By Mohamed Harees –

Lukman Harees

“We are now, probably for the first time in our history, entering a new aspect of national politics.“ ~ Benjamin Stanton American politician 1809-1872

The day July 9th in 2022 predicted extraordinary times for Sri Lanka. The day will go down in Post-Independence history as a landmark event which impacted significantly on the lives of the people of Sri Lanka. It signified the triumph of a true non-partisan people’s struggle which took roots in the severe economic crises which engulfed the nation, barely 2 years after Gotabaya, one of the Rajapaksa brothers, assumed power, consequent to a massive mandate based on a majoritarian and racist platform. Breaking security barriers, tens of thousands of protesters, stricken by crippling inflation, marched into Colombo, stormed the seats of power and took over the presidential office and residence as well as Temple Trees. Today, Sri Lanka’s shamed strongman is on the run and has submitted his resignation while being in Singapore.

The July 09 became an acid test, to see if people have the determination, if they have the strength to come out. The people responded overwhelmingly to this call. This unprecedented public uprising which united diverse groups in a country with a bloody history of ethnic conflict, sought an immediate end to Gota’s presidency in particular and to a corrupt Rajapakse dynasty that dominated the country’s politics for decades in general, which drove this Island nation to economic collapse and finally to bankruptcy. Gota ‘fled’ and has now announced his exit from the highest office of our land from a land beyond our seas.

July has always been an extraordinary month in Sri Lanka’s history. In Theravada Buddhist calendar, the full moon of July is observed as ‘Esala Poya’, which commemorates The Buddha’s first sermon, and the founding of the Buddhist Sangha. Dubbed as “Black July”, the July 24-30 1983 anti-Tamil pogrom was indeed a black mark in the Post Independence history. On July 29, 1987, India and Sri Lanka signed the India-Sri Lanka accord, which failed in its objectives within three years, and led to huge losses for the Indian Army. More recently, it was on July 29, 2017 that Sri Lanka signed off on a deal to hand over the Hambantota Port to the Chinese to settle money owed to the Chinese construction company. Then, this historic Aragalaya which saw a significant turn of events on the 9th. When the Speaker announces Gota’s resignation, July 15 will be another addition to the month for Sri Lanka; of course causing ‘July Hatha’ to the nation, as said in Sinhala in reference to a disaster!

Rajapaksas’ shame laden departure, after months of sustained protests, may mark a bitter end to the family’s long iron grip. However, if past is anything to go by in Sri Lanka, and also what transpired in Philippines and Indonesia, the corrupt family can bounce back into power from electoral losses at some point, if only a conducive climate comes about. But the determined scenes from Saturday attest to a hardened public sentiment against the family, which is also facing allegations of corruption and amassing wealth. As DBS Jeyaraj says, it is highly unlikely that the Rajapaksas would be able to regain power and prestige as a dominant political dynasty again. Individual Rajapaksas could remain in politics but being a dominant political family again seems out of the question. The House of Rajapaksa may not see a total political downfall but it is certainly falling down.

In the words of PM Ranil Wickremesinghe, ‘we are now participating in the negotiations as a bankrupt country’. The spectre of more political instability is bound to threaten to send the embattled nation deeper into economic/political crisis and could even delay its efforts to secure a bailout. IMF has already said it is hoping for a resolution to Sri Lanka’s political turmoil that will allow a resumption of talks for a bailout package after a violent day of protests.

Sri Lanka’s oppressive stability started to crumble. The people of Sri Lanka have completely lost their trust in Gota and his family entourage. They saw him as a betrayer and want none of the Rajapaksas to remain in the government and for every one of them should be brought to justice for their crimes, especially financial crimes. Most importantly, people of Sri Lanka wounded by decades of bloodshed, violence and war, reeling presently in economic turmoil, need their peace back, lives back, and also wants their children to have a better life. The question remains: with the downfall of a regime built upon the image of the Rajapaksas will it yield further political instability or prompt a genuine political restructuring and usher in a new era of clean politics and social justice for South Asia’s oldest democracy? This will depend how the agenda rolls out and managed, true to the July 9th achievements and aspirations. Unfortunately again if history is anything to go by, the vested political interests or hawks, usually hijack the agenda arising from the issues and people’s aspirations coming into focus at the time of elections. This is what those ‘leading or guiding’ the Aragalaya should beware and watch out!

In the backdrop of the armed forces especially being a bogeyman for the anti-Rajapaksa groups in the country and also the West, it is also important to give adequate credit to the nation’s uniformed services, comprising the armed forces and the police, who made it all happen, by staying neutral, or more than neutral, in favour of the “people’s struggle”. At least, uniformed services did not do anything that would have jeopardised the protestors’ plans to storm capital Colombo, whether in the past or more so on Saturday last. It is a positive development that Gen. Shavendra Silva has stated that armed forces will stay neutral in this political struggle. Hope they will stay true to their assurance!

