3 December, 2022

Blog

War: The Domain Of The Demonic

By Kumar David

Prof. Kumar David

In two previous pieces I have inclined to the view that war in Europe (Ukraine-Russia-NATO) is unlikely. I continue to remain of that view but this article is about what may be the course of events if the entanglement goes the other way (“unlikely” is not the same as impossible). Let me once again summarise in three sentences why I am inclined to say why this European war is unlikely. Russia has suffered too much catastrophe, devastation and suffering during four wars (1708-09, 1812, 1914-17 and 1941-44) that its people will not accept another security threat; the West, NATO and Ukraine know this and will not push the NATO border to the point of Russian panic. Secondly, Biden and Boris (B&B) are playing an opportunist game for domestic consumption; their approval ratings at home have plummeted and they yearn for distraction, but nevertheless will not overstep, and thirdly Ukraine wants to get out of the trap of big-power pincers. If everyone keeps cool and is careful to step away from the precipice the crisis will be diffused.

The Ukrainian (conceivable NATO) border pierces into the Russian heart

The danger is that there is always a possible slip, an overreaction by this party or that. For example, to shore up his macho image Biden is sending up to 8000 troops to Western Europe and repositioning 2000 from Germany and Poland to Rumania, uncomfortably close to Russia. One misstep and some Russian General may panic and press the Rumania-target button. Boris went out on a clowning honk to Kiev; did he open his gigantic trap and promise more than he can safely deliver? Will Putin decide to move his strategic arsenal and bombers closer to the border? These are concerns at the military level; the bigger and far more important issues that may reshape the world are possible changes of a political nature.

Western leaders have tasted blood, at least a few drops. They have scored diplomatic victories and for sure would like to build on them. They for certain will harass Putin to push him into diplomatic concessions and domestic loosening up such as releasing locked up opposition leaders and containing his hell-bent mafia of assassins and thugs. At this time of writing Putin is internationally isolated except for China; the UN Security Council vote did not go well (only China provided firm backing). The anti-Russian European consensus is fraying but is still holding, and it does not appear that world opinion elsewhere appreciates the anxieties of the Russian people. Why not hammer the bugger on all sides for maximum gain, B&B may think. They have to calculate carefully; go too far and the injured bear will strike back. All one hears from the West is about how Putin should do this, not do that and so on, but not one word about what the West will do to alleviate Russia’s legitimate security concerns. Any NATO member can veto an application from a new applicant, but all NATO governments seem to opine that Putin is on the ropes and are in no mood to make concessions. Macron has engaged Putin in five days of ball-squeezing, all very friendly, but if instead he simply declared that France would impose a moratorium on new NATO membership for five or ten years, tension would instantly fizzle out.

[Article 10 of the NATO Treaty: The Parties may, by unanimous agreement, invite any other European State in a position to further the principles of this Treaty and to contribute to the security of the North Atlantic area, to accede to this Treaty].

The best way for Putin to undermine the West is by resetting international balances. Sanctions against Russia will prompt him to reconsider what the devil he is doing by approving sanctions on Iran; or for that matter why he is in the pact at all. If Trump can walk out, why not Putin? Mind you he can go further than that. Iran has money, can afford the best Russian technology and would be happy to buy ‘Iron Dome’ protection for its nuclear facilities. What if Iran can make its nuclear sites Israel-style missile proof? There will be a huge shift in the Middle Eastern theatre if Iran has the bomb. And Russia has so far been only a shy supporter of the Syrian regime; if Russia is isolated by the West what is to stop Putin being less shy?

Then there is the China factor. The Taiwan Straits is a tinderbox. China, I think will extract its pound of flesh for the support it’s extending to Russia on Ukraine. Xi Jinping endorsed the Russian position that there should be no more NATO expansion when he met Putin on February 3 at the Winter Olympics opening. The meeting has been described as warm – the bear and the dragon in an intimate embrace! What if Russian support for Taiwan’s reunification were to become more explicit? It is wrong to think that the Russian bear can be cornered, pummelled and bloodied at no cost. It’s going to be more chaotic than that and confrontation will reshape strategic balances in the West and the East.

