19 October, 2019

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Pres Polls: Too Early To Predict Outcome

By Kumar David

Prof. Kumar David

Rather foolish people make bombastic predictions that Gotabaya Rajapaksa will surely win while unintelligent UNP types proclaim with certainty that Sajith will prevail. One of them will win but with so many known-unknowns and unknown-unknowns still before us it is silly to indulge in idle babble. What can be intelligently recounted are strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats relating to the candidates. The biggest unknown-unknown are the legal complications relating to Gota’s candidacy which have been raised in many forms. It seems his renunciation of US citizenship is ok but don’t be surprised if challenges are mounted after nomination. He has been acquitted in the corruption cases so this is a known-known. 

The two actions against Gota in US courts are civil petitions but pertain to murder and responsibility for torture and human rights violations. US courts have refused to stay action till after the elections. The impact that evidence led in these cases may have on SL voting is small since the Sinhala-Buddhist block rallying to Gota does not care two bits for Lasantha’s assassination by the Paksa regime and even less if every Tamil were thrown under a steam-roller. Since morals won’t count a crap in these elections we can write it off even if he loses the court battles. It’s a known-known of little importance to voters but chronic if he is elected and then ordered to pay damages. A Lankan president enjoys no immunity under US law. 

The Colombo Telegraph scoop that files pertaining to Gota’s nationality have disappeared from Immigration Department and Defence Ministry could well impact both voting patterns and post-nomination and post-election legal challenges. Here is the Colombo Telegraph account (abridged): “A case filed by Chndraguptha Thenuwara and Gamini Viyangoda alleging dual citizenship was never conferred on Gota and he is not a citizen. The CID told the Colombo Chief Magistrate that files containing Gota’s dual citizenship papers and could not be located at any govt. department or ministry dealing with citizenship”. What the devil is going on? What if the Director of Immigration testified that he cannot confirm whether Gota is a citizen? All hell will break loose!  I am not offering prizes for guessing who is behind the vanishing trick, but more important is the reason for this hanky-panky, an unknown-unknown! It’s looney stuff worthy of our cranky head of state. 

Sajith Premadasa’s imbroglio is more nuanced. I don’t care tuppence whether the UNP keeps or fires Ranil as leader. I am not a UNPer and my short alliance with it to kick out despot and power-grabber Mahinda is over. The job is finished and we can now gracefully go our separate ways starting with the coming round of elections. (Jayampathy should remain in office till parliament completes its term to carry out possible duties on constitutional matters; but that’s temporary). The muddles about Sajith are: (a) Is he willing to declare in no uncertain terms that he will go all out to abolish the Executive Presidency? (b) Will he enact the fullest devolution of power (excluding the right to self-determination)? 

The answer to both questions with a high degree of probability is NO! He wants a “scientific survey” about EP before he knows his own mind – which currently must be pretty empty! EP has been a hot political topic for decades; where was this man all this time – vacationing on Mars? Science my foot; he is looking for excuses to back out of abolishing EP and greedily seeking to retain maximum powers. Seems no different from Sirisena except that he is making it clear up-front. After building 1000 temples will he scientifically survey the Buddhist clergy whether he can retain EP for life? Will he also consult the clergy at that stage about devolution and the troublesome Tamils and Muslims? Nevertheless I am campaigning to give the bugger the second preference vote because it is crucial to keep potential dictator Gotabaya out. And if Gota does win it is not the UNP and Sajith’s hangers-on but leftists, radicals, democrats and civil-society who will take up mobilisation to fight Gota’s militarist and fascistic proclivities.  

I will discuss the JVP and the National Question in a full-length essay once Anura’s programme is released. In the meantime, in the context of the above paragraphs, my take is that Anura can benefit from a goodly share of minority support since Gota and Sajith will be busy battling it out to maximise their share of the Sinhala-Buddhist vote.

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Latest comments

  • 40
    11

    To me, it seems possible that neither Gota nor Sajith may be the winner of this Election;
    .
    To defeat them, the JVP must get together with the Alternatives and field just one candidate. Don’t you think that an enticing prospect?

    • 12
      7

      Sinhala_man
      In all democracies far left parties poll around 5% – the JVP figure throughout their history. Most even less. The expectation of +50% is a conscious, deliberate, calculated lie hoping that this PSYCHOLOGICAL TRICK will fool another 45% or downright idiocy, That alone destroys their credibility and the reason I don’t vote for them. Based on this ‘reality’ they should not contest Presidency (like TNA) as a stand alone party. Most importantly they should not launch ‘revolutions’ with 5% (Wijeweera lost his deposit) which they did twice which is a deadly game. That to me make them look like children playing with a ball like exposed landmine.
      ,
      Now my dear Sinhala_man they certainly have proved to be an essential component in our parliament expressing freely about corruption without fear, favour or bias. Their disciplined behaviour is so admirable and an example to others. We need more of them in our parliament. But again based on that ‘reality of 5% ‘ I discussed above they should not expect to be a ‘ruling’ party in the present circumstances. They must be honest with us say to us ” look you guys are giving us only 5% which is not sufficient. Why don’t you make it 15% this time around to do our job of exposing corruption and wastage”. I will vote for JVP whose ideals I did cherish at the University.

      Soma

      • 8
        0

        Soma

        DBW became the president, did he have @ least 5%

        MS became the president, did he have @ least 5%

        RW has 25% (because of UNP but he’ll never become an elected leader)

        Country’s fate may come magically.

