14 April, 2024

Blog

Elections & The Economy

By Ameer Ali

Dr. Ameer Ali

Election fever is gripping Sri Lanka. It appears that a General Election could precede the Presidential Election mainly because of Ranil Wickremesinghe’s (RW) rising unpopularity largely due to his IMF led economic recovery path. IMF for its part has no choice but to slow down its program after completing its second review, because election fever demands more time and energy from parliamentarians outside the legislature than inside, and consequently it would not be possible for the parliament to pass the necessary reforms required for the recovery. Economy therefore is destined to take the back seat and allow politics to dominate national attention for the rest of the year.

However, a few developments on the economic front deserves a close look. The first is the appreciation of the rupee against the dollar and more importantly against the currencies of Sri Lanka’s trading partners such as India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan and a few others. It seems that RW and his cabinet ministers are overjoyed by this appreciation and claims credit for their economic policies. Nothing could be further from the truth. Two economists, Bram and Howard Nicholas, in a critical analysis of the situation (see Daily Financial Times, 12 Feb. & 14 March 2024) and applying the Economist Big Mac composite index for their calculation had found that the rupee had appreciated by 46% in January 2024 to 52% in February and is expected to appreciate even further to 63%. Normally, appreciation of a currency in the long run reflects the relative productive efficiency of an economy and signals robust economic growth. But in the short term it could happen artificially due to import controls, capital controls, inflow of funds from repatriates, foreign investors and aid agencies, and even from an unexpected influx of foreign tourists. All this account for the current overvaluation of the rupee. But the hidden danger in this hike is that it kills not only the export competitiveness of export industries but also hits the pay packets of workers employed in those industries. Overvaluation discourages the trading partners demand for our exports, which would hit the profit levels of exporters and would encourage them to maintain their profit margin by reducing the cost and especially wages of workers. Amidst the rising cost of living due to government’s tight fiscal policy this wage reduction is bound to lead to unrest.

At the same time overvaluation would make foreign goods cheaper at home provided sellers allow the benefit to reflect through lower prices. That does not seem to be happening at the moment. Neither the CBSL chief’s boast over falling rate of inflation nor the appreciating rupee had benefited ordinary householders. However, to those who have the money to spare foreign travel becomes cheaper and given the parlous state of the economy that would encourage even more brain drain. On the whole, rupee overvaluation has become a “silent killer”, as the economists point out. Finally, when the existing controls are relaxed and when talks over foreign debt restructuring completed there will be an avalanche of depreciation which would spell disaster. This is why the IMF recovery agenda needs to be accommodated within a home-grown solution under a bird cage economy model as discussed previously (see Colombo Telegraph 1 March, 2024).   

That means the economy at present is not a strong wicket to bat on for either RW and his UNP or to their coalition partner SLPP. Opposition parties are certain to bowl them out on that wicket. But do the opposition parties except NPP have any alternative route other than surrendering to IMF? So far there is no evidence to show they have one.  This is why the next election if it were to be dominated by economic issues would be a contest between NPP’s system change with a market model cleansed of its rigidities and the IMF path embraced by its opponents. However, certain recent developments indicate that the campaign would shift more towards the usual emotive issues like Sinhala nationalism and Buddhism than economic alternatives.  Except for NPP there is a bankruptcy of economic policies among all opposition parties.

Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s book “The Conspiracy to Oust Me from the Presidency” sets the tone for what to expect in this campaign. It was GR’s and SLPP’s campaigners who went door to door to canvass Sinhala votes by convincing the voters of a lurking threat to Buddhism and the Sasana in the wake of the 2019 Easter Bombing, which strangely killed Christians and not Buddhists, that made 69 lakhs of voters to choose GR as President and SLPP as the ruling party. The same Rajapaksas are confident that a repeated performance on the same theme would return them to power again. There are the usual suspects from the Sangha to perform their allotted role in this regard. There are also other groups which are prepared to adopt the same line of campaigning in addition to their specialty in whipping up anti-Indianism and anti-Tamil separatism.

