By Lalith Dhammika Mendis –

Prologue

A famous quote ascribed to Mahatma Gandhi (MG) says, “Planet Earth has enough for everyone’s need but not enough for everyone’s greed. This quote highlights MG’s philosophy, which espouses environmental sustainability and responsible consumption, promoting moderation and avoiding avarice and materialism. In the vastness of the universe, planet Earth is minuscule, like a speck of dust. Humanity undeniably pales into insignificance.

The Industrial Revolution (IR) marked a significant milestone in environmental abuse resulting from human-induced activity. IR was followed by rapid urbanization, heightened deforestation, widespread large-scale and persistent chemical pollution, illegal dumping, and massive carbon emissions, causing huge environmental damage impacting human health. Man’s relentless pursuit of so-called modern development, technological advancement, and materialistic goals at the expense of dynamic ecological equilibrium brought him into confrontation with Mother Nature (MN). Global warming and climate change, a direct result of man’s confrontation with nature, pose the topmost existential threat faced by humanity today.

MN’s response to undesirable human activity has grown in intensity and ferocity over time. The last several decades have witnessed MN unleashing heatwaves, wildfires, flash floods, intense storms, cyclones, and massive precipitations which bring huge volumes of water within very short time periods, causing immeasurable damage to human lives, habitats, and belongings, in response to persistent environmental harm caused by human activity.

Cyclone Ditwah

The people of Sri Lanka (SL) living in many districts suffered colossal devastation and untold hardship when Cyclone Ditwah slammed with unprecedented brutal force. Ferocious precipitations and deluges that struck many parts of the country triggered massive floods and deadly landslides. Torrents of massive waterbodies ferociously gushing through hilly terrains, villages, and townships washed people, houses, buildings, infrastructure, and vehicles away. People are shellshocked, dismayed, and terrified. A multitude of ruthless landslides and earth slips whacked many areas, mercilessly burying scores of hapless ones alive. To date, many remain unaccounted for. Cyclone Ditwah left the shores of SL, leaving a gruesome trail of unimaginable destruction in its wake.

Scores of houses, buildings, public roads, railway tracks, commercial properties, and other vital infrastructure and public service facilities have suffered immeasurable damage, revealing horrifying scenes of monstrous destruction. It poses a gigantic challenge to the Government of Sri Lanka (GOSL)and its people on how to recover, restore, and rebuild what has been tragically lost.

Causes, History, Intensity, and Incidence of Landslides in Sri Lanka (SL)

Causes

Heavy rainfall is the major trigger of landslides. Planet Earth is experiencing global warming, as global temperature is on the rise. Global Warming (GW) causes extreme weather events such as short-duration intense rainfalls, which in turn trigger landslides and flash floods. One of the main causes of GW is deforestation. SL suffered deforestation during colonial rule. European Colonialists, such as the British, Dutch, and Portuguese, resorted to large-scale deforestation to plant commercial crops, including tea, rubber, and coffee. The British carried out massive deforestation to harvest timber for building ships for the Royal Navy.

Deforestation accompanies the loss of vegetation, ground cover, and herbaceous layer, making hilly terrains vulnerable to landslides during heavy downpours. Loss of ground cover reduces soil stability and leads to soil erosion. The loss of plants, trees, and vegetation leads to water saturation in soil and increases the waterlogged weight of the soil, triggering landslides during heavy downpours. Moreover, it causes soil erosion through rainwater run-offs. Loss of vegetation also results in soil porosity, causing the collection of water beneath ground level, which leads to weakening of soil cohesion and occasions landslides during intense precipitation. Rapid urbanization, unplanned development activities, the construction of houses and commercial infrastructure without adequate regard for geo-hazard considerations, and population growth have led to mountainous areas becoming increasingly vulnerable to landslides.

History, intensity, and incidence

The “Hazard Resilient Housing Construction Manual” published by the National Building Research Organisation (NBRO) reveals there were 178 landslides during the period from 1869 to 2003, which claimed over 455 lives.

The frequency and impact of landslides have dramatically increased since 2003. Those have resulted in devastating consequences such as loss of lives, damage to property, infrastructure, and loss of livestock worth Millions of Dollars, with a significant impact on the economy. The post-2003 period has witnessed an alarming trend of a rise in the frequency of landslides and the extent of damage and losses caused by them, with negative economic consequences. Sri Lanka National Report on Disaster Risk, Poverty and Human Development Relationship reveals that fewer than 50 landslide events occurred annually in the pre-2003 period. In contrast, the post-2003 period reveals a disturbingly increasing number of events, with the incidence exceeding 50 events in many years, and the Year 2006 reaching a peak of over 350 events.      

