3 March, 2024

Blog

Ranil’s Last Hurrah For A New Parliament In March

By Rajan Philips

Rajan Philips

President Wickremesinghe has now made repeated assurances that the presidential and parliamentary elections will be held in 2024. Financial allocations for the two elections were also announced in parliament. Parliamentary elections are expected to come first, apparently in March 2024, according to news reports citing sources close to the President. Let us assume that the sources are correct and start the political countdown before the official call is made early in the new year. It is going to be a 100-day countdown.

A parliamentary election in March will be the first parliamentary election to be held before the presidential election since the twosome began their co-existence in 1982. In that year of disgrace, President Jayewardene conducted and won the country’s first presidential election, calling the election before his first, appointed, term was over, courtesy of the Third Amendment to the Constitution. He then went on to cancel the parliamentary elections that were due that year by staging an undemocratic referendum and doubled the life of an old parliament.

President Wickremesinghe will be exercising the presidential power of dissolution to dissolve parliament and call for elections in March 2024, before they are due more than a year later in 2025. In 1982, President Jayewardene did not want to let go of the massive majority he had in the parliament elected in 1977. He kept it going through the referendum chicanery. No one wants this parliament to keep going except the Rajapaksa MPs. The prospect of its dissolution in March is as good as it can get in the circumstances.

So far, President Wickremesinghe has been refusing to use the power of dissolution – in order to delay elections. Not anymore, we hope. Now it makes sense for him to dissolve parliament and have parliamentary elections before the presidential election. If the presidential elections were to come first, Ranil Wickremesinghe would likely have faced two unwelcome choices: not to run as a candidate, or to run and lose. That will be the end of his presidency and he would be long gone by the time the next parliamentary elections are held, as they are due, in 2025.

By calling parliamentary elections in March, Mr. Wickremesinghe will have the opportunity and the power to first ‘preside’ over the election in whatever way he can, and then to appoint the Prime Minister and cabinet of Ministers from among the MPs of the newly elected parliament. Neither of which he would probably be able to do if the presidential elections were to go first. In the most likely situation of no single party winning by a clear majority in the next general elections, President Wickremesinghe will be well positioned to call the shots as he pleases, and all within his constitutional powers. But not quite every shot as he might please.

First, the President should not overplay his hand. For unlike in Thailand, it would be counterproductive to try to thwart the results of a popular parliamentary election through clever-by-half executive means. Second, he has a massive trust-deficit with practically every political party in parliament other than an insufficient number of Ministers and MPs who would like to see him continue as President for their own self-serving ends. It will all depend on how the President conducts himself during the parliamentary election.

If he were to take sides or take to machinating between MPs and Parties to forge a new alliance for the election, he had better make sure that such an alliance would be a winning alliance. Otherwise, and that is more likely to be the case, he would be a goner by the time his (really Gota’s) term is up. On the other hand, if he were to exercise enlightened selfishness and stay above the electoral fray, he may have a chance to form a consensus government in the new parliament and take yet another shot at extending his political life. But that will be quite a long shot even for a man who is known for playing the long game.

The revelations that TNA MP Sumanthiran recently made in parliament, about the manner in which Ranil Wickremesinghe broke opposition consensus and broke ranks to become Gotabaya’s crisis Prime Minister, are quite damaging. Add to that, President Wickremesinghe’s recent shenanigans with the Judiciary, the Constitutional Council, and with the appointment of the IGP, have left him thoroughly discredited and untrustworthy. Adding injury to insult, he has appointed the universally ridiculed and reviled Deshabandu Tennakoon as the new IGP for a three month term. The upshot of all of this is that no one contesting the next parliamentary election would like to have anything to do with President Wickremesinghe. Other than the irrationally selfish.

Framing the Elections

At the same time, there is no shortage of irrationality or selfishness in Sri Lankan politics, and going by Mr. Wickremesinghe’s long past, he is not going to remain quiet or neutral as President in the next parliamentary election. He may even pull up the abolition card and play it one more time and tack a referendum question on abolition to the vote at the parliamentary election. Whatever Ranil Wickremesinghe may or may not do, the elections should not be about Ranil Wickremesinghe, and he should not be allowed to frame the election.