        Personally I dislike Marxists but time has come to welcome a Marxist without Marxist attire.

        AKD has good understanding that he has to act as a Roman when he is in Rome.

        This will happen only if Gota withdraws. (No sign @ all @ present of Sajith withdrawal)
        An alternative for Gota isn’t to be seen in SL except handcuffed MR.

        So get ready to say yes to AKD. He won’t be that devil for the time being.

        • 7
          0

          Real Revolutionist

          He won’t be that devil for the time being.”
          Please read the second para of my comment again

          Soma

          • 5
            0

            soma
            Wow, you’ve said that

    • 1
      15

      But they are commies. All communists are evil.

      • 10
        1

        Rajitha, you may want to sound like the Oracle of Delphi, but I’m not buying that pronouncement of yours.
        .
        I know you had Stalin etc. However, there have been places like Guyana (Chedi Jagan), may be Yugoslavia (Tito) where there were quite decent rulers. I’m not a Marxist – nor a particularly wise man – Professor Kumar David is both.
        .
        This is my view of your simplistic utterance. I’m entitled to my view, but I wouldn’t want to launch in to a debate.
        .
        Actually, it is Capitalists who are now demonstrably evil.

        • 7
          1

          Sinhala Man,
          “This is my view of your simplistic utterance “
          There are the ignorant, and then there are the brainwashed – on both sides.

        • 8
          0

          Sinhala_Man

          The so called Marxists, Maoist, Lenists, Stalinists, Trotskyist, Guzmánists, Potists, …. have been themselves believers in “ONE PARTY” dictatorship or sadists. Look at the state of this island, had those different brand of so called “ists” were honest this country would not have come to this appalling state.

        • 4
          0

          Sinhala Man. YOU SAID IT. From the day that slinking son of Capitalism arrived in Sri Lanka , we have been slipping down the slope.

          He said that he will make sri Lanka another Singapore. led by Lee Kwan. lee Kwan dropped all the dead baggage our guys collect additional dead baggage.

          Lee and his wife passed their University exams with Triple Firsts, has any one of our people got even a OL? What were the OL results of our politicians?

          How did GLP the goat become a Vice Chancellor?

          • 0
            1

            PART ONE

            Dear Late Rev Medalankara de Choppe,
            .
            Many thanks for that kind comment. The detail that you refer to may seem to be contradicted by what I’m going to say, but that will be appearance only. If I get going, and the moderators are kind enough, I could say much more – about how corruption at the highest levels tempts those lower down to act outrageously.
            .
            I mustn’t be unfair by the moderators – they put out two special notes saying that my wide-ranging responses were irrelevant to the topic. This comment will get a green gravatar and my real name.
            .
            I will have to write an article about how there is so much corruption at S. Thomas’, the alma mater of GLP, and whose Board of Governors GLP graced for more than twenty years. Will anybody publish my “storm in a teacup”? CT did four years ago. It is not the qualifications alone that matter. GLP had plenty of those, as does Professor Kumar David, who was senior to Peiris in school.
            .
            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G._L._Peiris
            .
            GL used to win every prize in school, and had two PhDs before he was thirty years old. I think that he was a good Vice-Chancellor as well. And he was an asset on the BoG.
            .
            After he became a politician, he did become a goat. With hindsight, we may think that we discerned many warning signs of what was to come – but that would be unfair.
            .
            You’re spot on when you speak of the importance of minimum O. Levels for certain jobs – but may not be for M.P.s who must represent even the illiterate. But I see the counter-argument: the way to represent boredom in a stage-play is not to make the play boring.

          • 0
            1

            PART TWO
            .
            At this moment, I’m wondering whether to write a separate article on what I know of the Board of Governors of S. Thomas’ where a guy is preparing to cheat his way into one of the five elected positions (ten are nominated) under false pretensions, when he hasn’t even sat his O. Levels. In fact, he left school from Grade 8. My problem is that if I write, I’ll be accused of “betraying” all sorts of people.
            .
            Capitalism, Nepotism, Old School Ties, and subtler forms of evil are to blame for what is happening. Not Marxism. Kumar David may even be angry that I have revealed where he studied.
            .
            We need a meritocracy. Your comment gave me the chance to say it. My name is Panini Edirisinhe. I take responsibility for what I have said. At age seventy, the most accurate description that I can provide of myself is that I’m a retired village schoolmaster – gambada iskole mahattaya, who has never ventured outside Asia.
            .
            You speak of Singapore; I don’t know the place, but I do know Malaysia a little, having spent a fortnight there almost exactly a year ago. My daughter wanted to show me the country before she returned to Sri Lanka to educate her children in the Sinhala Medium. Plan given up after ten months. She’s going back there in a fortnight. I’m sad that she won’t be able to cast a vote for sanity and decency. Her husband has good employment there, but she focusses on educating the kids aged 6 and 4. She was the manager of a foreign bank in Sri Lanka, and has an MBA, but now educating the kids is her sole concern.

            • 0
              1

              I’m really sorry about this. I have made a mess of the bold lettering. Trying to undo.

      • 0
        0

        Rajitha : That may be the reason for a single rape case not been reported in Cuba for the last thirteen years.

    • 8
      0

      Enticing? Yes! But the reality is it is a far fetched dream! The Sri Lankan polity has never gone down the enticing route, but instead opted to remain polarized towards identified herds, demonstrating association with primal animal instinct, instead of actions and decisions based on logic and common sense. Until such time the Sri Lankan polity deviates from its primal behavior, political outcomes however “Enticing” will remain a far fetched dream!

