By Jehan Perera –

Jehan Perera

In his opening campaign speech in Tangalle for the parliamentary elections which are scheduled to take place on November 14, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake said he was aware that prior to the elections there were warnings from both national and international entities that the country faced a setback if the government were to change, that there would be shortages of goods, that the dollar would soar and that relations with international agencies would be put into question. But none of these has transpired, and instead the government has been dealing professionally with its international partners.

The president also stressed that the government would be pressing ahead with the corruption cases of the past. He made it clear that the present slow pace is not due to any wish to stage a cover up as appears to have occurred with all previous governments. The courts have already taken up the case of the purchase of Greek bonds that soon lost their value and impoverished the country. President Dissanayake also said that 400 files of corruption cases had been put aside or were not followed up but they would all be looked into now. The applause of the crowd that followed this announcement came out of a different sentiment than at an event in Colombo where the Institute of Chartered Accountants held their annual conference.

At this event, three former presidents spoke on their experiences of governance. In fact, one of the former presidents went so far as to say that politicians could not act in a corrupt way if they were not supported by the bureaucrats. There is no doubt that the country became bankrupt due to widespread corruption in the form of money put into bank accounts or into private pockets. The collapse of the economy also occurred because successive governments made very bad investment decisions, gave tax breaks, land leases and other concessions to some which enriched a few and impoverished the country. This too was corruption. The applause made it clear how corruption has entrenched itself in politics at every level. It also made clear why the people decided to elect a new president.

Strengthening Credibility 

The NPP’s rapid rise to power came with high public expectations, especially regarding quick solutions to economic hardships. The gap between these expectations and the government’s actual performance has led to expressions of disappointment among various sectors of society which are reflected in the media. The government has said that it will revisit its international agreements. Some of these may involve corrupt practices that have unfavourable terms to the country. Despite campaign promises to tackle corruption, there is a feeling that the government has not taken strong enough action to hold previous corrupt officials accountable or prevent ongoing corruption in public institutions.

The government is being strategic in facing the parliamentary elections. It is proceeding cautiously and not making any oversharp turns that could capsize the ship of state that it has just taken command over. The indicators are that the government’s first month in power has been a positive experience to most of the population. Even those who had reservations about an NPP victory due to their Marxist antecedents have been reassured by the non-violent and democratic transition of power.

The appointment of university academic Dr Harini Amarasuriya as prime minister has been a decision of the government that has come in for widespread commendation. Prior to her rise in party politics, the prime minister was a respected academic with connections throughout the national university system and with civil society organisations as well. She has been both a political and civic activist in strengthening democratic governance in Sri Lanka. She has worked with CSOs that aim to hold the government accountable, promote transparency, and engage citizens in decision-making processes. In addition, she has been an advocate for human rights, especially in areas concerning women, marginalized communities, and workers. The government has now announced that she will continue to be prime minister after the parliamentary elections which further strengthens its credibility.

Strong Government 

In his campaign speech in Matara, President Dissanayake asked for an electoral mandate for the establishment of a strong government that could deliver on the pledges in the party manifesto. At the presidential elections he obtained just over 42 percent of the popular vote which was a remarkable increase over the three percent he secured at the last presidential election in 2019, but still fell short of the 50 percent margin that all previous presidents had been elected with. If this margin of victory is extrapolated to the parliamentary election, the NPP will be the single largest party in parliament, but it will not have an absolute majority which would mean it will require the support of other parties to pass laws.

Most of the people are looking for change in governance practices and see the NPP as providing the best likelihood of this. This may lead to those who did not vote for the president at the presidential election to vote for the NPP at the parliamentary election. Therefore, the NPP is likely to be able to secure considerably more votes than the 42 percent at the presidential election. Dealing effectively with corruption would require changes to the anti- corruption laws (such as strengthening the Commission to Investigate Bribery and Corruption) for which opposition parties, with compromised members in them, may not wish to provide their support. The diminished attraction of the opposition parties due to the infighting and failure to tackle the problem of corruption in their ranks opens up the prospect of a majority in parliament for the NPP.

On the other hand, obtaining a 2/3 majority in parliament which would enable constitutional change by the NPP acting on its own is likely to be beyond reach due to the workings of the proportional system of electoral representation. In any event, constitutional reform undertaken by one party acting on its own, as occurred in Sri Lanka in 1972 and 1978 and which yielded non-consensual constitutions, is not an attractive prospect. The ideal scenario would be one in which the NPP obtains the support of the ethnic and religious minority parties, in particular from the north and east, for this purpose. SJB leader Sajith Premadasa has already offered to cooperate with the government in the national interest. Fundamental reform that is inclusive could make the ideal a reality.