By Asoka S. Seneviratne –
Prof. Asoka.S. Seneviratne
“For Sri Lanka, joining RCEP is not merely about trade — it’s about securing a seat at the table of Asia’s economic transformation.”
The establishment of diplomatic relations between Sri Lanka and New Zealand in 1958 was strengthened in two stages. First, the New Zealand High Commission was opened in Colombo in 2021. This year, Sri Lanka opened its High Commission in Wellington. Given this, New Zealand Deputy Prime Minister Rt. Honorable Peters (who is also the Minister of Foreign Affairs) made an official visit to Sri Lanka on May 24, 2025. This visit holds significant implications for both nations, particularly regarding Sri Lanka’s ongoing economic recovery. During his five-day stay in Colombo, Deputy Prime Minister Peters engaged in discussions with Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Vijitha Hearth to enhance cooperation in key sectors, including (a) trade, (b) agriculture, (c) tourism, (iv) education, and (v) investment. A key focus of these talks was the expansion of trade in high-potential areas, including dairy, processed foods, and fresh produce. Since Sri Lanka currently meets only about 40% of its domestic dairy demand, New Zealand’s expertise and substantial dairy exports, amounting to $335 million in 2024, are poised to play a pivotal role in bolstering Sri Lanka’s dairy industry. Additionally, on June 28, 2023, Sri Lanka submitted a letter of intent to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), signaling its commitment to enhancing economic cooperation and trade linkages within the broader Asian region. This move aligns with Sri Lanka’s wider strategy to diversify exports and integrate more deeply into regional value chains. New Zealand has welcomed Sri Lanka’s application to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
The purpose of this article is to outline the costs and benefits of Sri Lanka’s membership in the RCEP.
What is the RCEP
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) involving 15 countries in the Asia-Pacific region, making it the largest trade bloc in the world by GDP and population. Currently, it consists of 15 member countries: ASEAN (10 countries) including Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, along with five Asia-Pacific nations: China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. The purpose of RCEP is to simplify trade rules, reduce tariffs, and promote investment and cooperation across the region. Therefore, the main objectives are to (i) reduce tariffs on goods and services among member countries, (ii) streamline customs procedures and rules of origin (which aids regional supply chains), (iii) enhance market access for services and investment, (iv) promote e-commerce and intellectual property rights, and (v) foster economic cooperation. RCEP is vital as it encompasses about (a) 30% of the global population, (b) 30% of global GDP, and (c) 28% of global trade, establishing a standardized trading system among developed, developing, and emerging economies.
Potential Benefits to Sri Lanka of Joining RCEP
1. Wider Market Access
* Access to a unified market of 2.3 billion people spanning 15 countries.
* Export opportunities for Sri Lankan goods like textiles, tea, rubber, spices, and fisheries to large economies like China, Japan, and South Korea with lower or zero tariffs.
2. Integration into Regional Supply Chains
* RCEP promotes rules of origin that streamline sourcing and production across borders.
* Sri Lanka could integrate more deeply into Asian value chains — particularly in apparel, electronics, and auto components.
3. Boost to Local Industries and FDI
* Greater investor confidence from being part of a stable trade bloc.
* Can attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from RCEP countries that are seeking low-cost production bases.
4. Export Diversification
* Reduces dependency on traditional markets (like the US and EU).
* Opportunities to diversify exports across sectors and countries.
5. Support for Services and Digital Trade
* Sri Lanka’s growing IT/BPO (Business Process Outsourcing) financial services sectors could benefit from better access to markets such as Australia and Singapore.
* E-commerce and digital trade provisions in RCEP can support tech-driven SMEs.
6. Lower Import Costs
* Tariff reductions can decrease the costs of importing raw materials, machinery, and intermediate goods, benefiting domestic manufacturers.
7. Capacity Building & Technical Cooperation
* RCEP includes provisions for technical assistance and economic cooperation, which may enable Sri Lanka to enhance its trade infrastructure and standards.
Challenges to Consider
* Increased competition from larger, more industrialized RCEP economies (e.g., China, Vietnam).
* There is a need for Sri Lanka to align its domestic policies, standards, and regulations with the requirements of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
* There is a risk of trade imbalances if domestic industries aren’t adequately protected or prepared.
Strategic Steps for Sri Lanka
* Begin with observer status or bilateral trade agreements with key RCEP countries.
* Upgrade infrastructure, logistics, and customs procedures.
* Strengthen domestic industries and support small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to compete regionally. In this respect, the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce’s vision document titled “Vision 2030: Five-Year Economic Plan (2025–2030)” is useful. This comprehensive policy blueprint aims to guide Sri Lanka toward sustainable and inclusive development by 2030.
* Promote export-oriented sectors through training, innovation, and the use of digital tools (i.e., knowledge-driven products and services).
Costs and Risks of Joining RCEP
1. Increased Competition
* Local industries, such as agriculture and manufacturing, may struggle to compete with lower-priced imports from countries like China or Vietnam.
