By Rajan Philips –

Rajan Philips

NPP Manifestos – from 3% in 2019 to power play in 2024

Last week saw the three main candidates releasing their respective manifestos. On Sunday, the principal Tamil political party, the ITAK (Ilankai Tamil Arashu Kadchchi), announced that it has unanimously decided, after due deliberation over five hours, to back Sajith Premadasa at the Presidential election. The news is more a commentary on the sad state of Tamil political affairs in Sri Lanka than it could be seen as a boost to Mr. Premadasa’s candidacy.

The general vibes are that Sajith Premadasa is poised to collect the largest vote share among the Tamils, Muslims and Malayagha Tamils. That is without accounting for the votes that the so called Common Tamil Candidate would end up gathering in the north and east. There is a common socio-historical thread in Tamil politics that connects the boycott of 1931, the fatwah of 2005, and today’s common candidacy. The first was misplaced idealism, the second was arrogance that ended in tragedy, and the third is a comical farce that should have no place in serious politics.             

As for the three manifestos, pictures do tell political stories. Juxtaposed above are snapshots from 2019 and 2024 and they illustrate the NPP’s spectacular rise under Anura Kumara Dissanayake – from the deposit losing 3% in 2019 to being a real contender for power in 2024. Last Monday, AKD and the NPP released their manifesto, entitled “ A Prosperous Nation, Beautiful Life,” simultaneously in Sinhala and Tamil.

AKD and the NPP have been releasing manifestos for quite some time. In a sense, they are the most consistent callers for change; their manifesto is both a continuity and evolution from 2019, and the follow up in February 2022. Their electoral progression was interrupted by Ranil Wickremesinghe when he executively denied funds for the local government elections disregarding even the Supreme Court’s order.

Now Ranil Wickremesinghe is the continuity candidate, but his campaign seems hopelessly top heavy. He has the largest number of ‘agents’ – all Ministers appointed by him and MPs who depend on him for their pension. The images of RW and his entourage bring back memories of MR 1 (duly blessed by MR 2) and his entourage before the January 8 election in 2015. They looked on the way out rather than staying put. What is it going to be for RW now?

Slogans and Tricks

Ranil Wickremesinghe is also trying out alternative slogans. He first got thirty four parties to sign on to the slogan, Puluwan Sri Lanka, in a Battaramulla ceremony,  a play on Barak Obama’s “Yes, we can” mantra. That was supposed to be the title of his election manifesto. But the slogan did not catch on, and so the manifesto was released on Thursday with a different title: “Five Years of Winning the Country with Ranil.” Its “principal components,” the five precepts, speak for themselves: “Theravada Trade Economy,” “Operation – Beyond 2025,” “Make a Radiant Society,” “Win the Motherland,” and “Unite Sri Lanka.”

Sajith Premadasa’s Manifesto, “A Win for all,” was also released on Thursday, but apparently as a limited edition for the eyes of Prelates of the Sangha. A more public version was reported to be scheduled for September 4, but there have been reports of the Manifesto, indicating promises to build a “resilient economy, enhance the state service, protect quality of life and safeguard the nation.”

Premadasa seems to be appealing to those on the right who are frustrated with Ranil Wickremesinghe, and those in the middle who find Anura Kumara Dissanayake a little too far to the left. There are others who find commonalities between Sajith Premadasa and Anura Kumara Dissanayake; those on the right find the commonalities to be alarming, and those on the left use them to call Sajith Premadasa a progressive.

With only three weeks to go before the election, the campaign is entering a new phase with the releasing of the manifestos. But manifestos by themselves are unlikely to change the directions in which the voters seem to be leaning already. There are also rumours and concerns that Ranil Wickremesinghe might play yet another trick to thwart a conclusive election outcome. His decision to supply MPs with repeater shotguns and his gazette extraordinaire for the armed forces to be at the ready to maintain public order, look weird and they sure feed the rumour mill.

But Anura Kumara Dissanayake has dismissed any threat to the elections due to Ranil playing tricks, and has confidently predicted that the NPP will be forming a new government. He has also asserted that Mr. Wickremesinghe will not be able to do anything about it because the government servants, the police and the army including retired veterans are all supporting the NPP. It would have been far better if Mr. Dissanayake had called on the government servants, the police and the armed forces to stand neutral and do their job impartially instead of tagging all or most of them as JVP/NPP supporters.

Just days before the 1977 election, then UNP leader JR Jayewardene gave a public warning to public officials and the police (the army was hardly involved in election security those days) that they should not follow undue directions from higherups that were intended to bolster the outgoing (SLFP) government. If they could not rebuff bad orders, JRJ said, they should go on leave and return after the election with the new (UNP0 government in power.

Mr. Dissanayake could and should have made a statement like JRJ instead of claiming that vital parts of the government are already a part of his campaign. That somewhat undermines his sweeping thesis that he is the pre-eminent change candidate who will undo all the misdoings of the past 76 years. At the same time, the NPP leader if elected president should refrain from doing what JRJ did after becoming Prime Minister and then President in 1977/78. JRJ went on to preside over the politicisation of the state apparatus like never before. Nothing has been the same since.

Rankless Police

There is breaking news that Sajith Premadasa has announced that he would implement a “One Rank, One Pay” policy. There are no details to review, but it would be difficult to imagine much sense in this proposition even with details. A rankless police would be a contradiction in terms. And it echoes the infamous “One country, One law” initiative under Gotabaya Rajapaksa.     

All three candidates are criss-crossing the country holding rallies and making speeches, but no one knows for sure who is in the lead and who is behind. Through all the  questionable polls and weighted gossip, what seems to be averaging out is that Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Sajith Premadasa are jostling between the first and second positions, and Ranil Wickremesinghe is behind in third – but “surging,” whatever that means.

Interestingly, and hopefully consequentially, both Premadasa and Dissanayake are committed to ending the executive presidential system and returning to a parliamentary system that will have a Head of State elected by the people’s representatives. Ranil Wickremesinghe is silent on the matter. His main mantra is the IMF and the irrevocability of the Agreement he reached with the IMF. But he should know that any agreement can be renegotiated without revocation, especially after a national election. And the election is not a referendum on the IMF Agreement.

The presidential election is not going to be conclusive in itself without an immediately following parliamentary election. Ranil Wickremesinghe is the only candidate who would be inclined to keep the current parliament going as long as it could. And, if elected, he will. Premadasa and Dissanayake, on the other hand, are likely to dissolve the current parliament and go for a parliamentary election as soon as possible.

At the same time, the transition from the presidential election to the election of a new parliament will be an uncharted period for the country in the event of a Premadasa victory or, perhaps more so, a Dissanayake victory and the NPP reduced from three to two MPs in parliament. Not that the bridging challenges during a transitionary period cannot be identified or addressed. But they need to be acknowledged in advance by the two apparently leading candidates and articulated as part of their current campaign. That will also add to the validity of their claim that they can be trusted with power.