Triple P Approach – Prediction, Preparedness, and Prevention to proactively tackle natural hazards

Prediction

A detailed scientific study of disasters should reveal a logical pattern of events that preceded the destruction of precious lives, properties, infrastructure, and livelihoods. This makes it paramount for the availability of advanced technology on par with global standards to enable the prediction of disaster events with great precision.  Natural disasters have been claiming scores of precious lives and depriving hapless families of their loved ones, whilst causing immeasurable destruction to their properties and belongings in some instances beyond recovery. They inflict colossal damage to public infrastructure and facilities, disrupting day-to-day lives and costing Millions of Dollars in rebuilding. These losses would cause adverse economic impact and result in more burdens on the poor, who form the majority in SL and are already under severe cost-of-living pressure.

In the circumstances, the procurement of advanced technology capable of accurately predicting weather patterns with greater precision is undoubtedly a worthwhile investment with the topmost priority.

Preparedness and Prevention

It has hitherto been observed that every time a disaster strikes, concerted action is taken to offer humanitarian support and provide relief to the affected communities. Typically, well-meaning and public-spirited Sri Lankans have been coming forward to help their fellow citizens pick up the pieces of their lives with outpouring kindness, compassion, and generosity, and the Government of the day playing its usual role of repair, restoration, and reconstruction. What can be seen today in the aftermath of Cyclone Ditwah is the enormity of generosity and overwhelming kindness towards the masses battered by the ravages of natural hazards, which, without doubt, are noble gestures. However, it is good enough only until the next disaster strikes, unless proper Disaster Preparedness measures are taken to eliminate or minimize potential devastation.

What needs to be built is a robust mechanism of disaster resilience (DR), which requires a high level of disaster preparedness (DP) measures. DP entails the Government, Civil Organizations, Local Authorities, and Communities collectively taking action to anticipate, respond to, and recover from hazardous events. DP in post-independent SL has been sorely lacking. The painful lessons given by Cyclone Ditwah show the critical importance of proper DP measures.

Macro-level action plans of DP

Dry weather spells experienced in SL in many parts of the island, including disaster-prone areas, provide critically needed time and space windows to establish DP measures. DP measures comprise localized solutions as well as macro-level action plans to mitigate and avert the damages caused by natural hazards. Macro-level action plans encompass high-level strategic road maps with defined goals and milestones. Macro-level measures include the dredging of reservoirs, desilting riverbeds, restricting sand mining, imposing rules and regulations on disaster-resilient housing and infrastructure development, and prohibiting construction of houses on weaker grounds and in disaster-prone hilly terrains, protection of forest cover and banning land cledarance and deforestation without proper approval, and the growth of herbaceous layers and ground covers for soil conservation, year-round soil protection and improvement of soil structure, anchoring of topsoil, and prevention of soil erosion.  Moreover, the application of geological engineering techniques for soil conservation involves the use of geosynthetics, the erection of stone columns, embankments, and retaining walls, etc, to contribute to soil conservation and stability.    

Localised solutions

The localized solutions would entail context-specific measures depending on the nature of the terrain, including the removal of houses constructed on weaker grounds and risky hills, shifting new housing programmes to safer areas, conducting community awareness programmes, promoting disaster resilient practices and adaptive planning in constructions, carrying out periodical risk assessments, facilitating community engagement, arranging disaster preparedness drills to educate people on how to respond to disaster events effectively to minimize and avert potential losses and damage, in the event of a disaster event. Moreover, the installation of regional automated weather stations to provide real-time area-specific weather-related data, updates, forecasts, and early warning systems would be highly beneficial to local communities. Mechanisms should be created to facilitate “Regular Disaster Stakeholder Coordination” involving the regional coordinators/officials from National Building Research Organisation, Meteorological Department, local authorities up to Gramaniladhari level, and civil society organisations to ensure speedy reach of information to the grassroots, and local community representatives to ensure that communities are kept updated on up-to-the-minute developments, and ensure timely precautionary action is taken well in good time in the event of a potential disaster looming ahead.

Furthermore, safe local evacuation centres must be established to move communities to safety when a disaster strikes as part of the preparedness measures to ensure adequate disaster mitigation measures to safeguard lives.

Productive use of modern technology in evolving Robust DP measures

The authorities should give priority attention to devising plans to effectively harness modern technology in combating disaster events. Measures could be taken to carry out Digital Terrain Modeling of landslide-prone areas in SL using data acquisition techniques such as Light Detection and Ranging, and Photogrammetry. Once the data is collected, it can be processed using Geographic Information System (GIS) technology to create 3D models of the terrains and conduct detailed analysis of topography and area-specific features. Artificial intelligence-driven computer simulations of topographic data from landslide-prone areas can be carried out to assess the level of vulnerability, nature, and extent of potential damage, as well as the measures to be taken to avert a catastrophe and mitigate its potential impact.

