By Asoka S. Seneviratne –

Prof. Asoka.S. Seneviratne

Holding political rallies by presidential candidates in every corner of the country and disclosing their programs and policies for the next five years are familiar events these days. The political manifesto of the NPP will be presented to the people soon. Indeed, the NPP, knowing the country’s economic problems and how most people are suffering miserably, has indicated the core of their programs and policies over the last two years or so. Also, it should be noted that it is not economic problems and hardships alone; there are governance problems that hinder or affect the welfare and well-being of the people. Given the above, the NPP always highlights the economic and governance issues at the center of its program and policies. In other words, only by addressing and resolving economic and governance problems simultaneously, the NPP will be able to meet the expectations of the people and the country. Furthermore, the program and policies contain immediate measures that the NPP will provide to relieve the people after winning the presidential election on 21 September 2024. The purpose of this article is to explain the immediate relief measures that the NPP will initiate after 21 September 2024 in the context of the IMF program that is currently being implemented.

Urgent Economic Problems: The Escalating Cost of Living

The country’s people are currently grappling with severe economic problems or challenges, including the escalating cost of living and the repercussions of IMF programs aimed at economic recovery. However, the NPP is committed to addressing these issues, offering hope and optimism for a better future. Indeed, the escalating cost of living is the foremost burning issue for all low- and middle-income households. Given the above, the country witnessed an array of strikes by trade unions, and the government addressed and resolved the workers’ concerns using tear gas and water cannons. There are many aspects of increasing the cost of living. One is the political parties and politicians who caused shortages of gas, fuel, electricity, and medicines, and hence the skyrocketed prices, but now stand on the other side and blame. Except for the NPP, others are the same political parties, and politicians are divided and blame each other, among which people have been like sandwiches. Political parties and politicians from the top to the members of the parliament cannot understand the simple economics that when shortages are there, prices increase so that if the wages are not rising simultaneously, it affects the people because of the actual income (real income) or the volume/quantity the goods and services that can be purchased per Rs 100 as an example will reduce. Political leaders and politicians do not feel the increasing cost of living because they are always rich due to asset accumulation for generations or an array of privileges they lavishly enjoy. But for most people, it is only wages or income from self-employment. The NPP has continuously voiced in the parliament and public rallies that the increasing cost of living and, hence, the hardships faced by the people must be addressed and resolved as the foremost concern. Given the above, the NPP will work to provide tax relief (i.e., tax reduction or tax removal) with VAT on (i) food, (ii) medicine, (ii) education, and health-related essentials to provide relief to the people because they face mounting hardships with the exorbitant prices of the above. The provision of tax relief as an immediate measure will become a reality after 21 September 2024 so that people will see and feel the difference now and then, based on the reduced cost of living. This means people can buy more or more goods and services for Rs—100.

Governance concerns of NPP

It is customary to refer to good governance, which contains many elements that lay the foundation for stable and continuous economic growth and development. Good governance always supports, accommodates, or enhances the welfare and well-being of the people in many ways. Accordingly, restoring law and order is the foundation. It is an open truth that law and order are not equally applicable to all citizens, and people are unhappy because it is not justice for all. Because they are politicians, related to political parties, and wealthy, the law is amenable so that law and order do not apply to all equally. In most cases, impunity has become the norm. Under the NPP government after 21 September 2024, law and order will undoubtedly be relevant and applicable to all, from the president of Sri Lanka to the ordinary people or grassroots. In other words, if the law is violated, due punishment by the law will be ruled. The above will be a massive change in the right direction so people can sense and feel it is becoming part and parcel of life.

Another element of good governance is eliminating corruption, fraud, waste, mismanagement, nepotism etc. The above applies to the president, bureaucrats, and everyone related to management. When the top is corrupted, it affects whole management structures to be corrupted. Fortunately, NPP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) is corrupt-free and has clean hands. He is the only leader who is corrupt-free and well-known to the opposition and the rest of the world. In other words, when the top is corruption-free, it will undoubtedly trickle down. This will be the reality after 21 September 2024, and the people and the country will be convinced.

