By Rajan Philips –

Rajan Philips

“The Autumn of the Ayatollahs” is the title of an essay in the November/December 2025 issue of the journal Foreign Affairs. The essay authored by Karim Sadjadpour, an American commentator of Iranian descent, explores whether a post Ayatollah Khamanei regime will “endure, transform or implode,” viewing each scenario in the context of the devastating weakening of the regime and its allies in the two years after the October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel. Drawing on the late 20^th century transitional examples of Russia, China, North Korea, Pakistan and Turkey, Sadjadpour speculates on the possibilities for the regime and Iran after Khamenei.   

“Death or incapacitation of Khamenei would be the obvious trigger for change,” writes Sadjadpour, while “external shocks – a collapse in oil prices, intensified sanctions, renewed military strikes by Israel or the United States – could further destabilize the regime.” But Sadjadpour was not looking for external agency, and certainly not the killing of Khamenei under orders from Trump and Netanyahu. With Khamenei gone, the regime is showing signs of both endurance and implosion, but no signs of transformation.

A Thai Cargo Ship under attack in the Strait of Hormuz

As anticipated, the late Ayatollah’s second son Mojtaba Khamenei has been selected from a limited pool of candidates to succeed his father, disregarding one of the founding principles of the 1979 revolution that hereditary succession is “un-Islamic.” The filial succession is now viewed as a continuation of the father’s hardline, even though in 1989 when the elder Khamenei succeeded Ayatollah Khomenei, the fiery first Supreme Leader after the revolution, that succession was seen as a victory for the pragmatists over hardliners who included Ahmed Khomeini, the son of the departing Leader.

No Prospect for Pragmatism

In 1989, Aiaytollah Ali Khamenei was the mild mannered moderate among contending rivals, who was expected to lead the way to pragmatism instead of fundamentalism – seeking rapprochement with the west and focussing on the restoration of the economy. The circumstances of the current succession hastened by external agency are not conducive for his son to seek rapprochement or normalization of relations with the west. On the contrary, the regime now seems desperately determined to respond to the overpowering and relentless attacks of the US and Israeli forces by attacking airports, oil fields and refineries in neighbouring Gulf countries.

Iran is also enforcing a virtual blockade in the narrow Strait of Hormuz that is a vital passage for about 20% of the world’s oil shipment. It has threatened to lay mines in the strait and to attack ships passing through. About 12 cargo ships, including a Thai ship, have been attacked in the two weeks of war and seven mariners have been killed. A number of gulf countries have stopped oil production for want of storage and shipment. The upshot is the prospect of a global oil crisis of uneven supplies and high prices that have not been experienced since the 1973 oil embargo in the wake of the Yom Kippur War that saw the price of oil increasing four fold from $3 to $12 a barrel.

The present crisis is expected to ratchet up crude oil prices to $200 a barrel in current dollars from what was below $80 before Trump started the war. The price has been yo-yoing above and below $100 in harmony with Trump’s musings about the course of the war and the time for its ending. The current market uncertainty stems from the growing realization that the Trump Administration was not clear about why it was starting the war and now it does not know how or when to bring it to an end.

On the other hand, there appears to be certainty about what they are doing in both Tehran and Tel Aviv. Iran’s new Supreme Leader, who is yet to make his first appearance, has made his first public statement through a television readout – defiantly promising to fight on and to keep the Strait of Hormuz shut. Prime Minister Netanyahu responded from Tel Aviv threatening that there is no life insurance for “any of the leaders of the terrorist organization,” his characterization of the Iranian regime.

The Strait of Hormuz is apparently not a concern for Netanyahu, and keeping the strait open is Trump’s business. The latter’s latest musing is that rising oil prices are good for the US economy because the US is the world’s biggest oil producer. Just like the tariffs were good for the US coffers until it was time to pay back the illegal bounty. The US is now the biggest producer of oil at 23 million barrels a day, but it has always been the biggest consumer of oil and now consumes 20 million barrels a day. Higher oil prices can benefit the US economy only at the expense of its consumers.