The elections should be about the possibilities and the potentialities for a Sri Lanka that is finally becoming free from two decades of Rajapaksa-Wickremesinghe political monopoly. The elections will also be about how Sri Lanka is going to be led out of the economic pits by those now vying for power. Then there are carryovers all the way from the twentieth century which have not been addressed but only aggravated during the Rajapaksa yugaya of this century. The election will be framed by the dialectic of the contenders for power and/or parliamentary seats, and their positions on the manifold issues and problems that are preoccupying the people.

The SJB and the NPP have been calling for elections for almost two years and now they will get their chance to show what they are capable of. The remnants and rumps of the historically governing parties – the UNP, the SLFP and the SLPP will not have any significant identity of their own, but they may not all go into alliances with either the SJB or the NPP. Also, in a parliamentary election there is space for political parties and individuals to enter into multiple alliances.

It will be interesting to see who will be allying with the SJB, and if any of the recognized political parties will be joining the NPP/JVP formation. Any of the Sinhalese parties who are not part of either the SJB or NPP alliances, will not likely be significant players in the election, but may gain specific weights after the election as contributors to a governing majority in return for ministerial portfolios. If it were the first-past-the-post system, the Rajapaksas would probably be wiped off the electoral slate, but some of them could still manage to return because of proportional representation and preferential voting.

The political parties of the Sri Lankan Tamils, Muslims and the Indian Tamils will have their respective, and in some cases overlapping, universes, with their corresponding national overtones. The TNA will likely have to go through a leadership change before the election which may create internal rivalries even as it tries to ward off external rivals especially in the Northern Province. In the East, Sri Lankan plurality will be electorally reproduced with proportionate returns of Tamil, Sinhalese and Muslim MPs.

Political parties of the Indian Tamils, as well as Muslim political parties, have usually joined one or the other of the two main contending alliances. Where they will land this time remains to be seen. Some are with the SJB, while those who are with the current ‘government’ of President Wickremesinghe may have to find new suitors if they are to be relevant after the elections.

Again, it will be interesting to see if the JVP would be able to attract and accommodate any of the minority political parties under its NPP umbrella. It is known that the JVP and especially its leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake have excellent working relationship with many of the Tamil, Muslim and Indian Tamil political leaders, but whether the JVP would be able to draw them into a formal alliance is one of the crucial questions that will be answered during the countdown period.

Even a broadened NPP alliance will not be broad enough if it fails to include one or more of the minority political parties. On the other hand, an NPP alliance that includes minority political parties would send a powerful signal that the JVP/NPP has come of age electorally. Anything less would only mean that the JVP continues to immature in spite of age.

The arresting backdrop to the election campaign is the economic crisis. President Wickremesinghe presented his budget on November 13, outlining his purported plan to take Sri Lanka out of the economic crisis. The very next day, the Supreme Court came down with its ruling on the fundamental rights applications against decision makers in the Gotabaya Rajapaksa Administration. The Court apportioned blame for decisions made wrongfully by elected and unelected officials that precipitated Sri Lanka’s worst and its only “man-made” economic crisis.

The voters deserve to know where the SJB, the NPP and everyone else running for election stand on the economy – the current crisis, its perpetrators, and a plausible way out. The upcoming election will also provide a new opportunity for the Catholic Church hierarchy to reiterate the yet unanswered questions about the perpetrators of the 2019 Easter Sunday tragedy. There are shortages of all kinds in Sri Lanka. But there is no shortage of election issues.

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Latest comments

  • 13
    2

    Under no circumstances will the SLFP be with anybody else or alone but under the Slap Party shadow. The New King is the worst backbone-less crook among all those who came to power in Langkam, even many worlds below Dudley. He ran out of SLFP fearing when the White Flag Murder investigation comes, he would be surreptitiously given out to West by Old Rowdy King in order to King save himself. Thanks to Chandrika, she saved the New King, recruiting him as her as the CC. Then came US State secretary, John Kerry, who saved War Criminal/ Genocide Criminals who were listed in the September 2014, UNHRC report, (as per Lemon Puff Weeraya, 42 of them.) Then the New King saved the Old Rowdies from the UNP, by dismissing any cases UNP wanted to bring to straighten the corruption of that time. Kegalle Jayamanne was murdered. Dilrukshi was fired from the Bribery Commission. In return cases against her were filed. So, in the 2019 election, Old Rowdy took the New King under him one more time and made the New King serve him. Then, when Evil Became the New Emperor, that boneless clown went under Evil and serving Evil’s wishes to become real. This is telling that in the next election, he will come under Slap Party again without much fuss.

