26 October, 2020

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Presidential Election: Facts Are Stubborn 

By Rusiripala Tennakoon –

Rusiripala Tennakoon

Statistics Show Better Than What Stars Try To Foretell 

Presidential elections round the corner. Politicians, contestants are lining up for spiritual blessings. Temples, sacred religious places and other holy surroundings dedicated for worship are generously patronized. However recent events and developments do speak loudly of the possibilities. Statistics available in the political scenario are more relevant.

 As to the spiritual there could be a question; as to the material there could be none.”!

In the context let us examine some of the relevant statistical information available.

In the last Presidential Election the voting was as follows:

New Democratic Front      Maithreepala Sirisena                             6,217, 162           51.28%

UPFA                                     Mahinda Rajapaksa                                  5,768,090         47.58%

17 different candidates                                                                             138,200             1.14%

12 Districts were won by Maithreepala Sirisena and 10 Districts were won by Mahinda Rajapaksa

Average Voting Perecentage was  81.52%

Lowest polling percentages were recorded from Vanni, 72.57%; Trincomalee, 76.76%; Puttlam, 73.81%; Jaffna, 66.28%; Batticaloa, 70.97%.

The votes received by the winning candidate include UNP, section of SLFP, TNA, Muslim Congress, and some other parties. Of the parties other than the UNP the largest vote contribution came from the SLFP. 

In the 2015 August parliamentary election  

Election results

Party                                          No. of seats won   National list seats         Total  polled           Percentage

UNFGG (12 parties)*                   93                         13      106                           5.098,916                 45.66%

UPFA   (13 parties)**                  83                          12       95                             4,732,664                 42.38%

TNA    (4 parties)***                   14                          02       16                                 515,963                   4.62%

JVP                                                04                          02       06                                 544,154                   4.87%

SLMC                                            01                          ==       01                                   44,193                    0.40%

EPDP                                             01                         ==        01                                    33481                    0.30%

All others Parties,                        ==                          ==                                           203,814                     1.77%

Total                                             196                         29  = 225                                                                    100%  

                                                                                    Total polled                        11,684,098

                                                                                     Rejected                                   517,123                    4.43%

                                                                                    Valid votes                          11,166,975

                                                                                    Registered voters             15,044,490

                                                                                   Voting Percentage                                                    77.66%

                                                                                     

*     UNFGG =  ACMC+DNM+JHU+MTNA+NFGG+SLMC+TPA(DPF+NUW+UCPF)+ULF+UNP

**   UPFA=  CWC+CF+DNF+DPC+LP+MEP+NC+NFF+PHU+SA(CP+DLF+LSSP+NLPP+SLPP)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 *** TNA =   EPRLF+ITAK+PLOTE+TELO

TNA comprised of four Tamil Parties polled a total of 515,963 votes securing 4.62% of the total polled

JVP polled 543,944 votes securing 4.87% of the total votes polled

During the Presidential Election both these factors contributed to the total polled by NDF headed by MS. It is also reported that there is a new development in the North and East where TNA was dominating, to cast a protest vote against it because they have failed to bring about any development in these areas. Many believe that the TNA’s sole role has been to support the survival of the UNP government and they have neglected the welfare and problems confronted by the ordinary people who supported them. 

Several small political groupings have come to the open denouncing the list of demands put forward by the TNA to both major political parties seeking their recognition and acceptance if the TNA is to extend their support to them during the Presidential Election. These groups have pronounced that TNA is bringing forward these illusory demands deceitfully to obtain the support of the Tamil voters and mislead them. 

This new school of thought points out that;

  • TNA has completely failed to address the issues confronting the average Tamil citizens;
  • There are hundreds of thousands of Tamil people living in extreme poverty in the North and East;
  • The TNA has failed to grant or obtain from the government, any redress to these poverty –stricken people and they have been left in their destitute impoverished state without any remedial action;
  • The self-determination claim made by them is not what the people of North and East require.  They only want equality, impartiality and fairness and the infrastructure facilitation for them to be economically viable and self-sufficient;
  • They want to live in peace and harmony in any part of the country without any discrimination;
  • They yearn for communal harmony with the majority population, the Sinhalese;

The young and the educated Tamil youth grouped together with these broad objectives have declared in no uncertain terms that they are for one country and one rule with equal opportunities extended to all. They are very seriously concerned with the natural resources and the unexploited resource base available in the North and East and they demand the full utilization of this potential for the benefit of the country.

