21 November, 2018

Blog

A Genuinely Credible Estimate

By Kath Noble

Kath Noble

Last week, I discussed a report on civilian deaths in the final phase of the war called ‘The Numbers Game‘.

As I said, it shows how the most popular method of estimating the body count – calculating the discrepancy between the population figures given by local officials at various times from October 2008 and the number of IDPs registered in June 2009 – falls apart when one compares the population figures. They simply can’t all be accurate or even vaguely close to the mark.

But this approach opens up the possibility of much higher totals, so people like Frances Harrison are still perfectly happy to describe its results as ‘credible’.

The author notes that there may well be good reason to doubt the credibility of the other method – based on specific reports of casualties as recorded by the network of informants set up by the United Nations – since at least some people may have died without being seen or without their death being recorded. Not all bodies would have been transported to medical facilities. The author says that this was most likely to have been the case in January and February, when the population was still quite dispersed, and also in May, as fighting became very intense.

To get over this problem, the report works from data on the number of injuries, on the basis that the injured would have all sought help.

The calculation is not straightforward, and readers interested in making their own assessment of the assumptions made should refer to the full document, which is available online. However, since going through a 150 page report with its numerous linked references is not likely to be everybody’s idea of a day well spent, I shall attempt to summarise.

The author starts by estimating ratios of the number of deaths to the number of injuries during the various stages of the final phase. The calculations begin from January 20th, when the Government first declared a No Fire Zone, and it is assumed that the situation became worse as time went on until the end of the conflict on May 19th, in particular with the Army’s incursion into the No Fire Zone on April 20th and from May 9th as the operation to capture the No Fire Zone commenced. The author uses a ratio of dead to injured from serious injuries of between 40% and 50% – worse than the 33% to 50% range that was accepted by the Panel of Experts appointed by the United Nations Secretary General – and a ratio of between 20% and 40% for lesser injuries, based on the findings of the University Teachers for Human Rights from their interviews with eyewitnesses.

The resulting average ratios of dead to injured range from 60% in January to 90% in May.

These estimates are then combined with another conclusion of the University Teachers for Human Rights, that at least 50% of the injured were shipped by the ICRC between February 10th and May 9th, to give the totals shown in the following table.

Figures for the periods up to February 10th and after May 9th were calculated by comparing eyewitness accounts from various sources.

The author checks this approach with three case studies – a report by the head of the TRO about shelling on March 9th and 10th, the Army’s incursion into the No Fire Zone on April 20th as described by the TamilNet correspondent and staff of the ICRC, and interviews by the international media of local doctors when a mortar hit the admissions ward of a makeshift hospital on May 12th.

In all of them, calculating the number of deaths from the number of injuries results in overestimation.

When compared to other estimates of the total body count at various points in the final phase, this method also comes up with higher figures.

As the author notes, this makes sense because we are now including people who died unobserved.

The total body count is around 15,000.

Although the report does not attempt a breakdown according to perpetrator, it reminds us that both sides were responsible.

It points out that this does not mean that both sides had equally noble intentions, and its other important contribution to the debate on the final phase of the war is what it has to say about the targeting of civilians. The LTTE did it openly and is condemned for it by all other than its most ardent supporters in the diaspora, but what about the Army? The Panel of Experts appointed by the United Nations Secretary General did not give much credence to the Government’s claims of a ‘humanitarian operation’, which is not very surprising given that they were accompanied by efforts to persuade the world that not even a single civilian had died at the hands of the military. But that does not mean that its intention was to kill as many people as possible, or even that it was absolutely careless of how many deaths occurred.

Everybody accepts that individual soldiers risked their lives to help civilians to escape. It is also commonly acknowledged that more than 100,000 people got out of the No Fire Zone because of the Army’s incursion on April 20th, which cost numerous military lives yet need not have been attempted if the objective was purely to finish off the LTTE.

Still, following intensive campaigning about ‘genocide’, the United Nations has now decided that evidence from satellite images suggests that civilians were indeed targeted.

The report claims that this is not honest.

It analyses the available satellite images to arrive at a number of very interesting conclusions. It says that the vast majority of craters in the No Fire Zone that appeared in the final days of the conflict are from mortars, which are not classified as heavy weapons, requiring the Army to get closer to the fighting and well within range of the artillery and other munitions of the LTTE – it reported the deaths of 40 to 60 soldiers a day from such attacks. At the same time, the number of casualties from mortar attacks is generally expected to be lower, since the explosive yield and barrel velocities of the shells are lower. The author also draws attention to the clear difference between the state of the No Fire Zone and that of the area surrounding Anandapuram, where the last major engagement between the Army and the LTTE took place, resulting in the deaths of many of its senior leaders. This demonstrates what ‘carpet bombing’ really looks like.

The analysis shows that contrary to the assertion that the Army continually adjusted its batteries to target the No Fire Zone, what it was actually doing was supporting its advancing forward defence lines, while the vast majority of its fire bearings missed concentrated pockets of IDPs.

It also notes the way in which research commissioned by Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch from the American Association for the Advancement of Science following the initiation of the operation to capture the No Fire Zone on May 9th, in which there was talk of indiscriminate shelling, is now completely ignored because it did not support this conclusion.

Unfortunately, this is almost certain to be the fate of ‘The Numbers Game’ too.

*Kath Noble may be contacted at kathnoble99@gmail.com

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Latest comments

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    This article gives the impression that it is written to downplay the deliberate and targeted killing of civilians by the Sri Lankan Military.

    I am more and more inclined to believe the words of a famous independent journalist John Pilger:

    “Many journalists now are no more than channelers and echoers of what Orwell called the official truth. They simply cipher and transmit lies.”

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      Nothing other than about a million Sinhala deaths will satisfy you, will it Thiru.

      You have still not learnt your lesson.
      Bring it on,mudesi.

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    The issue can be settled if the GoSL conducts some proper exercise in counting. Surely it is important to know how many people were killed? They were citizens after all.

    Instead the GoSL, obfuscates, prevaricates and spends all its time trying to cover up facts.

    What are they trying to hide? +

  • 0
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    A genuine effort by a seemingly honest, unbiased journalist in search of truth. Refreshing to note that there is a foreign journalist who is not associated with or, on the payroll of the murderous, terrorist outfit the LTTE. This is a lesson for Ms Harrison in objectivity and honesty in reporting, to consider loss of life as serious, and not something to sensationalise to gain fame and possibly rewards from a well funded terrorist organisation.

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    Is there a link to the original report please?

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      Apparently links are banned on CT!

      Read comment policy – CT
      https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/comments-policy-2/
      7. We will remove any posts that are obviously commercial or otherwise spam-like. Our aim is that this site should provide a space for people to interact with our content and each other, and we actively discourage commercial entities passing themselves off as individuals, in order to post advertising material or links. This may also apply to people or organisations who frequently post propaganda or external links without adding substantively to the quality of the discussion on the website.

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    Thiru,

    “Many journalists now are no more than channelers and echoers of what Orwell called the official truth. They simply cipher and transmit lies.”

    Well said.

    However, in the absence of facts and proof, every lie is equally viable.

    So, it could be 15,000 civilians killed.
    So, it could be 45,000 civilians killed.
    So, it could be 60,000 civilians killed.
    So, it could be 75,000 civilians killed.
    So, it could be 120,000 civilians killed.

    So, it could be 150,000 civilians killed.
    So, it could be 200,000 civilians killed.
    So, it could be 250,000 civilians killed.
    So, it could be 275,000 civilians killed.
    So, it could be 300,000 civilians killed.

    Do the 3rd grade Arithmetic.

    1. How many were there? N

    2. How many were rescued ? R

    3. How many were killed? K

    4. How Many Escaped? E

    5. How Many Died of Natural Causes? N

    Then the Answer is:

    = N – R -K -E -N

    • 0
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      Correction,

      5. How Many Died of Natural Causes? D

      Then the Answer is:

      = N – R -K -E -D

    • 0
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      Amarasiri

      Please be patient, let’s wait for an impartial international investigation to find out rigorously the exact details of the number of civilians killed, rapes and torture in custody, and killing of the surrendered besides other heinous crimes.

      We’ll accept their findings, OK.

