By Vishwamithra –

“Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better.” ~ Samuel Beckett

We have been focusing mostly on the Opposition, largely on Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) and his party, National People’s Power (NPP). There is reason for this. AKD’s rise has been perceptible; some may have described it as meteoric; others as unbelievable. Whatever the adjective one uses, the exhibitionistic  fashion the NPP has been engaging in its political campaign has in turn engaged the focus of the masses. The abject conditions of the economy, its radical relationship to the personal lives of the people at large, its grave impact on their daily lives, its negative effect on the stripping of somewhat relative luxuries enjoyed by the middleclass and the lower middleclass not yet being deterred by the stringent application of the IMF recommendations has captured our collective attention.

The effects of the IMF-recommended measures may have had a noteworthy impact on the macro economy of the country. But has it succeeded to raise the economic condition of the average man living in the remote village in the country? Have his curses and sighs been curtailed? Have his children’s yearnings been satisfied? Are his children going to have a better life than their parents? These painful questions would undoubtedly bother the villager. His daily routine has changed. It has changed for the worse. The anxiety has been doubled; his despair is killing him; his loneliness is enveloping him and threatening to throttle him to death. Yet he has to go on living; he simply cannot give up hoping for a better sunrise. His hope for a better sunset than his sunrise sees no end. The finite span of his vision cannot capture the nuances of a complex life; nor does it allow him to venture into fresh lines of thinking, let alone new action.

The whole context of polity has undergone severe change and it’s threatening to destroy all what we has collected as our memories and pathetic legacy. The IMF calculus has not been able to read these subtle facets of life of an average villager. As an unfortunate consequence of this ‘failure’ on the part of these international lending agencies, politicians whose responsibility and duty is to implement the said recommendations do not possess that specific aspect of knowledge and information to impart into the populace. The populace loses trust in the politicians. When they lose that sacred element of trust, the system breaks down and restoration of that trust is almost impossible.

That is the fundamental advantage the National People’s Power (NPP) enjoys today. Although the NPP has not been tested and tried as a governing party in the past seventy five years, that very fact is presenting itself as the sole reason why the people are being attracted towards its leaders and pronounced policies. When one adds the skills and talents of those leaders to contextualize and orate in rich vernacular, the people listen. Gathering in thousands at the NPP rallies is no accident. When the people have lost their trust in the existing leadership, they look for alternatives, not substitutes. In the last seventy five years, it was a cycle of substitution; the Senanayakes and Jayewardenes were substituted by the Bandaranaikes and Rajapaksas. The battle between the traditional right versus the traditional left continued unbroken for three quarters of a century. Little wonder that the people got utterly fed up of this maddening cycle of musical chairs.

Nevertheless, insertion of Ranil Wickremesinghe into the cycle from outside the frame of Parliament and people’s choice has taken the people, not really by surprise; but by its own logic of constitutional application. The social media has made it much simpler and faster than a decade ago for the people to assimilate the subtle and shady aspects of our constitution. The youth, the segment of our population that is most occupied and educated to navigate the social media have learnt how to absorb and spread what they receive in their own Smartphones. Ranil Wickremesinghe, instead of embracing this fast-developing technological element of society-educating methodology, decided to hurl his venomous and nasty attacks on the users of this aspect of social media. Facebook and WhatsApp, Instagram, Twitter etc. have become a no-no for Ranil Wickremesinghe.

Caved in a thoroughly forgettable past and pretending to be flirting with the Western social circles, Ranil has been successful in deceiving a select crowd that he’s the answer to the fervent economic issues confronting the nation. Never at home with the masses, always happy to be amongst his close cohorts, he is continuing to be engaging in the most anti-society repressive measures that bring unspeakable sources of annoyance to the people. His psychological make up is beyond the mundane levels and coupled with an attitude pregnant with nasty vengeance and warped reasoning, Ranil proceeds to be a constant reminder of a man without a home and a happy past, present or future.