These educated youth have contacts with their colleagues living all over the world, identified as Tamil Diaspora and are confident their cause will be supported by the Diaspora in many ways, such as technological support, know how, investment etc. etc..

They are ready to register a political party initially confined to the Tamil speaking areas with the broad objective of representing them and obtaining solutions to their problems. Already they have started their campaign educating the voters about the farcical and ludicrous operations of the associated political parties under the TNA strongly denouncing the divisive communal policies they pursue ostensibly to hoodwink the Tamil voters to achieve their ulterior motive of sharing power with government by supporting their survival and enjoy benefits at the expense of the rights of the masses whom they represent. They  state that the TNA is committing a crime by forgetting the wellbeing of the masses while continuing their cordial relations with the government.

First the TNA wanted an assurance from the main parties about their separatist demands but they have now declared that the TNA is supporting Sajith  for the Presidency. This leaves us with the unanswered question as to whether the TNA has obtained the required assurance from UNP. Another secret compact? 

The TNA factor is of significant importance to Sajith’s vote bank. Therefore any development such as the  emanation in the North and East described above will have a serious negative impact to his result.

In 2018 February, Local Government elections were held. It was the largest election in the history of Sri Lanka where elections were held on the same day for 340 local authorities including Municipal Councils, Urban Councils and  Pradeshiya Sabhas (Divisional councils).

There were some significant factors associated with this election, viz.:

  • It was the first election to be held after the amendment of the Local Government Elections Act. Introduced by the Yahapalana Government;  
  • The new election laws encompassed a mixed election system with 60% to be  elected under the First –Past-the –Post and the balance 40% being chosen under proportional representation;
  • The two major parties of the so-called National Government broke apart to contest the election under their own party identities;
  • It was the first country wide election contested by the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna headed by the former President Mahinda Rajapakse;
  • It was a long overdue election in respect of several local bodies which had been dissolved and were placed under special commissioners;
  • JVP contested separately and has shown a marked increase in the number of votes polled for the first time;

The result was a complete surprise. In Summary form it is as follows:

POLITICAL PARTY                         NO. OF VOTES                    PERCENTAGE SECURED        NO OF SEATS WON  

Sri Lanka Pudujana Peramuna(1)           5,006,837                                         40.47%                3436

United National Front(2)                         3,640,620                                         29.42%                2433

U P Freedom Alliance (3)                         1,497,234                                            12.10%               1048

JVP                                                                 710,932                                              5.75%                  434

TNA(4)                                                           337,877                                               2.73%                  417

Independents                                               374,132                                              3.02%                  274

Tamil National Peoples Front                    85,198                                               0.69%                 102

EPDP                                                               74,128                                               0.60%                   98

TULF(5)                                                          72,493                                               0.59%                    78

Sri Lanka Muslim Congress                      92,897                                                0.75%                   73

All Ceylon Makkal Congress(6)                 85,437                                                 0.69%                  65

Ceylon Workers Congress                        100,641                                                0.81%                  59

Tamil Makkal Viduthalai Pulikal              44,062                                                0.36%                 37

Tamil Progressive Alliance(7)                     50,974                                                0.41%                 26

30 other parties                                          199,354                                                 1.61%                128

(1)SLPP =DLF+LSSP+MEP+NFF+PHU+SLFP (R) +TMVP

(2) UNF=ACMC+JHU+SLMC+TPA (3 groups)+UNP

(3) UPFA= CWC+NC+SLFP(MS)

(4) TNA=ITAK+PLOTE+TELO

(5)TULF= EPRLF+TULF

(6)ACMC=ACMC+UPA

(7)TPA=NUW+UPA(DPF)+UCPF

                                                           Valid Votes             12,372,816                                                100%                                  