Oil market watchers are predicting a daily $3 increase in price if the current situation were to continue. The International Energy Agency has warned that the market is experiencing “the most significant supply disruption in its history.” Significant enough for the UN Security Council to pass a resolution demanding Iran to stop the “egregious attacks” on the Gulf countries. China and Russia abstained for the resolution to pass 13-0, rather than vetoing it, while pointing out the “extremely unbalanced” wording of the resolution that made no mention of how the war started.

In Moscow, Putin has chimed in that his earlier warnings that destabilizing the Middle East would create a global oil crisis are now proving to be true. Europe and Asia among the most impacted regions in the current oil crisis. With Europe, Puttin is having the last laugh, for now, in offering the European countries to resume Russian supplies after they have been cutting back on their oil and gas imports for four years to punish Russia for invading Ukraine. To complete the circle, Trump is now lifting the sanctions for others, especially India, against importing oil from Russia.

China and India are the biggest Asian consumers at 16% and 5.5% respectively of the total global consumption. China is reportedly trying to get Iran to allow its oil shipment to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Other Asian countries are taking measures to restrict consumption if the current war and crisis were to continue after two weeks. India has imposed a 20% cut in LNG supply to the industrial sector, while the Philippines and Vietnam are planning on returning to the Covid era restrictions of working-from-home. The short term saving grace worldwide appears to be the current availability of large amounts of residual stocks.

Regime Weakening

More than two weeks ago the world did not foresee the current war and the unfolding crisis. Even those in America who started the war did not think through its unintended consequences even as they were not clear eyed about what they were trying to achieve. The American military has the list of Iranian assets that should be destroyed and it is capable of achieving that. Israel has its own objectives and has opened a second from in Lebanon, where the Israeli army is all but having a free hand in creating a new Gaza south of the Litani River and is forcibly evacuating Lebanese Christians – ostensibly to keep Hezbollah out of rocket range but potentially to plant new Israeli settlements.

The death toll in Lebanon is getting close to a thousand while it is long past that marker in battered Iran. Yet Iran has not fallen apart or folded over like Venezuela. Not only the regime but also the Iranian society has not come apart, as some envisaged it might – similar to the fate of Yugoslavia, along its multiple ethnic faultlines. The US attempt to involve the Kurds proved to be a non-stater not because of Trump’s claim that he does not like it but because Kurds rejected the invitation to get involved.

The Trump Administration was also insensitive to the religious implications of assassinating the Supreme Leader who was not only Iran’s Head of State but also a spiritual father for Shia Muslims across the Shia crescent stretching from Lebanon to Karachi in Pakistan. The war has disrupted the Sunni – Shia amity and reopened old enmities. The Gulf countries that have gotten used to prospering while relying on America for their security, are now realizing that rather than giving them security the American bases on their land have become the reason for Iran’s attacks on them. Not only military bases but also civilian and economic assets are also now targets for attack.

Until Trump’s misadventures and notwithstanding the two wars against Iraq during the two Bush presidencies, America was always able to demonstrate its ability to be an effective arbiter in spite of its bankrolling support for Israel. Not anymore. The US is a co-belligerent in the region alongside Israel. All the monarchs of Persian Gulf must be concerned about the return on their direct and indirect investments with the Trump Administration. Rather than securing political stability and economic prosperity, the Gulf countries are facing instability and uncertainty.

The final reckoning for Trump’s foreign forays can only happen in America and not elsewhere. His is the first American war to be unpopular from the outset. All previous wars were popular at the start and people turned against them as they dragged on, costing American lives and billions of dollars without any compensating benefits. The early monetary costs of this war are really monstrous: $5 billion on the first weekend on munitions alone, and $11.2 billion overall at the end of the first week. At over one billion dollar a day, Trump will have a hard time getting Congress approval for supplementary funding to keep prosecuting the war with no end in sight.

Many of his vocal MAGA (Make America Great Again) supporters have turned against Trump, but he still maintains strong support among Republicans in general. Although only one third of Americans are backing Trump, 90% of them are Republicans and that explains the chokehold he has on Republicans in the current Congress. But an extended war and rising prices will not help them in the November midterm elections, in which Republicans are expected to lose the House and potentially the Senate. That will weaken the Trump presidency and render him a lame duck for the rest of his term. Perhaps more than much touted weaking of the Iranian regime and its new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. But first, he needs to be in a position to ward off threats and attacks from Tel Aviv.