Given these circumstances, RW would prefer the existing coalition strengthened by recruits from Sajit Premadasa’s SJB dissidents to capture government so that he would be in a better position to contest for the presidency.  Secret meetings and lucrative offers are reported to have been made to induce disgruntled elements from SJB to jump fence. There are also the two Muslim parties who are currently with SJB, but history shows that they are an easy prey for money and cabinet positions. This is why even with a promising economic alternative NPP’s chances of winning the race are promising but not guaranteed. There is a substantial percentage of swinging voters who are not committed to any parties but mature enough to discern which party or leaders has the agenda to bring about meaningful economic changes without mortgaging the country to any foreign power. NPP has to win over this percentage. It is a tough ask but if achieved would be a historic landmark in the history of democracy in this country.     

*Dr. Ameer Ali, Business School, Murdoch University, W. Australia

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Latest comments

  • 24
    2

    AA , I’m not an economist . But my take is the current appreciation is more of correction. Seems real to me because upcoming elections or possible outcome is not holding back the appreciation. When LKR dropped during the peak of bankruptcy it was absolute free fall. Just the fact that bankruptcy is not made any worse is good enough for some correction. I really do not see appreciation causing any real/ negative impact on our economic recovery. ( usually it happens with stronger stable currencies where appreciation may negatively affect exports and so on ).

    • 4
      11

      “When LKR dropped during the peak of bankruptcy it was absolute free fall. “
      There was a stupid devaluation that halved the value of the rupee to cause such misery to the public. So inflation was marked at close to 100% etc.

    • 10
      1

      Chiv, AA,
      “I really do not see appreciation causing any real/ negative impact on our economic recovery.”
      I tend to agree with thoughts expressed by Chiv. Take for Instance the case of garment Industry. There are sizeable Imports component – Local being only Labour, and rental (Premises)!! In that instance an appreciation reduces the cost of Import components which is the Major component!! May affect Tea, but that market is western consumerism oriented!! May not affect much and tourism may get a little bit dented, especially low-profile ones, which is not our target market, or should be any time!!?

      • 7
        1

        Mahila, there is more important things than appreciation for Lankans to worry, like reasons for mass resignation of COPE members.

        • 6
          0

          Chiv,
          Ofcourse, that is Important! Would tend to say agree most Important, than any other!??? But none can do anything, until and unless the MODAYA’s voting pattern at General Elections, most Importantly and Presidential Elections to a lesser degree – as we minorities have no control or less control in the matter of 50% + 1 Vote victor!!??? At least if we have educated lot in Parliament, we could have GOOD, CHECKS & BALANCES to control the Runaway Scoundrel of a President!!!??? What could one expect to do with Gamey, Godey, Arachchila, bequeathed with, for in this instance, Gullible Train Travellers from KALUTARA BODHIYA to AMBALANGODA DUWA!!!???
          Unless we educate the voters before next elections, which is NEAR IMPOSSIBILTY; We all are DOOMED!

  • 18
    1

    Ameer Ali is unable to hide his sympathy towards JVP. Good Economist; Poor academic.
    I never for once thought that JVP had a chance; It certainly has a momentum. However, the hurdle is too high for tiny AKD.

    • 5
      6

      “Good Economist; Poor academic.”
      If so, what is the complaint about? Good academics need not be in touch with reality— not that I agree with Dr AA even if he is a great economist.

      • 11
        0

        “not that I agree with Dr AA even if he is a great economist. “
        Don’t say that please! Poor Dr. AA going fill the broken coconut shell with water and commit suicide.
        Who are these croakers anyway he cares about? Frog in the cesspool? Is that another big-headed Paramilitary style illumination?

    • 17
      1

      But Nathan, you never know. Even today, many people are so indifferent.
      Some are very disappointed though . But only they can change it… Maybe they believe in their astrology. They can only talk… walking the talk is far from them.. Human beings and human beasts are two different groups. Unfortunately our country is full or ignorants and beasts.
      And the facts are nothing for them. I feel that this nation should not have been given the right to vote.
      Their voting style is decided at the last moment. Even for a very small gain, they can betray their soul. It’s in their genes. No matter what anyone says or does, it is in their genes. Some underestimate their voting power. After slitting their throats, they relent….not for long, a few days and return to attack mode. This has a lot to do with their civilization. The latest threat is youtubers. Youngsters make YouTube videos of hurting their loved ones. They don’t care about citizen data protection laws. Some don’t even ask questions before getting you on their video.

