By Colombo Telegraph –

“But support for the President will be brittle at best, not least because of the rough tactics Basil has tried to employ. The most likely casualty of the current political tempest is the SLFP-UNP MoU, which held out the prospect of a broadly based “southern consensus” on a devolution proposal to drive the peace process forward.” the US Embassy Colombo informed Washington.

The President and his senior advisor Basil Rajapaksa will continue to use a mix of threats, persuasion, and enticements to cobble together a bare majority in parliament.

The ambassador Blake wrote “President Rajapaksa’s strategy of assuring himself a majority by wooing crossovers and reshaping his cabinet has stirred up a hornet’s nest. Rather than proceeding smoothly by welcoming in the disaffected UNPers, large swathes within each of the major political parties now feel alienated. The President and his senior advisor Basil Rajapaksa will continue to use a mix of threats, persuasion, and enticements to cobble together a bare majority in parliament. Not to succeed at this point would send a signal of weakness and result in a great loss of face.”

The Colombo Telegraph found the related leaked cable from the WikiLeak database. The cable classified as “CONFIDENTIAL” analyses UNP internal crisis and Karu Jayasuriya led cross over. The cable was written on January 25, 2007 by the US Ambassador to Colombo Robert O. Blake under the subject -SRI LANKA: PRESIDENT STRUGGLING IN ATTEMPT TO WOO CROSSOVERS.

Under the subheading “UNP DISSIDENTS RESIST RANIL’S OVERTURES” ambassador Blake wrote “A meeting between UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe and his intra-party critic Karu Jayasuriya was unsuccessful in resolving the UNP rift. Embassy has learned that Jayasuriya’s supporters (including his son-in-law, Navin Dissanayake) put pressure on Karu not to cave in to Wickremesinghe’s “delaying tactics” (promises on overdue party reforms). The dissident group — at least those in line for ministerial posts — are reportedly insisting the crossovers go forward as planned. However, the would-be defectors have failed to deliver enough colleagues to assure the present and his camp a workable majority, making the entire move a questionable exercise for the Rajapaksa team.”

“President Rajapaksa’s cabinet restructuring, expected during the astrologically “auspicious time” between January 23-25, has yet to be announced, leading to rampant rumors and confusion across the political spectrum. Initially, most analysts expected a group of “reformist” dissidents in the major opposition United National Party (UNP) to accept ministerial posts, thereby endangering the MoU between the UNP and the governing Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP). Currently, sources in the UNP tell us less than 12 party members will take cabinet positions, while many remain unsatisfied with the portfolios offered.” he further wrote.

Under the subheading “TRIAL BALLOON FOR RANIL AS PM PROBABLY NOT SERIOUS” ambassador Blake wrote “dding to the confusion over the UNP’s position, on January 24 papers quoted UNP Secretary-General Tissa Attanayake as welcoming Telecommunications Minister D.M. Jayaratne’s recent suggestion that Wickremesinghe be named prime minister. However, this is probably not a serious proposal that has the President’s backing. We think it unlikely Rajapaksa will bypass his party loyalists to appoint opposition leader Wickremesinghe as Prime Minister — which would put Ranil next in line under the constitution to succeed the president. Wickremesinghe will almost certainly react to senior UNP talent breaking party ranks by moving to exclude them from the party. However, the dissidents can appeal an expulsion to the Supreme Court, which has invalidated several expulsions in the past. This will keep the pot boiling for at least several weeks after the crossovers happen.”

Below we give the relevant part of the confidential cable;

Other cables related to the UNP leadership crisis;

WikiLeaks: Karu said he and his colleagues will be named ministers

WikiLeaks:Since Karu had openly expressed a lack of confidence in Ranil, resuming deputy party leader was not likely to come up

WikiLeaks: President Rajapaksa is courting the UNP – Karu to US

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000152

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS
MCC FOR S GROFF, D NASSIRY, E BURKE AND F REID

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/19/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL CE
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: PRESIDENT STRUGGLING IN ATTEMPT TO WOO
CROSSOVERS

REF: A) COLOMBO 130 B) COLOMBO 115 (AND PREVIOUS)

Classified By: Ambassador Robert O. Blake, Jr., for reasons 1.4(b,d).