  • 12
    2

    Old Rowdy has two choices. 1). Join UNP-SLFP colleagues or 2). lose election to Anura or Valaiththodam Jr and thus lose diplomatic immunity and face the Genocide Crime/War Crime and the Economic crime. On the other side, Evil is ever ready to sleep even with a dog, full of ticks, to hold on to his position, which he dreamt of from the time uncle took him into parliament. So, there is no reason to think why the current team of High Horas will not be together in the coming election.

    It is unlikely that Muslim Parties will get a great welcome in the UNP-SLFP-Slap Party Union. That union must go to the Sinhala Only Union and true anti-Minority coalition to win any votes even from Sinhala Buddhists; there is no talk about Tamils’ or Muslims’ votes for this gang anymore. If Valaiththodam Jr can show, before the election, that he can form a government, then he gets the Muslim Parties. That is just a no-brainer solution. Everybody knows that is how it is. But there are too many “ifs and buts” that exist.

  • 10
    1

    Rishard thinks that there is no chance of Hitler coming back again. So, he plans to sue that Gothapayal. One time earlier, Rishard was in Hitler’s Heli and directing the rowdies against a Mannar, Tamil Judge. Rowdy Old King took the leash of that case & harnessed Rishard to pull his cart. At that time Rishard was under his control, but when Old Rowdy lost the election, Rishard did something nasty so Old Rowdy said Rishard had swindled even more lands than they managed to get. Come on man! This is what you call the Langkang’s Muslim-Sinhala governments’ interparty rivalry. Now the Evil Emperor has released Rishard from the jail on the Indian Origin, underaged, servant girl death case (there some Rishard’s relatives implicated in some sexual misconducts too.) In total, Rishard escaped in the Mannar Judge case by the Old King. He escaped from the servant girl death case, by Evil. Rishard got a new Low Degree, so he is threatening Hitler, he wants to sue Hitler. This means Rishard can really go against Old Rowdy, Evil and Hitler in the coming election.

  • 9
    1

    Evil broke the back of the SLMC. It is hard to say now, without a poll, where they are standing in an election. Hezbollah has the OIC in his hand. He is capable of standing alone in all power equations the Langkang politicians can invent for them for power brokering. But he is not even Muslims’ favorite in elections. If Hezbollah wins a seat he won’t remain as a burden to Hakeem but will say “I am over 18; I want to go on my way”, and he will follow the path of Nazeer. That is why Hakeem took him back to SLMC. Unless UNP=SLFP-Slap Party union feel desperate, it is unlikely they would give a membership to Hakeem and take him in. Hakeem is the thief to thieves, so it is unlikely they will take him in. Evil hates him. Old Rowdy hates him. Hitler would even have White Van him if Hit-ler got another chance. Valaiththodam has no option but to nurse Hakeem for some more time, until things take a different perspective. He has some anti-UNP (or anti- Evil Emperor) campaigners. But there are not many strong Anti-SLFP-Slap Party campaigners. Almost all his cannons are bent towards Rowdy Royas. Valaiththodam may get India’s blessing. India is utterly fed-up with the “UNP-SLFP-Slap Party” rascals. No known West, China, Russia, or Japan animosity.

  • 11
    1

    Anura may no longer receive Western’s rigid opposition. LTTE is still banned world over, thanks to the powerful multimillion dollar “UNP-SLFP-Slap Party’s” anti-Tamil campaign, continuously; but West is ready to approve JVP’s government in Langkang. China & Russia will have a very cozy relationship with him. He can count on China to help. If he can manage to keep all the goodies now Evil is getting from the West, IMF, WB….…. then he can run an easy government. Most of his advantages appear to be for only after he wins the election. But to win the election, NPP has to play its solo concert.
    Evil has completely cremated TNA, even without any born ashes, with his “Secret Solution”. They don’t have any relationship with the West, India, China, Japan, or Arabs………There is no use of talking about TNA any more.