      • 5
        14

        Super example of misandry is reflected in “leelagemalli’s” words.
        .
        It sounds as though he is expecting an election to be held; and he expects the results to be not to his liking.
        .
        He says that he is a dual citizen, but can’t remember ever voting – and it looks as though that will not change. Why he bothers to write about this country whose people he hates, he obviously doesn’t know. Of course, there’s the Oedipus complex that will not allow him to rest.
        .
        Poor fellow.

        • 22
          1

          Dear Sinhala_Man,
          It is a known that both you and leelagemalli do not exhibit harmony.
          Both of you would do better to leave each other alone.
          There is plenty of good company on CT.

          • 18
            1

            Thanks, Nathan.
            .
            What you say is very true. I shall try to retort less.

            • 17
              0

              Appreciate your humbleness. Thank you.

            • 8
              15

              Dear S-M: I too agree with Nathan. I am sick of reading LM’s comments viz. (1) A harang of filth against Madamulana whom he characterizes as “BPs” (2) The degradation of the simple common man of S/L and now differentiate into “Human Beings” and “Human Beasts (3) Never ending animosity shown against you.

              No solution whatsoever to solve our problems. Ask questions, but do not try to think and suggest a way out.

              Any use getting into discussions with such people? A waste of time.

  • 23
    1

    Umba thumala meka ahuwada? …. Mama tuhumata wadiya therenne naa ……. Everyone is a “Thuma” …… didn’t want to leave anyone out ………. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PrCiBY9uiSI

    Bloody dirty rats, they are trying to put the blame on the Muslims and trying to rouse the ire of the Sinhala Buddhists …….. hope the idiots don’t fall for it once again …….. for the zillionth time ……..

    Like his shirt ……. it’s a typical Lankan “political” shirt …….. worn to garner the last bit of gravitas ……. for whatever crap is spouted.

    Native, gotta get one.

    • 21
      1

      Yes, they will try to rouse communalism, it’s their only hope.
      .
      We’ve got to be vigilant.

      • 15
        0

        S M

        A Muslim Website reported that One in Ten Trusts the Army
        Dictatorship. My long time serious doubt about a possible
        gloomy Future of the country looks like hatching , it’s being
        floated for testing the pulse of Vote enthusiasts in my opinion .

      • 7
        0

        S M ,

        About some months back I called a front line JVP / NPP
        District leader for a decent request and I was told that can be
        done . But since then that figure disappeared from the phone ,
        Second experience . Just now about an hour ago I called
        one of the four most popular and very experienced leaders , to
        report an interesting incident that took place at an important
        govt organisation . The man answered the call . I asked whether
        I can come on WhatsApp and he said nicely yes and the same
        number . There was some difficulty connecting to WhatsApp .
        I then after a couple of minutes rang him , direct dialled him
        about four times each at a minute’s break . No response . Line
        was not busy . Leaders ! Voters ! Future ! I am not going to say
        a word more .

    • 22
      0

      Nimal,
      What a lump of excrement. If guys like this were in charge, are the consequences any surprise?

      • 14
        0

        Hello o.c.,
        The comments under that YouTube video indicate that many are eating it up, readily sympathetic to Gota as the victim! Not surprised though.

    • 7
      0

      Nimal,
      All these Hangers-on are of the Same ILK!? PATENTED!!??

  • 23
    0

    Nearly two years ago, our country was going through turmoil with the President disappearing overnight.
    Now it seems everything is rosy for the well to do. The sufferings of people has increased but not pointed out by the media as they are in the possession of Government stooges. People should realise that biggest hurdle is still to come. People hopefully will get rid of the baddies!

    • 19
      2

      Naman

      “….. our country was going through turmoil with the President disappearing overnight.”

      Actually the supposed strongman was chased out during daytime. He did not have places to go, hide, refuge, ….
      He made tens of thousands of people homeless, stateless refugees, then one day he was eased out of his presidential palace.

      “People should realise that biggest hurdle is still to come. People hopefully will get rid of the baddies!”

