By Vishwamithra –

“ There is no avoiding war: it can only be postponed to the advantage of others.” ~ Niccolo Machiavelli

Unlike in the fifties, sixties, and seventies, today’s geopolitical dynamics do not recognize an American wing and a Soviet wing. The Soviet Union is dead; its desire for old-world predominance met its end with the arrival of Gorbachev, who unshackled the state’s grip on the economy and its people. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, China has emerged as the most direct military and economic rival to the U.S., though the rise of India and the continued influence of the European Union are pushing the world toward a more complex multipolar order. In such a complex and multi-choice paradigm—as opposed to a bipolar geopolitical order—Sri Lanka, led by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, could carve out a unique position as a maverick world leader whose presence in the global theater cannot be disregarded or ignored by superior powers.

From domestic economic reforms to international diplomacy, President Dissanayake is increasingly defined by his ability to maintain a nuanced balance through complex political minefields. While most world leaders respond to international crises with cautious, conventional measures to preserve their status, a rare few venture beyond established norms. These leaders make unconventional decisions that do more than just define their personal legacies—they fundamentally alter the trajectory of human history. While developed nations struggle with leadership turnover, such leaders and the emergence of new leadership in the less affluent nations could be even rarer. The current sociopolitical and economic dynamics that are defining the impasse in the Middle East—compounded by the 2026 Iran-USA/Israel war—demand a more philosophically sensitive approach to resolution that addresses deep-seated historical and emotional legacies.

Nevertheless, Western Europe’s hesitant response to the Iran war has come to define its broader failure to manage the consequences of the crisis, allowing it to overshadow other geopolitical issues. As a direct consequence of this European hesitancy, poorer nations such as Sri Lanka and other Asian countries are facing a situation that calls for more radical and ‘outside the box’ solutions. The current global leadership vacuum is a barren landscape, offering a unique opportunity for developing nations to lead with articulation and resolve.

India is no more a developing nation. Its status amongst its global partners has been elevated to an already developed nation status. India’s geopolitical and economic influence is undeniable, with global partners increasingly treating it as a major superpower. However, classified internationally as a lower-middle-income economy, it is technically still a developing nation. Describing it as a fully developed nation is factually inaccurate, as development encompasses much more than global standing.India is an rising, influential leader, particularly in humanitarian and Southern contexts, but its leadership is not universally accepted “without hesitation” by all nations, due to its complex geopolitical, democratic, and neighboring dynamics.

In this fractured global landscape, a smaller country like Sri Lanka—whose economic woes are still in the process of being resolved—could still stand as a testament to modern political neutrality. Both AKD and his government maintained a policy of neutrality and fulfilled their humanitarian obligations by rescuing and ultimately returning the Iranian ship crew, resisting direct pressure from the US Embassy not to repatriate them. If that is not being ‘non-aligned’, then what is?

It is not only non-alignment in the truest sense of the word, it is also raw courage and steadfastness as a leader of men. Not playing to the already dressed orchestra is no easy task; but doing the right thing at the right time and aligning that deed with the principles and dearly held values of national dimensions is remarkable.

Anura Kumara Dissanayake is a remarkable leader with remarkable abilities and authentic qualities.
But to display such iconic characteristics before the global platform requires more poise and determination. As he moves from being a populist opposition leader to a head of state, the demands for high-level diplomacy increase. His “pragmatic realist” turn from “populist revolutionary” is observed, but international stakeholders (like India, China, and the US) will be watching how he manages complex geopolitical balancing acts.

AKD’s audience has changed and gone beyond the shores of Sri Lanka; that change, among others, now includes appealing to the more affluent nations for their keen attention and stringent evaluation. Since winning the 2024 presidential election, AKD has undertaken several foreign trips to major powers, including India and China, as well as engaging with Western nations and the Middle East, aiming for a non-aligned foreign policy. The administration is actively courting investment rather than just loans, with visits specifically aimed at high-level business leaders in countries like Japan.