    • 10
      1

      Sinhala_Man

      “To me, it seems possible that neither Gota nor Sajith may be the winner”

      If that happens, Amarasiri can no longer make fun of Sri Lankans’ IQ

      • 5
        1

        Mohd ,

        I love it when Amarasiri start off everything with ‘ para ‘
        so my vote is for Amarasiri !

    • 6
      2

      Prof Kumar David,

      The three candidates want to capture the votes from 70 percent Para-Sinhala Para-“Buddhists “, mean IQ 79, who follow a corrupted and distorted version of Buddhism called Para-Sinhala Para-“Buddhism”, that is an insult to the Buddha, common sense and intelligence. They all tune in to various degrees, with the Rajapaksa campaign most racist and obnoxious. Splitting the low IQ Imbeciles votes, will be disadvantageous to Gota-MaRa Mafia, as there minority votes still constitute about 30 percent.

      Hopefully, this presidential election will confirm the decline of the Rajapaksa Mafia, and the decay of the Para-Sinhala Para-“Buddhist “ imbeciles.

    • 2
      2

      KD: October 21, is the 6 months anniversary of the US SOF staged Easter Sunday Economic Terrorism against Sri Lanka and Chinese investment and cooperation. The US-EU funded Civil society has forgotten about Easter Sunday, and are obsessed by the elections as if there is nothing else going on, as is the case with you too!

      What is your analysis of the cover up of the foreign hands behind the Easter attacks?
      Should civil soceity wake up and stage protests outside the US embassy, military base that is being built on Galle Road and outside the Saudi Embassy on October 21? Or, attack innocent Muslims and the BBS thugs have been doing, on the bidding of their foreign funders to weaponize religious conflict in the northeast of Lanka so that foreign military bases may be set up in Trinco, Mannar and WIllpattu?

    • 3
      0

      One will defenitly win ,even if each poll less than 25% each !
      Election commissioner clearly explained about it.

  • 12
    6

    Go for lesser evil. UNP and SLPP are evils. No doubt about it. JVP is a good one. But people do not trust them yet. But between two evils go for lesser evils. Between two goods choose most good one. It is upto people to do this. But, traditionally people are going for UNP or SLFP. Now. this tradition must change.

    • 7
      1

      This is why I say that a mix of JVP and the humane Alternatives are likely to be trusted by the public who don’t want violent upheavals.
      .
      The Alternatives say that they, too, must allow themselves to be held accountable.

      • 0
        3

        JVP is not yet capable of running a country. And majority of Sri Lankans are not yet ready to come out of racist mindset too. Imagine the percentages of voters from SLPP, SLFP and UNP to convert, if JVP to win. Not even a dream.

        • 4
          1

          Dear Mohd,

          Still we have hope that we (NPP) can change the political landscape of our motherland.. Floating voters in SL are 29+% (if all inclined to JVP, because of frustration) and the base vote for JVP is approximately 5%, so it is already 34%. In a “three front contest” neither GR ( if allowed to contest) nor SP receives 50+, thus 2nd preference vote would play a vital role. SLPP and UNF voters knowingly or unknowingly may cast their 2nd preference vote to JVP in the belief that behaving in such a way they can defeat the main opponent ( GR to SP and SP to GR)easily. That is our catch. Can you please give us one(your) vote. Because every vote counts.

          • 4
            0

            Dear Ahmad Nadvi,

            I agree, that given the present balance among the parties, it makes no sense, if you are using Preference votes, to give your First to one of the two large parties. This is what I have e-mailed to some of my friends:
            .
            “So many still complaining that they don’t understand the system of Preferences. Three can be marked by each voter. Explained in this 48-minute video by the Chairman of the Elections Commissioner, Mahinda Deshapriya. Just four minutes relevant to that, starting 28 minutes into this video.”

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCgZCD-NYiw
            .
            Now, 48 minutes is too long for some people. So here’s less than five minutes excerpted from that video:
            .
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mrz6RpzDaa4
            .
            That tells you how votes are counted.
            .
            If you JVP guys are really keen on using this election to establish your Party, then nominate someone from the Alternatives. But then those guys nominate an Army man. He may be a decent guy, but do you seriously expect many Tamils to vote for an Army guy?
            .
            However, you may get more votes with that guy than with AKD, because fear of the JVP is real. I had suggested Ajith Colonne.
            .
            The more you simplify, the less likely that people will think for themselves. Since nobody wants really to think, we come back to what I said at first:
            .
            “The JVP must get together with the Alternatives and field just one candidate.”
            .

    • 2
      5

      Lankan,
      I have a different opinion on this issue. As you & many tend to think, looking for a third option may seems attractive, there is no guarantee whether any new option might not fall into the same plague: Efforts to keep party power withing a limited confinement – SLPP in the family; UNP within the an elite old guards; minorities within a particular racial group; and JVP within a strictly ideology.

      What I propose is to extend the example of Sajith’s victory to all political parties during the selection process of candidates at all levels -something similar to the US system. Such a system would encourage candidates to try on their own merits of public service within their communities or electorates rather than on unconditional loyalty to the existing power structure.

      I do appreciate the efforts of many retired Gvt Executives trying to challenge the existing system out of frustration developed through their career experiences in the political system but I have a serious doubt whether they can achieve their goals within the limited time span left in their physical strength needed for such a strenuous campaign. Showing just for a major elections and then disappear like morning mist certainly won’t cut it.

