By Tisaranee Gunasekara –
“His (Mahinda Rajapaksa’s) chief interest will be to strike a deal on the corruption investigations against himself and his family.” – Manik de Silva (CNN – 19.8.2015)[i]
The UPFA fought two consecutive elections in an imaginary country and lost them both. In that imaginary country the minority vote was of less value and weight; and the absolute majority of Sinhala-Buddhists yearned to live under the patriotic-yoke of the Rajapaksas.
The defeat of Mahinda Rajapaksa on January 8th should have functioned as a reality check for the UPFA. It had the opposite effect. The political analyses and electoral calculations of the Rajapaksa faction of the UPFA became more surreal with each passing day.
Mr. Rajapaksa’s acolytes claimed he was defeated because Sinhala voters were deceived and mislead by traitors and international conspirators. They maintained that Sinhala voters were weeping hysterically about what they, in their ignorance, did to their war-winning hero. They opined that millions of misled Sinhala voters were yearning to right the wrong they did and vote Mr. Rajapaksa back to power. They ignored the real achievements of the Sirisena-Wickremesinghe administration and insisted Sinhala-Buddhist voters cared nothing for such real life issues as inflation and cost of living. They proclaimed the UPFA would win the parliamentary election with a mammoth majority if it contests under Mr. Rajapaksa’s leadership. Some in-house electoral analysts even argued that a UPFA led by Mr. Rajapaksa will succeed in obtaining 7.2 million votes.
The myth of a Mahinda Wind (Mahinda Sulanga) was thus created and propagated. This ‘Wind’ will wipe out the defeat of January 8th and return the country back to its rightful owners, Rajapaksa loyalists declared.
It was on the basis of these politico-statistical delusions the ‘Let’s Arise with Mahinda’ campaign was born. Starting with the well-organised and well-funded meeting of Nugegoda, this opera of ignorance wended its loud and frenzied way from district to district. Mr. Rajapaksa ran a parallel campaign, touring temples island-wide and being greeted by adoring crowds. All that made exciting news. It also served to hide an important fact: though a majority of Lankans had issues with the Sirisena-Wickremesinghe government they did not want a return to Rajapaksa rule.
The UPFA fought the parliamentary election on the basis of surreal political weather-forecasts and faith-based calculations. That was why Mr. Rajapaksa claimed that come August 18th he will have 117 seats in parliament. That was why his acolytes threatened to surround Temple Trees and make their hero the prime minister.
Mr. Rajapaksa and his acolytes forgot a cardinal fact: free and fair elections are decided by real numbers and not by choreographed theatrics.
So on August 18th, the UPFA collapsed into a crushing defeat with Mahinda, again.
The Anatomy of a Defeat
At the parliamentary election, not only did Mr. Rajapaksa fail to add a single new vote to the UPFA’s January 8th tally. He also failed to retain 19% of the votes he got at the presidential election.
Under Rajapaksa aegis the UPFA’s electoral base eroded by a massive 1.1 million votes, in just seven months, one week and two days.
At the presidential election of January 8th the UPFA got 5.8 million votes. At the August 17th parliamentary election, the UPFA could score only 4.7 million votes.
At the presidential election, the UPFA obtained 47.58% of the national vote; at the parliamentary election its national average went down to 42.38%. That’s a rate of decrease as high as 10.9% in just seven months,
Mr. Rajapaksa failed to add one extra vote to the UPFA not just nationally but also in the district he himself contested.
The UPFA received 556,868 votes in Kurunegala in January; this went down to 474,124 votes in August, a decrease of 82,744 votes in just seven months. This amounts to 7.5% of the UPFA’s national vote-loss and a 7.9% rate of decreae.
So much for Rajapaksa electoral magic!
The responsibility for the UPFA’s humiliating defeat falls on Mahinda Rajapaksa who sacrificed the party for his personal gain, those UPFA leaders who used him to regain their parliamentary seats and the SLFP seniors who succumbed to pressure like nine-pins, displaying a distressing want of intelligence and courage.