How NPP could provide relief to people

The opposition, including the government, questions the NPP and how it could help with the increasing cost of living because they know only how to create hardships for people. Furthermore, they argue that the country with the IMF program carved out on rock cannot be changed. The above shows the need for foresight, knowledge, and understanding. The NPP is rich in the above. Accordingly, NPP has programs or strategies. After 21 September 2024, the first strategy is for the NPP government to slash all huge and unnecessary expenditures amounting to billions.  This will compensate for what will be deprived due to the abovementioned tax relief. Along with the above, the NPP government will focus on priorities that enhance the welfare and well-being of the people. The second strategy is the VAT reduction of the essentials, as indicated above. The next question is how to compensate for the decrease in tax because it concerns the IMF in the context of fiscal consolidation.  Given the above, the third strategy is adopting strict tax compliance, and enhancement of the administration certainly will make a massive difference in increasing tax revenue. The fourth strategy is recovering the billions of unpaid taxes following the due legal process, which is possible. In short, the kings of tax evaders for billions are with the opposition.  The strategies mentioned above or measures will significantly help fiscal consolidation or not resorting to borrowing, which will impact many spheres, increasing the total debt burden and risking sustainable debt management, which is the current commitment to the IMF.

NPP and working with the IMF

It is a reality that, one way or another, the future NPP government will have to work with the IMF program. The government argues that even a word of the agreement with the IMF can be changed to imply that it has been carved out of a rock, which is a lousy statement. Only the death has been carved out on rock so the future NPP government can work with the IMF to defend what it is looking for and meet the people’s expectations. Generally, given an agreement with the IMF, what Sri Lanka is fundamentally looking for is instrumental because((i) changing a program, (ii) reforming a program, and (iii) modification and adoption of a program have different meanings, approaches, and implications. For an example, if the change of the program is a concern, there is a massive volume of work to be done by a county to ensure that the expected change will guarantee the expected outcome of the agreement. This is most unlikely because a country goes to the IMF as a last resort, so the agreed program conditionalities are crucial to restoring a collapsed economy like Sri Lanka. I wrote above because many politicians do not focus on what they want to discuss with the IMF or know what engagement they need with the IMF.

At the moment, there is a grave need to provide relief to the people. Given the above, the NPP may seek modification and adoption, which is feasible with the IMF. Even President Ranil Wickremesinghe states that the IMF program cannot be changed and has submitted an income tax reduction proposal, which may be self-defeating. I wrote previously that the notation that the IMF program cannot be changed is a lousy statement. Essential elements must be fulfilled to work with the IMF to provide relief. First, the NPP will set up the house properly before working with the IMF. Regarding the above, two requirements are (i) strictly adhere to law and order, (ii) have the utmost commitment to dealing with corruption, fraud, waste, mismanagement, and nepotism to provide the foundation of good governance. The leadership of the NPP can provide the above compared to the others or the opposition because they cannot follow and adhere to the two requirements mentioned above based on anti-governance practices that are part and parcel of their life.

As per my experience, IMF programs/policies can be modified if Sri Lanka is able to submit buy-in proposals to the IMF that will not risk or endanger the objective of the IMF program that is currently adopted. This means avoiding any derailment of fiscal consolidation and sustainable debt management, providing the foundation of debt repayment as agreed upon, which must be part and parcel of the proposals the IMF can accept to be considered. In short, any proposal to the IMF must guarantee that the IMF program objectives must be met, which is the core of the agreement.  Compared with the opposition parties, including the government, the NPP program that is seeking modification can be rich because (i) utmost commitment and dedication to eliminating all forms of corruption and frauds, etc., (ii) utmost commitment to slashing all unnecessary expenditure and hence expenditure prioritization on economic growth and development (iii) increased revenue via enhanced tax compliance and tax administration (iv) and utmost commitment to fiscal consolidation as per IMF. The above is possible only for NPP or AKD because his hands are clean, his management team is identical to AKD, and except for working to meet the expectation of the people and the nation, they do not have any agenda of self-benefits or asset accumulation along with utmost credibility, responsibility, transparency, accountability, and trust on their part. As for the opposition parties, the NPP does not boast that it will undoubtedly change the IMF programs when they are in power. Instead, the NPP knows what needs to be done systematically and strategically and how to convince the IMF accordingly. Undoubtedly, the IMF will accommodate the future NPP government well because it knows the nature and character of the people sitting in front of it. The IMF knows well that they are not the individuals involved and contributed to the economy’s collapse. This means that the IMF will welcome and accept the NPP team for discussion on providing relief to people with long-term objectives of sustainable debt management and debt repayment as agreed for stable and sustainable economic growth and development in the country.