      What I would suggest is to take the advantage of this opening by Sajith to open up party’s selection process by joining him with a specific demand to expand the process. I’m not naive enough to suggest that such a demand would produce fruits right away but I think that this could work in the long run. For the idea to work, the power of selection process mus t be taken away from confined spaces of party head offices (or family dinner table) and handed over to the voters. Success of Sajith should taken as an opportunity to start the process.

      • 7
        0

        Dear D.P.
        Thank you for your thought provoking ideas.
        What happens after election is totally difference what is happening now.
        Our politicians are like thungs ..
        They do not respect people as soon as they win the election and accumulated power in their hands .
        All promises are before election ..
        As soon as they win the election they are like old dogs we can not reach them any new tricks .
        So; we need to take them into accountability and responsibility.
        Unless our system punished some top level politicians for their mistakes …
        They will never learn a lesson .
        They all know how to get away from mistake and wrong doing ..

    • 1
      0

      Dear lankan (simple “el” and pale green gravatar),
      .
      There is another commenter called “Lankan” (capital L, and purple gravatar). There is nothing dishonest about that, but it does confuse, doesn’t it?
      .
      Two of his comments already on this page.
      .
      The content of his first comment shows that he is on “our” side. So let’s try not to alienate him. However, in his second comment, he faults the poor and humble Marxist author of this article for using “inauthentic language”. He continues:
      .
      “CT kills the natural taste of English.
      I would advice children should not read this paper at all.
      Reading it would ruin their English language”.
      .
      I responded last “night”. That reference to Enid Blyton may seem puzzling, given that I was told, by my most loving but unsophisticated mother, that I should read lots of Enid Blyton. And so I did, upto the age of ten. Then, I guess I just outgrew them. I’m sure that I couldn’t have read them all because there is so much of the “stuff”.
      .
      How this is related to the topic is this: our views and opinions are often formed unconsciously, and we may not know what influences conditioned our minds. Here is an assessment of her work made last month, September 2019. This will come as rather a shock to many readers, but it illustrates the difficulty that honest people have in countering the politicians.
      .
      https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/book-reviews-enid-blyton-literature-1-6242952
      .
      We just are not aware of the influences that operated on us as children.
      .
      I could say much more on this subject, but I’m afraid that the moderators will be forced to perform their duties, even if they themselves find this line of thought fascinating.

  • 5
    4

    It will be a surprise if JVP gets even 10% of the vote. They are fielding a candidate to attract the protest vote which would otherwise has gone to Gota. JVP is playing the game for the benefit of UNP even though it was Sajith’s father who killed their great leader. JVP leaders except for Hadunnethi are tools of Ranil and his capitalist class and very rich with assets overseas. This scheme will become clear to everyone when they will ask their supporters to cast their second preference to UNP closer to the election day.

    • 3
      1

      Anura: Sajith is a better bet than some imported rogue and murder suspect.

  • 1
    2

    The Pandora’s Box was opened by Old King when he, in a hurry, split from SLFP. He did the same thing during the October Revolution too. That time it was New King & SBD corrupted his mind to take the uncertain PM position. That was about to cost his parliamentary seat go cancelled under the constitution S 93. Anyhow, New King rushed in and saved him. But he seems to be having done it again. Originally He wanted the EP position reserved to Son Prince in 2025. So, he may not have anybody from his family stood this time for election. He wanted to depend on Ranil for his family safety in this election until they can emerge out. In 2015, he had realized what a perilous mistake on family’s security to call election two years early, only to dodge the country’s economic and loan problems. He would have let the country to go to hell if he had foreseen the problem he saw on the Jan, 8th, 2015 night. But, when Old Brother Prince was misguided this time, he feared Prince winning the election from Slap Party, while Old King is still in SLFP. So he took the risk and came out of SLFP to Slap Party. Then he declared Old Brother prince as the EP candidate too early. If that has not happened, he would hang in SLFP until EP election takes place and New King loses his seat. That time SLFP would have gone to Old King. He could plan a lot leisurely, including how to wind down SLFP before his move over to Slap Party. By rushing too early, as I said earlier, now he opened the Pandora’s Box to his opponents bring in all kind of methodologies and techniques to defeat Old Brother Prince. This is pricking the Old King’s pride too.

  • 1
    1

    As usual Ranil may have plans to save him first, in either case, Old Brother Prince wins or Vaalaiththodam wins. Then he would start to take care of Old Royals. But that cannot be guaranteed thing for Old Royal’s consideration. Now all things are indicating they need to take very safe moves for their family safety. If Old Brother Prince wins, Ranil will take care of the rest of the matters of their family security, though this is more reliable for local cases. But this cannot prevent UNHRC or IJTP or Ahimsa’s like actions. If Vaalaiththodam Jr wins, as Prof. Kumar has said already, he would start to think of 2025 election. So he would not allow his position go perilous as much as Ranil allowed his one, to lose the next election. This would put Old Royal permanently out of power and even to close to many local cases flare up(, even if external pressure goes down). So if Old Brother Prince could not stand for election, Old King would allow the closing date to pass without filing anybody’s name. The deposit can be retaken until the end of the closing time. This could be a way to reduce the enmity with Vaalaiththodam. When Old Royal wins September, 2020 election, they can work with him.