Mr. Rajapaksa cannot be blamed for his greed or his ignorance. UPFA leaders like Wimal Weerawansa and Dinesh Gunawardena cannot be blamed for wanting to use the Rajapaksa myth to further their own persona-electoral nests. Given the microscopic scale of their parties, the only way they could gain a parliamentary seat was by piggybacking on the SLFP. And only a SLFP in thrall to Mahinda Rajapaksa would have permitted itself to be used so crassly. Wimal Weerawansa and co. acted in a manner conducive to their own self-interests when they insisted on the UPFA re-accepting Mahinda Rajapaksa as its leader. They cannot be expected to act in any other way.
The real fault was with the SLFP and its senior leaders. They should have had the sense to realise political realities and electoral trends. They should have understood that the time of Mahinda Rajapaksa had come and gone. They should have accepted Mr. Sirisena’s leadership and helped him take the SLFP along a path more attuned to the nature of the Lankan electorate. Doing so was in their own self-interest. But they did the opposite. They were too bereft of sense to understand reality and too devoid of guts to act accordingly.
President Sirisena on several occasions informed the SLFP he could lead the party to victory. He did have a fair chance of making the SLFP the single largest party in the new parliament and therefore the dominant partner in any coalition government. Had Mr. Rajapaksa gone into real retirement post-January 9th, instead of promoting a debilitating factionalism within the SLFP, the party could have retained most of the votes it got at presidential election. Mr. Sirisena’s leadership would have enabled it to gain a segment of the minority vote. Had Mr. Rajapaksa not contested, a larger segment of the anti-Rajapaksa vote in the South would have gone to the JVP.
That was the opportunity the SLFP lost when its leaders turned their back on reality and succumbed to the Rajapaksa myth/whip.
The SLFP seniors allowed themselves to be cowed by Mahinda Rajapaksa and his screaming hordes. The parliamentary election was turned into the second-phase of the presidential election. Both nationally and within the UPFA/SLFP, pro-Mahinda vs. anti-Mahinda division became the main line of demarcation. Within the SLFP, the Rajapaksa faction carried out a well-planned campaign against fellow SLFP candidates seen as insufficiently loyal to Mahinda Rajapaksa, using everything from open appeals to dirty tricks. Faced with the prospect of a Rajapaksa-return, many non-UNPers (some of whom may have voted for the JVP or even abstained) rallied round the UNP.
The end result was a second and a far more comprehensive defeat for Mr. Rajapaksa, the SLFP and the UPFA, just 8 months after the first one.
The UPFA contesting under Mr. Rajapaksa suffered significant vote-losses in 20 out of 22 districts. Even in the Kurunegala district where Mr. Rajapaksa himself contested, the UPFA’s total vote and average vote both decreased. Despite Mr. Rajapaksa’s personal leadership, the UPFA was unable to hobble over the 50% line in the Kurunegala district. The combined vote of the UNP and the JVP was higher than the UPFA vote.
The lesson is obvious. The Lankan electorate, Sinhala, Tamil and Muslim, has rejected Mr. Rajapaksa, again. Mr. Rajapaksa is dead politico-electorally.
Fortunately, that reality seemed to have dawned on Mr. Rajapaksa. That was why he turned up at the Presidential Secretariat to witness the birth of the ‘National Government’ and Ranil Wickremesinghe’s swearing in. He was obviously motivated by the need to save himself and his family from trouble. Whether this is a mere ruse or whether Mr. Rajapaksa has finally escaped from the echo-chamber and gained some sense and sensibility remains to be seen. If Mr. Rajapaksa’s escape is real and sustainable, it will be better for him and for the country.
Trouncing Extremism
Addressing an election rally for his brother in Kuliyapitiya Gotabaya Rajapaksa drew a terrifying picture of the menaces confronting a post-Rajapaksa Sri Lanka. He claimed that the situation in the North had regressed to what it was in the decade of 1980s. He proclaimed that the TNA was trying to achieve what the LTTE could not – Eelam. In a website identified with Wimal Weerawansa the story was carried with a caption which embodied the main electoral theme of the Rajapaksa-led UPFA, ‘People, this is the last bus to a unitary Sri Lanka’[ii].
