By Ameer Ali –

Dr. Ameer Ali

The Nugegoda rally organized by the SLPP solely to promote the future presidential candidacy of Namal Rajapaksa, which election is constitutionally four years away, may have marked the first of “1000 rallies” as previously announced by the former president Ranil Wickremesinghe (RW) who understandably did not participate in this one.

The only message that came out loud from this rally was the determination to topple the present NPP government and the presidency of Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) at the earliest possible opportunity. But the question why was not never spelt out by any of the main speakers except a blind condemnation of the ruling leadership. In short, that rally was a cacophonic assemblage of a party of desperados with no alternative and constructive economic or governance agenda but driven solely by an existential fear of losing position and prestige at least by some leading personalities if the current government were allowed to continue. What is this fear?       

There is now almost universal praise for AKD and NPP for their reformist and technocratic transformation in respect of governance.  Their original radical politics has given way to pragmatism. This fundamental transformation is clearly reflected in AKD’s acceptance of IMF guidance as the only practical solution available given the parlous state of the economy which the new government inherited in 2024.  As a result, and due to strong fiscal consolidation as reflected by the shrinking rate of budget deficit and other positive developments, economic and financial stability have returned and at least a 4% to 5% growth rate is expected by the end of 2026, according to SLCB Governor, although IMF expects it to be a little lower around 3%. IMF’s own pessimism about the state of the global economy may have prompted it to be cautious. However, the challenge is not over yet. The cost-of-living crisis which is now a global pandemic and the slower of poverty alleviation are problems that need attention over the next four years. Regarding these and other economic evils such as rising inflation and interest rates one important fact should not be forgotten and that is the root cause of these evils lies in the chaos ruling over the global economic order. They are part of a systemic crisis and a subject that demands separate discussion. In short, domestic policies alone are insufficient to drive them out.  Subject to this major constraint however, NPP’s skill in economic management shows that its managers are proving to be quick learners.

The second area where the new government has a positive score is in its increased efficiency in governance and administration. Reform in governance was one area even IMF insisted and RW did nothing about it. It was the built in inefficiency in public administration why IMF insisted on privatising Sri Lanka’s state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Now, that insistence has been relaxed, and with increasing confidence in the new government’s drive to end corruption and mismanagement IMF expects these entities to become profit earning ventures without burdening the national budget. However, there is a long way to go to achieve this result.

But one crucial element of this efficiency drive is AKD’s Clean Sri Lanka (CSL) mission. Apart from this mission’s campaign to create a clean and healthy physical environment not only to make the country more attractive for foreign tourists but even more importantly to improve the living conditions of Sri Lankans themselves, one crucial aspect of CSL is to end corruption in public sector management.  According to Transparency International SL stands 121^st amongst 180 countries in terms of Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) in 2024. Although the country’s CPI score (0 means very clean and 100 very corrupt) had seen a decline from 38 in 2020 to 32 in 2024 when AKD and NNP came to power, corruption remained the bane of the country’s public sector.  Hnece, AKD’s seriousness to tackle this cancer.

The main reason why corruption continued to prevail was because the principle of accountability in public management was never in the dictionary of previous governments. From Presidents and Prime Ministers to office clerks and peons, public office provided opportunities to misuse power so that something extra could be earned.  The ruling political culture virtually issued a social license for this evil to prosper. Hence the need for CSL. Having warned NPP parliamentarians already against engaging in any form of corruption AKD resolved to open previous records to bring in the former culprits to face the law. As he promised during the presidential campaign to end a moribund political culture through a social revolution his campaign against corruption is hitting at its most vital nerve.

It is this campaign more than anything else which continues to send panic waves within the opposition parties. None of these parties has a better alternative agenda that would improve the economic and social conditions of the country. But having witnessed the court drama of RW who is now being asked to account for his use or misuse of public funds, and having seen the fate of a former minister of health who has been found guilty of surreptitiously importing substandard medical drugs from unregistered Indian pharmaceutical companies, there are several in the opposition camp who seem to fear that law will catch them soon if this government were to continue. The only solution available for these desperados therefore is to bring down this government at the earliest possible opportunity. But how?

Anti-government rallies alone are insufficient to provoke any government unless those rallies create problems to the maintenance of law and order. Thus, it was more than a coincident that the Nugegoda rally took place just one week after the controversy over a Buddha statue broke out in Trincomalee on 14 November threatening to escalate into communal violence. There were several instances before and especially during the previous Rajapaksa regime when political Buddhism and political bhikkhus played the role of agent provocateurs on behalf of the government to whip up communal hatred to solidify the reign of Rajapaksas. In Trincomalee too it was the political bhikkhus who agitated against the police removal of that statue and the agitators carried the backing of SLPP desperados.                  

Meanwhile AKD and his team are making meaningful efforts towards ethnic reconciliation as evidenced from the popular support AKD receives in Tamil districts, and lately the meeting in London between diaspora Tamil leaders and Tilvin Silva the General Secretary of JVP, had been described as an “interactive and constructive” dialogue, which is totally in contrast to the mutually suspicious and confrontational meetings held between Tamil and Sinhalese politicians over several decades. It is in this healthy environment the Trincomalee incident and SLPP desperados’ support for political bhikkhus seem to be a deliberate ploy to restart inter-communal violence.

As a final observation on the Nugegoda rally one cannot ignore the possibility of foreign power involvement and particularly from India. To this regional hegemon a politically stable, economically vibrant and socially cohesive Sri Lanka would reduce the country’s need to depend on India for assistance.  Even earlier India’s initial sympathy with and support of Sri Lankan Tamils political demands before deserting the Tamil fighters altogether to be slaughtered by the Sinhalese army was entirely directed by India’s hegemonic desire. Thus, AKD-NPP’s record of good governance so far and its friendliness with the other Asian hegemon China are seen by India as threat to its hegemonic desires. In short, an unstable Sri Lanka with a struggling economy is a geo-strategic advantage for India’s regional hegemony. Hence there is ground to suspect India’s invisible hand behind the rally of the desperados. However, as the saying goes, let the dogs bark caravan should move.