NPP and United Sri Lanka

In the context of united Sri Lanka, the NPP will win the presidential election on 21 September 2024, and first to relieve the people. This is important. As a habit, NPP and its leadership often go to the North and East to be part and parcel with the people. For the NPP, all are Sri Lankans within a united country. NPP does not talk to the people with a heap of promises to please the people, and the people well understand this. The NPP’s concern is to provide and ensure the basic needs are met in a safe and secure environment as the foundation for a better future. Given the above, NPP has won the people’s trust, which is significant, while other political leaders and political parties go to the North and East once every five years to see the landscape. In short, NPP and its leadership anchor reconciliation for a united country that will receive the support of most of the voters North and East, similar to the rest of the government winning the presidential election on 21 September 2024.

NPP and the Remnants of Aragalaya  – the end of family and class political culture  

Aragalaya in July 2022 was a type of political Tsunami due to two kinds of political remnants or leftovers that further strengthened the solid foundation of NPP to win the presidential election of 21 September 2024 and, hence, to provide relief to the people with immediate measures.

First is the family politics—still from one generation to the next, essentially to the “son” from the father or from that “class” to the next only, even after 76 years of independence, that vividly shows the part of the highly underdeveloped political culture of the country and hence it provides a suitable environment for an easy win to NPP. Indeed, knowing well that the NPP will win, it is unfortunate to see a few young people around the abovementioned remnants without considering the country’s future and generations. In short, they have lost their senses in many ways, helping from one generation to the next, or class, ultimately losing their generation. In other words, they may contribute to the widening gap between the privileged and the poor, mounting hardship for the latter, and social deprivation. Finally, the NPP has to help and rescue them in the future.

The second remnant is related to the political parties belonging to Green and Blue. Green, or UNP, is no longer; SJB is a remnant of UNP. UNP’s symbol, the giant elephant, is now reduced to the size of a gas cylinder after two years of Aragalaya. It will not need refilling after 21 September 2024. The destiny Blue of SLFP is similar to the above; SLPP is the remnant. Furthermore, “Hand,” the symbol of SLFP, is left with one finger remnant, confined to a highly intellectual law professional caught by an infamous Polonnuwara politician. Generally, except for the NPP, other political parties are politically remanent, with some even having no party symbols. Some disintegrated political parties and their leaders or members stand with the aid of political alliances because they cannot face the challenges imposed by the NPP. Some political proxies are there to weaken the NPP, as there are no other alternatives for them. Generally, the opposition to the NPP is a remnant of family generation politics and political parties that will never impose any form of challenge to the NPP.

Given the above, 21 September 2024 will mark the end of the remnant of family politics and political party remnants as most of the 17.1 million voters, or certainly more than 10 million, are with the NPP. As a result, a new generation of young people will undertake the governance system in the country under the leadership of the NPP leader, Anura Kumara Dissanayake. In other words, unprecedented numbers of young and old attending the NPP political rallies in each corner of the country will undoubtedly make the leader of the NPP the next president because there is no challenge to the NPP leader. Given the above, people and the country will be relieved immediately and in the medium and long term towards stability and sustainable economic growth and development without falling into a debt trap again but with prosperity for the people and the country.   

*The writer worked as the Special Advisor to the Office of the President of Namibia and was a Senior Consultant with UNDP for 16 years. He worked as a Senior Economist with the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (1972-1993) before he migrated to New Zealand.