Upul Shantha Sannasgala, a leading social activist though controversial expressed caution about political opportunists cunningly harvesting the gains of the Aragalaya which should rightfully accrue to the people who toiled and waged the historic struggle, on July 9^th. He traces history of various types of Aragalaya in Sri Lanka right from the time of Prince Vijaya. He refers to the Aragalaya launched against the foreign invaders – Portuguese, Dutch and the British and says that the gaining of Independence in 1948 cannot be described as arising after a Aragalaya in the true sense of the term. In the Post-Independence history, however the political opportunistic forces have always hijacked the agenda after a period of crisis to come to power. Sirimavo and her party hijacked the issues which arose out the economic strains of the previous Dudley regime, aided by radical leftist forces. Similarly, JRJ took advantage of the economic/ political/social pressures during Srimavo’s time, when he sought a mandate in 1977. In 1994, CBK did the same. In early 2000, Mahinda exploited the war related national security issues and pseudo patriotic feelings prevailing then and hijacked the agenda. In 2015, Maithri/ Ranil followed suit using ‘Yahapalana’ fad and in 2019, Gotabaya Rajapaksa exploited the national security issues arising from Easter Sunday terror which his camp was accused of creating conducive conditions for and rose to power based on a majoritarian and racist platform. Today, as the Rajapakse bastion is wrecked and breached, history can repeat itself, if lessons are not learnt and such hawks are not identified and side-lined.

Post July 9^th revolution! once Gota/ Ranil are expelled, it will defeat the aims and objectives of the Aragalaya, which truly arose out of the people on non-partisan and without a political leadership, if the petty political opportunists represented in the present Parliament are allowed to pocket the gains of the Aragalaya and exploit present economic/ social and political turmoil and hijack the Post revolution agenda. There is the risk and danger of some political hawk dreaming of becoming the next President or gaining power , as happened in the past . Sannasgala suggests that political parties should be pressurized to taken in intellectuals and professionals who are proficient in governance and economic management into the Parliament through the national list route, to form a team to take Sri Lanka forward, without allowing those opportunists to exploit the emerging emotive issues to gain power at the expense of the people’s aspirations.

Incidentally, post July 9, ‘PM’ Ranil, one of most hardened political hawks in Sri Lanka, took advantage of the volatile situation, and became the acting President, stating that Gotabaya appointed him to act in the latter’s absence. Already, he is (mis)using his powers and is making plans aiming to become the President with the support of the SLPP votes in Parliament. The political dramas and manipulations have started. There will be a lot of tussles within the divided Opposition on the choice of common candidate for both President and PM posts. SJB’s Leader of the Opposition, Sajith Premadasa, who, given the chance, would like to have both positions to himself. So would be NPP’s Anura Kumara Dissanayake, of course on their terms. No political deals or opportunism usually entered into by the likes of Rauf Hakeem and Bathiudeens at the time of should be entertained.

The next few days or week are as crucial for deciding the future of the nation’s politics as the past many weeks. The sooner the country will guarantee political stability for itself, it would also remain the new opening for much awaited IMF bail-out and subsequent aid and assistance from the West or neighbouring India. It is therefore very important to ensure political stability , but the right pressure should be exerted by those leading or guiding the Aragalaya to ensure that the right type of political intervention is infused so that the aims of the Aragalaya to create a new clean political culture and promote political accountability is achieved. The agenda for the transformation after the expulsion of the corrupt rulers should be controlled by the people through public pressure exerted by and though those in charge at the Aragala site. Already they have formulated their demands for this process of transformation and publicised. They represent pretty much public interests. Unless those in Diyawanna Oya are pressurized to adhere to these public compulsions, the agenda will be hijacked by the hawks who have already taken this nation up a garden path into a political and social oblivion.

Among the main demands, apart from the resignation of the Rajapaksas will be the creation of a fair society economically, politically and socially ensuring social and racial justice as well as a transparent leadership. MA Sumanthiran addressing the activists steering the Aragalaya too said that it is important to make fundamental changes in a society where majoritarian and racist policies ruled over equal treatment to all citizens, in order to make the Aragalaya meaningful. Broken promises are part of the process of degeneration of the political culture and people should not hold it further as another obstacle in coming together. Aren’t people all much wiser now by the experience as not to repeat those historic blunders? Lord Soulbury too, in 1963 admitted this fact with regard to Constitution he spearheaded, thus: (However)… the reconciliation … will depend not on constitutional guarantees but on the goodwill, common sense and humanity of the Government in power and the people who elect it.”

The actual independence begins now and not in what happened in 1948. Let this be the end to the few families who have ruled the country, since the white occupiers left, by whipping up communalism and plundering the wealth to line their own pockets and their own families. There should be a ‘system change’ instead of a leadership change. Sri Lanka is dying as a nation, and the Rajapaksas have killed it. It will take time for the Island nation to get back on track, but if the real changes do not come this right now, the children of this nation won’t even have a future or in the short run one meal to eat a day.

Sri Lanka’s decline into economic chaos should also be a stark warning to countries around the world. It clearly shows what happens when those in power go unchecked for far too long, prioritising their own interests over their country’s future and profit over people. Because what’s going on in Sri Lanka isn’t just a food or mere economic crisis, or an energy crisis. Or an inflation crisis. It’s predominantly a greed crisis.

There is no more dangerous menace to civilization than a government of incompetent, corrupt, or vile men. Thus, people should not be afraid of their government. Governments should rather be afraid of their people. It is said that a people that elect corrupt politicians, imposters, thieves and traitors are not victims… but accomplices, as George Orwell once said.