By Ajith Rajapaksa –

Ajith Rajapaksa

Since the day nominations were accepted for the presidential election, the atmosphere has intensified progressively. Even months before the election date was set, the National People’s Power (NPP) began its campaign with a meticulously planned strategy, positioning itself ahead in the early stages. However, as other candidates entered the race, the competition has grown increasingly fierce. The current president, who started the race with minimal public support, has made considerable progress according to reports. Meanwhile, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) has managed to pose a strong challenge to the NPP, forming a broad multiethnic coalition. Despite this, most surveys indicate that a majority of voters are still undecided, making the upcoming weeks crucial for securing victory.

A notable difference in this election compared to previous ones is that no party has yet presented a comprehensive campaign manifesto. Key issues necessary for the country’s transformation, such as constitutional reforms, the abolition of the executive presidency, resolving the national question, promoting reconciliation, eradicating corruption, and rebuilding the economy, remain confined to campaign rhetoric. No party has put forward a clear, targeted, and coherent plan.

Ranil Wickremesinghe

Ranil Wickremesinghe is contesting as an independent candidate this time, aiming to garner support from a broad coalition. Representing the United National Party (UNP) alone, Ranil has skilfully managed to infiltrate the once-dominant Rajapaksa camp. A significant number of Cabinet ministers and MPs from the Rajapaksa camp have now come forward to support Ranil, suggesting they are enjoying a newfound independence after having long been tethered to the Rajapaksa family’s projects. Ranil was able to gain the support of the Pohottuwa MPs by delaying and avoiding Basil Rajapaksa’s various demands, with which he did not agree. Frustrated and angry, the Rajapaksas decided to field Namal Rajapaksa as a candidate, at least as an attempt to maintain some foundation within the Pohottuwa party for their future political ambitions. Whether they liked it or not, Pohottuwa MPs had few options left. They find solace in Ranil’s economic policies, which seem to have revitalized them. Ranil has repeatedly emphasized the need for support to carry forward his economic agenda, warning that any deviations could lead the country back to bankruptcy.

Some of Ranil’s backers believe that if he wins, he will steer the country toward a new economic path by making essential changes in the economic sphere. Ironically, those who once destroyed Ranil’s image, branding him as a Western-leaning, anti-Buddhist, unpatriotic liberal who was dividing the country, are now rallying behind him. The nationalist forces that opposed Ranil’s policies back then are now supporting him. Therefore, if Ranil wins, he is expected to function as a powerful president. However, this also raises concerns that he may become an authoritarian leader, especially given his recent anti-democratic actions, such as appointing loyalists to key positions like the Attorney General and Inspector General of Police, disregarding the constitutional council’s opinion, and dismissing court rulings. His handling of the presidential election process has also drawn criticism, heightening suspicions about his intentions. Additionally, Ranil’s erratic behaviour has been negatively perceived domestically. However, on the international front, he is seen as a leading figure in political and economic stability. He is recognized as a dependable ally by both India and the Western bloc. This has led to the notion that “better the devil you know” might apply here. Ranil has also promised to pursue some major projects with the Indian government, suggesting that he is likely to receive Indian support.

A negative consequence of Ranil’s potential victory could be the resurgence of corrupt Pohottuwa MPs, who may return to power. When questioned by a journalist about this, Ranil stated that he does not protect corrupt individuals and that it is up to the people to decide whether to send corrupt figures to parliament. However, Ranil’s increasing support seems to stem from the public’s fear and anxiety about the country’s economic situation. The main theme of Ranil’s campaign is the need to maintain the current situation and avoid risky experiments.

Anura Kumara Dissanayake

Anura’s campaign is primarily focused on tackling corruption. He advocates for catching thieves, punishing them, recovering stolen wealth, and providing relief – ideas that resonate with the public. Although this is not the real solution to the country’s economic crisis, the NPP has successfully popularized this narrative. They have also held a series of meetings with various intellectuals, professionals living abroad, and academics to demonstrate that they have a competent and intelligent team capable of governing the country. This is largely a response to accusations that the NPP lacks a sufficiently skilled team to govern.

However, the JVP, the main party within the NPP, has been criticized for expressing conflicting views on various economic and social issues. In particular, statements made by Sunil Handunneththi, the head of the NPP’s economic committee, have raised doubts about their economic policy. Moreover, there are concerns that the JVP might be using the NPP as a front to seize power. The JVP’s pro-China stance and socialist leanings have further fuelled suspicions. Additionally, they have not clearly articulated their socio-economic plan. At one point, Anura even suggested continuing with Ranil’s economic policies, implying that the NPP might follow the same course as Ranil in cooperation with the IMF. On other occasions, however, they have spoken of promoting state intervention in the economy. They have yet to present a clear plan on how to implement their promises, such as tax relief, catching corrupt individuals, and attracting foreign investment.