      Thiru

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    Kath Noble who was previously an ardent supporter of the criminal Rajapaksa regime who temporarily became an opponent of it but now appears to be changing her tune and defending the regime by taking the regime’s side in one of the most important accusations against it – the mass murder of tens of thousands of innocent Tamil civilians.

    Instead of wasting her energies on the numbers she should have concentrated on the war crimes committed by the ‘most disciplined army in the world’, the Sri Lankan army, during the war. The summary executions, the mass rapes, torture and murder of captured and surrendered LTTE cadres and others suspected of LTTE sympathy are major crimes against humanity. Why don’t you try and defend the Rajapaksa military from these heinous crimes Kathy?

    I always suspected Kath Noble’s intentions when she cunningly changed her views about the Rajapaksa regime from being an enthusiastic supporter to a voiciferous opponent of it. Like politicians, she changed her views and allegiances depending on which way the wind blows. Shameless behaviour.

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      Piranha,

      I agree with most of your views. Nowadays it very difficult
      to find genuine truthful journalists. Almost all of them are embedded.
      They know which side the bread is buttered.

      Thiru

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    You see by the comments that any attempt to get the right ansewr is not sufficient unless it fits in with the assumptions of the Tamil Diaspora or the Other side.
    The American Physical Society did an honest, objective technical analysis and unfortunately it did not fit in with the pore-conceived answer of the Human Rights lobby which desperately needs large kill numbers in every disaster country for them to exist and get support money.

    The western agencies and the Tamil disapora WANT to exaggerate the numbers. Most of the people were killed by the Tigers during Eelam War iV, as they were held the Tigers as human shields. The sampanthan’s did not attempt to help release the people, although Noel Nadesan and other honest tamils wrote demanding that Prabhakaran release the human shield. Finally it was the army that breached the wall and allowed the people to stream out in the IDP camps

    We tamils living in the south don’t want this bull shit. We want to co-exist. We have NO USE for Tamil homelands, or provincial councils in the North designated for Tamils etc.

    Human Rights lobby desperately needs large kill numbers in every disaster country for them to exist and get support money.
    For example, Amnesty International in Canada joined hands with the Canadian Tamil Group (originally the WTF that was banned in Canada for its links with the LTTE) and collected money from marches etc. Also, the same organization gave outright gifts of $50,000 per shot. So Amnesty has to play the tune of its paymaster.
    Last year, the amnesty executive in the USA was also a person seconded from the Pentagon. This means AI is not an independent organization any more, but does the bidding of the US govt. Madeleine Albright (Secy of state during Irak war who justified civilian killings as unavoidable `collateral’) was the AI lead speaker may 2012!!!

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      “We tamils living in the south don’t want this bull shit. We want to co-exist. We have NO USE for Tamil homelands, or provincial councils in the North designated for Tamils etc.”

      Reactions from Aney, Anpu, Usha, Agnes, Dev and all the usual suspects please.

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        what prof do you have this guy is actually a Tamil?

        Why is an Irishman commenting on local affairs? I thought there was enough trouble for you guys with your failing economy and church abuse to deal with?
        As the president has said, we the locals will deal with it, this is about OUR sovereignty

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          “Why is an Irishman commenting on local affairs? I thought there was enough trouble for you guys with your failing economy and church abuse to deal with?”

          This Irishman has been condemning child abuse and the greed of the Irish for years. He respects the sovereignty of the country in which he has lived for eleven years. He is frequently vilified for NOT telling your president what to do.

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            This Irishman has no standing in his country. He picks the winning side in an alien country to align himself with those in power. A shameless carpet bagger.

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              Get it right. He has no standing in ANY country.He is a total failure anywhere. Not worth wasting your time on him. Ignore the bastard.

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    Every one plays numbers game according to their perceived assumptions to suit their objectives. This is another attempt by a foreign journalist who may be on the pay list of the current ruling regime. Why this journalist is interested in doing a research to find out the number of death? Is she a qualified scientific social scientist to carry out a research? What was the motive? Is it to find the truth or to prove that the Sri Lankan military did not target intentionally no fire zone?

    This is an outcome of a war between Sri Lanka military (100% Sinhala)and Tamil Eelam military LTTE(100% Tamil). The motive of the LTTE is to liberate Tamils and their traditional homeland from occupied Sinhala Military which is historically against to Tamils. There are proven evidences to show that Sri Lanka military was directly or indirectly responsible for large scale massacres of Tamils. Even during the last phase of the war, Srilanka intentionally maintained that there were only 70,000 Tamils in Vanni area. The food, medicine supply was intentionally limited to cause death by hunger.
    The government and its military intention is very clear that is: elimination of Tamils from Sri Lanka through all means. So, what happened here is genocide.

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      It is said by “Ajith’ that The motive of the LTTE is to liberate Tamils and their traditional homeland from occupied .
      The Tamils’ traditional homeland is EVERYWHERE in LANKA.
      Prabhakaran killed MORE TAMILS than any body even from the time of Ellalan and Dutugemunu. Prabhakaraan, an uneducated violent kind, killed the Tamil leaders (Amirthalingam, Canagaratnam etc) and usurped power. Prabhakaran had NO LEGITIMACY. He held NO election.

      The small percentage of Tamils who lived in the North and East
      in the old days had to face Malaria while the rich Tamils lived in Colombo or other southern or up-country cities. Those fat-cat tamils pitted the poor Tamils of the North and East (about 7 % of the population) against a huge majority (about 70%) of a factor of ten. An act of criminal irresponsibility that we lay on the heads of the idiots who pushed the Vaddukkoddai resolution claiming that they are going to build a Tamil Eelam homeland. We still have dilued people like Ajith, probabaly living in a rich home in Colombo and owning land in the North, worked by poor “low-caste tamils”?

      Homeland – BULL SHIT மலம். குப்பை எடுக் கிறவன். A good part of my own relatives got killed by this idiotic politics of the TULF that went about saying that they are “ready for state terror” because they had the “boys” trained in India.

      The Tamils started to get annihilated, and even the next generation of tamils was annihilated by Prabhakaran who kidnapped them and made them into child soldiers. Luckily, Prabhakaran was eliminated in 2009 May. Thank the ARMY for the good deed done to the Tamils.
      Otherwise, the remaining Tamils in the North would have also got whittled away, while the Fat-Cat Tamils live abroad with their kids, kith and kin, and continue to extort money for Eelam.

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      She is an Oxford graduate in Mathamatics. Are you ?

    • 0
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      She didn’t do the research, Mutt!

  • 0
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    Good analytical article that replaces emotion, prejudice and anonymous rumours with reason, analysis and facts.

  • 0
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    once in a while kath publishes an article that she actually did some research on .. lol .

    • 0
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      Don’t blame her for the numbers. Once again readers are confused by the concept of “explanation”. Kath is reviewing the IDAG-S publication. She did not invent the figures.

  • 0
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    Instead of speculating on the motivations of the author, why not focus on the mathematics? Or is getting at the empirical facts far less important than the propaganda?

    • 0
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      Are you any different?
      See your comment on 3rd July to Kath’s writings
      Dayan’s comment !!!
      ———-
      This may be Kath Noble’s most important article yet, which is saying quite a bit.

      A non-Sri Lankan, Oxford-trained mathematician, Kath’s lucidly critical exegesis of ‘The Numbers Game’ dis-aggregation promises to get us closer to the empirical truth than we have ever been. I eagerly await the next part, and Kath’s own estimate of the figures.
      ———–

      She gives numbers that you favour so hence she is “better” ??

      • 0
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        You are absolutely right :)

        DJ praises when contents favour to his narrow thinking. Else, he criticises it to death, but always passing good words to MR whatever the great mistake MR is upto. This is becoming clear in DJ^s genetics.

        Why DJ SEEMS to have no concerns on the CORE issues such as LAW and ORDER and Corruption in the country today that has reached to the appalling levels ?

        What is the difference between the bunch that enjoy the perks being in CMBO and the attitudes of DJ ? Is there any difference at all ?

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      Dr Dayan Jayatilleka,

      A mathematical model is as good as the assumptions made.
      Therefore simply concentrating on mathematics is meaningless.

      Motivations of authors are important, as in today’s world most of the journalists and writers project the “official truth”.
      Only a tiny minority tells the world the truth, like Manning, Snowden and others.

      More important than the numbers and the motivations of the writers, it is the intention of the state, rulers and the armed forces involved in the killing that matters, especially in view of the regime’s claim of zero tolerance of civilian causalities during the war.