The Crimean population is 66% Russian, but Khrushchev presented it to Ukraine (then a USSR ‘province’) in February 1954 in a “fit of drunken generosity”. Even in a nightmare nobody imagined then that the Soviet Union would collapse and Ukraine would become an independent country. Even as dignified a critic of Soviet Communism as Alexander Solzhenitsyn says: “How much indignation and horror Russians experienced! Our limp diplomacy betrayed us”. It is relevant to bear this vodka lubricated antecedent in mind; as early as 1992 this illegality was officially denounced by the Supreme Council of Russia.

It is too sickening to speculate what it would be like if war breaks out in an even limited European theatre. The Russians will take Kiev and occupy most of eastern and southern Ukraine within days by moving directly from the east, the north through Belarus and the south from Crimea. The separatists will break out under Russian air-force protection from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Western sanctions will be brushed aside; some kind of military response by NATO will be called for and that could be disastrous! Germany will refuse to get involved but Poland and Rumania may allow the US to use their territory. Will Russia deploy missiles against these bases? Then what? Can anything turn back mounting escalation? “Russian bombers finally can do what American bombers long have been able to—strike targets on land with precision from hundreds or thousands of miles away. Well beyond the range of enemy air-defences” says Forbes online. Defence requires first-strike victory even on a limited scale; America and Britain are willing to play at a toy war, but real escalation! And what will it cost Russia in men and treasure to hold on to Ukraine?

The road to peace is crystal clear. My theory is that there will be no war because B&B don’t want it, all they want is sabre-rattling to shore up declining domestic popularity. But that cock will not fight for long in the face of mounting escalation. Why escalate even US Senators are asking: “Why on earth do we want Ukraine in NATO, what does it do for defence of” the “Free World”; Ukraine in NATO does bugger-all to strengthen European or Western defences. How does membership of faraway Ukraine reshape NATO defences? These are questions that the now jingoistic BBC will not even ask the reams of “expert” commentators it invites on its shows. Europe and America understand that Russia will not allow NATO to creep up to its border; the sabre-ratting is entirely for domestic consumption but things can go wrong. Why play with fire? By far the status quo is the best; let sleeping dogs lie; keep Ukraine out of NATO, but in other matters (economy etc) let it do as it wishes. It’s like keeping Sri Lanka out of all military pacts with the QUAD, China or India. Nonalignment is a policy that has served as well.

Parallels

I have been asked by readers if there is a parallel between Ukraine-Russia and the national question in Sri Lanka. My reply is a firm NO. This island has been populated by forbearers of the modern Tamils and Sinhalese for over two millennia. But in Roman and pre-Roman times, the lands north of the Black and the Caspian Seas (modern Ukraine and the Russian Steppes) were the domain of Iron-Age cultures and war-like nomadic peoples (Scythians, Sarmatians and later the Huns). They left behind no irrigation systems, cities, monuments, edifices or civilisational accoutrements comparable to the Dry Zone, Anuradhapura, the megalithic remains in the Jaffna Peninsula or Tamil-Brahimi inscriptions. Simply put the civilisational story of the Ukraine and Russian Steppes is more recent and less integrated than Lanka’s.

Since Medieval times that region has been a combat zone of changing borders and annexations between Russian Muscovite rulers, Polish and Baltic Kingdoms, the Cossacks and even Sweden and Finland. It has been a chequer-board too complex to explain here. Eastern Ukraine was incorporated into the Russian Empire (Imperial Russia) in about 1780 during the reign of Catherine the Great. Thereafter “Kyiv was a primary Christian centre, attracting pilgrims, and the cradle of many of the Empire’s most important religious figures” – Wikipedia. The Jaffna Kingdom and Yaalpaanam played no such role in crystallisation of Sinhala ideology. However, from British times there has been a unified market and a moderately integrated via education and employment economy in Ceylon. My conclusion therefore is that both in the historical storyline and in the context of the current standoff there is little in common between the two cases.

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Latest comments

  • 4
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    The sabre-rattling is frightening:
    .
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/feb/12/ukraine-crisis-russia-invasion-fears-putin-biden-latest-news
    .
    Let’s hope that the balance of terror holds.
    .
    But we can hardly be happy with such a precarious system.