  • 9
    2

    Selfish is too good to describe this failed man. More he wait for the election and his defeat become enormous. Spending most possible period in luxury and grandeur using public money is his purpose of living. He does not care any more of the country he pilfer for long time with his mate Mahinda and his family.
    Next government will make them accountable for their treason against public property.
    “Until water boils the crab plays on”

    • 2
      2

      J
      Failed man?
      He achieved his longtime ambition!

  • 9
    0

    “President Wickremesinghe will be exercising the presidential power of dissolution to dissolve parliament and call for elections in March 2024, before they are due more than a year later in 2025.”
    .
    I think perhaps it’s time for us to set more stringent days to hold elections, like that in the case of presidential elections in the US.
    .
    Otherwise it leaves room for the executive to unduly manipulate the process to take political advantage.
    .
    In this instance opinion polls show the favourability of AKD of JVP/NPP winning if a presidential election is held right now is quite high. If it were to happen NPP could translate this victory to achieve a better outcome for them in a subsequent general election.
    .
    By holding the general elections first, one could still find some room (especially so under a proportional representation) to consolidate power and even form a government by an alliance of parties. It isn’t necessary for any of the parties in such an alliance to have won the most seats from the election as a single party. This alliance then could determine or would have an impact who the victor of a subsequent presidential elections.
    .
    All this could be achieved by manipulating election dates, which I feel undermines the democratic process.

    • 11
      2

      Dear Ruchira,
      .
      You’re spot on about the desirability of fixed dates for elections as in the USA.
      .
      It may occasionally seem desirable to have elections early; but what we saw in the case of the Local Government Elections scheduled for the 9th of June 2023, was something that is almost unique.
      .
      Well, (sigh!) we have a reputation to safeguard: “A Country like no other.”

      • 4
        0

        Dear Panini,
        .
        Despite everything that has happened we continue to live to uphold that reputation!
        .
        Cheers!

        • 1
          0

          Thanks – and I make mistakes.
          .
          How did I bring myself to say, “the Local Government Elections scheduled for the 9th of June 2023″?
          .
          It was not June – it was March 2023
          .
          Panini

          • 1
            0

            Oh, I didn’t even notice, details like I said b4 escape my mind. Hope you are doing well otherwise!

    • 8
      1

      Ruchira – If the next Presidential election is held before the next general election, and (given the current results of opinion polls) the NPP candidate will probably win, but there’s no guarantee that the preceding presidential win will help NPP win more seats in a general election a year later to form an NPP government.

      Whether Ranil W. strategically holds the general election first, or the NPP camp strategically wishes for the presidential election to be held prior to the general election, both camps are essentially strategizing for its own win. There’s nothing undemocratic about it as long as the election frequencies per the law are followed (noting that a general election can be called before the 5 year term ends). In fact, wasn’t SJB calling for a general election in 2022 with their win in mind?

      Perhaps striving for an executive presidency that is independent of party politics makes more sense. Even better, abolish it.

      • 1
        2

        Sugandh, Little bit of less ambiguity imv could benefit everyone.

      • 1
        0

        How on earth can we know what’ll happen even tomorrow?
        .
        I suggest that we, who support the NPP, should focus on building support for the NPP, and stop speculating on how convincing or otherwise the results will be.
        .
        Usually, after elections there are “horse deals”. Let’s insist that the negotiations to form a government are more decent and ethical than that.
        .
        But let’s face that problem when we come to it, not NOW.
        .
        Panini Edirisinhe