      Instead of the so-called mathematical experts and laymen arguing in the dark about the killing, why don’t we demand an impartial international investigation into the matter? Isn’t the fair for everybody, more so to the victims?

      Experts in war crimes, genocide and other pertinent matters are out there since 1945 to evaluate precisely as to what happened in cases like this. Let’s leave it to them.

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    The Srebrenica massacre had 8000 killed and about 5 injured who survived.Then according to kath noble if the injured are 5 then the dead must be ten.Is this woman so stupid as to think others are also stupid like her.It is a joke to try to find out the dead through the number of injured.What about those injured who could nver ask for help like those that got buried alive by bulldozes.Cicumstances will vary from place to place where the massacres took place and we have to look at each spot individually.for example the spot where issaipriya was raped and murdered had a lot of dead bodies with her and obviously nobody would have been injured only because it was a systematic massacre.

    The UN report says upto 40000 dead.It is now upto the GOSL to disprove that figure,not using kath noble like this in a stupid manner paying her some bucks,but in proper manner with facts and figures.If they can’t do that allow a independent international investigation.Since they have done neither so far,then the 40000 figure will stand.

    The reason why it is upto the GOSL to disprove the figure is because it was the GOSL that forced the news blackout when the massacres were taking place.So the onus of proof falls onto the GOSL because if the news blackout was not there we won’t talking here about whether the 40000 is true or false.We would have known what the figure was because the journalists would have told the world about it.Also the armd forces would have been careful not to kill unnecessarily because evrything would have been transparent and visble to the world outside.

    I’am afraid mahinda rajapakshe and gothabaya rajapakshe will join radovan karadzic and ratko mladic in prison unless they die of natural causes or are killed before that.The north will also separate like Bosnia because of this massacre.The stupidity of these two in facilitating that through this unnecessary massacre will go down in srilankan history as one of the biggest blunders made by their leaders.The second biggest blunder by a sinhala leader was when JRJ allowed the 1983 riots.The best joke was Gota critisising JRJ about the 1983 riots when he himself has committed a bigger blunder in 2009.

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      Shankar wrote: “The UN report says upto 40000 dead.It is now upto the GOSL to disprove that figure…”

      Neither the Darusman nor the Petrie reports claimed that upto 40,000 people died in the last stages of the war. I suggest you read the reports. They both merely wrote that “credible sources” estimated that upto 40,000 in the case of Darusman, and upto 70,000 in the case of Petrie, “may” have died in the final stages of the war. Neither report stated who those “credible sources” were. In other words they were estimates from anonymous sources with no explanation given as to why the authors of the reports were not able to name the sources of the estimates or the rationale behind them.

      In the absence of further corroborating evidence anonymous allegations are worthless and unreliable and are very poor reflections on their authors’ competences. Why could they not tell even the United Nations who those unnamed credible sources are? Perhaps they don’t exist!

      It is for these reasons no United Nations body has ever given serious consideration to the possibility of any sort of international investigation into large scale killings based on those reports.

      Neither the Sri Lankan government nor anyone else has to disprove anonymous and uncorroborated allegations such as the claims of 40,000 or more civilian casualties without any evidence to support those claims. As always when it comes to evidence, it is up to those who make the allegations to provide it. That is called due process of law.

      Also there was no news “blackout” as you claim, there were news reports from journalists every day in the Sri Lankan and Indian media during the lsat stages of the war, as you will discover if you investigate. And even if there had been a news blackout that would not prove anything in itself without further concrete evidence.

      What the report discussed by Kath Noble does it to examine what concrete evidence there is that could throw further light on any of this. They say there is a certain amount of concrete evidence available, but none of that supports the anonymous so-called credible claims of mass killings made by Darusman, Petrie and others.

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        “Neither the Darusman nor the Petrie reports claimed that upto 40,000 people died in the last stages of the war. I suggest you read the reports. They both merely wrote that “credible sources” estimated”

        candidly,with my limited grasp of the english language,i believe that when they say credible sources estimated,it means that the UN believes it and are claiming that figure.The word”credible” is the key to their way of thinking on the matter.We can try to twist and turn the words for all its worth but the message conveyed in the mind of the readers is what matters and its impact.In this case for most except for those like you who are desperatly trying to defend the indefensible,the message is loud and clear that upto 40000 were killed.The word “upto is also important because they have kept the door open for less too.

        So what you should have done is focus on “less” than “credible sources” and kick an own goal.

        —–

        “In the absence of further corroborating evidence”

        It has still not gone to the hague no?be a bit patient will you.

        Let the court proceedings start and mahinda and gota indicted and plenty of evidence will start coming out.Now it is coming out in the public arena little by little in the form of videos and pictures ,not because there isn’t much more but because those who have the evidence decide to put it out little by little to keep the fires burning.They might decide to release a little more when prince charles is shaking mahinda’s hand at the CHOGM.He will curse why he came there.

        In case you did not know there are also US has satellite images and evidence that they have not released and i’am sure the rajapakshe’s enemies in srilanka army will also have some more photographs taken on their mobiles to be released as and when they choose to do so.

        Why don’t you ask mahinda,if he is innocent of any crimes against humanity,to issue a public challenge to indict him and begin court proceedings in the hague and bring out the evidence.
        —–

        “It is for these reasons no United Nations body has ever given serious consideration to the possibility of any sort of international investigation into large scale killings based on those reports.”

        International human rights bodies are clamouring for the UN to sanction a independent international investigation into war crimes and crimes against humanity.India is blocking it,but it is of no use because it will succumb to domestic and international pressure,especially congress is kicked out in the elections in 2014.So be patient,a UN resolution will be done and enforced eventually.
        —-
        “Neither the Sri Lankan government nor anyone else has to disprove anonymous and uncorroborated allegations such as the claims of 40,000 or more civilian casualties without any evidence to support those claims. As always when it comes to evidence, it is up to those who make the allegations to provide it. That is called due process of law.”

        In this case the prosecution can just say that due to the news blackout enforced by the GOSL while conducting the alleged atrocities,it is upto the GOSL to disprove the figures given from the credible sources.The GOSL has only itself to blame if the due process of the law cannot be applied to their advantage due to their own actions.Innocent until proved guilty is not meant to protect those who try to use that legal clause fro their own benefit at the beginning itself to commit crimes.It is not meant as a legal loophole to be used by criminals,but a genuine protection for the innocent.That is why the jury normally deliberates and reaches a verdict on a “reasonable doubht” priciple and not a ‘no doubhts” that a person is guilty.

        The jury therefore will take into consideration that a news blackout could have been enforced in order to suppress evidence for committing atrocities,unless the GOSL can prove it was absolutely necessary, and will be more than happy to come to a verdict of guilty based on circumstantial evidence.

        Do you think that every tom,dick and harry can decide to commit a crime and take measures before that to suppress the evidence before they do the crime and get away with it.The jury will always look at why you behaved in the way you did and take that into consideration that you behaved like a guilty person would behave and convict you on other circumstantial evidence provided.In other words the evidence provided to them would get more weightage due to the fact that you covered up evidence.

        ———–
        “Also there was no news “blackout” as you claim, there were news reports from journalists every day in the Sri Lankan and Indian media during the lsat stages of the war, as you will discover if you investigate”

        can you name them and their articles?These are not my questions but what a court will ask of the GOSL to provide if they say the same as you did.They will also cross examine the reporters you claim to have been there as to whether they were on the ground at that time or whether relying on credible sourcs or whether they were merely relaying back what was provided to them by the GOSL.Their reputability and international standing will also be taken into account by the courts.Though many international agencies like the CNN and BBC were clamouring for coverage they were all asked to piss off by Gota.
        —–

        “And even if there had been a news blackout that would not prove anything in itself without further concrete evidence.”

        I think i have covered that before about the legal implications of suppressing evidence or trying to make it impossible to ascertain by the alleged perpetrators.It is like getting rid of the only way you could be believed when you claim that you are innocent.Transparency would have worked for you if you were innocent,but if you yourself got rid of it then whose fault is it,the prosecuters or the defendents?
        ———

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          With respect, this is a long and detailed response, but there is not a single piece of evidence cited or referrenced to back up any of your arguments.