2. Trade Deficit Risk
* Imports could rise more quickly than exports, widening the trade deficit if Sri Lanka does not improve its competitiveness.
3. Regulatory & Infrastructure Challenges
* We must enhance customs systems, trade standards, and legal frameworks to align with RCEP norms.
* This may require financial and institutional reforms.
4. Loss of Tariff Revenue
* Lowering import duties may lead to a temporary decrease in government revenue from tariffs.
5. Compliance Burden on SMEs
* Small businesses may encounter challenges related to intricate rules of origin, certification, and digital compliance requirements.
Strategic Approach for Sri Lanka
* Prioritize internal reforms, improve export capacity, and support small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) first.
* Consider joining as an observer or through bilateral Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with RCEP countries.
* Utilize RCEP as a long-term opportunity, rather than an immediate solution.
Summary & Conclusion
Sri Lanka’s diplomatic and economic ties with New Zealand have significantly strengthened in recent years, highlighted by the 2025 visit of New Zealand Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters. His discussions with Sri Lankan officials emphasized the importance of deepening cooperation in trade, agriculture, tourism, and investment, particularly in the dairy sector, where New Zealand possesses strong capabilities. This visit took place against the backdrop of Sri Lanka’s formal request to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) in June 2023.
RCEP is the largest free trade bloc in the world, comprising 15 Asia-Pacific countries and representing about 30% of global GDP and trade. The article outlines several potential benefits for Sri Lanka if it joins, including wider market access, integration into regional supply chains, increased foreign investment, and support for sectors like IT and manufacturing. However, it also warns of challenges such as heightened competition, possible trade deficits, and the necessity for regulatory reforms.
It is recommended that Sri Lanka adopts a gradual and strategic approach—starting with observer status or bilateral Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), improving trade infrastructure, and supporting Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs)—before full integration into the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The article frames RCEP not as a quick solution, but as a long-term opportunity that requires preparation and reform.
*The writer, among many, served as the Special Advisor to the President of Namibia from 2006 to 2012 and was a Senior Consultant with the UNDP for 20 years. He was a Senior Economist with the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (1972-1993), asoka.seneviratne@gmail.com
nimal fernando / June 1, 2025
Unknown heroes just doing their job far away from the limelight ……… the little people who stood in the way of Ranil’s stalwart ministers! ……… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2qlGCmOTTE
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Gotta do the work others have abandoned ……… work of the great patriots who are now busy carrying balls ……. for Ranil’s “patriotism!”
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Not gonna name names!! :)))))
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The country will be on the right track …… when they begin to see the light ……. if not another 2500+ years ……… past 2048 ……… and then some ……
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Native Vedda / June 2, 2025
nimal fernando
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Father of Prabaharan was S W RD Banda, mother was Weeping Widow, Grandfather was Anagarika Homeless Dharmapala, ……. Please watch this clip see how the Oxonian began sitting on his brain.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DJwAUYcqNFR/?igsh=ZXY5NGRmczUwc3A%3D
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I don’t understand how people tolerate and repeatedly vote for such politicians. SJ and some Tamil leftists are still fond of his wife.
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Leonard / June 1, 2025
During his visit Mr Peters was tyge deputy PM but from today Deputy PM in New Zealand is held by Mr David Seymour.the Act Party leader.
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Ajith / June 1, 2025
“The article outlines several potential benefits for Sri Lanka if it joins, including wider market access, integration into regional supply chains, increased foreign investment, and support for sectors like IT and manufacturing. However, it also warns of challenges such as heightened competition, possible trade deficits, and the necessity for regulatory reforms.”
There are enough advises recommendations about opportunities, potentials benefits, foreign investments if Sri Lanka do this do that etc. But no one talk or recommend or advise about the political challenges, threats in the field of politics or economics. Does any one think that you can face the challenges with only one JVP government, with only one Buddhist Sinhalese Community? Sri Lanka’s accumulated debt continue to increase day by day and Sri Lanka’s dependence on regional and international continue to increase and there is no evidence of increase of productivity of export sector other than increasing wealth of tourism. This tourism and inflow of dollar includes the Sri Lankan’s diaspora who was chased away.
It is true that the country was in bankrupt and the people of this country and regional and external powers are keeping quite now. How long you can keep this stability? How long you can continue to arrest some politicians and how much financial return you recover from them?
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Cicero / June 1, 2025
The major driver of RCEP is China. India is not a party to it. There are complications. When you have large players, a small state is just a gnat. In economic terms, a state like Singapore though small is a large player. So, what is in it for Sri Lanka to give the privileges that RCEP demands such as entry of foreign investment? There is no evidence that such treaties increase foreign investment. We have 29 such treaties from old times. All that we have to show for it are expensive arbitrations. There must be some other way than making the country a door-mat for a large group of states.. Making treaties is just a knee-jerk reaction. Why not increase our capacity to make milk products than increase the capacity of New Zealand by becoming a market for their products?
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