  • 5
    2

    Yes! Prof! There are a lot of uncertainties. All the political animals presented don’t deserve the vote of the respected. All the parties and individuals named in your article have blood on their hands. Let us just concentrate on one parameter, namely the value of the rupee. Can any one of them provide a credible program to strengthen the currency? NO! They all come for one purpose and we don’t have to repeat it. The country and the ordinary are the losers.

    • 1
      1

      “Sinhalese Modayas can be corrected only from bullets not from ballets”
      Sinhalese modayas history well discussed by foreign agents and then plans are implemented. Rajapkse’s tribes well suited for foreign interest…first they are Tamil-Malays-Chinese. They were brought to Sri lanka given Singhalese titles by colonials and if Rajapkses come to power this time, foreign spies will implement all sly programs to undermine Sinhalese by legally mean.

      Remember, last week foreign spies said, ” Sinhalese majority only by number.”
      Rajapkses are reinvented by “revisiting colonial spies who brought them to Sri lanka.

  • 2
    0

    Why this double game, Prof. Kumar? Your party is supporting AKD and you are asking people to put the second preference against Gota. You say your Jaympathi must continue in the Yahapalanaya. But your party secretary Lal Wijenayakke is saying only to vote for AKD. No talk of second preference. And Lal says your party has decided to leave the Yahapalanaya. Please explain this.

  • 8
    1

    I entirely agree with Sinhala Man and Lankan.
    Some of us are trying hard to do just this but to clear even
    the one million vote hurdle (the first step in a longer say 5 year
    process) is bloody hard work.
    Come out and help us (and correct us when we err); writing
    to CT alone is not enough).
    Kumar

  • 1
    3

    KD,
    THE PALACE IS WHERE THE MIND IS!

    Even though many JVP activists have given up not only the party but aslo the Marxism and gone their own ways – some on apolitical liberal (Victor Ivan) while others towards taking the most extreme ends: Embracing corruption as Wimal W or joining extreme version like FSP, it seems like you still are holding on to your love affair with JVP that began in your youth. That explains why can’t recognize the fact that, despite the obvious lip-service of racial harmony, they are not any different from the effort to cultivate S/B votes. here are two major points:
    1. The lack of minority representation in the leadership. The truth is that UNP & the SLFP have more minority representation that the JVP. Despite the superficial appearance within their political tactics, even SLPP leaders maintain more ties with Tamils (even at family level) & Muslims. Also, it is fact that JVP actively sought to alienate minorities (Tamils in particular), as a cheap propaganda tool among S/B, by spreading tactic of Indian Expansion (the first of the infamous five class. I see now it is pushed to the second), a fear tactic on hand hand and on the other hand, portraying estate Tamils as a more privileged working group than the S/B working class.
    2. JVP failed completely to stand to protect Muslim communities from the post Easter attacks; did nothing against A Rathan’s fast unto death campaign; did nothing to protect Muslim neighborhoods from organized attcks; and didn’t utter a word against against unfair treatment of Dr Safi. As active politicians, only Rajitha Senarathne & Magal Samaraweera were brave enough to stand up even amidst fear from their own supporters! JVP’s inaction & silence only indicate that they employed a strategy of not alienating S/B votes. Lip-service is cheap. What matters is action when it is needed most.

  • 3
    0

    From today a person is entitled to posess 80 litres of Foreign Liquor.
    Whiskey in exchange for votes.
    No place for Arrack or Kasippu.
    Another brain child of the Finance Minister Mangala.

    Who is the lesser Evil who has the bigger stock of Foreign Liquor wins the PE.

  • 4
    1

    The question is, against a backdrop of present turmoil and chaos in SL how the common man will vote? Spiraling cost of living, strikes etc. will affect the way they vote. They may not vote for a candidate but they may vote against the current mob. Thus far, Sajith has distanced himself from RW and clan…

  • 4
    0

    NO way should the JVP support the SLPP or UNP as both are the same and one family, what is need today to defeat both, otherwise there will be no change, we have seen 71 years rule with little change.

    We need to defeat both this parties in sheep skin.

  • 10
    1

    Kumar

    Pres Polls: Too Early To Predict Outcome.

    The above is premature. Gotha has asked for his Passport back to travel to Singapore for medical treatment.There is nothing wrong with him physically. Yes he is a Sick man mentally out of fear.The case at the Court of appeal might go against him and if he is found guilty of obtaining Citizenship fradulently he cuold go to Jail . But no doubt he will be out of jail in few seconds. But his Presincy will go up in flames and with the trial in the USA he is about to do a runner. Go to Singapore under the guise of treatment and head to China his final resting place to escape justice . It is up to the so called Civil Society to take out an INJUNCTION exparte to stop him escaping.
    The former Attorney Silva another moron is advising that there is no legal basis even if you obtain citizenship fradulently in Sinhala Lanka. We know what to expect if MR & Gotha reach the top god forbid

    • 6
      1

      Kali,
      Yes, It is premature to predict outcome. Everyone is shouting loudly about the court cases against Gota’s validity but I think it will be in favour of Gota not because he is genuine but the judiciary is not brave enough to make a decision that is not favourable to Rajapaksa family. Rajapaksa family still hold power and influence over judiciary. However, those who voted against to Rajapaksa is not happy with the present government (both Sirisena and Ranil), they will not vote Rajapaksa family again. Sajith has to do lot to keep that votes instead of it going to JVP or any other. Although TNA has not confirmed its support to Sajith, definitely Tamils will not vote for Gota or Mahinda ever. So, it is tough but depends on what they tell to the people how they are going to deal with the corruption, terrorism, and devolution of power.