    • 2
      3

      KD wake up! Sri Lanka is actually worse than Ukraine i.e. a US colony already with the Weaponization of the AUKUS Sinhala Buddhist Diaspora and 2 US citizen Rajapakse brothers running the country!

      Lanka is already an American Colony with the Covid-masked Digital Colonialism project for full cyber control of the country;s Data and policy process- Full Spectrum Dominance (FSD) with Over the Horizon (OTH) operations unfolding..
      This is why Kerawelapitiaya and other assets are being sold off by the American citizens.. while the economy tanks.. The tip of the Iceberg.. of Covid masked Digital Colonialism..

  • 3
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    First paragraph sums the situation up excellently.

  • 3
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    Read it all. First para to last. The current play is well encapsulated. Hopefully it remains play and goes nowhere else. The author puts all bits and pieces together beautifully, meticulously. Should be made mandatory reading for western journalist, including the BBC, to think that as a boy I believed everything the BBC said.

    • 2
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      Sarah,
      The BBC may be bad quite often, but when it wants, it can be very good. Watch this, I doubt RT would come close:
      https://youtu.be/P54mEFxIHbQ

      • 1
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        Thanks, oc.
        .
        Dear Old Gorby is there, still talking sense.
        .
        Why, oh why, didn’t the world listen to him when he was in his prime?
        .
        Panini Edirisinhe

        • 2
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          SM,
          Gorby himself admits he was taken for a ride. He wasn’t the first. You should watch this. There were many things we weren’t told in those days.
          https://youtu.be/BU2R5hNIifE

        • 1
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          That was most interesting, although it is about Khrushchev, and not Gorby. However, I noticed a comment in which it was said that where Krushchev had failed, Gorby succeeded.
          .
          Your comments are always welcome, dear oc.

    • 0
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      Sarath,
      Your limited-ness is you are opposing the world by only seeing and having evaluated through a media (here BBC), but not having analyses with your own intelligence. Please quickly browse this link. (Thirukural 423) https://www.kuruvirotti.com/iyal-tamil/thirukkural/epporul-yar-yar-vay-ketpinum-kural-adhikaram-arivudaimai/

    • 0
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      BBC is free media. But it need not be your whole source. Today you have surrendered on Prof. Kumar’s Keerai Kadai, for your knowledge. Professor Kumar buys his Keerai buches from his vendor without checking the contents, because he knows thatl when he sells it back to his customers like you, you also buy it without examining the Keerai Bundle. Things change when Ethir Kadai comes to Professor Kumar’s Kadi. That is available only in democratic countries. In the free world, if you want only to feed with your left hand, stay with Professor Kumar; you are free to do that and carry on with your pompous praising of his babbling. But that may not suit you when he starts to attack your Royal highnesses. That time you have to question his ability to judge things and perhaps, you may have to turn around & degrade him. For the time being you are being satisfied with your left hand feeding. Prof. Kumar is over 80. History will excuse him. But I don’t know about you and if you will have a chance to see another 1989, when, if you have missed a lesson needed to be learnt from it.

  • 5
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    Putin has amassed possibly a hundred thousand of its military in a very likely bid to invade and occupy Ukraine in readiness for NATO encroachment, far from the Atlantic and in a very overt display of belligerence against a stoic Russia. Putin will, if goaded, exact a precision incursion that will diminish Western hopes of encompassing Ukraine into its sphere of influence to needle Russia. Putin should also carry any conflict to the B&B doorstep to teach them a thing or two..

  • 1
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    One has to agree with Prof. Kumar that, with all info out there, an invasion is unlikely.
    President Putin has negotiated with many Western Europe and North American leaders. I understand that he will talk more with French President and American President. There is chance he will have more talk with German Chancellor too. (As he had teased long time the Britain, from Britain he may not b able to see consolations for his fear.) After all these if he invades, he will isolate himself on his own accord, need not to be an action of European countries & US. By now he should have formed an idea of how possible keeping Ukraine out of NATO, by his military threat. Other side, if he wants to strength ties with Ukraine and minimize it feeling to join NATO, it may work better and less costly and a safe way than an invasion. He should know by now the Western Nation’s inclination for a diplomatic solution for his fear, which he created for him by annexing Crimea. For an all-inclusive solution, Putin may have to put Crimea on the table, because Western sanction on that issue still present. After talking with so many Western leaders and Putin invade Ukraine, they will not feel good about President Putin treating them as a bunch of Banana. A Serious consequence may the end.