Once this technology is operational and in situ, simulated hazard assessments can be carried out on an ongoing basis particularly during rainy seasons, covering areas identified by the NBRO as vulnerable, to assess the potential impact of landslides in advance, and to prepare for effective proportionate responsive measures in a proactive manner, rather than getting caught off guard and compelled to resort to panic un reactive actions. The ongoing simulation could also provide vital data for establishing robust long-term preventive, mitigatory, and responsive measures to save precious lives, properties, economic resources, business enterprises, as well as public utilities and infrastructure.

Local communities could be kept informed of up-to-the-minute information on changing atmospheric conditions with the potential to escalate disaster events, as provided by scientific analyses, and given prior warnings to offer sufficient time windows to initiate safety measures.

Economic Impact

Natural hazards and their destructive implications result in colossal economic losses involving Millions of US Dollars and multifaceted socio-economic repercussions, impacting short-term to medium-term and long-term Economic stability. A country like SL with a fragile economy is unable to absorb such prodigious economic shocks. Destruction of paddy cultivations, commercial crops, and vegetable cultivations, livestock farming, factories, business enterprises – particularly the small and medium sector (SME), loss of lives, properties, houses, livelihoods, and public utilities, as well as colossal losses suffered by vital public infrastructure, would impose an enormous financial burden on recovery and rebuilding.

All these would result in the depletion of the income generated by the main sources of government revenue, including income from tourism, and cause the need for a greater scale of imports, triggering balance of payment issues and forex losses, etc. Also, the necessity of resorting to large-scale borrowings to finance massive reconstruction needs would impose additional economic burdens which ultimately fall on the lap of the poor taxpayer, the man on the street who forms the majority in Sri Lanka, causing multifaceted economic repercussions as well as rising cost of living and associated socio-economic issues. Moreover, this situation could lead to budget overruns in terms of expenditure incurred and deficiency in revenue achievement, triggering the need for further borrowings, and rescheduling debt repayment commitments, etc.

The mammoth capital outlay needed to establish robust disaster preparedness and preventive mechanisms in this context must be treated as top-priority investments. These expenditures should be incurred with utmost care, total accountability, and transparency on scientifically designed, long-term solutions. If managed properly through long-term strategic plans, it could result in long-term economic benefits by minimizing future losses from potential natural hazards. They must receive deserving consideration in the financial planning process of GOSL and its annual budgets.

Triple R Recovery Actions – Repair, Restore, Rebuild

What is urgently needed is to repair and restore what has been devastated to its original level.

However, rebuilding entails a well-planned endeavour executed with greater strategic foresight, driven by scientific evidence and technology-driven action plans, offering proactive and adaptive actions to initiate tailored event-proportionate responsive measures.   

Rebuilding should be designed not only for immediate repair and speedy restoration. Rebuilding is a strategic endeavour that should be planned meticulously, taking into consideration the long-term implications of the vital Disaster Preparedness measures to establish the highest possible level of resilience.  Moreover, rebuilding plans must ensure that sufficient measures are taken to avoid reconstructions in vulnerable disaster-prone localities, prevent the wastage of hard-earned taxpayer money and borrowings made by GOSL that accompany long-term repayment obligations and fiscal commitments impacting the day-to-day lives of the majority.

Deeply Entrenched National Awareness on Resilience

This entails a society–wide approach that integrates understanding of risk, education and awareness, and collaboration in risk preparedness and mitigation by every citizen right across the society and all levels of government. Universality of this approach entails far-reaching action plans.

First and foremost – Integration of Resilience into Education

Resilience should be incorporated into education curricula to mould young children to become socially responsible, environmentally friendly citizens, with greater awareness and knowledge, and skills on resilience and advocating, and practicing sustainable lifestyles. Every discipline should incorporate this aspect in its respective study programmes, as the safety and survival of life on planet Earth takes precedence over everything else.

Other measures may also include empowering vulnerable communities, fostering pubic private partnerships to guarantee cohesive support for disaster management, implementing clear, empathetic communication systems during disaster events, and developing policy coordination to ensure cohesive actions by various arms of the government in managing crises..

Stark Reality

It appears that GW will continue unabated. Obviously, natural disasters that accompany GW will probably occur with added intensity and greater ferocity and continue to impact every aspect of human life. Hence, losses from hazards would continue unless and until robust, effective, long-lasting measures, which can avert/substantially mitigate their destructive impact, are firmly in place. This is the simple truth, and every person in SL should come to terms with the fact that there are no magical solutions to the threat of natural disasters that may happen in the days to come.

A tiny twitch of nature can cause an unimaginable scale of catastrophe in a split second, demonstrating the fragility and vulnerability of humanity and all forms of life, including all grandiose man-made things and edifices. Cyclone Ditwah has painfully taught this lesson.