      Irrespective of party affiliation the baddies always win/occupy key positions and then appoint their own b***s carriers to key positions.

      Say if AKD wins then we will have all the JVP Dinosaurs (the old guards) are out and about throwing their weight around, nationalisation of A to Z, shortages for ….. they will take this island nation back to dark ages.

      They love to have total control of everything including what we eat, what we read, what we watch, listening to what we talk, …… when do we ease ourselves, …….. erase past history, for them the History start with Rohana Wijeweera’s birth, …. That would be year Zero, … and the history will include how he fought with expansionist Hindians,…..

      • 3
        0

        N V ,

        ” Say if A K D wins . ” Even if he wins , he will not be what he
        promises he will be . They promise to change the country in
        five years , the same country they themselves claim , ruined
        by the rulers of all hues for 75 years . Is it that easy to rebuild ?
        Hard work is the key to success and we are only ready to work
        hard overseas for a better pay . An unskilled Domestic Aid is
        offered at least Rs 150,000.in Saudi . In Europe it is whole
        different with high standard . I do not believe A K D will be
        elected president .

        • 5
          0

          whywhy

          “………………………………………. and we are only ready to work
          hard overseas for a better pay .”

          It is not true our people are ready to work hard only abroad because better of pay. People go abroad because they are assured of relatively better quality of life, better reward for their work, promotion prospects (need not to carry politician’s b***s,… ) law and order, need not to bribe to obtain birth/dead/marriage certificates, need not to fear traffic policemen, no frequent shortages for food, medicine, petrol, water, physical safety, ……. comparatively less violence, ….

          Above all people do not need to put up with religious nutters, political crooks, brutality of police and armed forces, …. …. robber barons, and can avoid super patriots and their reason for their own existence.

          • 2
            0

            N V ,

            Thanks for your reply . “In Europe , it is whole different with high
            standard , ” covers your disagreement reply to my comment .
            I did a comparison with the Mid East and Europe and other
            Industrialised nations . Religious nutters are following the
            crowd wherever they go . Tell me a country where they have not
            taken with them their temples and mosques except some Arab
            countries ! Didn’t ‘super patriots’ come back home to vote for
            Gota N V ? I fully disagree with you buddy that Srilankans want to
            leave the country for quality of life and not for money . Not
            majority , 90 % of them ! But I do respect your right to disagree .

  • 13
    0

    Dr.AA, Election results may not end up in the way predicted here. There are robbers of our national wealth that bankrupted this nation who will control the voting results as otherwise they will end up in jail.

  • 18
    0

    Ali constantly keeps writing about al alternative strategy that the JVP has for improving the economy. He also gives the impression that he is in the know of this strategy. So, why not amidst all this verbiage simply reveal this strategy to us so that we can judge for ourselves which strategy is better. Simply saying system change will not do. What system are we changing to? Is it that much better than the existing system? We got to know before we can decide. So, please Ali, since you keep writing so much about the alternative, can you spell out the features of this alternative, since the JVP itself is silent on this. If you are not in the know, then, you should simply say so instead of deluding us into a false belief that there is a change for the better.

    • 16
      0

      Cicero

      I have repeatedly asked the same question. If I am not mistaken, NPP was against IMF intervention but the impression given subsequently is that NPP will accept IMF bail outs in the short term, although, Dr Ali doesn’t seem to approve. Can Dr A explain his statement in the context of NPP strategy – ‘…do the opposition parties except NPP have any alternative route other than surrendering to IMF?” Obviously, Dr A is not an official spokesman but all these assumptions by NPP supporters have left me confused. There is talk of NPP renegotiating terms & restructuring debt but will donors & lenders play ball just because AKD has a honest face & the NPP consists of intellectuals with integrity?
      MR & GR also had their share of ‘intellectuals’ &, I am sure, will defend allegations of corruption, waste & mismanagement during their watch, therefore, can we accept ‘honesty’ & ‘integrity’ by face value only? A compass unable to point direction is of no use. Dr A can make suggestions & assumptions (right or wrong) but is his wisdom consistent with NPP strategy?

  • 17
    0

    Election = Baby Bottle Teat and the Economy = Empty Baby Bottle .