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            Candidly,didn’t you get the point?Evidence should be provided by gota to disprove the UN report upto 40000 figure,because by enforcing a news blackout he gave up the only avenue that he had to show the world that such a massacre did not take place.

            When you behave like someone who intends to do a crime and cover it up,of course people will think you are guilty of it.

            onus of proof and providing evidence that he is not guilty of massacring upto 40000 people falls on his shoulders now,not the prosecutors who will find it easy to convict him based on witness testimony and films and images etc and other such circumstantial evidence and the courts will allow it,because nobody was allowed to be on the ground at the time it took allegedly took place.I will be very happy for him if he could prove that it was not 40000 but for example 20000,because then it would be 20000 less people who died.We should all be happy for that.In fact i don’t want him to be convicted,because i believe that a truth and reconciliation commission as in south africa is the way to go,but if he cooked his own goose by trying to be too smart what can i do about it.

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              and Candidly,don’t forget the 330000 people who were on the Government Agent’s records who whom she was providing food before the alleged massacre took place and they were herded into the ‘safe’ zone by the present army commander himself.Finally the number coming out of these unsafe zone was 292000.Did the 38000 balance evaporate into thin air?If you want evidence you can start with that then the videos of the carnage,then eyewitness statements,satellite images that the US will provide and photographs and the list will go on and on,all circumstantial evidence but more than enough to arrive at a estimated figure based on the fact that independent observers to the carnage was not allowed by the GOSL for verification of the actual figure.

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              Thank you for your evidence free reply. I think you have made your position clear: never let the lack of evidence stand in the way of a firmly held opinion.

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              It is not my opinion.It is the opinion of the UN.If you beg to differ,you are welcome to take it up with them.Ask them to bring it on,an independent international investigation so that the sqeaky clean image of this regime will not be tarnished in future.

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              “onus of proof and providing evidence that he is not guilty of massacring upto 40000 people falls on his shoulders now,”

              Only if evidence of his guilt has been presented by the prosecution. So far there is no such evidence.

              “he prosecutors who will find it easy to convict him based on witness testimony and films and images etc and other such circumstantial evidence”

              Please quote the witness testimony, films, and images that prove that 40,000 were deliberately killed.

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          Candidly,as for evidence,you seem to be a woman who will only be satisfied with what you see with your own eyes.Unfortunately due o the news blackout an independent verification of the body count could not be made.So your keeping on harping on it is aiding and abetting the perpertrators of the massacre who wanted it to be exactly that way.locals like you might help the perpertrator in this fashion,but i doubht international justice systems will.

          If you are panting and panting for evidence,why don’t you look at the facts i have given in my comments above about the government agents figures of 330000 who went into the unsafe zone and 292000 that came out of it.Isn’t that evidence enough and is the next best thing to a body count?She gave this evidence to the LLRC and they did not dispute it.Why don’t you try to dispute that instead of your monotonous chants.

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          Shankar says
          In this case the prosecution can just say that due to the news blackout enforced by the GOSL while conducting the alleged atrocities,it is upto the GOSL to disprove the figures given from the credible sources.
          ———

          Very interesting interpretation of the Law.

          Can you quote the Rule or a case Law from the ICRC that supports your interpretation?

          Shankar says
          The jury therefore will take into consideration that a news blackout could have been enforced in order to suppress evidence for committing atrocities
          ——–

          Interesting again.

          Can you quote the Rule under which the ICRC conducts a War Crime JURY trial?

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            Off the cuff,the day you are charged in courts you will realise that all your law knowledge can be valueless because perception is what matters.Of course you can argue your case with law points but at the opposite end the judges and the jury are not computers that will just give the verdict based on your law points.They are flesh and blood human beings and perception is what matters in the end.If they feel that you have planned a crime of gigantic proportions and to cover your tracks you have enforced a news blackout,you can holler your law points to kingdom come but you are going to be convicted.I have seen this with my own eyes happening to many people who thought they can be smart using the legal loopholes,but they have been convicted and appeals have not worked because the judges also know the law and are careful about how to circumvent them to give the judgement that they feel you deserve.

            So again i reiterate that best behaviour and perceptions matter and the arrogant behaviour sometimes bordering on the insane of the GOSL is not going to be helpful for their case.You can behave like that in domestic circles and get away with it but when you are dealing with foreigners they are not going to be cowed into submission or tricked into letting you off.

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              Shankar,

              Does that mean you were bluffing when you raised the point of law?

              Are you floundering when you are asked to make good on that bluff?

              You now bring another interpretation of Law that is unique!
              Perception over rides the rule of Law and Evidence.

              Nowhere in the civilised world is perception allowed to take precedence over actual Evidence.
              The ICRC is an institution of the civilised world.

              You say “They are flesh and blood human beings and perception is what matters in the end.If they feel that you have planned a crime of gigantic proportions and to cover your tracks you have enforced a news blackout,you can holler your law points to kingdom come but you are going to be convicted.”

              Appealing to emotion is the hallmark of the weak
              It is specifically to eliminate the human perception factor that there is written law which is carefully worded to eliminate ambiguity.

              You should read up on the Law of Evidence and ICRC procedure before you pontificate on it.

              You further state “I have seen this with my own eyes happening to many people who thought they can be smart”

              Where have you seen this with your own eyes?
              Perhaps you were thinking of Prabahkaran’s Kangaroo Courts or Kangaroo courts elsewhere.

              Were you a judge or a member of the jury in one of them where “FEEL” superseded Justice?

              If you raise a point of Law make sure that you are able to quote the actual law or case history Law otherwise you would just be talking through your hat as you have done in your previous arguments!

              Best Regards
              OTC

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              “Does that mean you were bluffing when you raised the point of law?”

              If yu read again you will notice that it was not a point of law that i raised.The prosecution will say that the defendent has enforced a news blackout in order to carry out the crime in such a manner that others will find it xtremely difficult to get evidence.So the onus will shift to the defendent to disprove the figure,not as a point of law but because of the perception created in the mind of the judges of his guilt due to his actions.

              After that when the prosecution brings out further evidence after evidence,that initial perception that has been planted in the minds of the judges will grow and grow further.They will give more weightage also for that evidence because of the actions of the GOSL in making it impossible to obtain evidence through body counts etc.So what i said is it is in the interest of the defendents to try to disprove the figure given by the prosecuters,not the other way about,because the verdict is all that matters and you should see the faces of the smartasses who thought they had got away due to some legal loopholes when the verdict is read out,and this is not in the prabha/mahinda kangaroo courts you mention,but in western courts.

              What you forget is that the judges also have a duty to dispense justice,they can’t let a murderer go free because he thought he was a smartass who can exploit legal loopholes.You can talk till the cows come home with your legal points because probably you are a lawyer,but you are not living in the real world where members of the public such as us see what goes on in courts.

              Why don’t you remove the judges completely and put a computer up there instead programmed with all the legal points.Then the prosecution puts in their points into the computer and then the defendant does the same and the verdict comes out and everyone goes home happy.No need for any humans to judge anymore.

              Did you ever wonder what is the main difference between a computer and a human doing the same job.Flexibility.

              Recently when a story floated out that obama was injured in a bomb blast in the white house,the share market crashed by billions of dollars for a few minutes and then put back everything.Some people would have made millions while others obviously would have lost the same,because if someone makes money someone else has to lose the identical amount.Those who lost money are the ones who had set up computer programmes that immediately sell off the shares if any adverse things such as bomb blasts take place.Those who made money are the ones who bought into the market when it dropped.Those who did not lose at all are the ones who were fast asleep without relying on computer programmes to automatically buy and sell on their behalf.Got the point.You are dealing with judges not computers.

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              Shankar

              You wrote “If yu read again you will notice that it was not a point of law that i raised.”

              It was an interpretation of the Law of Evidence that you made before and is making again now. Yes there is written Law governing Evidence. I asked you to back it up with the Written Law or Case Law that supports your interpretation.

              You could not do that.
              That Shankar is called Bluffing.

              Before pontificating about the Law, at least read about it lest you look an ignoramus in a public forum.

              You wrote “After that when the prosecution brings out further evidence after evidence,that initial perception that has been planted in the minds of the judges will grow and grow further.They will give more weightage also for that evidence because of the actions of the GOSL in making it impossible to obtain evidence through body counts etc”

              You are contradicting yourself in the same paragraph! If it was IMPOSSIBLE to get evidence how can the prosecution bring out “evidence after evidence”?

