25 September, 2020

Blog

Murder In The Consulate; Panic In Riyadh; Balls-Up In Washington 

By Kumar David

Prof. Kumar David

Murder in the Consulate; panic in Riyadh; balls-up in Washington: Saudi Slaying Sinks American ME Policy 

Right at the start I told friends in my e-mail group that nothing would come of it; the murder would be swept under the carpet, Saudis would admit to the barest knowledge of Jamal Khashaggi’s (JK) fate, America would launder Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MBS) dirty linen and after a little fluster it would be business as usual. It is turning out to be just that notwithstanding much chest beating in the liberal media. Who cared about assassination of El Salvadorian Archbishop Oscar Ramiro by the country’s military regime except a few leftists until Pope Francis canonised him a fortnight ago? A dozen journalists are murdered each year all over the world and soon forgotten. Sirisena and Wickremesinghe have swept Lasantha’s murder under the carpet much to the relief of Gota, MR and Fony.

But there have been assassinations that changed history; Julius Caesar, Thomas à Becket, Archduke Franz Ferdinand and later Gandhi, Martin Luther King and Benigno Aquino. In comparison JK is a tiny potato and in the long-run the fallout from the murder will be zilch. Or, who knows? The Middle East is volatile and Donald Trump is bizarre, hence interesting times (as the Chinese say) may unfold.  The purpose of this column is not to keep you up to date with the news; there are better ways to do that. Where I can be useful is in political assessment. Here are likely medium-term (one to two year) scenarios in order of indicative likelihood. 

1. There will be a major reset in Middle East politics, such as transformation of the Saudi royal dictatorship, democratisation of the Gulf region or a decline in America’s power to call the shots in the region. (Likelihood 0.1%).

2. An improvement in the Middle East such as accelerated reforms in Saudi Arabia and in the Gulf, reassertion of the legitimacy of the Iran nuclear deal, ending the Saudi-American genocidal Yemen war, better US (Congressional not Trump) policy on Palestine. (Likelihood 0.9% since US-Israeli-Saudi-Middle East relationships are set in stone).

3. Removal of Crown Prince MSB from a position of power, perhaps temporarily, and implicit regime alterations and amendments in Saudi state policy. (Small, say 9% chance).

4. Bugger-all will happen (90% likely). I dare you! Show me in 6 months what has changed. 

Erdogan has been brought on board by Washington and Riyadh.  The Turkish economy is in a bad way and speculation is that Erdogan drove a hard bargain, maybe relaxation of sanctions and debt amelioration. In his much anticipated 23 October speech he revealed even less than was already known in the public domain. He did say the murder was premeditated but forgot to add that the sun rises in the East. Clearly he has cut a deal for restraint in a recipe cooked in Washington with ingredients shipped from Riyadh. He soiled himself by implicitly going along with a hoax to save MBS and letting the Saudis pick on a few fall guys such as Saad Al-Qahtari, MBS’ right-hand man and enforcer. He avoided confirming or denying the existence of audio and video tapes of the murder and dismemberment of the body.

Done! That is the important part of my piece. Let me now titillate your baser instincts with gruesome details. Turkish police have found damning evidence that JK was murdered inside the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul. The body was dismembered while KJ was still alive, packed in suitcases and taken ‘home’ in two Saudi jets which had arrived earlier in the day with 15 killers holding diplomatic passports. Investigators found toxic materials in the Consulate; operatives had chemically scrubbed the walls and painted over crucial evidence. For 17 days the Saudis lied brazenly and for 13 refused Turkey permission to search the Consulate and the Consul’s home. Trump barefacedly colluded and changed his story every two or three days. He now says: “It was a plot gone awry”.  

On audio recordings of the murder “You can hear his voice and other voices speaking Arabic; you can hear how he was tortured and murdered” many leading media outlets say. Strategically fed leaks from the Turkish prosecutor and police blew apart the lies and forced the Saudis to confess 20 days after the event. It was leaks and the international media pressure that gave Erdogan the leverage to cut a deal with Washington and Riyadh presumably on good terms for Turkey.