  • 18
    1

    The mere appreciation of a manipulated currency (not even a dirty float) while the country reels in an economic quagmire is nothing to boast about. With a contracted economy and high inflation, massive unemployment, huge drop in industries and only a somewhat improved forex inflow, the main causes of this failed state’s currency appreciation is due to severe curtailment of imports and hence a sharp drop in demand for hard currencies of trading partners. The parasites that brought this misery must be dispensed with at the earliest opportunity.

    • 9
      0

      You are ABSOLUTELY on the MONEY

  • 7
    1

    “(RW) rising unpopularity largely due to his IMF led economic recovery path…………
    Economy therefore is destined to take the back seat and allow politics to dominate national attention for the rest of the year.

    I will not be going by these quotations in my comment. The comment is going by the general idea of the essay, not by any specific points of it.
    Rapist Army Hooligans are unrealistic barbarians. They wrote many books about the war hoping these will sway away the call for genocide investigation. But nothing about how to fix the destroyed economy of the country. That is why when people went to their palaces asking for answers to poverty, they created the man who got out and ran away, because he did not have any answer. During the war these army hooligans depended on Muslims spies, against Tamils. So, when the Sinhala Buddhist came to their door, they did not have any explanation, but were trying to hide the fact that it was only Muslims who were setting the protests. And strangely, I did not hear from Muslim MPs and ministers commenting anything about this biased, barbaric book. Do Hakeem, even after reading this book, blaming Tamils as begging in international capitals showing their beggar wounds?

  • 6
    1

    IMF attempted to play “Velikku Oonan Satchi ” (Chameleon on the fence witnessed the fence was the perpetrator who ate crops, by nodding its head up and down) IMF issued a biased statement that Langkang has fulfilled its conditions. Its growth rate is high, Exchange rate down and inflation is under control………. Sad fact is none of the matters IMF said above was right. Though the IMF praised the Evil who had pulled Langkang out of its bankruptcy, it did not go to praise Evil that had managed to get three tranches by fulfilling the very first condition that Langkang should obtain debt reduction agreement before the creditor re-starting to throw their golds into the ocean. If the IMF was honest in its praises, it should have commented on why the Evil administration has not submitted the debt reduction agreements. It should have commented whether the missing debt reduction agreements were Evil administration deficiency or purposeful evasion. IBM has no way of being honest on that because IBM worked as a broker of Appe Aanduwa with China and the Paris Club for that negotiation. The Only debt reduction so far obtained is only from EPF Funders. That Evil did on his own. With all other locals, IMF condemned that nasty foxy work of Evil.

  • 6
    1

    Hope is not about leaning on something, when hope is lost, arbitrarily or randomly, but about building something constructively to lean on, reliably. It is about people learning to watch the advancement taking place on the earth and adapting those to them and engaging in the process of leading the world by example, instead of fighting the Red Sea war.
    We are not Abeya Gunawardane of Old Rowdy Royals to know everything. We know only one thing for sure about Sinhala Buddhist politicians’ politics is that we don’t know the bottom of it. So, anything we said about it in the past or about its rehabilitation in the coming election may go wrong. We know the 75 years of dismantling the Island has not ceased as of today and this can stretch into the future long and can keep sinking this Island even deeper than Haiti, one time a haven for rebels of freedom to seek refuge. That is the indicator of the incapacity of the Langkang masses to follow democracy to govern them and rule of law for a peaceful life. Then why this new path? Will that not reverse back again to the past?
    Systemic Change is not a fancy, vogue, vague proposal just to modify the way of thinking, but it is a New Testament of the religion of democracy for the people of this country to start a new life.

