10 December, 2018

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This Is A Sloppy But De Facto Dictatorship

By Kumar David

Prof. Kumar David

The proto-fascist rouge-regime is floundering trying to consolidate itself; This is a sloppy but de facto dictatorship

Much ink has flowed discussing recent events and much moral judgement offered; another such piece is redundant. My focus today is on the next stage. By way of preface I first put down a few facts on paper. Love him or hate him, Ranil was removed from office unconstitutionally; Mahinda’s appointment is illegal; parliament was prorogued in bad faith and dissolved unconstitutionally; twice it was disrupted aggressively; pro-Rajapaksa MPs walk out as they cannot secure a majority; Sirisena declares he will not reinstate Ranil or appoint SF as PM, whatever parliament determines thus trashing the constitution and implicitly admitting that Mahinda lacks a majority. Manifestly Sri Lanka needs a new constitution drafted to be idiot-proof and with the executive presidency abolished.

Sirisena and Rajapaksa are manipulating state and government illegally, unconstitutionally, unethically and immorally. In private their MPs don’t deny it, saying: “We don’t care, we want power; we won’t give up power”. Isn’t this what dictatorship means? True they haven’t consolidated power yet, they have more bridges to cross, and it is still possible to stop the proto-fascists and defeat the rogue-state. I use the prefix ‘proto’ to mean emergent or early-stage, and rogue in rogue-regime well let the facts speak for themselves. The proto-fascists are a mob of MPs and inner circle storm troopers. The rogue-state is an alliance of a desperate President with a self-styled Prime Minister and a mock Cabinet. Together they have grabbed control of state and government

My focus in on four concerns: Reaction to the Courts’ impending rulings, election prospects, impeachment and finally what may happen if the threat of evicting Rajapaksa and his rogue-Cabinet becomes imminent. I hold different views and have a different assessment of prospects from my liberal friends. Yes sure, we are on the same side of the political divide, sure we abhor scoundrels, but we assess trends differently. We both opposed Pinochet, Trump’s despoliation, the alt-right in Europe and so on, but they, the liberals, were hopeless at foreseeing what was coming and woke up after the flood. Marxists think they are endowed with better foresight (sic!) and draw strength from Trotsky’s warnings on inter-war European fascism. Disaster would strike, he warned, unless Stalinists, socialists and moderates changed course; which of course they did not, except for an unwashed cigar chomping whisky guzzling bowler hatted old fogey in London. 

Let’s go step by step. It is likely there will be parliamentary elections within months; both Ranil and Mahinda know that. The tussle now is who will head the caretaker government in the election period. Sirisena will remain head of state and abuse every privilege of office, but if the rogue-regime retains control of both government and state, the proto-fascists will enter the electoral arena at considerable advantage. This is pivotal as this promises to be the most corrupt, rigged and vicious election in Lanka’s history. The Prime Minister’s Office has already been turned into a SLPP election agency by Namal. The fracas now is about whether Ranil or Mahinda will head the interim caretaker government; it’s only about that, it’s not about governing.

If the rogue-regime remains in office during the elections, I will not retain faith in the impartiality of the Elections Commission two of whose members (not Professor Ratnajeevan Hoole) have been shown-up as men of straw. I think the police force and senior officers wish to remain impartial, but if showered with improper orders from higher up, what to do? I do not want to be IGP now for a million dollars. If I defy illegal orders I’ll be fired – will Ranil feed my wife and children? Execute monstrous instructions and you will spit on me! The point is that the elections will be skewed in favour of the proto-fascists if the rogue-regime retains control of both caretaker government and executive presidency.

And what about the Courts? They were despoiled at the time of Sarath N Silva; I don’t know if they have recovered. Despite the sterling qualities of Sripavan and Dep, and the so-far-so-good current CJ, a threat comes from a different direction. Let us assume that the judgements are flawless but what is there to stop the proto-fascists from flouting them? We have seen how they treated Parliament and Speaker; who can expect such people to treat the Supreme and Appeal Courts with respect? My liberal friends place great store by the impending judgements and the next election where they expect a fed-up population to vote out the scoundrels. Sorry buddy, it’s not so simple; even if the Courts rule in your favour and even if you poll more votes, it’s not so easy. Most in Lanka know more about Micky Mouse than the methods used by Mussolini and his Black-Shirts to grab power. Those ignorant of history are fated to repeat its mistakes.

The conflict is complex and deep; ladies crafting lofty petitions and gentlemen at learned seminars are important, but impotent unless they take their campaign to the people; towns and villages, grassroots and trade unions. Now that’s another problem. Go out against Mahinda into the trade unions and you could get beaten up; a majority of the working class is with the racists. Sad but true. These are not the days of NM, Colvin, Pieter and Dr Wicks; this is the day of the jackal. Mahinda, like Trump, has rallied a mass base; lower lifeforms in SLPP, SLFP and Dead-Left defecate in public.

