13 July, 2020

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No More Constitutional Conspiracies! The Rupee Will Be Broken Soon!!

By Hema Senanayake

Hema Senanayake

Sri Lanka’s currency, the rupee will be kaput soon if the country cannot form a legitimate government which would be acceptable to the international community as legitimate. Significantly depreciating currency has a disastrous power to bring down any economy – big or small-, in no time. The rupee had been very week for past few months. The constitutional conspiracy was hatched exactly at a time when the rupee has shown unprecedented level of weakness. As a result, hopes for the rollover of foreign debt is in peril or at least would have to pay higher interest rates that have never been paid previously. This might lead to further depreciation of rupee. Severe depreciation would make dollar denominated debts more expensive for the government. The rests of economic peril are just details. If readers need an example, look at the recent economic crisis in Argentina.

Argentinean economy was, in fact, booming in the year 2017. Economists had painted a rosy picture. Given this background, the incumbent president’s coalition easily won the legislative election held in October last year. Within six months, that is by April this year, Argentinean currency, peso, depreciated over one hundred percent. Rests of the crisis were just details. Interest rates went up and inflation hit exceeding thirty one percent by mid-July this year. Investor confidence declined to its lowest level in recent times. All these were happened so quick even without having constitutional conspiracy and having IMF granted a massive loan to boost Argentinean foreign reserves. Now imagine, what would happen to the rupee if this political crisis continues for a few months.  

For the first time, the people of Sri Lanka, including venerable Maha Sanga and religious leaders in other faiths who admired the arbitrary actions of the president and Mahinda, would soon realize how important is the international acceptance of the national government just to stabilize the rupee and to achieve our national economic goals, at this very moment of our history. Presidents should never have done this kind of blunders. Parliamentary opposition should never be a partner in this kind of political crimes. People of this country should teach all of them an unforgettable lesson at the next election: kick them all out, kick all conspirators out. Mr. Kumar Welgama has just reiterated it.

The crisis is serious, and this crisis is created by none other than the Head of the State. That is the sad part of it. The gravity of the crisis has begun to cross the minds of its perpetrators. They might not get the majority of the legislators when the parliament is convened on 14th November 2018. The nature of the crisis is that, even if Mahinda did win the confidence of the majority, it would be considered as rouge majority and possibly never win the true recognition from international community who uphold democratic norms.

The second possibility is that it might revert back to the previous status quo sans “national government” under the premiership of Ranil, and that would be equally worse now, because they will never have a good working relationship with the president who still is the elected Head of the State who is also the Head of the Executive and the Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces. However, as Ranil mentioned in his Deepavali message that it is easy to be get divided and mad with each other, but it remains a challenge to be unified. Given his vision, he perhaps might find a way to reconstruct a functioning government under president Sirisena by putting the country before self.   

The third option advised by former Chief Justice Sarath N. Silva is the worst. He has advised that the parliament can be dissolved by ignoring the constitutional clause which restrict the president to dissolve parliament before it completes four and half years from the date of its first sitting. The intention of this clause was to have a stable government preventing frequent change of governments. This is an essential requirement to maintain higher investor confidence.   

However, such an abrupt and unconstitutional dissolution of parliament would tell the world that the Constitution of Sri Lanka does not support for a stable government even though whatever has been mentioned in its various clauses. 

Finally, Mahinda told the nation by addressing his supporters gathered at Battaramulle, that if he were the president, he would not have had taken the decision to remove Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe from premiership. That is done now. But, now our question to him is this. Would you prevent the dissolution of parliament unconstitutionally if the president wants to do it? 

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Latest comments

  • 8
    1

    Hema, this is a fine status update. A simple eye-opener. That must be read by all. Everybody is talking about the constitution. But non of these experts talk about whats happening to our beloved country. The hotel trade must speak out if there are mass cancellations of tourists who had booked up.. Will they? Today Gothabaya was at the high courts. Will the AG’s Dept suddenly start losing vital documents to have the case thrown out.?

    • 2
      0

      This is already happening at AG Department. They are worried all the important files would all be gone.