      • 4
        5

        ” There’s nothing undemocratic about it as long as the election frequencies per the law are followed (noting that a general election can be called before the 5 year term ends).
        “Wow!
        Are we not among people who not long ago questioned if RW became president democratically?
        For democracy’s sake, let us leave it out of RW’s sums.
        His hopes for re-election would decide when any election will be held. Now that the hope deems to be fading fast, he is toying with having the parliamentary election first.
        There are no two (three, four, five or any such number of) camps in this business.
        There is only one issue: is RW playing games with all elections?
        I think that he has been from the day he was elected President by the House.
        Here we have a man who could not find funds for local government election.
        Should they not be held in time? They will not be, as they may send the ‘wrong signals’ to the voters as they did last time.
        *
        I wonder what makes advocates of ‘morality’ suddenly transmute into advocates of ‘legality’?
        *
        It is a waste of time trying to persuade RW on these matters.
        He has made monkeys of all his opponents inside parliament who tried any such thing.
        The boy who has the ball decides the rules of the game.

        • 9
          4

          What “wow”? Yet, another slew of asinine assumptions.

          RW’s presidency is neither illegal nor undemocratic. He was appointed by an ELECTED GOVERNMENT that holds a majority in the parliament. RW’s appointment was lawful and in accordance with the constitution.

          The electorate should have had the morality to foster ethics in politics and should have had the morality and resolve to elect the better of the candidates at elections.

          The electorate that overwhelmingly voted in Gotabaya Rajapaksa and the Pohottuwa wasn’t concerned with morality ——— They earned themselves this predicament and should not be judging RW on morality.

          • 3
            4

            Assumptions?
            Have we not seen the heap of comments here on RW becoming president?
            *
            There is no greater help than bad memory in times of desperation.

            • 4
              2

              Yes, SJ — That opinion still prevails amongst many but it was never mine.

              • 2
                2

                Never.
                That is remarkable.

      • 6
        2

        Sugandh,
        “but there’s no guarantee that the preceding presidential win will help NPP win more seats in a general election a year later “
        It took Gota just two years for Gota to go from hero to zero. A JVP presidency might not take that long.

        • 5
          1

          Exactly, OC!

        • 8
          0

          oc
          Life offers no iron fist guarantees.
          But GR was a cardboard hero, a fake, built up to serve exigencies of the need of a clan to keep it in the family.

      • 4
        0

        Strategically, my thinking is, RW would call for Presidential Election (PE), within months close to end of Term of EP, (November/December 24) if the GE results are very favourable!! And immediately after conclusion of the GE, if the outcome of GE Favours his supporters and parties in his coalition to cash in the TIDE!!!
        Fixation, without enabling any movement is GOOD!!!??? BEWARE OF DONALD TRUMP SYNDROME!!!??? We had one MaRa, “Apache”, The Messiah, that’s more than GOOD ENOUGH!!!??? NONE OF IT ANYMORE!

        • 2
          3

          M
          Your guess is as good as any other’s.
          When truth is so evasive, guesswork is the most entertaining option.

    • 2
      3

      R
      “perhaps it’s time for us to set more stringent days to hold elections”
      I would say that it is time that we ditched the entire scheme of organized mass deception.

  • 5
    5

    In March 2024 the country can see whether it is the Last Hurrah for Ranil Wickremasinghe or for these Critics of Ranil Wickremasinghe who writes reams against him?

    • 15
      2

      Gamini,

      No offence, Buddy ……. but please please tell us what predictions/pronouncements you have made previously about Ranil have come to pass/true?

      The day ye mind stops hallucinating …….. you will come to realize that the fault is with not others but yourself: the last person you’ll look first …… for faults!



      For sure, Ranil is more important than the country, eh?

      Is it any wonder ……. the country is in such a mess?

      It’s never about the country or the citizens ……. but always about the politicians ……. and their survival …….. by whatever means.

      • 6
        4

        nimal fernando

        “It’s never about the country or the citizens ……. but always about the politicians ……. and their survival …….. by whatever means.”

        “by whatever means”

        You are right,
        Disenfranchising 800000 people, Sinhala only language policies, destroying genuine local cooperative moment, politicising bureaucracy and state, turning a blind eye to crooks, rioters, war criminals, … allowing religious nutters to have all sorts of comfort and have a big say in the running of the state, concentrating state power and under the a***s of a few crooks, impunity, impunity …. supplying arms ammunitions, political cover, funds to terrorists, through psychopaths enforcing election boycott a section of the people, freedom to steal from state coffer, a known war criminal was elected as president for a short while, …………………

        So who is going to restore democratic rights of the people in this island?
        Perhaps Modi, Xi, Netanyahu, Putin, Sunak, Biden, Kim Jong Un, AI generated VP….. or SJ according to his little red book.