  • 6
    2

    Systemic change is a lock and key approach for the bad never again to penetrate people’s life. No more rapist Army, or Sinhala Buddhist prelates guardians of sovereignty! Ballots only; no bullets. People Guardians with elections.
    Systemic change is needed to dismantle and dislodge the grips of the Sinhala Buddhism and the Rapist Army and create the space for democratic leaders to emerge and lead the country without sowing any more violence. Systemic change is not about naming the country as Buddhists’ in the constitution and committing all crimes inside the homes, where happy life is expected to flourish, which is expectedly brought by the government, not by Sinhala Buddhism or by the rapist army tormentors, who are two draconian forces determining the future of the country. In 2019, Masses were tactically convinced that the Sinhala Buddhist land’s sovereignty was in jeopardy by minorities, so a Hitler was needed to lead the Rapist Army into destruction like was in Mullivaikkal. People were harnessed from freely thinking if the Sinhala Buddhism was in danger, how that situation arose, but were Brainwashed to destroy anything shown as Sinhala Buddhists’ enemies. The convulsion for 2nd Mullivaikkal, not reconciliation, delivered only Bankruptcy.
    When the signs start to appear that the Sinhala Buddhism and Rapist Army are relenting their hold on the people’s mind, signs of introduced systemic changes for the new life of the country is appearing.

  • 6
    1

    The specialty about the contemporary cross road that country in now is that it was created by the Protest 2022, rather than NPP. The Protestors failed like all other previous Appe Aanduwa rehabilitation efforts, like the Chandrika regime or Yahapalanaya regime. It is not that Chandrika and Yahapalanaya team failed at their objective, but at the end they bent their courses and fully merged into the sewage flow, losing their identity too. Protesters are ones (mainly Sinhala Buddhists whether the racist class or general masses), once sought a Hitler to save the country, in their previous avatar, only a three years ago. The story of NPP at this juncture is, it is rightly and timely surfing on the new waves where the protestors relinquished. There is no guarantee this new chapter is not going to bend and mix with the flow once again. So, this is the time for the educated people and activist people’s guardianship is needed for NPP to steadily stride into the new path. We can only provide support in setting the objective on where it must end. Where it will end (if it has to be as a good end) is in the people’s hand and on the educated people’s guidance for that, more than they are in the NPP leaders’ hand. The new initiation of the protestors be on two stages:

  • 6
    1

    1). For the first time in Langkang history, an opposition party is being created, in the event if the Main UNP SLFP union fails to take forward democracy, somebody will bring it to the masses. In future, the masses not going to fall on the feet of the rowdies and criminals and pray them as Buddha. If the current criticism against the government continues, Masses will understand that the Indian Pakistani Citizenship Act, MMDA, Sinhala Only, 1972 constitution, 1978 constitution, 18A, 19A all were only to sell the country and deposit it in the bank account of some kleptocrats. In the past, opposition parties always joined the perpetrators in the bids of bigotry. For example, for Sinhala Only, Colvin said “One language two countries, two languages one country” but it did not bear any fruit because Socialist did not maintain opposition against SLFP, but rather partnered with them. This was the case of the 1972 constitution and 1978 constitution. After the 2005 election, ¾ of the JVPyers crossed to the SLFP. Now Anura understands that example for his team must come from within his team; cleaning his own stable (team) is the only tool to clean the filth UNP-SLFP unions speared out. It looks like this time, if the NPP failed to capture power, unlike in the past, they may not abolish the opposition, but may maintain the criticism on Aanduwa until the term ends.

  • 6
    1

    2). If the NPP comes to power, they will have to implement a system change, to make all other the changes permanent. System change is introducing to the masses a new governmental form and a political culture to thrive on basing the modern democratic ideas, flourishing elsewhere, by overriding where and when needed the current Sinhala Buddhist prelates and Rapist Army induced abhorrent norms. The future of the country is not on naming it as “Socialistic, Democratic, Sinhala Buddhist Sri Lanka Republic” by the constitution. Buddhism is only an archaic religion, moderately (not as hard as Islam) resist changes to it. But bending archaic Buddhism’s fundamentals and creating a divisive class and naming it as ” Sinhala Buddhism”and even struggling to export it to the West, instead of learning the Western Science and Commerce and bringing those advances to the masses at home, is only a political opportunism invented by the corrupted local criminal class of politicians. This is why, as per some statistics, the Sinhala Buddhists are thinking that they are living the happiest life by bankrupting the country and by going to fight at the Red Sea in order to get another loan to clear that bankruptcy. Sinhala Buddhism is only a technique, elaboration, or explanation of how to evade or dodge the commons reaping better life from the modern ideas of science, economics, democratic politics………This religion is nothing but brainwashing.