      • 4
        0

        If Gotabhaya is allowed to contest he will win. For that matter any pambaya put forward by Mahinda will win. UNP never won the presidential election in the past without the support of Tamils. In 1989 Premadsa won narrowly because LTTE wanted Tamils to vote for him. In 1994, Tamils supported Chandrika who got a landslide victory against Mrs. Dissanayake. In 2005 Ranil lost as he did not receive Tamil votes because LTTE prevented them from voting. Sajith Premadasa does not want to know about this reality and is banking on Sinhala chauvinism. He should be taught a lesson by Tamil voters by not voting for him. He arrogantly says Premadasas never lose elections and thinks that despite him not willing to come to an agreement with TNA, he can hoodwink Tamils and get their votes. Sajith will turn out to be a worst racist than Gota to keep his political future alive.

        • 1
          0

          Yes, Sajith could be like his father – use minorities to his advantage…

        • 3
          1

          Dear Dr. Sankaralingam,
          .
          Now that Gota has got over the legal obstacles, what do we do?
          .
          I intend fighting tooth and nail until the 16th of November. We may have to wait to see what the nominations are on Monday, the 7th. After that, we fight – with our words and our rhetoric.

  • 6
    2

    How come most have forgotten the 1988-89 era when under a UNP government more than 60,000 youth was killed. It is a shame that JVP has forgotten this fact when most who were killed were JVP members. After all it was a Premadasa government.

    • 3
      0

      Dear Hermann,
      .
      These are all politicians, with slogans like, “there are no permanent friends or foes in politics”. Even the JVP have to be like that – but they do have an ideology – unlike the UNP and the SLFP. Yes, we too often forget that pure Marxism is a noble ideology, which will remain unexplored by Sinhala_Man.
      .
      Let’s hope that the JVP and the Alternatives forge a joint front by “compromising” (crude semantics – one must say “accommodating other points of view”). Hermann, I’m sure that you are a mature man and that you understand that by now.
      .
      We have to hold on to our ideals. The Alternatives are not politicians, although like all humans, they have their share of ego. Once we take up a position, few of us are willing to let go.
      .
      You are wrong in this: almost nobody would have forgotten events as recent as 1988 89. We just don’t want to be held prisoner by past events. Let us go forward.
      .
      That insurgency is as nothing, compared with the massive task facing us in bringing about reconcilliation (“sanghidiyawa” in Sinhalese) between the three “ethnic” groups in the country.

  • 4
    1

    Too Early To Predict Outcome, eh? Can you do it on 17/11?

  • 6
    2

    Whatever the outcome, what a pathetic choice does the country have before it for the most powerful post in the country.
    The two leading candidates unlike their predecessors do not even pretend any intent of doing away with the executive presidency or curtailing excessive powers.
    Devolution of power is the only way out of the political crisis. There even the JVP is unwilling.
    No political party bowing to chauvinist sentiments can deliver the country out of its present mess.

    • 2
      0

      SJ, Here is something from you I can agree with.

      • 2
        0

        And I, dear Thappu.
        .
        SJ, we will have to assess the situation after the campaign begins to take shape by about Thursday, the 10th.
        .
        The Alternatives have many good listeners. They represent the best chance we have beheld since we baby-boomers became adults. Let’s do all that we now can to persuade them to form a joint front with the JVP.
        .
        What we now say and write does matter. Hopefully, some of those leaders are monitoring our comments.

  • 5
    0

    The JVP will get between 5%-7% of the votes. The name JVP still scares the hell out of many including my own parents. That’s the ground reality. The sooner they realize it the better. Through the SLFP & UNP have now evolved into other political fronts, combined they still make up a huge block of votes. That’s why people like Vasu, Dinesh and all the other leeches cling on to these two groups for survival. Not to forget the likes of Nagananda and Pallewatte who have aspirations of winning the presidency on their own. They should be lucky if their own families vote for them.

    • 2
      0

      We’re back to bluff and double bluff aren’t we?
      .
      Now try to see the rest of what I say as pedestrian fact. I met Nagananda, albeit briefly. One of his lieutenants was my dorm mate and I have been phoning his team. Nagananda has no aspirations. Only one candidate from Alternatives & Marxists ideally. Of course ego can wreck all. This is where PREFERENCES start to matter. JVP cannot advocate them from platform. Marxists are notoriously sectarian.
      .
      Individuals must think this out and go house to house. I know that this sounds devious! Got to know when to to talk literally and when to use irony.
      .
      I don’t know Pallewatte. Can he understand that selflessness is now the need? So successful hitherto; can he not see what you can? Blowing in the wind!
      .
      This cloa6and dagger stuff is nightmaresish. Welcome openness!
      .
      You may have to wait till two days after elections. We have to contend with Politics being a dirty game.
      Will set you an exercise in Part 2.