That racist fear-mongering failed not just nationally but also in the very electorate Gotabaya Rajapaksa made his incendiary – and mendacious – speech. At the presidential election the UPFA won the Kuliyapitiya electorate with 50.61% of the vote. This time the UPFA’s vote went down to 45.19% and it lost Kuliyapitiya to the UNP.
Though exact figures are not available, the absolute majority of postal voters are Sinhalese. As on January 8th, on August 17th, the UPFA was defeated in postal votes. Even in his own Kurunegala district, Mr. Rajapaksa failed to win the postal vote. That is perhaps the clearest demonstration of the failure of the ‘Terrify, Divide and Win’ strategy adopted by the Rajapaksa camp.
The Rajapaksa power-project was premised on Sri Lanka being an exceptional state, forever menaced by internal and external enemies, permanently in need of a ruler enjoying absolute sovereignty unhampered by law and unmitigated by notions of human rights or individual/civic freedoms. This idea was a main theme in the UPFA campaign. From Mahinda Rajapaksa downwards, most UPFA leaders invoked Eelamist, Jihadist, Indian and Western spectres and argued that only Rajapaksa power can keep the country and people safe. To paraphrase Victor Klemperer, the Rajapaksas tried to make the electorate fanatical and win every election through the votes of the resulting fanatics.
They failed.
The Southern electorate not only rejected Mahinda Rajapaksa for a second time. It also resoundingly defeated the Bodu Jana Peramuna, the hasty electoral-avatar of the infamous BBS and Bhikku Galagoda-Atte Gnanasara.
The rejection of extreme solutions was evident in the North as well, where the moderate TNA won a huge and convincing victory. In his election analysis[iii], Ahilan Kadirgarmar points to humiliating defeat suffered by the extremist Tamil National Peoples’ Front (TNPF). The TNPF failed to win a single seat and scored even less votes than Mahinda Rajapaksa’ UPFA in Jaffna!
The economy needs revitalisation, but the cost of doing so must not fall primarily on those at the bottom end of the income totem pole. Austerity is self-defeating economically and opens the door wide to racism and every other form of extremism politically. The ethnic problem requires a just resolution and the living conditions in the North-East need urgent improvement. Democracy must be further strengthened and basic rights of all people assured, both in law and in practice. Judicial independence and the rule of law need further bolstering. Corruption and waste must cease to be normal. Justice must be done in a seeming manner.
And the SLFP must be turned into an electable party again, by removing it from the extremist quagmire and removing extremists from its upper and middle ranks.
In the South and in the North ordinary voters had done their duty. They resisted the deadly appeal of ethno-religious racism, refused to succumb to mindless fear and voted with responsibility and maturity. In the North and in the South they voted for a Lankan, rather than a Sinhala, Tamil or Muslim, future.
Now it is the turn of the politicians.
On Saturday, President Sirisena visited Sampur and handed land deeds to 234 war-displaced families. Accompanied by R Sampanthan, Sinhala, Tamil and Muslim politicians from major parties and Chandrika Bandaranaike, Mr. Sirisena visited families living in temporary shelters in the sixth year of peace and listened to their grievances[iv].
Perhaps ordinary hopes of ordinary people won’t be totally betrayed.
[i] http://edition.cnn.com/2015/08/19/asia/sri-lanka-election-mahinda-rajapaksa/
[ii] https://lankacnews.com/sinhala/main-news/134814/
[iii] http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/sri-lanka-parliamentary-election-results-defeat-of-divisive-politics/article7554530.ece
[iv] http://www.president.gov.lk/news/president-handed-over-land-deeds-to-people-in-sampur/
Emil van der Poorten / August 23, 2015
A typically intelligent analysis from, probably,Sri Lanka’s finest political commentator.
I am certain that it will provoke the usual abuse from the lumpen that, to a large extent, appear to populate this country!
Thank you, Tisaranee, for continuing to do what you do so well: honestly and accurately describe what is happening around us.
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S.Modaya / August 23, 2015
Quite right Emil. The minorities will save the Sinhala Modays from themselves!
Buddhism is being used and abused by the corrupt politicians.
Sirisena is turning out to be a classic clownish Sinhala Modaya, using Mahinda Jarapassa to stay relevant. Ranil should not fall into the SLFP trap of a national government. He should not give a single cabinet post to the SLFP.