              You wrote “What you forget is that the judges also have a duty to dispense justice,they can’t let a murderer go free because he thought he was a smartass who can exploit legal loopholes”

              Again you are Pontificating about something you are totally ignorant about.

              A guiding principle of Law is that it is better to let murderers free due to inadequate evidence than to execute ONE wrongfully convicted innocent person. A famous example is that of O.J. Simpson who was perceived to have murdered his GF.

              Ask yourself why a blindfolded Justitia is shown holding an even scale in one hand and a Sword in the other. That is the UNIVERSAL symbol of Justice. Hope you understand now what Justice represents.

              You wrote “You can talk till the cows come home with your legal points because probably you are a lawyer,but you are not living in the real world where members of the public such as us see what goes on in courts”

              Well you can write till the cows go home but the Law is blind to perceptions you have to produce Evidence that comply with the Law of evidence. Aacharya and Siva Pasupthi are lawyers I am not.

              You wrote “Why don’t you remove the judges completely and put a computer up there instead programmed with all the legal points.Then the prosecution puts in their points into the computer and then the defendant does the same and the verdict comes out and everyone goes home happy.No need for any humans to judge anymore”

              I am sorry to say this but though you may be brilliant in your own field (whatever that may be) you are a total ignoramus about the Law as your responses to my questions prove. You would be better advised to remain silent on matters pertaining the Law or read up about it before you do so.

              We are not discussing computers but the Law and the Law is known to be blind.

              You wrote “Recently when a story floated out that obama was injured in a bomb blast in the white house,the share market crashed by billions of dollars for a few minutes and then put back everything.Some people would have made millions while others obviously would have lost the same,because if someone makes money someone else has to lose the identical amount”

              You are utterly confused
              A Law Court is NOT the Stock Market.
              It does not care whether Obama lives or dies as far as dispensing justice is concerned.

              You wrote “Got the point.You are dealing with judges not computers.”

              Unfortunately, you have not made a point.
              The Judges are bound by the Law (written and case law).
              Like Justitia, they are Blind to anything else but the Law.

              Now instead of going on an on about perceptions and what not, Please Quote the Law that supports your interpretations and indicate where you saw with your own eyes perceptions taking precedence over Evidence.

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              “was an interpretation of the Law of Evidence that you made before and is making again now”

              Can you prove i did that?Please back it up with written law or case law to support your interpretation that my assertion was indeed a interpretation of the law of evidence.
              —-

              “Before pontificating about the Law, at least read about it lest you look an ignoramus in a public forum.”

              It is all about the law for you,while it is all about justice for me and the public who pay for the justice system.If you just like the law want to look like an ass in the public forum,that is your prerogative,not mine.
              ——–

              “If it was IMPOSSIBLE to get evidence how can the prosecution bring out “evidence after evidence”?”

              I will give you just one example of evidence,though i’am sure the prosecution has many and won’t mind spending days and days in a court doing it,but i do mind spending days and days on this computer with you doing it.That is what legal proceedings are all about,long boring stuff that goes on for days and days and lawyers like you have orgasm after orgasm listening to your own voices.Not my cup of tea.Here it is buddy

              Imelda Sukumar,the government agent at that time testified to the LLRC as follows

              The sunday times,sunday nov 7 2010

              [Meanwhile, GA Jaffna, Ms Imelda Sukumar, who served as GA Mullaitivu from 2002 to January 2009, in her submissions on Thursday said, she and her officials had served in the area during some of its most difficult times, when they had to deal with victims of the tsunami and later, those affected by heavy fighting in the area.

              Ms Sukumar said that, as the war intensified towards the end of 2008, people from the districts of Vavuniya, Mannar and the entire population of Kilinochchi also moved into Mullaitivu, along with the LTTE cadres, increasing the population there to around 350,000. “While in Mullaitivu, I always maintained three months buffer stock of food,” she said.

              Ms Sukumar said that, around January 19, 2009, she was informed by Vavuniya Security Forces Commander, Maj. Gen Jagath Jayasuriya (Presently Commander of the Army) via fax, to declare a ‘Safe Zone’ and inform the people to make their way towards that area. “We were in Puthukudiyiruppu at the time I received the fax. Then, along with a map indicating which areas to move to, I made the necessary arrangements to declare a ‘Safe Zone’,” she said.

              Ms Sukumar was also informed that, on January 22, those who wanted to make their way into the government controlled area, could do so between 10.00 am. and 2.00 pm, when it would be a “No-War” interval.

              “I informed my officials and the United Nations (UN) staff there as well that it was safe to move out during that time. I also decided to leave, even though my staff did not want me to go. I had to leave, as I was unwell and needed medication. However, my staff members who wanted to leave were prevented from doing so by the LTTE,” she said.

              The Lessons Learnt and Reconciliation Commission in session
              The Jaffna GA said that, once she moved to Vavuniya, she continued to operate from there, by coordinating with the Essential Services Commissioner S.K. Divaratna and the World Food Programme (WFP), to send food supplies via ship from Trincomalee to Mullaitivu. She said that a minimum of three food ships were sent each week, and she received confirmation via fax and telephone, from the Additional GA in Mullaitivu, that the food had been received.

              She said that, only the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and government officials who distributed the food among the people, were present in the area. She said that, she had heard that the LTTE was pilfering some of the foodstuff, but she believed that about 80% of the stocks reached the people it was meant for.

              Ms Sukumar said that, people continued to flee the area using white flags, and moved to Vavuniya between January and May. Hence it is possible that the number of people in Mullaitivu had reduced from its peak of 350,000.

              LLRC Chairman C.R. De Silva: When you left on January 22, 2009, was the Puthukudiyiruppu Hospital damaged?

              Ms Sukumar: No, it was not damaged. I was occupying the Additional GA’s bungalow opposite the hospital.

              The last day I was there, I asked the people to leave for the ‘Safe Zone’ that had been declared. I told them it is not safe to stay here. I had the fax with the map indicating which areas are safe for the people to move to.

              Chairman: By January 22, had the people started to move out of the Puthukudiirippua area?

              Ms Sukumar: Yes, they had moved to the ‘Safe Zone’.

              Chairman: What was the population in the area at the time?

              Ms Sukumar: There were around 350,000 people, as they were from four districts namely, the entire Kilinochchi district as well as some areas of Mannar and Vavuniya, as well as the Mullaitivu population. But, from time to time, they used their influence with the LTTE to leave or escaped into government controlled areas. So the number must have reduced.

              Chairman: Do you think the LTTE used the people as a human shield?

              Ms Sukumar: They did not allow the people to leave the area, and restricted their freedom to move about. There were two of my officials who had been selected to the Foreign Service and asked to come for an interview, but the LTTE refused to issue a pass for them to leave. I intervened on their behalf and spoke with the LTTE, but they did not let them leave.

              The two officials missed the exam and did not gain entry into the Foreign Service. Even after the war ended, they appealed to the Foreign Ministry to given them another opportunity, which was not done. Even during the time of the CeaseFire Agreement (CFA), the LTTE issued passes for people to leave the area. I had pass number 2. I don’t know who number 1 was.

              Chairman: How did they use the people as human shields?

              Ms Sukumar: The LTTE knew if they did not keep the people with them, they would be easily identifiable. So they restricted their movements. If not for the civilians, the security forces would have moved into the area sooner. When the ‘Safe Zone’ was declared, LTTE members too moved there. Even on January 22, when I left, there were many people crying and asking the LTTE to let them go.

              Chairman: You said people carried white flags when they moved into government controlled areas. To your knowledge, were such people ever shot at?

              Ms Sukumar: No one was shot at. Even my driver used a white flag to flee the LTTE, who were demanding one of his two children to join the group. He said, he entered the area under security forces control, carrying a white flag. There were many such people who came and met me in Vavuniya. Not a single instance was reported to me of anyone coming with white flags being shot at, though there were instances where the LTTE fired at people trying to escape.

              When asked how many people may have been killed in the fighting, in the area, Ms Sukumar said that the GAs of the respective districts were in the process of collecting data along with their resettlement work, to ascertain the correct causality figures.]

              prosecutor Shankar:Your lordship,it is clear from this testimony that there were 350000 people in the unsafe zones and when they were incarcerated behind barbed wire fenced safe zones after the war ended,the count was only 292000.Therefore it is clear that 350000-292000=58000 innocent civilians,women and children and infants too were brutally and cold bloodedly killed.