Lanka is saturated with racism. The civil-war aggravated it but the roots of identity politics go deeper – I have to devote a column to this sometime. The point is, though recent events have exposed the proto-fascists as a monstrous antithesis of democracy will the Sinhalese masses turn away from the pent-up emotions of race politics? To put it simply, who will win the elections; victorious-in-war-against-Tamils racists howling “The country is being sold to the Tamils again”, or effete liberals peddling a manifestly failed economic programme? The answer my friend is blowing in the wind.

Parliament, Speaker and Court-verdicts will be manipulated. Proto-fascism will not and cannot retreat; a Rubicon has been crossed, there is no going back. Is the penalty for treason in Sri Lanka death? Wilful and repeated violation of the constitution surely is treason. One must not evoke alarm but this has gone beyond all limits. Such things have never happened before. 

In parliament, JVP leader Anura Kumar Dissanayake threatened Sirisena with impeachment on two counts: “Deliberate violation of the constitution, or mental infirmity”. Note that it can’t be both; if you are insane you cannot knowingly violate the constitution.  He also took aim at the UNP for failure in governance, failure to bring perpetrators of gross corruption to book and lack of transparency about “deals”. Impeachment is very unlikely; Mahinda was stabbed in the back and Ranil knifed in the front. But one needs to be ambidextrous to stab both at the same time and persuade the UNP and SLPP to join hands and secure the needed 2/3rds. This is unlikely, but you can’t put ambidexterity beyond the capabilities a “mentally infirm” person.

My final bit of crystal-ball gazing pertains to “What if the proto-fascists cum rogue-state are cornered into imminent defeat?” If the Courts hold that dissolution is ok and that the no-confidence motions can be ignored, that’s another story; I will have to write more columns. What is important is to explore the opposite: What if the Courts rule that it was wrong to dissolve parliament, and that the kick in the butt (two kicks) meted out to Mahinda are binding? My liberal buddies expect Mahinda to bow out, the proto-fascists to withdraw and lick their wounds and Sirisena to weep in solitude over the shambolic of his ill-fated adventure. I am not so sure.

My Cassandra tormentor says the same. “They will find a way to subvert the Courts and fight tooth and nail to retain a grip on power”. If the rogue-state goes that far it will be a full-fledged naked dictatorship, and to contain public outrage it will need to use force. Poor sods, soldiers and brass! What will they do? Cringe before criminal orders and subdue the people, or say NO to the “mentally infirm”? The latter course, the rogue-state will call mutiny. I have my prophecy where this will all end; but let’s leave it at that for now.

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Latest comments

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    The man who proposed to merge with India in 2008 is talking of fascism and rogues, because what he wanted is fading away. What he wants is to get together with the neo con neo liberal cheats, to stuff the 20th down the throat of the peoples of this republic, so that he Kumar David could celebrate carving out the North and East in once piece to annex to Tamil Nadu.

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      That is absurd. I have known AKD for the past 50 years. Whatever else he may be, he has no such affiliations with foreign powers.

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    Professor Kumar David
    ~
    All in all, the governance of the country is currently in a real mess but they say every cloud has a silver lining. I view the current political crisis as having produced the following beneficial outcomes:
    ~
    1. Confirmation that Ranil had not only passed his ‘sell- by- date’ some time ago but would soon be taken off the shelf as well as being not fit for electoral consumption. I am pretty confident UNP will have a new leader some time after Ranil has been reinstated as PM. I expect UNP to have a new leader at the time of the next national poll, or even sooner.
    ~
    2. The true character of Sirisena has been exposed.
    ~
    3. Mahinda’s political fortunes were on the crest of a wave until he accepted the rogue premiership. Consequently, he has been politically wounded for being on the wrong side of the law (by aiding and abetting Sirisena flout the Constitution) and also for letting his own moral compass go haywire. This damaging behaviour by Mahinda certainly gives real hope to the emergence of another common candidate to beat him at the next national poll. I bet Mahinda must be kicking himself for not biding his time.

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    “The proto-fascist rouge-regime”
    A misspelling in “rouge-regime”. It is not rouge by any count.

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    The proto-fascists, if they cannot hang on to power that they have already grabbed, will resort to manipulate crowd psychology that may lead to riots of some kind:

    It may be against Tamils and Muslims.

    Fasten the seat belts for a rough ride in the near future.

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    Kumar David did not see the putsch in the RW-sack. Subsequent ‘happenings’ confirms the putsch, albeit deliberately avoiding force. Kumar David calls it ‘sloppy’. It is ‘neat’.
    Hurting ‘others’ is different to hurting ‘ourselves’.
    .
    Kumar feels that we may be stepping into ‘De Facto Dictatorship’ territory. We have had this form of governance for quite a while.
    .
    A putsch is also called a coup d’état. Kumar David does not want to use this term.
    .
    SLPP will use the language/religion-divide in election/s. This dope will mask the looming economic problems.

