By Laksiri Fernando –

Dr. Laksiri Fernando

SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis is normally used in business management, marketing, economic projects etc. However, it could also be used in political science or political analysis. Already, it is being used by some political parties and movements in developed countries to assess the strengths and weaknesses of their political campaigns. The following is what the AI Overview says about my request on ‘swot analysis in politics.’

“SWOT analysis in politics is a strategic planning tool used by parties and candidates to evaluate internal strengths and weaknesses against external opportunities and threats. It aids in crafting campaign messaging, mitigating vulnerabilities, and countering opposition, essentially identifying “friends, foes, and forces” to improve electoral or policy success.”

The above means, the NPP government or its constituent parties (JVP etc) can use this method in improving their contributions and successes. The same applies to the opposition parties and movements, including any minority movement fighting for their rights and/or self-determination. However, my objective is different.

While the above is an internal process, I am proposing an external and objective process in assessing the present government or any other government or any party/movement to the benefit of the country and people. The SWOT analysis could become an integral part of political science methodology.

At present there are about five or six books written on the SWOT analysis in general by the scholars like Alan Sarsby, Anja Bhm, Stefano Calicchio and jointly by Nadine Pahl and Anne Richter. There are many other books that refer to the SWOT methodology including in analysing political parties or political projects.

However, so far there is no single book directly on SWOT analysis and political assessments. Therefore, what I say here could be temporary and subject to review and change. I would therefore leave more profound use of the SWOT analysis to the younger generation. Also, as I am now living in Australia and also given my age (81), my knowledge of Sri Lanka’s empirical conditions might not be very strong.

This article is also limited to the internal, or the first part of the analysis, talking about strengths and weaknesses of the NPP government. The second part of the SWOT analysis on opportunities and threats will come soon.

What are the Strengths?

The NPP government has a two-thirds majority in Parliament. That is a clear strength. It was at the parliamentary elections in November 2024 that the NPP achieved this strength. They obtained nearly 62 percent of votes. Even at the presidential elections, this type of a victory could not be achieved in September 2024. Anura kumara Dissanayake (AKD) could obtain only 42 percent of votes at the first round. However, it is under his leadership that the NPP obtained the parliamentary victory within two months. Two thirds majority or 159 members in 225-member parliament means that the NPP government could even change the constitution or achieve any legislation without depending on others or the opposition. At the local government elections held in May 2025, the NPP was still leading although their voter base came down to 43 percent.

This government has a clear political legitimacy given the above victories. Apart from basing on the lower classes of society, the government is strongly supported by radical/progressive academics and professionals. The selection of Harini Amarasuriya, a former academic, as the Prime Minister shows this positive side. The composition of the Cabinet and appointments to various organizations and tasks also mainly being done from this intellectual sections of society. Some of them have undertaken these tasks with minimum benefits. This was not the case in past governments.

It is for the first time, that a coalition or an electoral movement led by the JVP (Peoples Liberation Front) won a parliamentary election and formed a government. Both the leadership and the membership of the JVP or even the NPP comes from lower classes of the society. The determination and commitment of the NPP government therefore is high and fairly reliable. There was somewhat a ‘comparable’ change in 1956, but that was horizontal, power going from urban to the rural. This is apart from its majoritarian character. However, the present change is more of vertical, a change within the class and social structure in the country.

A major strength of the government is also in its strong leadership. Whatever the weaknesses of Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s overconfident speeches, he is considered as a committed, faithful and people friendly leader. These qualities were absent among many of the past leaders and Presidents/Prime Ministers.

The present government has a strong anti-corruption drive appreciated by the international community and organizations (IMF, World Bank etc.) and democratic foreign governments. Although slow, the government has taken measures in implementing the anti-corruption policies through the re-establishment of the Financial Crimes Investigation Division. Arrests of dubious financial criminals, freezing of their assets, taking legal procedures and convictions are some measures. The government has given a clear message to the public servants regarding corruption. They have taken measures themselves to cut down excessive expenditure for their Ministers, Members of Parliament, including the abolition of pensions.

The JVP is basically a Marxist party. However, they have changed primarily their economic policies pragmatically to suit the national and international circumstances. This is a strength. However, their policies still appear as socialist or leftist. This is not a major problem as even Sri Lanka is called a Democratic Socialist Republic in the constitution. Their pragmatism is shown as they have agreed to the IMF reform programs diplomatically. Under the circumstances, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and European countries have opened their doors to help the country. This was clearly necessary under the circumstances of foreign exchange crisis and bankruptcy.

What are the Weaknesses?

The gap between theory and practice is the main weakness of the NPP government. This is common to many left leaning or Marxist governments. Their theories come from the ideology. Practice is what they face under capitalist circumstances, nationally and internationally. This gap is obvious when one compares what they promised, or written in their Manifesto, and what they actually do at present. Of course, this is common to many governments in Sri Lanka or elsewhere, and they can claim that what is written in the manifesto is about the broad vision and not limited to one term of office. This is partly correct.

Inexperience is the second most prominent weakness of the NPP government. This is apparent not only from the backbenchers, most of whom are holding elected positions in Parliament for the first time in life. When you consider the government as the Cabinet, majority of them are inexperience in the subjects they are responsible to handle. There are 23 Cabinet Ministers including the President and six of them are National List members. Most prominent inexperience of the government came to the light during the cyclone Ditwah disaster. The government was confused, except their boasted declarations, and took a long time to address the main issues. Even some of the non-governmental organizations (NGOs) were doing better in addressing the people’s grievances during the Ditwah disaster.

The government has not clearly explained how they would address the questions of minorities or primarily the Tamil question. During some visits to the North and the East, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has expressed some flexibility. However, his adamant voice and gestures have not been for the liking of Tamil activists and intellectuals.

The government is also weak on the question of educational reforms. In the school system, they are following curriculums and textbooks introduced by the previous governments. That is not completely wrong. However, when they found an inappropriate website cited in the grade seven text book, they postponed the reforms without going ahead with a corrected textbook. This is a topic that should be discussed separately. What are their university reforms? They are also not taking any measures to protect children from inappropriate websites/social media.

Another most prominent weakness of the government is in international relations. There is no wrong in dealing with the IMF or the World Bank by the government although their rhetoric was different before coming to power. However, they or their officials have not bargained properly with the IMF and the World Bank on behalf of the ordinary people in the country. This was a weakness of many previous governments.

An organization like IMF makes proposals purely on the basis of economics. However, a government has to give equal prominence to people’s needs. To my knowledge, the IMF would not categorically oppose such a concern or approach. But it is not them, but the government who should bargain and ensure people’s needs. This has not happened even before, and it is particularly a weakness of the NPP government.

In respect of broader international relations, the NPP government is inexperience and weak. It is not only a weakness of the Minister, but the whole government and the traditions of foreign affairs. Sri Lanka should not be backward. It should establish very good relations with countries like India, China, America, Australia, Canada, all European countries etc. Sri Lanka should extremely be active and prominent within international organizations. All our embassies should be overhauled and the main tasks should be to promote our exports, country’s profile, and human resources.

There can be many other weaknesses but those can be overcome, given the commitments and strengths of the NPP government that we have discussed in the first part of this article.