Yet to the utter sorrow of the voter, Ranil Wickremaesinghe is the Executive President and there is no way that the voter can disbar him from power. The only way in which Ranil can be ousted from that seat is through elections. The only way in which Ranil can stay on in power is to win at the elections. There is no other way that is open for Ranil. He cannot suspend the Constitution. He cannot postpone the election. He has to decide between contesting or not. In such a cruel circumstance, all indications are that he will contest.

Once that decision is made what options does he have? From what party would he contest? What coalition he would attempt to assemble? In the event he succeeds in assembling a coalition, which Party or Parties would join him? To discuss these options, in order to arrive at a reasonably accurate answer, we have to dig into the current political milieu and find out what appears as reasonable and what appears as impossible.

Options for Ranil Wickremesinghe:

1. Contest on the UNP ticket

2. Contest on a coalition between UNP and Pohottuwa ticket

3. Contest on a coalition between UNP and SJB ticket

4. Retire from politics

1. Contest on UNP ticket

It’s an easy choice to make but the results will be disastrous. The man who could not secure a single seat for the UNP at the last General Elections would be decimated if he contests as a candidate of the UNP. The old traditional UNP voters are with the Samagi Jana Balavegaya today. Not only  the voters, the second tier of leadership consisting of Sajith Premadasa, Ranjit Madduma Bandara, Kabir Hashim, Eran Wickremaratne and Harsha de Silva are seriously vying to be occupying Ministerial seats if and when their leader Sajith becomes the next Executive President. So it’s no option for him to take at this juncture.

2. Contest on a coalition between UNP and Pohottuwa ticket

The proposition of the United National Party forming a coalition with the Rajapaksa-led Pohottuwa group would not be the burial of the UNP, it will be the 3-months’ Dana after the cremation. Most, if not all, of the corruption charges led against our politicians are centrally focused on the Rajapaksa family; not that the UNP could be exonerated of that sin either, but the very collapse of the economy in 2022 April/May has been sourced by many pundits to the Rajapaksa family and their close henchmen and women. In such a cruel context, to be associated even remotely with Rajapaksas and the Pohottuwa rogues cuts an easy and undeterred path to vanishing. Ranil Wickremasinghe may be a cynical practitioner and advocate of crooked politics but I still maintain that he is not stupid. Aligning oneself with the Pohottuwa is political hara-kiri although more than one hara-kiri could be easily traced to Wickremasinghe and his cohorts.

3. Contest on a coalition between UNP and SJB ticket

The most logical option available for Ranil Wickremesinghe is a pact with Samagi Jana Balavegaya led by Sajith Premadasa. For a pact with the UNP and Ranil might be a tempting proposition for Sajith, provided Sajith is promised Premiership in a Ranil-led government; yet what positions are offered to of the rest of the SJB and its second tier leadership led by Eran, Harsha, Kabir and Madduma Bandara could be a make or break point in the discussions. Even if the second tier leadership is promised heaven and moon, there is no guarantee that they would agree to a coalition government with the Ranil-led UNP. The fissure between Eran and the crowd and Ranil Wickremesinghe may have gone too deep to be mended. Furthermore, there is no surety that Sajith would agree to work under President Ranil Wickremesinghe. Moreover, Sajith and the SJB would realize that any combination with Ranil and UNP would spell certain electoral disaster when pitted against AKD and the NPP. NPP would welcome such an electoral marriage between the SJB and the UNP.

4. Retire from Politics

The fourth option seems to be the wisest decision Ranil could make at this juncture. If he were ever to retire with a modicum of dignity, Ranil should realize that there is no way out for him other than retirement. That decision might depress his close cohorts such as Akila Viraj Kariyawasam, Sagala Ratnayake and Vajira Abeywardana, but politics is a cruel enterprise in which one has to make hard and ruthless decisions.

Ranil may have succeeded in stabilizing the country’s free falling economy. He may have applied some breaks to that free fall. Nevertheless, the fall does not seem to have halted. The acceleration of the fall is certainly slowed down. But the hardships undergone by the rural villager, both in the South and North, has not been checked at all. Ranil’s retirement, of course, would be a bit of sweet news to all those who have expressed their total departure from the status quo.

*The writer can be contacted at vishwamithra1984@gmail.com