      • 2
        0

        Sorry, excuse typos from the Android phone:

        PART ONE
        .
        In my second (and longest) paragraph I have typed the singular “paragraph” instead of the plural “paragraphs”. I feel that hardly matters; similarly in the phrase, “cloak and dagger”. I won’t try to correct any others as obvious as that.
        .
        A more serious error: I’ve said that to know who the “real” candidates are, we must wait after the elections. An absurd statement. It should have been two days after nominations. the situation by about Thursday, the 10th of October, 2019.
        .
        PART TWO
        .
        I have carelessly dropped the number of votes polled by “Ratnayake Arachchige Sirisena” and “Namal Ajith Rajapaksa” by more than three thousand each. I must apologise to them. but I feel that the errors hardly matter to the average reader, do they?
        .
        There are many sites for you to get the statistics. This will give you all seven previous elections.
        .
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Presidential_elections_in_Sri_Lanka

        We’ve been getting interested in how Preferences are going to be counted. May I proffer this as more useful for this purpose?
        .
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_mayoral_elections
        .
        Only Two Preferences there, instead of the Three that we have. In the discussions in Sri Lanka during the last three months, that extra Preference has hardly seemed to matter, and in a first description of the system, it may be left out. However, I’d advocate marking all three.
        .
        I’m giving you all this in the hope that you will be explaining it to all acquaintances, not just to your peers. Our most important category of voters are monolingual Swabasha speakers. At Election time analysis gets very ethnic. It’s funny that so little attention is given to these citizens, who constitute the huge majority.

    • 2
      0

      Part 2
      .
      All readers here are computer literate. Look at 2015 results and observe order listing 19 Candidates:
      .
      1. My3 – winner 6.2 million
      .
      2. Mara – runner-up 5.7 million
      .
      3. Sirisena (sic) with about 15K
      .
      4. Namal Rajapaksa (sic) about 12K
      .
      .
      Do you get it now? The cynicism with which the typical politicians manipulate? So my village neighbours try to be cunning, but they fail to see that this world is no place for simplistic Sinhala-Buddhist cunning.
      .
      Already I see ASP Liyanage (one-time envoy to Qatar) mentioned as a candidate. Those are your politicians.
      .
      The JVP guys have been in Parliament. Ipso facto they’re Politicians who have longterm goals.
      .
      The Alternatives & Professor Kumar David are not Politicians, they’re Intellectuals.
      .
      Study the track records of these Intellectuals. I may always be wrong, or a knave myself!

  • 5
    1

    Gota will be more devilish than MR; Sajith will be more foolish than MS. Choose an alternative, even if it is an unrepentant JVP.

  • 1
    0

    “Replace Executive Presidency forthwith” is a mirage in light of the entrenched mindset of “Us” the majority Sinhala Speakers and “Them” the others who are mainly Tamil Speakers.
    The mindset has been honed to the right-wing extreme nationalistic Bodu Bala Sena_Buddhist SL.
    .
    The Executive Presidency was the warped brainchild of JR J to prop the Grand Old UNP which earlier laid the foundation of the “Us&Them” syndrome.
    Then came Constitutions again to suit individuals.
    Abolish Executive Presidency and replace with what?
    .
    Prof Kumar David ponders {“Pres Polls: Too Early To Predict Outcome”}
    Failed journalists and political activists ponder ponder ponder.

  • 5
    3

    Prof. David, you should not generalize and declare that the Sinhalese do not care if all the Tamils were thrown under a steam-roller!! This is most unbecoming of a person who has the prefix of “professor”. There are many Sinhalese who care for their Tamil neighbours dearly, and vice-versa. Please be midful and such generalized statement id unhelpful.

    • 3
      1

      Dear “kumar soysa”,
      .
      I have come to recognise, from your comments (which are never flippant) that you are a deeply religious, but not sanctimonious, Christian. Yes, we are both Sinhalese who care dearly for our Tamil neighbours.
      .
      However, we must note that Kumar is talking about the “block of voters” who automatically vote for Gota. He, emphatically, does not identify these people as Buddhists – Gautama would never have advocated throwing anybody under a steamroller.
      .
      By now in our socio-political discourse we have come to identify a category of persons as “Sinhalese-Buddhists”. They are an insult to all Sinhalese, and to Buddhism. I’m afraid that almost every one of them will be quite happy to see every “Demalar” perish.
      .
      When in school, we were taught to think of “Tamil” as a bad word! When I met Nagananda for three minutes, I told him to change just one thing that he was doing very piously – referring to the people of Jaffna as “Dravida”. They are proud of their heritage, and quite happy to be called Tamils. We Sinhalese, too, are Dravida.
      .
      I’m not here finding fault with anybody (except blind Gota supporters!): just pointing out that we must give some thought to the nomenclature that we use.
      .
      This Professor writes most interestingly, but I think he owes you an apology – for a minor error of judgement.
      .

  • 2
    0

    We have got enough from these 2/3 parties and still many talk about who should be elected this time out of them. Don’t we want to get out of this pit? Do these writers and commenters here know there are some alternatives appeared in the horizon?

  • 1
    0

    KD, when Lankans including the experts discuss about our constitution , I just feel it is nothing but hilarious and waste of time. It is obvious our constitution seems to have much more HOLES than what actually it could HOLD.It is obvious politicians regardless of party line , make sure there is enough holes for them to wriggle out, when necessary. For argument sake, no Lankan politician will ever sign mandatory prison/life term for corruption/high crimes , because if that is the case , 50 to 75 % of current members, right now will be sitting elsewhere.The current proceedings on Gotha,s eligibility , confirms that our “constitution is not even worth the paper it is written”.

  • 2
    0

    JVP is an alternative for the Tamils. The Tamils should state their minimum demands, which would be : 1. Devolution with power over land policy and police. (2) Giving back land and removal of the army (3) find the missing persons or what happened to them (4) prosecute war criminals. The stance of the candidates on these issues should be sought. Anura Kumar will agree to all of them. He should get the Tamil votes. The other two will not agree.They will not get 50 per cent. Anura Kumara would get the second votes and will stand a chance of becoming President. It will be a good change.

