6 October, 2026

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Sri Lanka Is Recovering. Are Sri Lankans?

By Vishwamithra –

“The problem is not how to wipe out all differences, but how to unite with all differences intact.” ~Ravindranath Tagore

At this very moment, somewhere in Sri Lanka—a plantation line-room, a remote village, an urban slum or a household still recovering from economic collapse—a mother may be holding a newborn child and wondering whether she will be able to feed it adequately tomorrow.

That child knows nothing about the IMF.

It knows nothing about debt restructuring, primary surpluses, foreign reserves, fiscal consolidation or sovereign creditworthiness.

It certainly knows nothing about the NPP, the old political establishment or the historic expectations that carried Anura Kumara Dissanayake to power.

The child simply needs to be fed.

And therein lies perhaps the most unforgiving test of the AKD presidency.

Sri Lanka has unquestionably travelled some distance from the catastrophe of 2022. By August 2026, official foreign reserves had risen to $6.9 billion, debt restructuring was largely completed, banks remained well capitalized, and fiscal performance during the first half of the year was strong. These are not imaginary achievements. They matter enormously to a country that only four years ago could not reliably provide fuel, medicine or electricity.

But there is another Sri Lanka.

And governments ignore that Sri Lanka at their peril.

The IMF now says roughly one-quarter of the population remains below the poverty line. The World Food Program puts the figure at about 26 percent and reports that 39 percent of households have inadequate diets.

Those figures should disturb anyone tempted to declare the economic crisis over.

You Cannot Feed a Child with a Primary Surplus.

Economic stability is indispensable.

But stability is not prosperity.

A recovering balance sheet at the Treasury does not automatically put protein on a child’s plate. Rising foreign reserves do not automatically increase the real wage of a laborer. Successful debt restructuring does not necessarily tell the mother standing before the vegetable stall whether she can afford dinner.

That distinction must become central to the economic philosophy of the AKD administration.

Sri Lanka’s tragedy did not begin with AKD. He inherited an economy devastated by decades of fiscal irresponsibility, unsustainable debt, policy blunders, weak institutions and a political culture in which the state was too frequently treated as an instrument of patronage.

It would therefore be intellectually dishonest to attribute today’s poverty entirely to the present government.

But inheritance cannot remain an explanation forever.

Eventually government becomes ownership.

AKD now carries that burden.

The World Bank warned before the latest shocks that Sri Lanka’s recovery remained uneven and incomplete: poverty was still roughly twice its 2019 level, output remained below its 2018 level, and food prices had remained painfully high.

That is the economy ordinary Sri Lankans experience.

The Revolution Must Reach the Kitchen

The NPP came to power promising something much larger than competent bookkeeping.

It represented, to many voters, a repudiation of an entire political culture.

For decades Sri Lankan governments perfected the language of development while allowing patronage, corruption, waste and political privilege to flourish. Governments changed. Ministers changed. Slogans changed. But the citizen remained at the bottom of the pyramid.

AKD’s political project will ultimately be judged by whether that pyramid changes. Anti-corruption investigations matter. Institutional reform matters. Fiscal discipline matters. Recovering stolen or misused public resources matters. But none of them, by themselves, constitute social transformation.

The revolution must eventually reach the kitchen.

If a mother cannot afford sufficient nutrition for her child, she will not experience macroeconomic stability as liberation.

The IMF Is Not the Enemy—Nor Is It the Government.

Sri Lanka’s political debate too often retreats into convenient caricature. One side behaves as though every IMF prescription represents foreign oppression. Another behaves as though satisfying an IMF program automatically constitutes successful government. Neither proposition is adequate.

After bankruptcy, fiscal discipline was unavoidable. A state cannot indefinitely spend money it does not possess, borrow money it cannot repay and subsidize everything while collecting insufficient revenue.

AKD appears to understand that reality.

The IMF’s September assessment acknowledged strong fiscal performance and improving reserves while simultaneously warning that Sri Lanka must strengthen social safety nets and make its tax system fairer and more efficient.

That qualification is crucial.

Fiscal discipline without social protection can become cruelty dressed as economics. Social spending without fiscal discipline can become tomorrow’s bankruptcy disguised as compassion. The difficult task of government is to achieve both.

What Does Recovery Mean?

Sri Lanka should therefore begin asking a more demanding question. Not merely: Is the economy recovering?

But: Who is recovering?

If GDP rises while a child remains malnourished, something remains unfinished. If reserves increase while a plantation family cannot obtain adequate nutrition, recovery remains incomplete. If international creditors regain confidence while working families continue reducing the quality of their meals, the statistics and the lived experience are telling different stories. WFP currently reports that nearly one-third of Sri Lankan children under five are malnourished.

That should be treated not merely as a welfare statistic but as an economic emergency. A malnourished child may become an inadequately developed adult. Poor nutrition affects learning, productivity and human potential. A country that underfeeds its children is borrowing against its own future.

AKD’s Real Opportunity

And this is where AKD possesses an opportunity his predecessors repeatedly squandered. He does not need to promise paradise. Sri Lankans have heard enough promises. He needs to demonstrate that disciplined government can produce tangible improvements in ordinary life.

The administration has expanded targeted measures, including Aswesuma-related support, and the IMF records temporary assistance for vulnerable households following recent shocks. It also notes, however, earlier administrative delays in bringing some beneficiaries into the program.

The lesson is obvious.

Social protection cannot merely exist in a Budget document. It must reach the correct household, at the correct time, in an amount capable of making a meaningful difference. And welfare alone is insufficient. The lasting escape from poverty comes through productive employment, education, nutrition, investment, entrepreneurship and economic growth.

A government cannot permanently subsidize a population into prosperity. It must create the conditions in which people can build prosperity themselves.

The Child Is the Ultimate Balance Sheet

There is an extraordinary irony in discussing all this in the age of Artificial Intelligence.

Sri Lankan children can potentially gain access to knowledge that would have been unimaginable even a generation ago. A child in Monaragala, Jaffna, Hatton or Hambantota could theoretically have access to the same reservoirs of human knowledge as a child in London or California.

But technology cannot democratize opportunity if poverty denies the child nutrition, electricity, connectivity or education.

Before Artificial Intelligence can expand the mind, somebody must feed the brain.

That should become part of AKD’s definition of development.

The true balance sheet of a nation is not found exclusively in the Central Bank.

It is found in its children.

Are they adequately nourished?

Are they learning?

Can their parents find productive work?

Can illness be treated without destroying a family’s finances?

Can ability overcome birthplace?

These are harder measurements than foreign reserves.

But they are ultimately more important.

AKD inherited a bankrupt country.

History will judge his administration not merely by whether he leaves behind a solvent one, but by whether that solvency begins to change the life of the citizen who endured the bankruptcy.

The mother holding her newborn child does not expect a miracle.

She expects a chance.

And the child asks nothing of ideology.

It does not know whether the government calls itself socialist, progressive, Marxist, social democratic or anything else.

It asks, without words:

Will I be fed?

Will I be educated?

Will my abilities matter more than the circumstances into which I was born?

If the AKD government can progressively answer those questions in the affirmative while preserving the hard-won economic stability Sri Lanka has regained, it will have accomplished something considerably more meaningful than balancing the books.

If it cannot, economic recovery will remain what it has too often been in Sri Lanka: an impressive collection of numbers that the poorest citizen cannot eat.

*The writer can be reached at vishwamithra1984@gmail.com

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