        Here is something you should watch:
        https://www.aljazeera.com/program/talk-to-al-jazeera/2023/12/1/brazils-lula-biden-has-no-sensitivity-to-stop-war-on-gaza

    • 8
      14

      Gamini, Leela ,Vedda and Codger , comedians who choose names of their enemy tribes ! (either Sinhala or British names/references !- ( either you admire them or are deceitful , or perhaps both)

      Wish the four of you a very hopeful and gay 2024 ! (( you will wait like for godot!)

      • 11
        6

        deepthi the desperate silva.

        “Wish the four of you a very hopeful and gay 2024 ! “

        Well crocodiles can and do shed tears.

        • 8
          5

          NV,

          We shed 70 year old lady a packet of Punnsku. She or the like would never see it right. I m compelled to think Bandarawela man would fit better to swollen DS My reliable sources said DS made efforts to fish an English man, unfortunately malicious ones have no chance in her 😕 neighbourhood.

          • 7
            5

            “We should send 70 year old lady a packet of Punnsku. ” ASAP

    • 2
      3

      Gamini the ever-faithful supporter, crawls out of the woodwork whenever his hero is in the saddle. I am sure he still believes in the tooth fairy – no pun intended.

    • 4
      2

      G
      It is 50-50 as the thumbs show right now.

      • 5
        0

        SJ,
        “It is 50-50 as the thumbs show right now”
        May I have to remind you that is a COLLECTION OF BAD WORDS AND ABHORENT TO DEMOCRACY IN SRI LANKA!!!
        50-50 HANDS OVER THE MANTLE TO MINORITIES TO RULE THE ROOST!!!!???
        Very Bad and truly badly timed pronouncement!!!???
        Reminds me of the late 1940’s, spluttered out by an erudite and wiseman of the minorities’ Clarion Call to unify to neutralise possible Majoritarian, unilateral coercion and subjugating Minorities after Independence!!!???
        Plenty of assurances provided as such events are or would be only “BAD DREAMS”!!!???
        “75 YEAR HISTORY IS REPLETE WITH RECORDINGS OF EVENTS TO THE CONTRARY TOWARDS ALL MINORITIES!!!???”

        • 3
          3

          I think that you are reading too much into my 50-50 comment.
          The reference was to the 5 up and 5 down for G’s comment.
          History has long forgotten the 50-50 of the 1940s.

          • 1
            0

            Rable Rousing, evidently Not my Forte!!!???

  • 12
    0

    Before the parliamentary election people need confirmation that any one contesting in a political party cannot move to other political party and if he/she wants to move to another party he/she should resign from his post and contest under the party he/she wants to move. Further he/she should not be made as a minister for an year. In other words, people need to confirm that the candidate they elect should be belong to the people those who elect him/her and the political party he/she elect him/her.

    • 3
      4

      ” people need confirmation”
      Does the constitution or law provide it?
      Even to provide such, one has to elect a government from among weathercocks.

      • 4
        0

        People can try to elect a government avoiding these weathercocks. It is possible!

        • 3
          4

          Tell it to the mice that wanted to bell the cat.
          They were faster learners I would say.

    • 4
      0

      And all their wealth and Bank balances could/should not gain more than SL Rs 10,000 years until the end of the next 5 years!!!??? Auditor general certification necessary of the Wealth statement at time of election, time of Cross-over and 5 years after cross-over takes place!?

  • 5
    0

    Rajan Philips, You say prez. will call for elections in March 2024. We see no signs of it happening.

    • 7
      0

      IMF’s next tranche is due soon. So he said he has solution for Tamils too. But last week alone three people died in government legal custody: Jaffna- Bati- Amparai. Evil’s administration is refusing this legal matter’s to Tamils hand so at least we can prevent these deaths on Rapist Police’s custody.

    • 4
      0

      dtg
      “We see no signs of it happening.”
      That may be our only hope, as many things that showed signs did not happen.