¶1. (C) SUMMARY:  President Rajapaksa has yet to announce his
anticipated cabinet reshuffle, leading to confusion and
speculation in the media and among our political contacts.
The Rajapaksa team is struggling to eke out a bare majority
of the parliamentary seats.  Both the governing Sri Lanka
Freedom Party (SLFP) and major opposition United National
Party (UNP) face serious internal rifts as some UNP
dissidents prepare to take government ministerial posts.
Foreign Minister Samaraweera has come out publicly against
the crossover strategy, and in favor of continuing
cooperation with the UNP under the MoU.  The Marxist,
Sinhalese chauvinist JVP has threatened to end its support
from outside the government for Rajapaksa if the government
takes in three "federalist" UNP MPs.  The Sri Lanka Muslim
Congress (SLMC) is continuing discussions with the government
on cooperation, with some of its members complaining of
intense pressure to fall in line.  End summary.

UNP DISSIDENTS RESIST RANIL'S OVERTURES
---------------------------------------

¶2. (C) President Rajapaksa's cabinet restructuring, expected
during the astrologically "auspicious time" between January
23-25, has yet to be announced, leading to rampant rumors and
confusion across the political spectrum.  Initially, most
analysts expected a group of "reformist" dissidents in the
major opposition United National Party (UNP) to accept
ministerial posts, thereby endangering the MoU between the
UNP and the governing Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP).
Currently, sources in the UNP tell us less than 12 party
members will take cabinet positions, while many remain
unsatisfied with the portfolios offered.

¶3. (C) A meeting between UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe and
his intra-party critic Karu Jayasuriya was unsuccessful in
resolving the UNP rift (ref A).  Embassy has learned that
Jayasuriya's supporters (including his son-in-law, Navin
Dissanayake) put pressure on Karu not to cave in to
Wickremesinghe's "delaying tactics" (promises on overdue
party reforms).  The dissident group -- at least those in
line for ministerial posts -- are reportedly insisting the
crossovers go forward as planned.  However, the would-be
defectors have failed to deliver enough colleagues to assure
the present and his camp a workable majority, making the
entire move a questionable exercise for the Rajapaksa team.

TRIAL BALLOON FOR RANIL AS PM PROBABLY NOT SERIOUS
--------------------------------------------- -----

¶4. (C) Adding to the confusion over the UNP's position, on
January 24 papers quoted UNP Secretary-General Tissa
Attanayake as welcoming Telecommunications Minister D.M.
Jayaratne's recent suggestion that Wickremesinghe be named
prime minister.  However, this is probably not a serious
proposal that has the President's backing.  We think it
unlikely Rajapaksa will bypass his party loyalists to appoint
opposition leader Wickremesinghe as Prime Minister -- which
would put Ranil next in line under the constitution to
succeed the president.  Wickremesinghe will almost certainly
react to senior UNP talent breaking party ranks by moving to
exclude them from the party.  However, the dissidents can
appeal an expulsion to the Supreme Court, which has
invalidated several expulsions in the past.  This will keep
the pot boiling for at least several weeks after the
crossovers happen.
¶8. (C) COMMENT: President Rajapaksa's strategy of assuring
himself a majority by wooing crossovers and reshaping his
cabinet has stirred up a hornet's nest.  Rather than
proceeding smoothly by welcoming in the disaffected UNPers,
large swathes within each of the major political parties now
feel alienated.  The President and his senior advisor Basil
Rajapaksa will continue to use a mix of threats, persuasion,
and enticements to cobble together a bare majority in
parliament.  Not to succeed at this point would send a signal
of weakness and result in a great loss of face.  But support
for the President will be brittle at best, not least because
of the rough tactics Basil has tried to employ.  The most
likely casualty of the current political tempest is the
SLFP-UNP MoU, which held out the prospect of a broadly based
"southern consensus" on a devolution proposal to drive the
peace process forward.
BLAKE