    • 2
      0

      Good to hear from you, dear Mama Sinhalam,
      .
      Here’s hoping that justice is finally delivered and that you will never again be forced to let out that despairing cry which has become your handle.
      .
      The import of that last sentence of yours is not clear to me. I’m sure that it would be good to have people giving their 2nd or 3rd Preference to AKD. We should thank them sincerely.
      .
      However, those by themselves will not be sufficient. The JVP (or whomever we fancy) must be hauled into SECOND place, minimum, if the Preferential votes FOR THEM are to be counted – from other voters. I’m sure that you will understand once you focus on this bit of arithmetic. The challenge before us is to persuade people to focus their minds on this.
      .
      Very few will. I forecast lots of meaningless votes (details of which will never be known to us). There won’t be an increase in spoilt votes just because all is set for a quadrupling (at least) of Preferential Voting.
      .
      Let me hope that there are one or two Tamil and Muslim candidates. In theory, I’d welcome it; and welcome their casting of a SECOND Preference. However, if that justifiable message of protest is sent through FIRST Preferences (the only way to get them heard), the JVP could get lots of “never-discovered” Preference Votes, but end up only third – which will not be much different from being twentieth.
      .
      It is sad that no minority person is going to be a credible candidate. If a guy like Imtiaz Bakeer Markar were contesting, and seemed a possible winner, I’d gladly vote for him. I think, Mama Sinhalam, that you know that I mean that.

      • 3
        0

        I’m sorry – and puzzled.
        .
        Wrote that off-line and pasted it there. These words ought to have appeared just after what is in bold:
        .
        https://srilankamirror.com/news/15236-gota-sajith-in-trouble-if-there-are-more-than-3-presidential-candidates
        .
        He says exactly that in a Sinhalese video.
        .
        Can’t account for the omission, unless it is something contained in that warning not post too many links, and it’s got filtered out in “computer-generated” fashion. To live is to be confronted with problems. That’s what Sophocles meant when he got somebody to say, “Call no man happy until he is dead” in his Oedipus play.
        .
        Humanity’s next battle may be with AI programmed robots!

        .

  • 1
    4

    This person’s English is like sinahalese man speak Tamil with his inauthentic language .
    This person kills English language with his style of writing .
    I wonder if any nature English speaker could read this article .
    CT kills the natural taste of English .
    I would advice children should not read this paper at all.
    Reading it would ruin their English language

    • 3
      0

      Dear Lankan,
      .
      Which person’s English do you say is “sub-standard”? If you mean Prof. Kumar David’s, then that is amazing. Prof. Kumar may be an electrical engineer, but his General Knowledge and his English are amazing.
      .
      In this article, I see that he has reined in the natural exuberance of his language in an effort to make his message intelligible to readers for whom English is a foreign language.
      .
      There is a certain category of reader who reads neither for pleasure nor for information, nor to be challenged by the content. They want to improve their “basic English. I can certainly recommend an author for such readers: Enid Blyton.
      .
      It may not be obvious to Lankan that I’m paying rather a back-handed compliment to possibly the author of the highest number of books in the world.
      .
      Could you, yourself, please explain the phrase, “any nature English speaker”? The problem here is that Kumar David’s English is too good for you and your children.

  • 4
    0

    In Sri Lankan politics people usually vote for the two main parties . It does not matter how corrupt or how badly behaved these two major parties are. The main reason is people think only about themselves. People are so selfish. People are the ones who make politicians corrupt. That is the truth. If you ask majority of Sri Lankans why vote the certain politician , answer would be to get some kind of help.

    • 4
      0

      charles ,

      Spot on ! Politicians are being led to be all evil by the voters and
      the voters can not expect success after electing failures ! I have
      personal experience with people who knowingly decide to go
      with the wrong candidate either for personal benefit or for loyalty !
      People are so badly selfish and it is this selfishness that S L P P
      and other racist wheeler – dealers always target ! J V P is still opaque
      about how they will deal with our foreign affairs and international
      trade links . Their main target is seen to be dealing with corruption
      and fraud that is widespread . They are quite reluctant to discuss
      whether this fraud and corruption has any outside invisible hands !
      We have also seen instances where J V P’s former leader late
      Somawansa appeared on two different platforms in 2010 and 2015
      for Fonseka and Mahinda . When he appeared for Mahinda , he was
      not in J V P. My point here is , he became a typical Srilankan
      politician after losing his captaincy to A K D ! He didn’t decide to
      step aside and continue with the party . At age 72 he starts a new
      party in 2015 and dies in 2016 . He was in J V P for about 46 yrs
      and at the loss of his captaincy , he chooses to lead a new party !
      Why ? How come a J V P er behaves the same way the other
      traditional party men behave ?

  • 1
    1

    Charles, you are absolutely wrong about citizens getting help, rather they curse govt. which cant govern. Those at the top are competing to see who can rob country more to build family dynasty and will murder those who hinder. The top helps each other. Lasantha, Thajudeen and the rest will one day receive justice in unexpected form and its tragic that young girls unknowingly marry murderers.

    • 1
      0

      Dear Citizen,
      .
      It is, unfortunately, true that Charles and you are both right!
      .
      Most Sri Lankans go crawling to politicians for favours, but they are furious when they see the resultant gross unfairness of so much that is the result, they cry “foul”.
      .
      I’ve said “most Sri Lankans” – not all Sri Lankans.

  • 0
    0

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