                                                           Rejected Votes            210,970                                                1.68%  

                                                           Total polled            12,583,786                                              79.94%

                                                           Registered votes    15,742,371    

  • Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna(SLPP) has won 16 districts while the United National Front secured victory only in 4 districts (Amparai, Badulla, Mannar and Nuwra Eliya),Tamil National Alliance won 5 districts, Batticaloa, Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu and Vavuniya 
  • JVP which is contesting the Presidential Election has publicly declared that their voters will not cast a second preference, hence it will be a sizable swing away from the UNP front
  • The government which is virtually reduced to the UNP backed parties are facing serious disadvantages due to their poor governance accounting for several factors 
  • The shockingly alarming poor security situation OF THE COUNTRY.

It appears to be a hard business trip to any and all presidential candidates who have emerged from nowhere to get anywhere closer to the finish in this race. But for someone like Gotabaya Rajapaksa, of the SLPP who had been toiling for some time now openly interacting with the masses, elite and the intellectuals of the country arming and fortifying himself with sound policies while plodding his way up towards the Candidature, the journey may not be so difficult with the back up support his party has already built.  

This may appear incredible to those toying with speculation, but it is a fact as statistics will show.

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Latest comments

  • 15
    6

    You assume that all voters are the same from 2015 to 2019. Ranil and MY3 proved to be the most inefficient and most incompetent senior executives this country has ever seen. You can crunch the numbers in any way you like to satisfy your ego .New voters will make a difference this time. Gota will loose.

    • 1
      5

      Say it again!

      Soma

      • 3
        0

        soma -“Say it again!” somass

        • 4
          0

          Rusiripala, the purpose of your article is not about presidential election but to denounce Tamil parties for putting forward their demands. Do you not have any intelligence to decipher that this was done at the instigation of a foreign power. Do you not find a similarity between now and the situation of pre-parippu drop in 1987. You have toiled hard and ended up with nothing. All your statements about enlightened thinking of Tamil youth is rubbish. Do you say that Tamils do not have self respect and are prepared to live in subjugation enjoying crumbs thrown at them by Sinhala governments. If you say what is true, are you prepared to hold a referendum among Tamils for independence. The demand put forward by Tamil parties is not separatist as you claim, but based on international norms. It may be not palatable to Sinhala racists but will be accepted as fair by any independent observer. As far as Tamils are concerned no Sinhala government will allow them to live in dignity and safety and only by international intervention that they will get their rights to rule themselves. Whether you like it or not, this is going to take place whoever is elected to office. Tell your Sinhala bigots that their rhetoric that they will not bow down to foreign pressure is just empty talk.Remember when Modi during his last visit to Sri lanka said to implement 13th amendment fully and go beyond, none of your card board weerayas opened their mouths. Read the Indo-Sri Lanka accord of 1987 carefully, which gives India authority to implement the accord if the need arises. With BIP either you obey or face the consequence.

    • 2
      0

      Mr. Bin-Go,
      /
      Cant understand your foolish logic.
      \
      First you say 2019 voters are not same like 2015….
      Then you say MY3 / Ranil / Sajith government is the most INEFFICIENT and most INCOMPETENT one we have ever seen……
      /
      And then you say “”Gota will loose””
      \
      Cant understand your way of CRUNCHING…

  • 15
    2

    Yes, one can look at past statistics, analyse them, extrapolate them, interpret them, whichever way one desires and chooses. Since there are no credible official polls in SL, it may be imprudent to predict the final outcome. The Presidential election is unique in that the vote is for the ‘Executive’ of the Nation and the votes are tallied island wide for each Contestant.

    The chemistry in SL in 2019 is different to the one that prevailed in 2015. Therefore, the final outcome of the election in 2019 will depend on different factors the outcome of which past data and statistics will not show.

