By S. I. Keethaponcalan –

Dr. S. I. Keethaponcalan

A diagram of the number of presidential candidates who contested the elections since 1982 in Sri Lanka would look like a tick mark. Six candidates contested the first election in 1982, and the number went down to three in 1988. Since then, the numbers have been in ascendency. In 2019, 35 candidates were in the field. This time around, a total of 39 candidates are in the fray. Most of them are proxies strategically fielded to divide the votes of one of the leading candidates. Some proxy candidates are in the contest to mobilize resources for their favorite leaders. Although hardly noticed, some of the candidates have contested several elections. For example, Battaramulle Seelaratne Thera, who contested the 2010 election, endorsing Mahinda Rajapaksa, withdrew at the eleventh hour. Sri Lanka Labor Party’s A. S. P. Liyanage and the United Socialist Party’s Siritunga Jayasuriya are among the usual suspects.    

A new trend emerged in 2015, where proxies with leading candidates’ last names were fielded. The idea is to field proxy candidates with the opponent’s last name to “confuse” the voters. In 2015, Namal Ajith Rajapaksa (Our National Front) and Rathnayake Aarachchige Sirisena (Patriotic National Front) contested the election. The strategy worked, as Rathnayake Sirisena and Namal Ajith Rajapaksa received the third and fourth-highest votes, respectively. This year, the Samabala Party’s Namal Rajapaksa will take some votes from Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) Namal Rajapaksa.

SLPP’s Namal

One of the developments that surprised me in this election was the candidacy of the SLPP’s Namal Rajapaksa. The way the protesting public treated the Rajapaksa family during the aragalaya in 2022 imparted the perception that the Rajapaksa family’s politics were over. During the aragalaya, members of the Rajapaksa family were forced to resign one by one, culminating in President Gotabaya Rajapaksa stepping down from the presidency.

Namal Rajapaksa had to smuggle out his family for safety and security. Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa went underground and took shelter at a military base for the same reasons. Hence, the perception that Rajapaksas are finished. I did not believe the aragalaya ended the Rajapaksa family’s grip on Sri Lanka’s politics and political institutions. On July 16, 2022, I wrote on my X handle, “I would never rule out a Rajapaksa comeback. Short memories+nationalism+thick skin of Rajapaksas = possible comeback.” Now, Rajapaksas are back. However, I expected the family to sit this election out, study the outcome, and return in the next election. The “family” could not wait. Hence, Namal Rajapaksa is contesting on behalf of the SLPP.

The SLPP’s decision to contest this election indicates that the Namal faction of the party won the battle between the Namal and the Basil factions of the SLPP. Media reports indicated that Basil Rajapaksa preferred to support Ranil Wickremesinghe, while Namal Rajapaksa adopted a hostile attitude towards the President. Namal Rajapaksa wanted the party to contest the election rather than sit out. Therefore, the decision to contest the election demonstrates that Namal has successfully consolidated his position within the party. The SLPP will soon become Namal Rajapaksa’s party.      

The party knows that it cannot win this presidential election. Nevertheless, contesting the election has two main advantages. First, it will indicate the level of voter sympathy or hostility vis-à-vis the party in a post-aragalaya scenario. Currently, no one knows the level of support the party enjoys among Sinhala voters. Second, regardless of the result, the election will help to build Namal Rajapaksa’s image as a national leader. Therefore, from the SLPP point of view, the decision to contest was not a bad idea.

Anura Dissanayake

Not too long ago, many people believed that the National People’s Power (NPP)/Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake would win the presidential election. There were two reasons for this. First, some opinion polls predicted he would poll more than 50 percent of the votes. Second, his rallies attracted large crowds, giving the impression that he had a broad support base. I did not believe the opinion polls. Therefore, in an essay titled, “President Anura Kumara Dissanayake,” published in the Colombo Telegraph on March 22, 2024, I asked, “Can Dissanayake win the presidential election without minority and anti-socialist votes?” I am convinced that Dissanayake has very little chance of winning the election.

From a voter’s perception, one of the main problems in electing Dissanayake is that, like Gotabaya Rajapaksa, he is also “administratively” inexperienced and an idealist. Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s inexperience and idealism brought Sri Lanka to its knees in 2022. Therefore, some voters would be hesitant to vote for him. Dissanayake’s supporters argue that Sri Lankans, in general, want change. Consequently, they would elect him president in 2024. I doubt.    

Moreover, Dissanayake does not represent change because he is a seasoned politician who has been sitting in Parliament for about 24 years. A brief ChatGPT description of Dissanayake stated, “Anura Kumara Dissanayake has been a Member of Parliament (MP) in Sri Lanka since 2000. He first entered Parliament after the 2000 general elections, representing the Colombo District. He is a prominent member of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and has played a significant role in Sri Lankan politics since then.” I would be surprised if he polled more than fifteen percent of the votes in this election.

Wickremesinghe Vs. Premadasa

Since Namal Rajapaksa and Dissanayake cannot win the election, the actual race will be between Wickremesinghe and Premadasa. Two years ago, Wickremesinghe was an unpopular politician. In the 2020 parliamentary election, his party, the United National Party (UNP), could not win a single seat. The party gained one seat through the national list. Wickremesinghe decided to not conduct the local authority elections due to his fear that the voters would punish his coalition. However, in the last few weeks, his popularity has increased mainly due to the state of the economy.

During the economic crisis, many believed and predicted that the Sri Lankan economy would collapse, taking the country down with it. It could have happened. Incidentally, Wickremesinghe became president and contributed immensely to stabilizing the country and its economy. Although the country is not out of the woods, it is on track and may recover thanks to Wickremesinghe’s intervention. Many voters now fear that a change of government could undermine the progress made in the last two years. Therefore, voter “fear” is currently driving Wickremesinghe’s popularity up. Interestingly, many voters who wanted “change” in 2022 may yearn for “continuity” in 2024. Therefore, the central voter dilemma in this election would be whether to choose “change” or “continuity.” Wickremesinghe undoubtedly represents continuity.

On the other hand, Sajith Premadasa of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) polled about 42 percent of the total votes cast in the last presidential election. He has not done anything to damage those 42 percent votes. One main criticism against Premadasa is that he did not take responsibility when Gotabaya Rajapaksa invited the SJB, the main opposition party, to join the government during the crisis. The argument is that Wickremesinghe accepted the responsibility and fixed the economy. Hence, he should be voted in as president.

However, if I remember correctly, Premadasa refused to join the Gotabaya Rajapaksa administration because he did not want to work with the discredited SLPP. Wickremesinghe did not hesitate to work with the SLPP and protected its leaders. Therefore, I expect Premadasa to do well in this election.

In sum, the race will be between Wickremesinghe and Premadasa. Since Namal Rajapaksa (of the SLPP) and Anura Kumara Dissanayake will share about 25 percent of the votes, it would not be easy for Wickremesinghe or Premadasa to poll the required 50 percent votes. Only an extremely strong candidate could win 50 percent of the total votes from about 75 percent of the available votes. Perhaps Sri Lanka will be forced to count second and third preferential votes for the first time. It will be a different ballgame if the election drifts into the second count.                 

*Dr. S. I. Keethaponcalan is a Professor of Conflict Resolution at Salisbury University, Maryland. He was formerly a Professor of Political Science at the University of Colombo, Sri Lanka.