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Dinuk / August 23, 2015
Modaya you are quite right. Because Sirisena did not stop Jarapassa from getting nominations and crawling back into the parliament of corrupt morons in 2015, now after the elections rather than getting down to work on the economy and social justice and fighting corruption, the UNP is being forced to keep tune with Sirisena who is struggling to stay relevant!
Sirisena is dancing to set up a BLOODY UNNECESSARY National government with the corrupt clown in the SLFP who won because Sirisena did NOT tell the truth to the Moda supporter of the SLFP about Jarapassa and his cronies!
Ranil should now ignore Sirisena and stop wasting time with him and his nasty friends in the SLFP who want cabinet posts.
And now adding insult to injury Sirisena has come up with an SLFP nationalist of corrupt clowns – Sumathipala, S.B Dissasternaiyake, Dilan the foul mouth womanized, Hisbulla the violator of the Courts – Sirisena has shown his truly cheap colours.
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Analyst / August 23, 2015
A little Bird told me the Majority Singhala miniheks are not using their ” Grey Matter ” effectively.
This deterioration commenced progressively after the Independnce of Srilanka in 1947.
The Politicians took advantage of these innocent people to their OWN Political Gain/Game.
Continuous Bombardment initially of Swabasha Medium followed by Racial and Religious intolerance took
Precedence to other more Urgent Matters like Building a Prosperous future for the Future Young Generation was put on the Back Burner.
The young generation were well versed in Money grabbing ,thieving ,drug dealing etc etc etc.
We have now left with a generation of ZOMBIES who does not use their Bain Positively but Negatively.
The Present generation of Gamaralas cannot understand another Language other than Singhala Politics Of Destruction.
For example the Language “of Modawansa “and ” Mara” clearly explains the Effects of the Dirty Politics took hold of Srilanka for the Last 60 or so years .
The By Products of our conniving Politicians are there to see,
The word ” Singhala Modayas” have been repeated here on CT several times.
I am not here to belittle these people but if this ” generation of destruction ” can put back their energy into good use to build a prosperous nation where all can live peacefully without Fear.
That’s what all the law abiding citizens are craving for.
The Prophecy of the ” Little Bird ” defines above accurately the word “SINGHALA GAMARALA
MODAYAS”
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Analyst / August 23, 2015
Look at the Age difference Mbetween MARA and GONAWANSA. The two are in the same planet of DESTRUCTION AND GREED.
IN 20 Years time the same Mentality of destruction will be passed down to the next generation of Politicians.
They say. Like the father like the Son.
The Election Commissioner seem to be doing a Very Good job SANITIZING the CESS PIT OF SRILANKAN POLITICS.
Yet the Yahapalanaya’s Politics and Promises appears to be FADING WITHIN A WEEK OF THAT PROMISED LAND.
THE CROOKS AND MURDERERS ARE BACK IN PARLIAMENT…. Business as usual.
I am disgusted.
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Ram / August 24, 2015
” The Present generation of Gamaralas…… “
They chose a gamarala to rule over them, while falsely accusing the also-ran of attempting an illegal coup.
A coup DID TAKE PLACE where the man who won also became the leader of the party by default even though he had little support from within it. His first ‘democratic’ act was to replace the elected party hierarchy with one APPOINTED by the him. The first substantial act of governance of the Gamarala administration was the ivy league ‘Bond Scam’ which the gamaralas even in Colombo were hard put to comprehend, or if they did, to accept with a sly wink.
Though we deride Gamarala for his very evident shortcomings, it is that which also makes him the popular choice of the OTHER party.
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Analyst / August 24, 2015
Ram your twisted version of GAMARALA did not explain how The Gamaralas got to town to become
MODAYAS of SL .
As explained before the bond scam had been the wrong checkmate in the puzzle. It had NOT been swept under the carpet ..
The Looting of our land happened for over 60 YEARS MAN by these so called politicians with the help of the Zombies.
The new government need the resources time and the expertise to put behind bars these master con artistes.
The so called Bond scam only happened few months ago.