The government has acknowledged the need to meet international standards for economic recovery, particularly with the IMF and in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI), which necessitates a more professional, transparent, and internationally palatable approach. AKD has met with Sri Lankan professionals, entrepreneurs, and investors abroad, such as in Germany, signaling an attempt to appeal to affluent or skilled overseas Sri Lankans.

He surely has shown to the current Opposition in Sri Lanka that the AKD of the election campaign time has taken leave of himself; instead you have a national leader who has deliberately chosen to enact a totally different chapter altogether. A grown-up political leader has emerged from the ashes of the Rajapaksa era.

The world has gone past the cold war era. China, although has not replaced the old Soviet Union as the alternative to American power, has come a long way and now threatening to go past America in many fields, including in the sphere of AI. Unlike the U.S. and Soviet Union, which had minimal economic ties, the U.S. and China are deeply interdependent economically. The era of a single, undisputed American superpower has been replaced by a more crowded, competitive landscape of influential nations. While the USSR was primarily a military rival, China is a commercial, military, and technological rival.

China is not seeking to isolate itself from the Western system like the USSR did, but rather to reshape it. China is highly integrated into the global economy, making it a “more dangerous adversary” to the US than the Soviets were because it can compete on economic terms. As of early 2026, the performance gap between top American and Chinese AI models has largely closed. US and Chinese models are “neck-and-neck,” with Anthropic (US) and Chinese models trading the top benchmark spots. While the U.S. leads in hardware (high-end chips) and foundational research, China leads in AI application, patent output, and publication volume. China has achieved global leadership in areas such as electric vehicles, 5G infrastructure, and industrial robotics.

In the current scenario, the U.S. and Israel launched “[Operation Epic Fury]” on February 28, 2026, against Iran, a move widely viewed by analysts as a war of choice that allies are reluctant to join. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to commercial shipping, breaking supply chains and triggering a “dual blockade” scenario where the US blockades Iran and Iran blocks the Gulf. Developing economies face acute food insecurity, rising fertilizer prices, and energy shortages.

Amidst this, a leader like AKD has limited, yet critical, options based on strategies pursued to maintain neutrality and protect national interests in early 2026: Refuse military requests from both sides (US and Iran) to turn the country into a logistical base, as Sri Lanka did in March 2026 by denying U.S. military landing rights and Iranian naval docking requests. Placing “humanity above all else” by assisting stranded sailors from either side (as seen in the rescue of Iranian sailors) builds international trust and prevents being viewed as a belligerent. Rather than trying to influence the US directly, smaller nations can join coalitions with regional powers (e.g., India, China) to negotiate safe passage for fuel and cargo. Iran has demonstrated flexibility, granting passage to ships from specific countries (India, China, Russia, Iraq, Pakistan) after successful negotiations. Positioning the nation as a secure, neutral port in the Indian Ocean to attract maritime traffic that is diverting away from the dangerous Gulf routes.

Negotiating bilateral trade agreements to secure essential supplies (fuel, fertilizer) bypassing the closed Strait, focusing on alternative suppliers could be a choice available. As the 2026 landscape is described as a “dangerous escalation” where the traditional “balancing act” between superpowers is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain, the ultimate goal is to navigatr the “managed stability” needed to prevent economic ruin while upholding sovereignty.

Sri Lanka is well poised to transform a very volatile and dangerous global event into a context within which she can emerge not only as one who managed to survive but to do so with a new reality that ensures a place in the sun for a small country too. Sri Lanka is increasingly seen as a nation leveraging its strategic location to turn regional rivalries (e.g., India-China-US) into development opportunities rather than being passive, navigating neutrality while prioritizing humanitarian and economic interests. Following the severe “Cyclone Ditwah” in late 2025, the country is utilizing foreign aid and rebuilding efforts as a catalyst for a “climate comeback,” focusing on a more resilient and sustainable economy.

*The writer can be contacted at vishwamithra1984@gmail.com