              Defence counsel off the cuff:objection your honour.It is impossible to arrive at such a figure without a body count with physical presence of observers on the ground to verify this.

              Prosecutor shankar:The GoSL enforced a complete news blackout during this massacre and did not allow any reporters on the ground to cover events on the ground as the war was ending.It is our contention this was done in order to stifle any evidence of the carnage that was being planned to be committed.In the absence of being unable to do a body count due to the defendnts very own actions,we rely on other evidence such as this,eye witness testimony,photographic evidence and satelite images to arrive at a figure of 39923 as the civilians butchered by the defendent deliberatly and coldbloodedly.If the defendent can provide any independent observers who witnessed the events and counted the bodies and arrived at a lesser figure we welcome their testimony in this courtroom.

              Justice so and so:does the defence counsel have such independent observers who could testify to a lesser figure.

              Defence counsel off the cuff:er,we haven’t your honour because of the news blackout,but out army officers of course can……

              ——————

              “A famous example is that of O.J. Simpson who was perceived to have murdered his GF.”

              The prosecution botched that one.Also the jury were mostly african americans.There goes your theory about emotions should not be there in law.Thanks for the own goal.See the zimmerman case.Acquitted by white jury and judge.Welcome to the real world,pal.
              ———–
              “Law is blind to perceptions “

              and also colour blind too.
              ——-
              “We are not discussing computers but the Law and the Law is known to be blind.”

              so are computers.Got the point for the relevance to computers.Thanks for the own goal again.Would not want to have you in my soccer team.
              —-
              “A Law Court is NOT the Stock Market.”

              yes,but you are trying to make it into one with a computer that can replace the judge.That is why the comparison was made to the stock market.
              —-

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    Finally the dead to wounded ratio has been analysed to get to a realistic figure for combat-related deaths in the final phases.

    http://tinyurl.com/c24844l

    Ms Noble can count and do basic maths – something that seems to elude detractors of this study who, because they’re unable to dispute the calculations, are reduced to name calling and similar pathetic stunts.
    When Saint Frances Harrison was presented with the same data, she ran away (i.e. made a tactical retreat, just like her favourite LTTE commander, Puli) saying she was too “busy now with other things” to read the IDAG report. Pathetic.

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      mango,I don’t know whether you are a karuttha kolumban or betty amba,so i am not sure whether you are sour or sweet,but i sure know that this method of finding the number of dead has not been done before.Since you are an expert in this area injured to dead ratio analysis,give us examples where this type of analysis has been done before and we can compare the circumstances of that case with the srilankan one.On my part I have given example of Srebrenica and i can also give another example of hitler killing 6 million jews while there would have been only a few thousand injured survivors.Now upto you to provide us with 2 examples of yours,in similar circumstances as the final stages of the war in srilanka.

      What happened in srilanka was a massacre in an environment of war,not the other way about where in an environment of killings and injury a war was taking place like the high casualties in world war I.

      Here we have had a news blackout,the armed forces having enough time and cover to massacre and bury the dead wounded and alive with bulldozers,so this injury to dead ratio is not valid in these circumstances where deliberate massacres are taking place.In a fair fight with 2 combatants where they inflict casualties on each other and collateral damge on civilians take place,surrendees are not killed and there is transparency and news coverage of what is taking place,then the ratio of dead to injured may be right.So it could be right for the srilankan armd forces that lost I believe 26000 dead according to the GoSL and about 50000 injured maybe,i am not sure.

      Similarly for the LTTE GOSL says 30000 dead and i don’t know how much injured,maybe 50000 to 60000 injured.If Gota had decided to massacre the 12000 LTTE that surrendered then this ratio would have changed drastically.So we have to look at all the circumstances of a particular conflict without trying to childishly talk like a expert that one hat will fit all heads.

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        Don’t forget the Chinese gas chambers and incinerators you nutjob :-)

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        Shankar,
        The use of dead to wounded ratios in military conflicts is not controversial. It was first analysed in a groundbreaking study in the British Medical Journal (BMJ) in 1999, which examined casualty ratios in wars from 1940 to 1988. The study showed that the “number of people wounded is at least twice the number killed and may be 13 times as high” depending on the conflict type, weapons used and other factors.

        The IDAG report has been analysed and made easier to understand by Ms Noble for dim bulbs like yourself. You’re unable to grapple with the issue of numbers of wounded civilians.

        If 40,000 or more ‘civilians’ were killed, (using a conservative ratio of 1:3), there should be at least 120,000+ wounded survivors. Where are they? These aren’t “my” figures or ratios, but taken from the BMJ study of wars since 1940. http://tinyurl.com/c24844l

        Are you able to read?

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          dear mango,you say “If 40,000 or more ‘civilians’ were killed, (using a conservative ratio of 1:3), there should be at least 120,000+ wounded survivors. Where are they?”

          The GOSL said in parliament that they had 26000 armed forces dead.Then according to your ratio there should be 78000 injured.Where are they?Many people also tell me that the GOSL has deliberately understated their casualties.IF so there should be more than 100000 injured according to your analysis.

          The GOSL also said in parliament that the dead among the LTTE was 30000.Then according to your dimwitted analysis there should be 90000 injured ex LTTE ers walking around.Where are these dead man walking?When you go for a visit from toronto to see your panangkottai karutha kolumban village where you were born can you point them out to us.

          You ask me whether i can read.Can you think?Which is a better attribute to have,the ability to read and write or think?

          I have come across people with poor reading and writing skills but much better ability to think than those who are so called educated types.That is because they have a lot of common sense and practicality.As DR.Narendran once mentioned education=knowledge+wisdom+culture. Ask yourself when you bring out all these theoretical rubbish of dead to injured ratio’s that are far away from the practical realities of the carnage that took place,whether you have the last two components that consist of education.Start making the first steps towards it even now in your late stage of your life,never a loss.

          BTW i asked to for two specific examples of the dead to injured ratio to compare with the circumstances of my two specific examples of sberenica and holocaust,but you give me some broad facts in a journal.I know you are a well read man,much more than me but without behaving like a slippery snake panangkottai just become like a straightforward born and bred colombian like me and we can have a reasonable discourse on this matter.

          What your journal does not say is if the injured were also buried with the dead using bulldozers then the minimum ratio of two to one of injured to dead will not apply.This is what a dimwit like you cannot understand or don’t want to understand due to your personal interests conflicting with those of your community that you were born into.Those who wrote the minimum ratio of 2 to one in this journal would not have even in their wildest dreams contemplated such a callous act of burying the injured alive and covering up and using a massive power like India for denying an international investigation and also while conducting the war seeing that there was a complete news blackout and lack of transparency.Their analysis is based on normal warfare where the geneva rules would apply,not the type of warfare that the two piece of shits,the GOSl and the LTTE have been engaged in culminating ultimately in a massacre.

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            Shankar,
            Still having trouble with numbers? Extra tuition is needed for you.
            “The GOSL said in parliament that they had 26000 armed forces dead.”

            From July 2006 (Mavil Aru) to May 2009 (Nanthi Kadal) the Army has admitted to 5,275 KIA, 28,189 WIA, and 140 MIA. So the Army dead to wounded ratio is 1:5 which is better than for civilians but not as good as Western armies who with their access to outstanding medical care often achieve dead to wounded ratios of 1:17.

            As for your other fantasies, where’s the evidence?

            http://tinyurl.com/c24844l

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              dear mango/betty amba(i feel you are the sour one,not the sweet),read this please from wikipedia

              [The Sri Lankan civil war was very costly, killing an estimated 80,000-100,000 people between 1982 and 2009.[1] The deaths include 27,639 Tamil fighters, more than 21,066 Sri Lankan soldiers, 1000 Sri Lankan police, 1500 Indian soldiers, and tens of thousands of civilians.
              Minister of Defence Gotabhaya Rajapaksa said on an interview with state television that 23,790 Sri Lankan military personnel were killed since 1981
              The Sri Lankan military estimates that up to 22,000 Tamil Tiger rebels were killed in the last three years of the conflict.[6]

              That is why i told you there isn’t according to your 1:3 ratio 75000 wounded soldiers or 80000 wounded LTTE.Especially show us the 80000 wounded LTTE.In the last 3 years if there were 22000 dead LTTE we should be seeing 66000 injured too.Where are they?

