoritarian state. Modi’s government has recognized Tamil Nadu’s rational and secular politics as the biggest ideological challenge it faces in this regard. So the BJP is trying to supplant the DMK ideology with Hindutva fundamentalism in Tamil Nadu. At the same time Modi’s government is making overtures to Tamil nationalists in Sri Lanka to gain a foothold in the northeast of the island to combat the mounting Chinese intrusion too close to home. Simultaneously India is also giving ‘goodies’ to the Sri Lankan government, as you point out, in order to wean the country from its overdependence on China. Life is more complicated than you’d like it to be !
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AYATHURAY RAJASINGAM / May 13, 2023
Ajay Sundara Devan,
Agreed. People’s verdict is accepted. It is the Hijab issue that went against the BJP. Yet BJP will be victorious in Tamil Nadu at the next election. DMK has told number of lies which the people are aware in Tamil Nadu. In Tamil Nadu, DMK is in control of the Press media and majority of the film stars, Directors, Producers are Christian converts and with the DMK. Hope this will change soon.
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SJ / May 13, 2023
“It is the Hijab issue that went against the BJP.”
When we want simple answers there are plenty to choose from.
Correct answer? It is a tough proposition.
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Ajay Sundara Devan / May 11, 2023
Part II
So while the BJP is trying to crush DMK’s anti-caste, anti-Brahmin Tamil nationalism aspiring for more autonomy from the increasingly Hindutva dominated Centre, it is trying to woo Tamil nationalism in Sri Lanka by whipping up Hindu fanaticism which we never had in the country before. It is using political losers like Wigneswaran, and nobodies like Sivathasan, for this evil ‘fishing in troubled waters” strategy. Nirmala Sitharaman and Subrahmanyam Jaishankar are more Brahmin than Tamil (the latter cannot even speak Tamil) and are hardcore Hindutva fanatics. They are working loyally to advance Modi’s agenda with least concern for the welfare of Sri Lankan people including Tamils.
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old codger / May 13, 2023
ASD,
The Congress has convincingly won the election. If it doesn’t screw up, we won’t be hearing from Hindu fascists for a while, in the South at least.
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SJ / May 13, 2023
OC
Karnataka was the only state where the BJP had a foothold on its own. It still has a good following.
In the Hindi belt and Gujarat it is very strong. The Congress has no strategy yet.
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Ajay Sundara Devan / May 11, 2023
Part III
In essence Modi’s government, while weakening the semi-federal structure of the Indian state in order to crush Tamil nationalism in Tamil Nadu, is trying to promote autonomy for Sri Lankan Tamils to combat the threat posed to India’s security by China’s expansion in the region.
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SJ / May 13, 2023
“…is trying to promote autonomy for Sri Lankan Tamils to combat the threat posed to India’s security by China’s expansion in the region.”
Really?
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SJ / May 13, 2023
ASD
The Indian establishment knows all too well that the Tamil electorate can be (and is) just as daft as its Sinhala counterpart.
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Ajay Sundara Devan / May 13, 2023
Mr. Sivathasan:
The election results confirm you’re out of touch with reality or a hackwriter. Most probably both. As such your article was worthless except for a minor benefit to me. It made me look up the word: “vestibule.” What an ugly old word !
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