27 September, 2020

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Don’t Underestimate Rajapaksa

By R. Hariharan

 Col. (retd) R.Hariharan

Col. (retd) R.Hariharan

After President Mahinda Rajapaksa and his surprise challenger Maithripala Sirisena, General Secretary of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), who quit his office as Minister, filed their nominations for the Presidential election on January 8, 2015 the contest has become exciting.

Maithripala’s move came as a boon to the opposition parties who were struggling to find a common strategy to stop the Rajapaksa juggernaut rolling for a third term in office. The opposition United National Party (UNP) and a few other SLFP leaders and Bandaranaike family loyalists led by former President Mrs Chandrika Kumaratunga quickly got together to name Sirisena (full name: Palle Watte Gamaralalage Maithreepala Yapa Sirisena) as the common opposition candidate of the National Democratic Front.

Undoubtedly, Sirisena’s “betrayal” has queered Rajapaksa’s calculated strategy to get elected for a third term as President. Ever since he got reelected as President in 2009 he made his move with an eye on a third term. First he gained two thirds majority the United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA) coalition in Parliament in the 2010 election. He managed to get the constitution amended to lift the restriction on holding the office of the president for more than two terms. He also managed to enlarge the Executive President’s powers to appoint the head of judiciary and the election commissioner by getting the constitution amended.

Mahinda and MaithriWhile this was as planned, his popularity rapidly declined after the Rajapaksa family firmly ensconced itself in positions of power to control finances and dispense favours. The Party took a backseat, leading to widespread corruption, lawlessness and cronyism. Opposition and critical media were hounded and xenophobia nurtured. To cut down his losses the President advanced the presidential election by two years.

All of sudden Rajapaksa finds Sirisena, the long-term party loyalist turned “renegade,” is threatening to derail the Rajapaksa gravy train. He has gathered not only the support within the Party but also managed to get the support of the UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe and the Democratic Party (DP) Leader Sarath Fonseka, subsuming their personal ambitions.

With “defeat Rajapaksa” becoming the political flavour of the day, the right wing Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) parted company with the UPFA, its long term ally and signed a MoU with Sirisena to affirm its solidarity.

Sirisena’s allies are no models of clean political conduct. Sirisena’s agenda evolved with them for his campaign include the abolition of executive presidency “within 100 days of his election as President and Ranil Wickremesinghe as Prime Minister”, reintroduction of the 17th amendment and abolition of the 18th amendment to the Constitution that has enabled Rajapaksa to seek more than two terms, cleaning up government corruption and full implementation of LLRC recommendations as suggested by the UN Human Rights Commission.

Caught off guard, the President in his initial reaction held a veiled threat to the defectors. He thundered “I have their files and documents which will be very detrimental to their well being. I will not use them against those who had left betraying the party, but I warn them not to throw stones from inside glass houses.” Though later he toned down his remark, it seemed to have worked with many potential defectors of the SLFP lying low for the time being.

The President, after deliberating with his cabinet and advisors, seems to have evolved his tactics to handle Sirisena. Talking to media editors at a breakfast meeting Rajapaksa identified former President Chandrika Kumaratunga as “the main contender in the race” and she was “using Maithripala Sirisena.” This was to trivialize Sirisena’s challenge by attributing it to Mrs Kumaratunga’s machinations and not to the shortcomings of his rule.

More devious was Rajapaksa’s tongue in cheek remark at the editor’s meeting that Ranil Wickremesinghe was “the best candidate out of the three because only he has a party machinery.” This was probably made to sow doubts among some of the UNP leaders locked in internal squabble to dissipate the UNP support to Sirisena.

‘Foreign conspiracy’ to destabilise Sri Lanka is a perennial ploy in Rajapaksa’s political strategy to whip up nationalist sentiments. This time also the UNP has become the target of such allegations by UPFA leaders. Resettlement Minister Gunaratne Weerakoon alleged the outgoing US ambassador Michele Sison offered him a green card and a house in the US to induce him to defect from the government.