              You also say”As for your other fantasies, where’s the evidence?”

              Don’t ask me mate,ask the UN because it is their report that says upto 40000 people died.Why does not the GOSL say to the UN”please don’t tarnish our squeaky clean image like this,when there was only zero civilian deaths and our troops were having weapons in one hand and human rights charter in the other hand.So,dear secretary General,we humbly request you to conduct an independent international investigation as soon as possible and exonerate us from this ridiculous and wild accusations of upto 40000 dead in your very esteemed but hastily prepared report.We assure you the fullest cooperation and unstinted support to unearth the truth and dispel these rumours floated by our enemies domestic and international for their nefarious purposes to destabilise and undermine the Democratic Socialist Republic Of Srilanka.”

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          Mango

          You could start work on this project using forensic science or forensic accounting or common sense. As a Sri Lankan do you really want to do the body count?

          Please give us your genuinely credible insanely accurate authentically verified …………..audited … certified figures for all killings since 5th April 1971.

          I would be grateful.

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            Too many dead to count. Why don’t you do it? Perhaps you can use some of your self-acknowledge native skills or even consult your village elders.

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              Mango

              “Why don’t you do it?”

              It is a good idea.

              Why cannot the stupid Tamils and stupid Sinhalese do it?

              They are the ones who either govern the island or would like to govern themselves in the future.

              They ruined it, let them put it right then leave my ancestral land.

              Since 1971 these people either killed others or got killed by others. They are responsible for book keeping. You are one of them.

              You question each and every figure that were being floated here.

              So let us have a working guestimate so that we can later test the assumptions/hypothesis you have considered in your computations.

              War crime deniers’ habitually rubbish all figures but produced none.

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    “Genuinely Credible”

    We have to believe this because you say this is ‘Genuinely Credible”??

    You are no different to the diaspora who scream 140,000 dead !

    After all we have not forgotten your writings about MR and the support you extended to him.

    Also, is there any professional jealously between you and Ms. Frances?

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    Hi Kath Noble ,

    Why is your article titled “A Genuinely Credible Estimate”?

    An estimate can be a genuine one or a fake one: It can be credible one or an absurd one. Why the over emphasis? Is it because you you want to convince the reader who finds it incredible that it’s genuine, or vise versa?

    Over emphasis with double qualifiers makes your analysis questionable.

    Thiru

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      It’s a ‘genuinely credible estimate’ as opposed to the so called ‘credible estimates’ pulled out of the air by the likes of Frances and the LTTE diaspora which don’t stand up to even the lightest scrutiny. Not that difficult to see what she was getting at really.

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        Siva Sankaran Sarma Menon

        Please give us your genuinely credible insanely accurate authentically verified …………..audited … certified figures.

        I would be grateful.

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    Extrapolating from numbers injured to numbers killed without understanding the context is not very clever. And those of us living in Sri Lanka should be the last to make mistakes in statistical reasoning — no other nation has had properties of Gaussian distributions discussed in Parliament and Supreme Court as much as ours.

    Let’s do a thought experiment on the use of potatoes as mathematical models of cluster bombs — something I have plagiarized from the Oxford Mathematics Department’s tutorial sheets.

    Say:
    A number of people N are packed in an area A, with nowhere to run.
    If you throw potatoes at these people, x1 get injured, y1 get killed.
    If you throw cluster bombs at them x2 get injured and y2 get killed.

    Now:
    x1 + y1 << N (potatoes don't do much damage)
    x2 + y2 < N (not equal because of mothers shielding their babies)

    So:
    The ratios x1/y1 and x2/y2 are not the same. And both these ratios will be functions of the packing density N/A.

    When packing density (N/A) is small (think Dresden or Bosnian hills), an increase in injured (x1 to x2) can be thought of as a proxy for an increase in dead (y1 to y2), and potatoes can tell us something about cluster bombs.

    But not so when the density is high. Indeed, a decrease in injured might even suggest an increase in dead (get it?)!

    So, now, potatoes do not tell us much about cluster bombs.

    It is a frightening thought that we were close to this latter asymptotic result on the subject of this study. Burying our heads in the sand won't make the pain go away!

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      Except 300,000 people made it out. Most of them uninjured. That’s a vast majority of the total even if we were to accept the nuttiest of the casualty “estimates”.

      Never mind potatoes, were they throwing peanuts wrapped in cotton balls? :-)

      Also, LOL, cluster bombs.

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        Siva Sankaran Sarma Menon

        Please give us your genuinely credible insanely accurate authentically verified …………..audited … certified figures.

        I would be grateful.

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        siva sankaran,you say that 30000 made it out.Who put them into the ‘safe’ or unsafe areas in the first place,the army going around asking them to go into safe zones and then shelling them.

        For your information it was 292000 that came out,not 300000.I know you will say what is a paltry 8000 difference anyway,because you sound like a callous bastard.That is why you brahmins were so hated in India and lost all your privileges because you consider other humans as inferior and not deserving the same rights and education as the brahmins.You tried your level best to stop free education,but it failed isn’t it?

        The food distribuion records of the the government agent show that 330000 were sent into the ‘safe’zones by the army.If 292000 came out then the dead are 38000 and tallies with the UN figure.

        I know callous bastards like you will say what is 38000 when 292000 was saved.As for nonbrahmins and low caste like us 38000 humans are humans though not high caste.Wonder how you and your family would have felt and behaved if you were part of that.

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          should have been 300000 made it out,not 30000.

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          You’re demolishing your own arguments shankar. In your examples of massacres you claim that only a few or few thousand survived while thousands or millions perished. So how is it that in this particular ‘massacre’ the vast majority survived? Many of them without injuries? Maybe the government buried a few hundred million bodies while no one was looking :-)

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            Siva sankaran,you smug piece of shit,in the massacres i mentioned i clearly referred the thousands as those who were injured and survived.When the jews were being killed some got injured and other bodies fell on them.Later on they managed to get out of the pits and escape.In case you did not notice we were talking about the injured in this article,not those who had survived which is the 292000 that your peanut brain is focused on.This is what happens due to inbreeding among you brahmins,some of you become retards.It is high time to diversified your breeding into other castes because the mutations in your DNA must have maximised by now due to the inbreeding, producing dumbasses like you.

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              Come on, please. Bad language does not win arguments.

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              So you’re saying most of the “40,000”/”75,000″/”150,000″/”Dream up number and insert here” were rounded up and killed in mass shootings (or maybe we’re talking about Zyklon B here), hence the lack of injured survivors? So it wasn’t due to indiscriminate shelling of the population in the NFZ, which inevitably would have resulted in a much higher number of injured among that population if we were to accept the numbers of deaths your ilk have been throwing about (which is not borne out by the actual numbers)? Very interesting. Have you ever read this line somewhere:

              Most civilian deaths in the final phases of the war were caused by Government shelling

              No? Try googling it. I suppose if you were to come up with and stick by one version of how things went down it would just be picked apart like in this article – so you need to keep twisting, flip flopping and inventing to keep the “genociiite” tale propped up :-)

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              sivasankaran,you brahman donkey,they were shelled and then buried using bulldozers and heavy equipment.After the 292000 had crossed over what was left in the ‘safe’ zone was the dead and injured.You think the army is going to bring the injured back.They are not running an ambulance service there for tamils whom they love so much.All those left dead as well as injured would have been buried lock stock and barrell.So much for your dead to injury ratio crap.

              You speak an infinite amount of nothing.That is why conversing with a stubborn retard like you puts me in a impatient mode.

              Why don’t you just accept the facts as it is without allowing your innate sense of high caste superiority try to belittle other peoples facts with that stupid smiley figure that you always put in your comments to everyone including me.That is why i judged you as a smug,superior complex,devoid of feelings type.

              For you it is just a numbers game.We are talking here of human beings who have gone through a truly horrific experience mutilated and killed,whether they were tamils or sinhalese is immaterial,for your upper class and caste mentality is just another happening to pen about and show your writing skills.

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              Where are the CT moderators? Shankar is not engaging in civilised debate here.