  • 12
    0

    Trusting Ranil’s words is the last thing any Sri Lankan should consider. Every time Ranil had the power he has never delivered his promises. Most importantly catching crooks, investigating the Easter Attack, bringing stolen money back, protecting Aragalaya, etc. All that Ranil does is to promise but his promises never get delivered or come to pass. Similarly/ these election promises will also have to be taken with a grain of salt.

  • 6
    2

    Taking the “Promise” by Ranil W to hold elections in 2024, with a “pinch of salt”, as said by “Buddhist1”, I would like to give my opinion on this “Election Year of 2024”:

    1. Ranil W, as the President can decide to hold the election and what should it be, whether it is (a) Parliamentary or (b) Presidential in 2024. In the case of the presidential Election, it is Mandatory to hold it before October 17th, 2024. In the case of a “Parliamentary Election”, the President has the option to dissolve the Parliament at any time and hold elections, while he remains the President till October 17th, 2024.

    2. Presently, the “Mood” of the SLPP (Pohottuwa) and President is to hold first the Parliamentary Election, as both “Believe” it would be advantageous to them because they expect the result to be “No Winner” that can score a “Majority”. This idea is presently planted in a campaign by the “Intellectuals” (Analysts”) in favor of the ruling class, through electronic and social media.

    3. If no “Majority” winner, the President will have the “Choice” of calling the party that can form a Government, “In His Opinion” and a UNP/SLPP/Dissidents (inclusive of Dallas group & SJB) and Minority party coalition would get that opportunity.

    4. Most favoured, as described above, would be a Parliamentary Election with Ranil W as President.

  • 8
    1

    II: It is worth noting that the “Election Drama” has changed completely, in that, “IF” any election is held in 2024 in its entirety, it would be a “Different Drama” compared to all other previous elections.

    Most of the SLPP (Pohottuwa) MPs would be defeated along with any others who opt to join them. The next to suffer a defeat would be SJB (Sajiths) without being able to get a majority to form a Government. The people are now aware that SJB would never take either Ranil W or Rajapakses to task for the economic “Crimes” committed and move towards “Recovery” of the loot.

    Please see whether you can get the link – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5SgVAls2gl

    If not, try Google and type Ratata Hetak channel – a comprehensive survey done related to a Parliamentary Election in 2024.

    The forecast in this survey: NPP- 113; SJB -65; SLPP/UNP – 24 and others 23 seats.

  • 0
    0

    Part I

    The author is congratulated for his style of writing. The main item of his article is linked to the possibility of a parliamentary election being held in March 2024. All these politicians have their merits and weaknesses, even terrible ones that can earn a term in the state hostel. It is a part of Sri Lankan history that RSW was the only person availed to take over the controls of the country when nobody really wanted to take such responsibility in the hour of need.

    The overall performance can be summarized by the trend in devaluation of our local monetary currency since independence, caused by heavy imbalance in external trade against Sri Lanka except for periods in which imports were suppressed and therefore any surplus for Sri Lanka is artificially manipulated. It is interesting to note that for some reason or the other, local government elections and provincial council elections are virtually postponed indefinitely. With a record of not holding elections, what is the real reason to hold such elections in March, when in any case according to the author the incumbent president is billed to leave office whether he contests the next presidential elections or not?

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    Part II
    The author foresees that in holding an early parliamentary election, RSW will have a chance of calling the shots to a greater extent. But for how long? It is until the remainder of his term. If he were to hold the elections, then the reason has nothing to do with presidential control. The country runs because of its bilateral and international benefactors. Is it wise on part of benefactors to continue to give “aid” to Sri Lanka only to find a set of persons who do not value them take over at a later stage? Hence it is not a surprise for them to require the Government of Sri Lanka to provide evidence on the popular stand? In terms of geo-politics, will the government policy continue to be bent towards Indo-western nations or will it have a Chinese tilt after the elections held at whatever point? If unofficial surveys indicate a change, then they would prefer the change to take place early so that financial assistance could be suspended early. The worst fear is the election of “youngsters”, not familiar with diplomacy believing in the Sri Lankan version of the North Korean “Juche” principle.

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