    For starters, the so called invincible, ‘criminally tainted’, vastly popular MR is not in the fray. Instead, he has put forward a proxy (NGR) who has a dubious record and a questionable history. NGR is not a patch on MR. It may be, MR has blundered again (previously he failed to gauge the mood of the People and called an election 2 years’ in advance). In my mind, ‘psychopath’ NGR is totally & unquestionably unsuitable in all respects, to lead the Nation. A ‘Leader’ has to have the right temperament. Seeing the now famous BBC interview (where he asked ‘who is Lasantha?’), his uncontrollable temper and temperament were evident for all to see. Do we want to entrust our beloved country to such a ‘psychopath’ and narcissistic individual who may be a foreign citizen?

    Voters, please be warned and please use your franchise wisely (if you value democracy, free speech and basic human rights). We hope and pray the hope and expectation of a brighter future will dawn on 17 November, 2019 where the Rajapaksa clan will be banished from SL Politics for good. For, as long as they are there, the Nation will not prosper.

    • 11
      0

      If our people value democracy, free speech and basic human rights would there be a GR on the ballot. A vast majority of our people want to maintain ‘Sinhala Supremacy’, whatever that may mean or entail, to rule the nation. Everything else is secondary to them. In 2015, it was the anti MR sentiment that dethroned him. RW grabbed that moment, together with MS, who accepted the opportunity of his life with both hands. But, it was like a carriage drawn by a donkey and a mule!

  • 6
    1

    You are right on the money.
    This may be hurtful reading to a lot of UNP suckers..
    But facts are stubborn as you say..

  • 4
    2

    Gota Hora or GH will start killing the young, and that will start with his family,

  • 5
    0

    Rusiripala, leave the number game for statisticians and get to facts. Rajapaksas told us LTTE is no more, though some of their uniforms are randomly found, at their request. . Now US says “BID DADDY” is no more. The question to you , Is Easter alone enough to see Gotha cross the line or will he need another dummy ASAP, for target practice before elections.

    • 0
      0

      chiv,

      You guys can counter it by bringing Thajudeen & Lasantha back from the grave………

  • 2
    2

    analysis of the LG elections
    gota has a 40.5% block vote that is guaranteed for him.IF you add CWC it is 41.5%.Add EPDP and you get 42% if we So now we know that gota will not get less than 42%.Now the million dollar question is how will the SLFP vote.Assuming all 12% vote for him he gets 54% and a handsome victory.
    However we all know that it is not so simple as that.The SLFP seems divided.Dayasiri and mob in the working committee are direction the SLFP voters towards the SLPP.Sirisena has become neutral.Chandrika is directing the SLFP towards the UNP.So based on this a third of the SLFP may vote for SLPP and a third may just stay neatral and wait at home and a third may vote for UNP.
    If so gota will get 42+4%= 46%.Still not able to make it on the first countAssuming half the SLFP will vote for him he will get 48%.This is the most likely outcome if you look at only the LG elections.
    however since th LG elections a new factor has come in which is the sajit premedasa one.The name premedasa still resonates with the poor and rural folk.So what if the block vote for the SLPP of 40.5% at the LG elections is not valid anymore.Assuming sajit will draw out 5% of that then the UNF vote will increase from 29.6% to 34% and the SLPP will be reduced from 40.5% to 36%.Of the SLFP vote sajit is likely to get 6% which will bring him up to 40%.he might also get 5% from the tamil and muslim parties which will raise his vote to 45%.The JVP vote is not for either gota or sajit says anura kumara in the usual selfish manner which then becomes a wasted block vote of about 6%.

    • 0
      1

      shankar,

      CBK will not win even Aththanagalla for UNP. So your assumptions may need to be revised. Based on your calculations, Gota needs about 66% of SLFP vote base. He might get at least 80% of SLFP vote base. In that case Gota wins! EPDP also might increase their vote base due to the failures of TNA/yahapalanaya adding further buffer to Gota.