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              Mhm mhm. So according to you most civilian deaths weren’t actually caused by government shelling, as that would have left more injured than dead, but by burying them alive with bulldozers. I have no doubt you’re in possession of actual evidence to back all this up, and aren’t just desperately making things up as you go along to plug the gaping holes in the LTTE diaspora’s version of events. You should get this information out there ASAP, most of your friends are still making fools of themselves by persisting with the ‘most deaths caused by shelling’ story :-)

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              padraig,go back to bed.Don’t forget to pop your pills before you do,for the western depression malaise,and please don’t tell us how to do things anymore,colonialism ended in 1947,in case you did not know.You can go and boss around your countrymen in ireland,but if they don’t want you there or if you are just a nobody there and want to be a somebody in my country,that is not my problem mate.

              This not a civilised topic we are talking about so it is difficult to engage in civilised debate,especially when a north indian brahmin living in the UK uses sarcasm and finds a topic of a horrific massacre very amusing,thinking he is making witty comments with smiley figures,then it is time to give him back some of his own.

              If upto 40000 irish were massacred in cold blood,by let us say the English in 2009 with a complete news blackout and I was finding it very amusing and having a ‘civilised’debate with you with witty comments about it i suppose you will be very civilised towards me too.I know your history mate,i know many irish and I know what their reaction would be.

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            Where are the CT moderators? ??? Coleman needs to be stopped !!! He is creating problems !!!

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              You are correct Mr Wankar. As Dr Johnson said: “No man but a blockhead ever wrote, except for money.” I have been a blockhead long enough. I’m outa here to make some money. Adios amigos.

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              attaining enlightenment under CT instead of bo tree.

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    There are only two sources of credible data on civilian deaths. One is the pro LTTE Tamilnet website which made daily reports of civilian deaths.They claimed that their reporters were present on the ground and also had direct communication with the LTTE. If one cares to visit the Archives of Tamilnet and add up every civilian deaths reported in their daily reports as it happened basis, from the beginning of January up to the end of the war one would come up with a figure not exceeding 8000. It should also be noted that Tamilnet does not differentiate between the deaths of civilians and LTTE cadres.
    On data from the analysis of satellite images the best source is the analysis conducted by AAAS Science and Human Rights Program of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) commissioned by the Human Rights Watch and the Amnesty International in the month of May, immediately after the end of the war which is accessible on the following website.
    http://shr.aaas.org/geotech/srilanka/srilanka.shtml
    In order to estimate the extent of civilian deaths AAAS sought to identify changes in three graveyards found in both the northern and southern portions of the NFZ, and to identify locations in the NFZ and surrounding territory which might have held artillery or mortar positions. To derive this information, AAAS analyzed multiple high- resolution satellite images of the NFZ collected by publicly accessible commercial satellites. Scenes collected from different commercial satellites from May 9, 2005 (prior to the current period of conflict), March 23, 2009, April 19, May 6 and May 10, 2009, prior to and after reportedly intense fighting in the NFZ. Finally, a scene on May 24, was analyzed to determine post-conflict conditions. A set of photographs taken during a helicopter over flight of the NFZ by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon on May 22 was also used to aid imagery analysis.But the AAAS Report, while identifying only 17 possible mortar locations, ruled out categorically location of heavy artillery in even the 17 sited identified, and only a total of 1,346 likely graves were estimated to be in the imagery by May 24, 2009.

    Another authoritative’ figure of 10,000 deaths was given by Professor Francis Boyle who has been a long time and active supporter of the Eelam project. As the legal adviser to the LTTE Diaspora he would have been privy to inside information of the actual situation in the NFS. The date of the statement i.e. 20th May 2009 is also significant. He may not have had the time to inflate the figure which he did later in a few months to go up to 50,000. Even the figure of 10,000 could be considered an overstatement.

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      You don’t know anything about how Tamilnet operated. Volunteers in the West edited it, and had only one or two reporters on the ground in the Vanni who sent them the news. Their information might have been close to the truth in the early stages of the war, but as the war intensified, with the reporters themselves running for their lives, nobody knew what was going on. Any estimate that relies on Tamilnet for the exact number of war casualties is deeply flawed.

      Despite their sympathies toward the LTTE, neither Tamilnet nor Boyle had any real knowledge of what was going on in the Vanni, especially after Kilinochchi was captured by the SLA.

      As for estimates based on graves, both the SLA and the LTTE probably burned bodies rather than bury them in graves.

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        You would have sworn by Tamilnet if the information was favorable to your line of thinking.
        Let me give some background on Tamilnet.
        According to Wikipedia “Tamilnet is relied upon as a credible news source by journalists, civil society and the diplomatic community both within Sri Lanka and globally.
        Experts in the field argue TamilNet’s accuracy of its reporting has “rarely been successfully challenged that such charges ring hollow”.

        According to V. Sambandan, Sri Lanka Special Correspondent for the prominent Indian English Daily The Hindu, “facts and figures are double sourced, checked and are considered 100% credible”.

        The chief correspondent (of Tamilnet)was already a journalist in Tamil when he joined TamilNet in 2005.
        With the outbreak of war in July 2006, his duties became that of a war correspondent.He was everywhere in Vanni, covering battlefront, hospitals and shell-affected locations, sending reliable news and images. He moved with people throughout.
        On what the TamilNet correspondents achieved,The Hindu’s B. Muralidhar Reddy, writing in Frontline in June 2009 stated.

        “Most important was the fact that we had interference-free access to the Internet, including TamilNet, the website perceived to be pro-LTTE and based somewhere in Europe. It must be said that the ‘journalistic team’ associated with TamilNet did a marvellous job of relaying the scenes of the last hours of Eelam War IV as they unfolded.”

        Regarding Boyle= It is on record that the LTTE top command was in constant contact with their international supporters via satellite phones.
        LTTE may have burned the bodies of their cadres. Civilian bodies would have been buried by civilians and graves.

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          Listen, I know a lot more about the inner working of TamilNet than the stupid correspondents of The Hindu, like V.S.Sambandan and Muralidhar Reddy, or even DBS Jeyaraj. I talked to TamilNet’s editors themselves. Don’t expect me to take your quotes from others seriously.

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            Agnos

            “I know a lot more about the inner working of TamilNet than the stupid correspondents”

            Does Tamilnet still believe the LTTE won the war in 2009?

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    Can the moderators step in and stop Padraig Colman , people like him should not be allowed to comment and spoil the thread !!!!!!

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      CitizenSriLanka

      “Can the moderators step in and stop Padraig Colman , people like him should not be allowed to comment and spoil the thread !!!!!!”

      Many believe its still white man’s burden, to civilise the non white population.

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      Thank you for spelling my name correctly this time.

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      The thread is clearly of such high quality.

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    Kath Noble – “But this approach opens up the possibility of much higher totals, so people like Frances Harrison are still perfectly happy to describe its results as ‘credible’.”

    Frances Harrison – “Nearly four years on there is no agreed death toll, even to the nearest ten thousand lives. That’s why an international investigation is required to establish the truth about what may be one of the least reported but worst atrocities of recent decades – both in terms of the speed and the scale of the killing.” – http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/frances-harrison/one-hundred-thousand-peop_b_2306136.html

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    This is where it all began .. India is the culprit .. USA knew but let that happen between Tamils and Singhalese and enjoyed watching us fight each other.. such cheap things.. but now act like india is the saviour of tamils in #lka .. Take some time to read this and decide for your self..
    http://wikileaks.org/cable/1988/04/88COLOMBO2367.html

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    The war is over now deal with it or cry for it.. there isn’t gonna be any change for next 20 year.. Rajapaksa family rules Srilanka..

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    You should have added…Except for the journalists who give your own preferred figures. The higher the figure the better I guess. No need for verification.

    It began with..

    Upto 10,000 people could have died.
    Between 10,000 and upto 20,000 could have died – Times of London
    Between 10,000 and upto 40,000 could have died – Tamil Diaspora
    Over 40,000 – Others who latched on to this figure but .wishing it to be even higher.
    150,000 are missing from the Vanni – Bishop of Manar without ever doing a before and after count.

    All this has the resultant effect of hardening Sinhala opinions and paranoias with the consequent the erosion of what little trust they have in the Tamils not to try to secede using any devolved powers. The fact that this state may be as large as a third of the country (for only 12% of the population) is even more alarming.

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