  • 1
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    In addition to be finding out that Military threat may not work, now he might have realized the cost of extensive war needed to control Ukraine and holding it in future. If Russia invade and capture Ukraine, it may annex only the Eastern Ukraine with it and leave the rest intact under a puppet government. It is not sure if that puppet government would be able stand up for elections, even if those are manipulated. There is restlessness in Belarus, & Kazakhstan. America has connections with Kyrgyzstan. If Russia mess up its border with Ukraine, then from entire south to high north-west, Russia is going have created unstable countries. This will be, in a real-World War situation much more damaging than Ukraine joining NATO. Russia may have to fix the governments on its border to keep its defense good. It should not depend on opportunistic puppets. President Putin, if he has seen what happened in Langkang, he would have realized that stability is the best security, instead of depending economically week puppets. He wants to study well the case of East Germany, one time USSR’s important member, now much of it changed when unified as one Germany. So, Russia is safer if Russia adopt NATO formula or one similar, i.e. Economy first. In a formula like that, Russia cannot build gas line for Germany & tease NATO.

  • 1
    1

    One advantage for Russia is so far from NATO has not raised its flag to fight along with Ukraine. If Russia invade it will not happen. So far, their preparation is 1/100 of Russian preparation. But is it on Russia’s favor or will work against Russia? If my assumption that NATO will not use troops in this war, (Germany will not give even arms to non-member Ukraine) It is unlikely Ukraine fight this war wholeheartedly. In that case President Volodymyr Zelensky may wait until Russia invade to watch how his troops are fairing against mighty Russian Troops. If Russia go for onslaught of civilians and over running cities mercilessly, Volodymyr Zelensky will bugger of to a safe heaven. Remember NATO is union to defend West from Russia. Now Ukraine in treat of Russia. Ukraine is connected to other NATO members. Ukraine is in Europe. Here, if the NATO couldn’t extend full protection to a country which resemble like a NATO member in this situation NATO member, it has to rework its security situation. Here is where President Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz & PM Boris Johnson’s words have to take a true shape. Russia will face serious consequences!

  • 2
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    Be realistic.
    USA or Western Europe does not face any external threat from any country in the world.

    The days of communist expansion are over and neither Russia nor China is a threat to US or western interests.

    But Russia and China are right to be concerned above their security via Ukraine and Taiwan and to be encircled by NATO and QUAD respectively.

    Why not dissolve NATO and QUAD and set an example in the name of democracy and free trade.

    Military alliances are always a prelude to economic hegemony?

  • 3
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    Dear Prof. David
    Yes, I have been consistent on my take on the sabre rattling by Putin. Putin has a lot to lose if he were to invade Ukraine. There are bound to be skirmishes. To start with the threatened closure of the gas pipe line to Germany. Russian could ill afford this luxury, since the Russian economy is in tatters
    All these are sheer war games in my view
    America has nothing to loose they are a world apart. They thrive on the instability of nations. Thats the job for CIA

  • 3
    3

    “Western leaders have tasted blood, at least a few drops. They have scored diplomatic victories and for sure would like to build on them.”
    *
    Let us get a few things clarified.
    1. Western leaders have tasted blood, at least a few drops.
    The last drop tasted by the West I remember was in licking the wounds of Afghanistan.
    The US is back to its bullying tactics on two fronts. But neither is working very well. The US economy is fast heading towards chaos, and Biden is more desperate than trump.
    What can be better than a war to divert attention. But are its allies except its three Anglophone pups ready?

    2. They have scored diplomatic victories and for sure would like to build on them.
    Where may I know? Turkey, Iran, Egypt…? One can measure diplomatic success from the support US had for its “Diplomatic Boycott” of Winter Olympics.
    *
    The author would do well to read analysts who use platforms other than the dominant Western media.

    • 1
      2

      News from Ukraine is not quite to the liking of the US and its vassal. There are signs that Ukraine will settle for less than a seat in the NATO.
      But take nothing for granted with the big bully and the sidekick. When it was becoming clear that there was no WMD in Iraq, they attacked Iraq before they could be stopped.