      • 0
        0

        hela

        you may be right.I’am really not sure of the SLFP votebase which is a crucial issue here.The fact that sirisena is neutral is a crucial factor and SLFP voters are going to notice that.Who is dayasiri and all these others.people know that they would have been promised plum ministries by basil.If as you say CBK does not have much clout now,i expect two thirds of SLFP voters to stay neutral or vote for sajit,because they know that sirisena and sajit are close to each other and SLFP will be looked after if sajit wins.Anyway the sajit factor is more important now than the divided SLFP factor i think.I have only said that sajit may take 5% of the SLPP block votes of 40.5%.What if it is more.Also what if many youth who are eligible to vote for the fist time vote for sajit?The sajit factor will screw up gota. it will be a tight race to the finish line with a homoerectus,homosapien and a homosexual in backstage.
        ps.homoerectus only believed in breaking the skulls of homosapiens.However homosapiens eventually won and they say homoerectus is extinct,but when i see the behaviour of some people i don’t think that they are fully extinct.

  • 5
    0

    Rusiri, Bad Boy. I can see you, not doing the home work I gave you. Listen buddy try reading, any one article of today CT . Laksiri, Neville or Sanjeewa (which ever you find easy to read, comprehend and digest) before you are at it. I will check your home work next time.

  • 0
    4

    The plantation Tamils are ouitcast. Next in ;line are Baticola Tamils. The Jarfna tamils have being exploiting the others. This Vote bank has to be exploited by GR. They have to be freed. The plantation tamils are in many estates. Religion, Race, and poverty has to be used to project the presidentional poll. There has tyo be questionaire to find the projrcted result

  • 4
    0

    lies ,damn lies and statistics

  • 3
    4

    All my friends and relatives are voting for Gota.

    Soma

    • 3
      0

      soma – “All my friends and relatives are voting for Gota”. Because they belong to a group known as “Somass”.

    • 0
      0

      i thought the zoo does not have any votes soma.

  • 6
    0

    You have all forgotten that many UNP voters did not go out to vote at the local government elections because they were disenchanted with Ranil. Careful analysis of these results reveal Pohottuwa did not get UNP votes but UNP vote bank went down drastically from the elections of 2015.
    The new candidacy of Sajith Premadasa might cause the sleeping giant to rise .
    In such a scenario victory is assured for him

  • 6
    0

    Rusiri, man, you are day dreaming, looking like the man waiting for falling crumbs of the Rajapaksa’s. Man, Sajith would win with thumbing margin. In the streets and corners of the country, the emporia and fire works which ensured Gota’s candidacy is fast fading by the minutes. Day by day, all debacle like – the maiden press conference, his inability to speak properly without aids, his health and age, all the open in fightings in their camp etc are causing huge doubts among all and sundries, taking the shine away from GR, and making people to shift to young, strong and hard hitting Sajith. From his strong and dynamic showings on daily basis people are discovering, that they are in for a true charismatic leader who surrounds himself with hugely high caliber people, and would take the country forward with tremendous vigour for the good of all. The true testimony for this the huge and massive crowds flocking to Sajith’s rallies in all and every corners of the country.

    • 0
      3

      Aiyo Ranjith,
      Will Sajith’s victory bring Ranil and his Royal samanalayas back to power. Oh please don’t predict another Political catastrophe. This country cannot withstand a royal debacle any which way. Royal is a dirty word in Sri Lanka.

  • 0
    0

    Hela, It is not just me. Even Gommanpilla says “people think Gotha was behind Easter. Read today Daily Mirror. Is it true Hela ???????

  • 0
    0

    Susiri did not use the method of “Rational Expectations” developed by Prof. Robert Lucas who won the Nobel Price for Economics for his contribution. Instead, Rusiri used Augmented Expectation method which says agents future behavior can be explained by looking at their past behavior. That method is no longer correct.
    In determining the future behavior of the people Rusiri must use all the information available including the young voters who will use their franchise for the first time in November 2019. Moreover, candidature,s recent political contribution for the country should be taken into account,
    A farmer knows how to work in a paddy field much better than a soldier in a war front.

  • 0
    0

    Susiri did not use the method of “Rational Expectations” developed by Prof. Robert Lucas who won the Nobel Price for Economics for his contribution. Instead, Rusiri used Augmented Expectation method which says agents future behavior can be explained by looking at their past behavior. That method is no longer correct.
    In determining the future behavior of the people Rusiri must use all the information available . including, candidature,s recent political contribution for the country.
    A farmer knows how to work in a paddy field much better than a soldier in a war front.

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