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    Whatever said or happens, it is clear that depending on the judgement by the SC on 7th December 2018 is going to set the process for governance in SL.
    The decline of the fortunes of the rural communities and the fact that privatisation of health care,motorised transport despite sops in the guise of reductions in fuel pricing etc. is not going to help bring down increase in price with regard to essential food items,house rents drinking water, electricity tariff school uniform, medical care etc.etc.
    Racism, religious intolerance and blaming the minorities as scapegoats for inefficiency, unaccountability and mismanagement, is a ruse for any depth the Sira MaRa gang won’t go to demonise, divide, and confuse people irrespective of race,religion,class uniting.

    The Sira MaRa enemy of the people will not hesitate in destroying the progressive pro democracy segments in Lankan society from uniting in solidarity.
    Vigilance is the need of the hour as there is a larger swathe of the general public who can understand things are not as they should be. We have to be awake, as there is far too muck at stake to give up now in this final hour of democracy for us.

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    TThe unwashed whiskey guzzling, cigar chomping, bowler hatted old fogey was set up by the globalists who wanted to use him to stop the rise of a power they hated, the nationalist, blood and soil German people who initially wanted nothing other than to assert their right to be free. The globalists knew that by pressuring the Fuehrer of the Germans they can get the German people to eventually do crazy things, which they did, thus unleashing misery of unmeasurable magnitude. But the fact it, the globalist of that time were the manipulators, and they brought the misery on different peoples. Today is no different. Lanka needs a strong leader, and there is just one man who can do it. Its not Mahendra, his time is over, but Gotabya can still take Lanka from the current miasma to the magic of a functioning capitalist state where people can still be free while enjoying the benefits of a proper governance structure. Sure, there will be some collateral damage, the Jihadi Muslims will have to be put in their place firmly, the national education and vocational training sector has to be revamped, clever and creative negotiations need to be conducted between Lanka and China, India and the West. But it can be done. Not by the cerebrally challenged, proven low IQ Sajit, not by the senile, low energy ADHP retard Ranil Wicks, not by the village idiot needing a thorough caning and discipline Namal, but only by one man who has proven his ability to develop and execute strategy, which is Gotabya.

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    We must make use of the moment to reach out to the people in the villages who are “brain washed” to think that all the minority groups – along lines of race, religion, name and place of birth(whatever we, in this dharmadweepaya can think of to divide us) have only one agenda – to gain control of power, land, jobs. We, the people of this country, revel in bringing out the worst in the other.
    We fail to see the contribution that this collection of varying entities with varying cultural and or religious backgrounds bring in to enrich the country. We must learn to be inclusive of everyone; respect for the other; understanding and tolerance for the other and love, compassion and understanding of the other is crucial. Take this moment when the citizenry in general is moaning, as it were, for a nation made to bleed by a set of silly, selfish, power hungry politicians. Take this moment to unite and stand up for the right, the truth, justice and fairplay. These columns and articles should be translated into Sinhala and Tamil.

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    Dear Prof Kum! You have dealt with almost everything under the sun excepting some basic realities. I am sure that you and of course my self supported the MY3 +RW combine in 2015. There were disputes in the marriage like most marriages of convenience. But the story of the assassination conspiracy, for which a sitting DIG is in remand, naturally makes the MY3 suffer from paranoia. He is trying to tie RW so that he is unable to exercise any authority. Mark my words prof! When there is no money voted even to pay salaries that would be the reason for a man in military fatigues to displace the politicians. Prof! think of Master Sergeant Samuel Doe of Liberia. Don’t forget! He will not waste his time with TRIALS. Tie the whole bunch into posts and open machine gun fire RAT-TAT-TAT.

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    Perhaps it’s time to acknowledge what Sri Lanka has become.
    *
    It’s a Corrupt, Lawless, Bankrupt Failed State.
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    It is run by people who only care about enriching themselves, their families and their cronies at the expense of the people of Sri Lanka.
    *
    Perhaps someone would explain why these people continue to be elected?

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    Dear UKCitizen,
    .
    You ask why these unsatisfactory people continue to be elected. I’m sorry, I cannot come up with some profound theory which explains it all. However, may I point out that some of the worst rogues in parliament have not got elected at all..
    .
    Among the worst is S.B Dissanayake. We all dislike him, I guess, but our memories are short. We cannot possibly keep in mind why we have this dislike of him. More importantly, he contested to enter parliament in August 2015 from the Nuwara-Eliya District. Results are still released in terms of the old electorates. S.B. Dissanayake came second even in his Hanguranketha electorate (Sinhalese majority area, but was appointed to Parliament.

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