    • 2
      2

      General Wesley Clark: Wars Were Planned Seven Countries In Five Years.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TY2DKzastu8
      *
      Old story, but seriously worrying revelation, narrated in Nov 2007 with a powerful sense of humor.

      • 2
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        It seems Putin is de-escalating. He has sent his message, and Ukraine seems agreeable to what used to be known as Finlandization. Nobody in his senses wants a war. So this discussion is now only of academic interest.

        • 0
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          Finlandization won’t be successful in Ukraine as it has internal, as well as external Russian agitation. Finland, Norway, and Sweden are not in the interest of Russia because Western Europe, which is its enemy, does not expand northwards. Ukraine was not taken into NATO because it is not a full democratic country. Finlandization needs, by the nature of its operation, the country to go over and above democratization. That is good only for Scandinavian countries, Denmark………Remember, Hitler captured Denmark, and other neutral countries during the war. Finlandization is not a guarantee from Russia to leave Ukraine alone, While Putin is trying to become worse than Hitler. Finlandization of Ukraine will be only the Langkang cease fact, CFA 2002, buying time to effortless run over. Further Ukraine is a GUAM member, these countries who escaped from Russian control and who are willing to operate alone and away from Russia. Russia wanted NATO to sign that it will not allow Ukraine to join NATO. Further, Russia cannot keep troops on Ukraine borders & threaten West Ukraine to become Finland or else! This is faraway demand from Finlandization. This is advocated only by UOJ Saddampy, who lacks understanding in international issues and pacts. While Russian troops are fighting in Eastern Ukraine, talking about Finlandization is only a talk of Russification. It is one of the stories that Thenalliraman says is Thiyagarajar’s court.

  • 0
    0

    srikrish,
    I don’t understand the concept you are trying to expound as “Be realistic” .
    Human rights are needed to be achieved for all humans and a modified version of it, animal rights, which humans undertake to enforce on behalf of animals, should be achieved for all animals. Further “rights” are loose and justified for the time of presence, concept, change according to human civilization and scientific advancements. I look at the rights of a man different from many countries, who endeavor to put the locally defined Sovereignty and native people’s claims of who holds lands’ ownership. I come from a civilization group who define the rights of the land as “Yathum Urea” and the equality among men as “Yavarum Kelir”. So, the freedom of Americans, for me who is one of them while being an Eelam Tamil, is not enough. My freedom is not full though I have got a place to live with freedom. “Yathum Urea” part is implemented to rectify my mishaps in Ceylon by escaping to the US, but the “Yavarum Kelir” part is not implemented in the world, in my way of thinking.
    Though the brethren in land I live at is free, the brethren in the land I was born is still slaves.

  • 0
    0

    That is because Tamil Eelam is being swallowed alive by Sinhala Buddhism. They are liberated only when every world citizen has equal rights in the land, wherever he lives. I wish all American would think like me, and most of them do that, too. Therefore, American (NATO) soldiers are perceived as a threat to Russia, where outdated communism failed but modern fascism, which resembles old communism has taken over.
    Would you conduct a referendum in Hong Kong to find out if they want to stay under China or go alone? Do you want to hold a referendum again in Crimea, in a few years, in case Russia invades Ukraine and is facing serious economic sanctions? You know why in Langkang it is always in the “cartwheel party selection” in elections. Because, without any deviation, all incumbent Aanduwas always destroyed the country more than the earlier ones. President Putin, fearing the West (rather Ukraine) is no way different from Royals, who keep ruling Langkang Modaya without any effort by brain washing them in Sinhala Buddhism by oppressing the Tamils. Allowing Tamils to show their heads up will destroy the Sinhala Buddhism and thus the majority will rebel against Royals.

  • 0
    0

    President Putin expressed the reason for his fears of Ukraine, unlike you say which is NATO, because he had snatched a part of Ukraine and Ukraine would collect friends and would launch a war to regain its part. Putin didn’t ask for a program from the West to dismantle NATO, which is your longing, and which would put water on Putin’s dream of rebuilding the USSR by restricting appetite for his arms race, so he asked only to not allow Ukraine to Join NATO.
    Putin is dreaming, by that request, that he has put seed by capturing Crimea and hopes it will grow as a new USSR, deterrence free from Ukraine or NATO. Look at East Germany, which was one time portrayed as an enemy of the advanced world by its communist coolies, but now standing on the other side of the line, as united “Germany ”. That is the case in many Eastern European countries’ situation too. This is telling if Russia and China are liberated, that will be the case for them too.