  • 3
    0

    Hema Senanayake,

    I was trying to say the same thing in laymen’s-speak ……… and I can’t even spell economics

    All governments get into trouble when they are unable to competently handle an economy ……….. Sirisena/Mahinda will soon find out ………… this is where Mahinda’s “charisma” ends …….. the real man and his economic-expertise will be exposed

    During his last reign …….. price of petrol was kept fixed and very high even though the price of oil in the world-market was not that high ……… that covered most of the expenses/wastage …….. now what are they going to do?

    My greatest worry is that they might try to ferment “patriotic fervour” for people to forget the economic-worries and get BBS to attack the Tamils ………..that’s when the country will be partitioned.

    I hope the people …….. see the danger before it’s too late …….. and keep a tight leash on the BBS Einsteins.


    “Finally, Mahinda told the nation by addressing his supporters gathered at Battaramulle, that if he were the president, he would not have had taken the decision to remove Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe from premiership.”

    What a smooth operator! ……. He is trying to nicely distance himself from his culpability for this fiasco. …….. He can’t have it both ways ………. they have been planning this for months. People have to make him wear this.

    • 0
      0

      People in SriLankan had forgotten the 30 year war and the countless innocent civilians killed on both sides.
      What role did Mr Ranil W do during this period to bring an end to this violence?
      Despite his party being one of the oldest parties in SL, was he ever able to win an election on his own?
      Can you point anything that he has done to the country since he became the PM?

  • 3
    2

    Even if Ranil’s Government continued, there was no guarantee that the Rupee will not depreciate. I think Soros gang was planning to kill Sri Lankan economy because once the economy collapse, it is easy for them to dictate terms. From the day Ranil came to power, economy started going down the drain. Ranil is a pro-western guy but those countries did not come to rescue the economy except for granting GSP+ with a long list of conditions. If Ranil cared for the country, he should have given the opportunity to Karu or Sajith to carry on with the President. But he was only concerned about retaining his position as head of UNP. May be he got instructions from his bosses in the West not to give up. Ranil is the villain, not the President!

  • 3
    0

    Hema, you being an economist, could see the writings on the wall for all to see, if things are not resolved fast and all returns to normal. Damn lunatic Sirisena, one bit, least bothered about the country or the people but all these dramas are for securing his presidential ambissions in 2020 . Very mean, pathetic, greedy, unprincipled and lowly creature . We should be ashamed to call him the president.This is the high tourism season, Lonely Planet naming SL the best country to visit 2019, country could have a done a
    roaring business but all gone in wane. People should keep it utmost in their minds whats happening to Venezuela, the country with the largest oil reserves in the planet, due to the dirty politicians. the people are scavenging the dirt bins and eating dead meat to survive. Sure, through their dastardly actions, Sirisena and MR would ensure these calamities to this beautiful paradise when they loose the support of the international community. Rupee is in a free fall and the shortly due huge debts instalment would spin the economy and the country out of control,if they don’t soon find a way out of this.

  • 2
    1

    damage has been already done…
    Economy will suffer a lots.
    billions are lost due to stupidity of Maithri,
    who are his legal and economic political advisers.
    did he by pass them all.
    only way to get rid of it is to impeach him soon.
    this should be done with support o Mahinda, Ranil and all other parties.
    This is interest of Sri Lanka
    then appoint a care taker government soon.
    to recover economy of Sri Lanka.
    otherwise. wait to see a failed state soon.

  • 1
    1

    Hema Senanayake is wrong. Take examples of Venezuela, Nicaragua, Zambia, Libya, Iraq, Ukraine, now sri Lanka. You are scaring the sri lankan govt which should stop getting foreign loans. See how sad the situation in Ukarine.but, nothing of the kind what you say did not happen. The west proposed so many thinhs that would bust the GOSL. Only Ranil, Mangala and a few others were doing a different Agenda

  • 0
    0

    i hope i doesnt become a zimbabwe or somalia. when there is no money, religious problems and ethnic problems will follow. with this stupid president, anything is possible.

  • 0
    0

    We should not forget that during Ranil’s time the Media was really free. Perhaps that was the only thing they did better than MR.
    .
    Ranil was also let down by his close associates like Mangala -an idiot- who tried make out that the common man was also an idiot.

    • 2
      0

      but never forget, there are many things they achieved under RW.

      But Gamarala harvested it. Do you think that Gamarala ever wanted to hold on to the pledges. RW should have been the victim in that unity govt.

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