Another well worn Sri Lanka political strategy is to induce defection of leaders on the eve of elections. Both sides have adopted it. Rajapaksa has the money and muscle power and the instrument of government to do a better job of it. In spite of this, not only Sirisena but a few other ministers have quit their office to join the opposition ranks. One of them, Minister Navin Dissanayake, son of the late Gamini Dissanayake, who crossed over to the opposition said he was offered Rs 10 million to stay in the SLFP.

But Rajapsa is a past-master in the defection game. So it was not surprising to see some prominent political personalities – UNP General Secretary Tissa Attanayake cutting his two decades of association with UNP and the JHU Deputy General Secretary Udaya Gammanpila – to cross over to Rajapaksa’s ranks.

Sirisena would need the whole hearted support of traditional UNP voters if he has to put up a strong fight which is not going to be an easy exercise if we go by the experience of Sarath Fonseka, the common opposition candidate in the last presidential election. The UNP leaders would need to work hard to ensure its loyal votes go in favour of Sirisena.

In addition, Sirisena needs to charm the fence-sitting opposition parties like the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) and the reluctant Tamil National Alliance (TNA).

Though the JVP is keen on defeating Rajapaksa and abolishing executive presidency abolished, it has not shown keenness in supporting Sirisena. So Sirisena may not be to get most of the JVP votes.

The TNA have a track record of getting most of the Tamil votes. Their support is important in any close contest. TNA still retains the strength to persuade Tamils to vote for Sirisena. But the TNA is still undecided on its stand. In a Daily Mirror report TNA leader Suresh Premachandran has articulated the dilemma saying:“There is no solution offered to the problems of the Tamil people. There is no plan to resettle displaced Tamils. It seems that the common candidate is endorsing the views of Sinhala extremist forces backing him. Let alone a political solution, there is no approach even to address day to day problems.” But Sirisena probably offers a better option as has promised to clip the wings of executive president to make him more accountable and the TNA may veer round to support him.

Muslim parties as usual are split in their support to Rajapaksa. The decision of Minister Bathiuddin’s Muslim Congress to support Rajapaksa was not unexpected. The SLMC, which commands more Muslim votes, had been peeved with Rajapaksa over his inaction to curb the Bodhu Bala Sena (BBS)’s violent hate-Muslim campaign that resulted in loss of lives and property. The SLMC parted with the UPFA on the same issue. This would make the SLMC uncomfortable to go with Sirisena particularly after he signed the MoU with JHU as it had been providing political support to the BBS’s anti-Muslim campaign.

With such a line up of support, can Sirisena defeat President Rajapaksa? If we go by the upbeat mood in the opposition ranks it would seem so. Sirisena, with his comparatively clean image (unlike Rajapaksas) and established party credentials, does have chance to win if he can swing at least 15 percent of SLFP loyalist votes in his favour. And that might not be enough unless Sirisena can make a dent in the strong South Sinhala support for Rajapaksa.

Despite all the complaints of misrule and corruption against Rajapaksa, can Sirisena a comparatively less known figure, compete with Rajapaksa hailed as a national hero for defeating the LTTE and eliminating Prabhakaran? That is the moot question.

The bottom line is the opposition cannot afford to underestimate Rajapaksa’s strengths.

Moreover, the politically savvier Rajapaksa has been preparing for the election well in advance. In the Budget for 2015 a hefty hike for all government servants and freebies including heavily subsidised offer of motorcycles to government field staff have been announced. Similarly interest rates for senior citizens’ deposits have been hiked to 12 percent.

The government’s allocation of Rs 450 million to each of the select parliamentarians (including to those who cross over from the opposition) as development fund to fund over 150 special development projects is yet another instance of how government funds are ‘used’ to garner support for Rajapaksa.

Rajapaksa dirty tricks department is already in action. There are reports of misuse of government machinery to support the President. A number of complaints against the ruling coalition for attacking opposition candidates and leaders have been reported.

For instance Western Provincial Council SLFP member Hirunika Premachandra fled the country with her mother after she received threats to her life after she decided to back Sirisena. Of course, she is back now to campaign for him.

One redeeming feature is India, the favourite whipping boy always accused of meddling in Sri Lankan elections, seems to have taken a backseat. Probably China will replace it soon as scams involving the Chinese are surfacing now. But the Chinese are clever, they never dirty their hands in politics; they prefer to use money.