  • 0
    0

    The world will be much different, or rather unrealistic if they know the truth. That day, not the oppressed, but the oppressor will be left behind in 2500 years old life. The realism, as you perceive it now will also change that day. Sinhala Buddhist don’t know that only “The Lion King Vijaya’s Tooth” is in the casket paraded on the elephants on the day of Vesak. The Bald Heads don’t want Modayas to know the truth because Bald Heads’ majesty will evaporate into the thin air at that very moment. Now, if you want to step into the 21st century and walk in that and see the wonders of it and feel the thrill & excitement of it, you tell yourself that the Casket should be opened and shown to the public to know the truth.

  • 2
    0

    Small Dutch and Portuguese nations expanded into big empires and contracted to significantly smaller size today.

    In human history over 8000 years small, but powerful countries created huge empires that subsequently shrunk or disappeared altogether. British empire is no more. Byzantine empire is mere history today.

    We have American, Russian, Chinese, and Indian empires today: some of them may expand, contract and disappear in the future. Who knows, a new empire might pop up.

    What we witness today between Russia and Ukraine is history repeating: If you don’t expand your empire, the probability is that you will shrink! If your empire shrunk in the past, try to remake it if you can.

    Survival of the most powerful!

  • 1
    0

    Clearly, war in any part of the world is a problem for the entire world because of nuclear ad other weapons of mass destruction. Geo-politics is such that Russia, unlike in the case of other countries such as Latvia cannot afford Ukraine to be a pawn of the western world. The easiest way is to install a Russian Poodle as the decision maker of Ukraine. But there are difficulties. It is no secret that the west would want a regime difficult to Russia in Ukraine. The best is to make whatever existing regime of Ukraine a Poodle of the west. As Prof Kum puts it some General of whatever side may “panic” at some strategic movement of the opponent and start a war, perhaps even without declaring it properly. Can both the West and the Russia come to terms that to leave Ukraine out of their manipulative games? Very unlikely at present. There is the other possibility of tensions descending in Ukraine among Russians and Ukrainians living there and create a refugee problem for Russia, a good excuse for Russian to put Ukraine in place. To put a long story short, geo-politics and geo-strategy have become a global villain.

  • 1
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    will history repeat itself.
    in march 1938 germany annexed german speaking austria.Historically austrians viewed themselves as german but now most of them do not.When hitler rde in his motorcade into austria the austrians cheered lining both sides of the street.Hitler himself was born a austrian so it was very easy for him. Putin annexed the crimean peninsula in feb 2014.It consists mostly of russians so it was easy for putin too and earlier it was part of russia i believe.The russians there must have cheered him.
    Then hitler said the sudetanland that bordered germany but was part of czechoslovakia should be given to germany otherwise he was going to attack and take over czechoslovakia.So britain and france assigned the sudetanland to germany in oct 1938.Putin has not asked for the eastern part of ukraine where the russian seperatists are fighting to be given to russia,because he knows fullwell unlike for hitler this time the US and its allies will just draw the lne and tell him to go to hell.

    • 1
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      contd
      so is putin going to follow what hitler did for the sudetanland and annex the eastern part of ukraine that consists mostly of russians. His excuse will be that NATO has moved into ukraine in a big way and armed it and ukraine wants tojoin nato so russia has to safeguard its borders and have a buffer zone between it and ukraine because it will definely join NATO.So putnis going to follow hitlers 2nd step of the sudetanland with his second step of annexing eastern part of the russian seperatist stronghold.He will stop the invasion with that and say to NATO if you attack me there then you will lose the whole of ukraine.That is hitlers third step when he invaded the czeckoslovakia .
      Putin is following hitler’s path but will be more cautios than hitler who threw caution to the winds.
      will definely join NATO.So putnis going to follow hitlers 2nd step of the sudetanland with his second step of annexing eastern part of the russian seperatist stronghold.He will stop the invasion with that and say to NATO if you attack me there then you will lose the whole of ukraine.That is hitlers third step when he invaded the czeckoslovakia .
      Putin is following hitler’s path but will be more cautios than hitler who threw caution to the winds.