  • 6
    1

    In layman language: “The Sinhala Buddhism is only about how to divert the attention of the masses and drive them into darkness and serve from there as servants of political opportunists and religious barbarians.” Otherwise, why do the people cook and take it to the temple to feed the overfed urchin, while people themselves are fighting like stray dogs on the road for food? If Sinhala Buddhism is about anything, then someone has to explain why in the past for 15,10 or 5 years, the deterioration of the culture accelerated in Southern Langkang. Abundance of murders, suicides, rapes, abortion, drug addiction, group crimes, juvenile delinquency, leaving abroad for self-respect-less, slavery jobs………
    So, systemic change is needed to freshly introduce people to the urge to earn, live, learn, grow, thrive, compete internationally beyond going to the Red Sea to show the might of the Rapist Army. Remember the days after the annihilation of Tamils in the North with the imported mass destruction arsenals, the Rapist Army Chiefs were carrying out conventions to teach the international forces how to carry out genocide within their jurisdictions? But this country has fallen into bankruptcy, beyond the smart Ideas of the Sinhala Buddhist Army General were teaching. The IMF is using their downfall, ignoring the local environmental deterioration for peaceful human life, insisting on rearing the rapist army and taking them to the Red Sea or South China Sea.

  • 0
    1

    Dr. Ameer Ali.
    Another of your essays holding a brief for the JVP/NPP. Fine. I respect your preference.

    Let me pose a hypothetical Question.
    Would the Rajapakses [who have managed to survive even after the Aragalaya with their Proxy Ranil Rajapakse] prefer a SJB [ Sajith ] victory or a JVP/NPP Victory at the forth
    coming elections?
    These elections are between life and death for the Rajapakses. IF THE jvp/npp capture state power match over for them. If Sajith wins they lose their grip on Power enjoyed hitherto, but they reckon they could survive. Who knows they can threaten to pull out skeletons in the cupboard of Sajith.. The minorities Tamils and Muslims are still rather silent on their choice. If by some chance they commit to one side or the other it would be a blessing for the Rajapakses to play the Sinhala Buddhist card.. This may be the reason why the JVP/NPP IS LOUDLY SILENT on referring to Minority grievances. My take is the Minorities Vote WILL DECIDE whether it is death for the Rajapakses or just plain twilight for them.

    • 3
      0

      Dear Plato,
      You have something correct going. However, my thinking is at odds with yours.
      * The minorities are still silent on their choice.
      _ Tamils never had a choice. Just some ‘negative’ choices!
      * the reason why the JVP/NPP IS LOUDLY SILENT
      _ There are hundreds of reasons. You are picking the one that suits you.
      * IF THE jvp/npp capture state power match over for them.
      _ No match is ever over in politics.

  • 3
    0

    Dear whywhy,
    .
    Like all of us
    , you too have said (again!) that you’re worried whether you will be making the correct choice when we are almost definitely called upon to vote later this year for a President.
    .
    This was an intelligent, civilised and frank 100 minute discussion in fluent English that appeared last night. Views from Eran Wickremaratne, Harshana Nanayakkara, Shanikyan Rasamainikkam, and Janaka Ratnayake. I learnt a great deal from it.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    .
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9Lu36rnYNo
    .
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Something new was a clear statement from Harshana that Dr Harini Amarsuriya is the person whom the Party has in mind as its Prime Ministerial candidate. There was agreement among all participants that the key to the well-being of the country would be getting the economy ticking properly. Therefore this will be very interesting for Dr Ameer Ali as well.
    .
    Panini Edirisinhe

    • 0
      0

      There was a reference by Eran Wickremaratne to an article about Rohitha Abeygunawardhana (aka Raththaran) that appeared in Colombo Telegraph. This was it:
      .
      https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/how-did-my-fathers-driver-raththaran-stack-up-billions-in-10-years/
      .
      The problem is that our voters don’t remember such things, although some deracinated expats keep giving exaggerated versions of JVP violence (some of which was indeed there) whilst forgetting about Batalanda.
      .
      One thing that was not mentioned in this discussion was the importance of using the THREE Preference Votes, to neutralise the effect of things that Ranil will start doing by about August 2024.

      Ranil Wickremasinghe must be defeated at all cost.

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