There is yet another important factor in Sri Lanka politics – astrology. President can probably relax as his astrologer seems to have predicted that he would be re-elected for the third time and a fourth time as well! We don’t know what Sirisena’s birth chart says; I suppose January 8 will decide his future regardless of his astral predictions.

*Col R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, served with the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka as Head of Intelligence. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the South Asia Analysis Group. E-Mail: colhari@yahoo.com   Blog: http://col.hariharan.info 

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Latest comments

  • 4
    2

    Colonel,

    You said ‘don’t underestimate Rajapaksa’.

    Were you hinting at a coup d’état? Was your reference to India’s ‘redeeming feature’ a tacit acknowledgement that India would not tolerate any nonsense from Rajapaksa.

    If that is what you meant to say, then I say Sri Lanka has reason to hope for the best.

    • 12
      2

      Looking at it from inside and outside from a Chinese point of view

      I would say the greens would carry it all the way for CC to win

      Year of 2015 is Wooden Sheep.
      Because Wood (tree) is connected to the color of Green.

      Therefore, 2015 is the Year of Green Wooden Sheep – WoodSheepFemale .

      Lungi hatao!

      Pungi bajao!

      Modi Mooth Maro pyar se sangam Moraji ka Auto Urine Therapy.

      Panga

  • 2
    0

    Colonel missed here two exceptional incidents that
    Rajapaksha faced in his campaigns.One,he was not
    allowed to continue his speech in Dambulla and the
    hoot and boo at the stadium in Pallekale where his
    campaign was screened.What these show is similar to
    the situation late Premadas was in lately.People
    show signs of frustration of their funny tactics of
    underestimating people’s common sense capacity.From
    the beginning Rajapaksha very courageously displayed
    to the whole world,let alone the country,his strong
    desire to build up a FAMILY EMPIRE following the line
    of DS,SIRIMAVO and to some extent even Premadasa.
    All what Rajapaksha keeps doing is strictly following
    his predecessors,tit for tat and nothing else and
    only one exception,JRJ didn’t have family ambitions.
    Another important point is that,as a man fully focusing
    on family reign,will Rajapaksha give up six yrs for
    four yrs,let alone another term?DEFENSE man being his
    brother and Sirisena praising the forces in every
    platform is a worrying sign.

  • 4
    1

    R. Hariharan –

    RE: Don’t Underestimate Rajapaksa

    Don’t Underestimate DictatorRajapaksa

    Medamulana MaRa is a liar..He Bought Tissa for money.. Not everybody is for sale

    [Edited out]

  • 4
    2

    Just lay off the ballot this time unlike last time. We will never forget how the election commissioner was forced to declare a winner who was not just to “keep the military out of politics”. We can see how even now the bait is being dangled. Give back the jewellery and give back the land and give us the railway and you will have your third term. We can see very clearly the how the kautilyan mind works. Kautilya will never best our own native wit and wisdom portrayed in the antics of Andare.

    • 7
      1

      fact o file:

      Apey ratte Cola (leaves) and they are the green so it was christened Colaba.

      2015 is the year of the wooden (green) female sheep.

      Everybody think green and vote it’s good for what you eat which is what you are.

      Colaba Collo Jaya wewa!

  • 1
    1

    The good Colonel has built a good grasp of Sri Lanka’s confusing and conflicting post-1987 history. His minor foibles such as confusing Rs.10 million with Rs.100 million (the Navin Dissanayake cross-over) can be excused. Or did he make the error as Indians speak in terms of crores of rupees rather than millions.

    Rajapakse is a man in a hurry. He seems to be bent on a life-mission to elevate the Rajapakse name to those of those great Govigama families of the Sinhala South – the Senanayakes, the Bandaranaikes and the Wickremasinghe-Jayawardenas. Men in a hurry often make lethal mistakes. Mahinda R probably calculates his gamble to include one more name in the famous historical names in recent Sinhala history will find accord with those Sinhalese south of the Bentara river and, for this, he presumes they will forget his many other blatant ommissions. Many leaders in history have taken risks to gain for them a permanent place in their history – irrespective of whether they are convinced or not if they are deserving of these.