      • 1
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        cont

        i suggest to people to invest in oil and gas going up and equity indices especially germany’s dax coming down.

        another good nvestment will be gold because it will be considred a safe haven if war breaks out.So go to sea street and buy all the gold you can with the wortless rupee.

        • 1
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          cont

          just like buying commodities and shortselling eqity indices you got to know when to dispose.If the chances of war reced quickly dispose but if it does not hang on to them.IF wat does indeed break out you will just wait till the investments peak and then sell them and have a swim in your money.Put all the money in a empty swimming pool and swim from one end to the other.That what i do.

      • 0
        1

        “Putin is following hitler’s path?”
        How may I know?
        *
        Did Hitler really throw caution to the winds? he miscalculated against the USSR, and paid dearly for it.
        *
        It is easy to stick labels on one and use the label to attack the person.

        • 0
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          SJ

          putin was a former KGB high up and has spent years in berlin.he knows the history of germany very well and will follow hitlers path.He knows that hitler hadd wonderful victories in the first 2 years and he has to only follow that path but not do the rash things like invadind russia while at the same time fighting the allies.However even the russian campaign hitler could have got a great victory if he had invaded 3 months earlier,but instead wasted 3 months fighting te tough greeks wh had humiliated his buddy mussolini by chasing the italians out.

          • 0
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            sj

            in case you aare wondering why that 3 months fighting the greeks was crucial for hitler,the russian winter set in and the german mechanised brigade which blitzkriezed through russia caapturing millions of russian soldiers,got bogged down in the ice.Further the german infantry were not equipeed for the cold and did not even have the winter clothing and many of themfroze to death,allbecause hitler thought hee could capture russian before winter set in.Still he may have with all these mistakes done it but for another great mistake when he went for stalingrad just because it bore the name of stalin,instaed of as originally planned going for the oil fields in the caucases.that diversin cost him dearly.

  • 1
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    here is a good article.You can see the donbas region shaded in light green for which russian seperatists are fighting.It is not a very large area,almost only the size of crimea which iss shaded in red which is already annexed to russia.However the donbas region will secure for putin another part of russian border from the NATO and also secure the crimea which he also took earlier.

    https://www.vox.com/22917719/russia-ukraine-invasion-border-crisis-nato-explained

    • 1
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      Thanks, Shankar.
      .
      I won’t claim to have read all of that article, but acts like yours are positives.

  • 2
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    Russia may be playing some kind of game in Ukraine, but Ukraine’s situation is a big test on Biden, and how strong his presidency actually is.
    .
    This is how Putin is tormenting Biden for defeating Trump. Trump was Putin’s lapdog.
    Defeating Trump was a victory for democracy, but Trump’s mad dog friends will not give up.
    I am sure there are lots of internal issues in Russia, that Putin wants to divert the people’s attention away, so two birds with one stone, conveniently…
    .
    Much more far-reaching issues are also being tested here.
    China too has similar ambitions for Taiwan. If Russia is to succeed in Ukraine, then China will equally do the same with Taiwan.
    Taiwan has amassed immense technology, particularly on semiconductor FABs and Chip production, that is vital for China.
    If Russia attacks Ukraine China will follow. It will not be easy for America to defend these two countries on two fronts.
    .
    Similarly, if Biden and NATO act too fast, it may needlessly lead to a catastrophe, therefore Biden’s abilities will be tested here to the very end.
    .
    Let us hope that this will be sorted through diplomatic means. There is too much at stake here.

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      human touch

      you made an important point about china.Putin and the father that feeds the nation of sri lanka xi jin ping are good buddies.Theywill consult and do decisions jointly.Een recently putin met him.Putin has to be a bit patient without going too far too fast until the oiland gas pipelines to china through siberia is complete.So sri lanka ‘s father may have cautioned putin to do some sabre rattling but not to go overboard yet until pipelin is finished and china has modernized its armed forces.Then together they will be invincible with simultaneously russia attacking ukraine and china attacking taiwan.

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