Nevertheless, the majority of those attracted to the NPP were supporters of Gotabaya Rajapaksa in the last election. These individuals, now disillusioned and angry, hold deep resentment towards the Rajapaksas and seem to have joined the NPP as a way to teach the Rajapaksas a lesson. Another reason for their support is their grand expectations from the NPP, such as wage increases, tax relief, and punishment for corrupt officials. The NPP has made various promises to different professional groups and trade unions to win their support. As a result, the NPP will face the challenge of meeting these expectations if they come to power. If they fail to deliver on these promises, the very groups that support them now could become their downfall. Moreover, it will be difficult to implement their plan for restructuring loss-making institutions while keeping various factions happy. Another challenge lies in their foreign policy, particularly concerning how they will manage India’s strategic investment interests in Sri Lanka. There is also concern that if the NPP wins, their emphasis on empowering the lower strata of society could lead to significant unrest. Certain statements made by some of their leaders have contributed to this fear, which the NPP leadership must address swiftly.

Sajith Premadasa

Sajith Premadasa’s campaign is strengthened by the presence of capable individuals within his team, particularly in the economic sphere. Key figures such as Kabir Hashim, Harsha de Silva, and Eran Wickramaratne provide him with a significant advantage. Additionally, the inclusion of Patali Champika Ranawaka, who is widely respected for his capabilities, further boosts Sajith’s position. Sajith has also managed to secure the support of the Muslim and Tamil communities. Sajith presents himself as a social democrat who aims to prevent wealth concentration among a small group and reduce the gap between the rich and the poor. For a long time, he has built an image as a friend of the poor, helping to bolster his appeal in rural areas. This mirrors the image cultivated by his father. In terms of economic and foreign policy, there is little difference between Sajith’s approach and Ranil’s. However, Sajith is perceived as more people-friendly than Ranil.

Sajith’s biggest drawback lies in his inconsistent behaviour. His tendency to engage in activities such as operating buses and playing cricket for publicity has made him a subject of ridicule in society. Moreover, his efforts to showcase his knowledge of English or other subjects have backfired, turning him into a figure of fun once again. It is difficult to determine how much this will impact his voter base, but many question whether he has the competence and experience to lead a bankrupt country. There is also concern in society about the possibility of his close family members becoming a burden on the country, as happened during his father’s time in power.

Namal Rajapaksa

Namal Rajapaksa has entered the political arena primarily to secure the foundation for his future. If he were to step aside at this moment, he could risk losing the support he currently has. Additionally, the faction still loyal to the Rajapaksa family might become disillusioned. Namal’s efforts are focused on preserving this base of support. Politically, Namal has shown a certain level of maturity, which is evident in his speeches. He is essentially continuing the political legacy of his father, adopting similar nationalist themes in his campaign. Although Namal may not secure a significant number of votes this time, it’s clear that he cannot be dismissed from the political scene altogether. We remember Ferdinand Marcos, the dictator who was exiled from the Philippines in 1986, only to see his son return to power in 2022. Similarly, Namal Rajapaksa is not without the potential for a political comeback. It does not take long for voters to forget the past.

Nuwan Bopage

In this election, Nuwan Bopage represents the People’s Struggle Group, a faction of young radicals. This group consists of Marxists, revolutionaries, socialists, and those who advocate for systemic change. They were a united front during the Galle Face protest. Compared to other candidates, they have proposed the most radical solutions. Their agenda includes abolishing the executive presidency and presenting a solution to the national issue that goes beyond the 13th Amendment by advocating for self-governance. They have also completely rejected the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and neoliberal economic policies, opposing the liberal agendas of other candidates.

Critics argue that these proposals are impractical and cannot be implemented under the current global circumstances. They claim that such promises can only be made by a party that does not prioritize gaining power. But it is understandable, as believers of socialism, why they do not want to compromise their ultra-left ideology.

Conclusion

On September 21st, regardless of who wins the presidency, Sri Lanka faces a very challenging and difficult future. As former deputy central bank governor Dr. W. A. Wijewardena recently pointed out, Sri Lanka must maintain a growth rate of 8-9% annually over the next 25 years to deliver prosperity to its people. Therefore, it is crucial that the person who comes to power focuses on the country’s future development strategies rather than making popular political promises. Without a clear and visionary policy, or if an unfavourable external event occurs, the country could fall back into crisis. Relying entirely on the tourism industry and remittances from foreign workers is extremely risky, as these can be quickly affected by external factors. Therefore, whoever comes to power will have to govern the country with the utmost care, as if walking on a razor’s edge. Priority must be given to rebuilding foreign reserves and repaying debts, which means there will be a need for continued austerity.

Additionally, the composition of the next parliament could be vastly different from what we anticipate. There is a possibility that no single party will secure a majority, leading to a situation where all parties will be forced to work together. Otherwise, the upcoming period may become a time of significant political upheaval.