    The JHU and sections of the JVP working against the Rajapakses can harm the regime. Both carry strong support of the politicised Buddhist clergy. To this band of the aggrieved, if perchance, the BBS also joins in then the history of the regime will be as that predicted by that tasteless PM Dimu Jayaratne “the Pope will be greeted by a new
    President” By the way, why did one of the Bishops in Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith’s delegation to visit the President pose the scary question what he would do if Rajapakse were to lose? But don’t write off Mahinda Rajapakse just yet. He has the capacity to spring many a surprise – a master at securing victory from the jaws of defeat and certainly not the other way around – a Ranil speciality.

    R. Varathan

  • 1
    12

    What kind of a political annalist this man Hariharan is? Even a fool knows that the JVP is telling people to vote for Sirisena from the day one. SLMC and TNA will instruct their raciest followers to vote for Sirisena only at the last minute because that may well lead Sinhala Buddhists not voting Sirisena. TNA and SLMC followers are voting Sirissena not for any love him but to achieve their ulterior motives. And the majority Sinhala Buddhists know this.

    I live in a village. JHU is an anathema for Sinhala Buddhists for it is truly a divided party now. And I know that it is BBS that will influence by far a vast majority (70%) of 70% Sinhala Buddhists to vote Rajapakse. And that is 49% of all voters to Rajapakse. Going by the recent election results, at least 25% of minorities who admire peace and development (25% – Tamils and Muslims) would vote for Rajapakse. Also 50% of 5% Sinhala Christians will vote for Rajapakse. Hence, Rajapakse will end up getting at least 57% of the popular vote. That means, Mahinda Rajapakse will win with a majority of 2,000,000 votes.

    • 6
      1

      mechanic

      “Even a fool knows that the JVP is telling people to vote for Sirisena from the day one.”

      The JVP as usual while sitting on the fence it is not supporting the opposition but opposing the incumbent. JVP is trying to have the cake and eat it.

      JVP goes to the people and whispers their message to them.

      Would you say JVP is supporting the opposition? No they would never. Probably the message is too weak to hear you misheard it. The party, its leadership and its supporters backed MR in 2005.

      Tricky Dicky (Dissanayake) is running his own campaign to fool the voters.

    • 2
      1

      Mechanic,

      Take your meds and go to bed.

  • 0
    8

    Quite obviously Col. Hariharan keeps a close eye on Sri Lanka even though his family left the island long ago. However there are a few contentious issues in the above article.

    There is no doubt that Rajapakse’s popularity has waned, and some of this is self-inflicted. But to deny ‘foreign conspiracy’ is pie in the sky. The US attempted to control Gen. Fonseka soon after the war ended, and interfere in Sri Lankan internal affairs. India has been doing the same from the days of Indira Gandhi, though not in the same manner as the US. The attempt to gradually de-legitimise the Rajapkase government is quite in the manner in which the US operates when the government is not too ‘friendly’ to the US. There is no doubt that the US wanted a friendlier government in Colombo, and wanted Sri Lanka weaned away from the Chinese sphere of influence, in it’s own desire to become the sole world power. India is bound to feel the same pressures in time to come.

    The ethnic parties behave differently. The TNA has according to some sources already thrown in it’s support behind the opposition, though understandably it is unhappy to do this openly. The TNA have never cooperated with Rajapakse, even though there were hopes of this when an ‘educated’ man was elected as it’s leader. At least a few Tamil voices have been heard exhorting the people to think of themselves as Sri Lankans, which in itself is a positive sign. The Muslims have done very well under Rajapkase in spite of the little difficulties they’ve faced recently.

  • 3
    1

    We all knew how this colonel misled Govs by his analysis which led to 10000s of innocent people and children in 2009 and back in indian peace keeping mission. Lier.

  • 7
    1

    Hari hari Bari Bari Ai aney Ai???

    Come come it’s the Hindians +South Hindians
    (eg The Hindu , authoe Hari marry, south block)

    who orchestrated the third term of passé because of

    basil baby booty bombay meir hai!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRoXIU4GgX0

    Bombay Meri Hai – Mignone & The Jetliners

  • 2
    1

    Rajapaksa has always operated at the lowest level which has been natural to him. So the question of under estimating him does not arise. Bensen

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