The comic part of the show stars Donald Trump. Following a telephone conversation with King Salman he first floated the fiction that the murder was the work of “rogue killers”. He must have recently read comic book renditions of the Arabian Nights tale Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves! Leaks from the Turkish police and prosecutor built irresistible pressure; the Saudis finally capitulated and confessed to killing KJ in the Consulate, but they plead it was not cleared by MBS. “Tell us another one, just like the other one, tell us another one do!” Trump now “awaits Saudis plans” while MBS has been put in charge of restructuring the intelligence services; a fox in charge of the chicken coop, or appointing Buddharakitha to reform Somarama’s pirivena. 

KJ’s murder ignited a global uproar and Trump was compelled to dispatch Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Riyadh to cook up “A mutually agreeable explanation that won’t implicate the Crown Prince”. In Riyadh, Pompeo smiled and dined with Salman and MBS. Of Saudi-US friendship MBS exclaimed to the media: “We are strong old allies. We face our challenges together – past, present and future”; Pompeo responded “Absolutely”; no surprise there. The story being cooked up is that Saudis admit culpability but it was an unauthorised rendition attempt that went wrong. However, the media dug up photos of four of the operative seen regularly in MBS’ company. The one who oversaw the mission has been identified as Maher Abdulaziz Mutrebas, MBS’ personal bodyguard.

There are three reasons, all simultaneously true, why Trump is bending over to shield the killers. One is that he is a mule and knows no better than to plough the same discredited furrow. The second is that he benefitted to the tune of tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars from real estate deals with the Saudis and owes them a favour; and more important he fears exposure (as with Putin). On the campaign trail he boasted of millions he had earned from Saudi deals. He is the only US President since Nixon who has not disclosed his tax returns. 

A third reason is the importance of the Middle East to the US. Trump has antagonised America’s best diplomats that he is now high and dry for good advice. Washington is in an incredible mess and Trump is out of his depth. If you sympathise with US foreign policy you may grant that US-Saudi relations are of the highest priority and should not be endangered. But that is a state-to-state matter, not a Trump family (DJ and son-in-law Jared Kushner) to MBS cosying-up matter. Trump who puts narcissism at the centre of every involvement cannot separate policy from personal profit and has muddled the two again. 

JK though a recent critic of the Saudi regime was never a dissident. He was a business operator and previously a hanger-on of the regime.  He had been an adviser to MSB and praised his reforms. He never called for regime change, only for gradual reform. He did criticise some aspects of policy such as the brutal war in Yemen. Hence it is not clear why it was essential to murder, dismember and take him back ‘home’; it must be the sheer arrogance of the Saudi royals.

The murder prompted outrage and businesses which were lining up to cash in on Saudi billions to be spent by MBS on ambitious investment programmes have been caught with their pants down. ‘Davos in the Desert’ a $900 billion investment bonanza has just started but the IMF’s Christine Lagarde and the World Bank have pulled out in embarrassment.  The biggest names in global business, the crème de la crème, the 1% of the 1%, were to be there. Now they are bolting like sheep fleeing the slaughterhouse. The rush is headed by CEOs or Presidents of Black-Stone, Black-Rock, Virgin’s Richard Branson, Standard Chartered, JP Morgan, HSBC, Credit Suisse, Ford, Uber and the like. Of course, the carrion eaters will all be back after the dust settles and repression returns to the familiar old-fashioned style much loved by big business.

Trump doggedly stayed the course insisting that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin attend until Congress forced him into a boycott. The governments of France, UK, Germany and Netherlands are also keeping away. Trump has spoken loudly of the $110 billion armaments sale to the Saudi that he negotiated during his much-feted trip. Leaving aside the morality of flooding the region with more military hardware, the Saudi regime cannot cancel the purchase since it needs killing gear for its own survival. Nor can it switch the order to Russia or China without jeopardising performance of existing hardware which is deeply plugged into American technology. 

Trump dispatched CIA Director Gina Haspel to Ankara to meet Erdogan on the morning before the latter’s sell-out speech and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin to Riyadh, probably to finalise the payoff. If anyone thought ethics of any degree prevails at the apex of international politics Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Donald John Trump and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan just gave them an ice cold shower.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Latest comments

  • 4
    0

    “But there have been assassinations that changed history; Julius Caesar, Thomas à Becket, Archduke Franz Ferdinand and later Gandhi, Martin Luther King and Benigno Aquino.”

    We nearly had to add Maithripala Sirisena to that list.Phew,narrow shave,the world had.

    • 4
      0

      Prof. Kumar David,

      RE: Murder in the Consulate; panic in Riyadh; balls-up in Washington: Saudi Slaying Sinks American ME Policy .

      The Saudis are Wahhabis and their clones, and per the prescient of Najd, they follow Satan.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hadith_of_Najd

      Didn’t somebody say Washington is the Great Satan.

      This time, the Saudi Satans, after taking over Arabia, extended their reach outside their Satanic jurisdiction.

      The Saudi Satans have the keys to the Muslim Holy places. So, the Muslims keep quiet. Ask ACJU why are they keeping quiet.

    • 3
      0

      Thank you Kumar David. One minor point of disagreement. Gandhi changed history. I doubt that his assassination did — at least not much more than every event changes things. I say this lest people go on assassination sprees to change the world.

  • 2
    0

    Respect the concern for the gruesome nature of the killing and is unaceptable on any human life.

    What do we know about this Journalist/American resident as to his historical background and why he ended up in the States please? I think comparison/relativity/analysis will change once we know the details for any analysis please. I hear something very diffetent with regard to his human rights records iteself in the net but not sure ??

    Sure we live in a world of double standards……that is what happened in all the political killings in SL too in the name of democracy specially in Jaffna from 1970 onwards that I know of personally how/where and when. The so called elected Tamil representatives and their media machines kept quiet after instigating the killings in the first place at the same time exposing the young to all that happed to them thereafter. Now the same talk about what went wrong from 1977 onwards but selectively not a word about their blunder since 1949. The cold shower for this types is when the killers now live like the said Journalist in the West and in India protected for whatever purpose and what will happen to them once the respective governments do not need their service any longer?? They become a burden and a liability??

    The history repeat itself.

  • 1
    0

    MBS shows signs of not outliving his father.

    • 0
      0

      Dear Ad

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammad_bin_Salman

      Understand from the above link the reason Prince MBS is given the Thrown is because his Fathers health situation.

  • 2
    0

    “Hence it is not clear why it was essential to murder, dismember and take him back ‘home’; it must be the sheer arrogance of the Saudi royals”
    .
    Punishment for BETRAYAL.Imagine what Saudis would do to a serial betrayer…

    • 5
      0

      Fathima,

      “Punishment for BETRAYAL.Imagine what Saudis would do to a serial betrayer…”

      Sirisena?

  • 2
    0

    Dr. KD,

    Gina Haspel might have met Erdogan after his speech, not before, based on what I read from Turkish English dailies. Erdogan may have some reasons, such as protecting the methods in which they gathered the evidence ( if they had bugged the Saudi consulate directly, that is against international law; if their intelligence agencies used eavesdropping equipment, that may be fine but the evidence can be shared only with other intelligence agencies, not with the public) for not making the evidence public. But he has demanded extradition of the 18 arrested in SA.

    As for Mnuchin’s meeting with MBS, it was planned long-ago about preventing terror-financing. Of course they would have talked about Khashoggi.
    Congress can impose some sanctions and a ban on arms export, but the establishment is more interested in protecting Israel and containing Iran, along with maintaining lucrative defense exports.

    At a minimum, Saudis can’ easily buy influence in Congress anymore. The Post will expose them quickly and very publicly. Two contributors to the Post had to sever their lobbying relationship with SA immediately. Many other law firms have ended their agreements.

    Democrats will almost certainly gain control of the House in the elections on Nov 6; Senate will most likely remain under Republican control. It will lead to some change though we can’t expect much change.

Leave A Comment

Comments should not exceed 200 words. Embedding external links and writing in capital letters are discouraged. Commenting is automatically disabled after 7 days and approval may take up to 24 hours. Please read our Comments Policy for further details. Your email address will not be published.