The out come of progressive Brain washing for over 60 Years have created the present day Zombies , they’re are ready to serve these cunning Political Leaders and are ready to kill , swindle , and cause total destruction in the name of RACE , AND RELIGION , which they did , not because for the Love of their country and the Religion but for their own wellbeing and their families.
Example all to see or read recently the Buddhist temples have been used as for extreme views similar to your Masters greedy views.
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Native Vedda / August 25, 2015
Analyst
Beware Ramuuuuu being the present lead sidekick to OTC, he/she/it will bring the most noted liar, plagiarist, copy paste con artist to defend his/her/ its most stupid lies.
Soon you will see this comment section is being blackened by OTC’s blatant lies, irrational arguments, selective quotes mostly out of context, ……..
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Analyst / August 25, 2015
NV Ramu’s Ramblings not making any sense.
Copy Paste and Links would lead us where ?? Round and Round the Mulberry Bush.??
Thanks Mate.
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Ram / August 25, 2015
“ The word ” Singhala Modayas” have been repeated here ….. “
“ I am not here to belittle these people … “
” Singhala Modayas”’ is the common epithet that had/s been used by the non-Sinhala for as long as I remember to belittle the Sinhala in order to preserve the privileges that they had under the British Raj. How Gamarala came to town is multifactorial, but MAINLY because the populace has had enough of the contemptible behaviour of younger generation of the ruling families and the utter inconvenience caused to them by the visits hither and thither by our ‘rulers’. The Bond Scam happened quite openly BECAUSE the present lot are no different from the previous.
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sama / August 23, 2015
Pawithra could be used as a the toilet pit of Madamulana rather than appointing her to the parliament. I really dont know the kind of foolish women can do to this society. Rosy senananyake who fought every second against injustice gained no votes as we expected. JVP is right to say that election results dont reflect the real thoughts and mind of the people. I really dont think that the kind of freedom and democracy is appropriate to a country such ours with most over 50% of voters being that stupid. How come Gommanpila or Wimala weerawanse gained that sums of votes while real full blood activists much less. This is wired.. this is what MR introduced ot this nation.
We may see it soon, how they go forward in next few years. Rebuilding society would need to be taken the first step if the society should turn to a civilized one. Wimal Buruwanse or any others that drop filthy kind of talks on open stage should be banned bringing all laws and orders.
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Desert Storm / August 23, 2015
I always come back again and again mostly to CT to check if there’s anything chave ome from Tissaranee…Yes she has done and made us stick with the CT to shake our brain to colour the inner un touched part of the brain with deep thought and rational thinking in the subject of the socio-politics and its future of Sri Lanka.
Mahinda is a disastrous selection of Chandrika/Maithree team to present the already bleeding nation with a criminal minded person as the nations top of its leadership to steer the country forward.
By the time the country realised its mistake in accepting this thug as the President (A Darker chapter in the independent Sri Lanka) it was too late. He has plunged the country into a debt trap. Zionist IMF still gave too much money for him play around with as they have more profits the more Rajapakse gone crazy and nuts with other’s money.
Now we have at this juncture, still there is a lot to be feared about a living Mahinda as he might be head-hunted by the Geo-Political interested powerful countries for their gains. Zionist west is a danger lurking all of us in terms of new conflicts and their govt., funded covert operations to fix Sri Lanka into another protracted war with someone or with some community.
The ISIS factor that came during the General Election campaign can be a FALSE FLAG item to hoodwink the majority populations to gear up for another conflict (which is non existent) that might need Mahinda’s leadership to fight it out.
Thank God, the Sinhala population is very much informed and very much thinking. The community have started to think to their own self and take decisions lately. With IT spread across the country the young have been gaining a lot of facts and figures to determine their decisions. Mahinda’s old trick is failing on many grounds.
So, let us see how Maithree is steering the country on the path of good governance along with the backing of Ranil with his mandate given by the people at the elections.
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Hinniappu / August 23, 2015
He was good at the beginning but towards the reconciliation and aftermath handling of the war – he is like a square peg in a round hole. I dont think that many would disagree with many of the collective decisions taken byn him during the last part of the war… in the same time, not sharing the cake with the due was a greater failure him to fall that deep. Also possible even good leaders could go power intoxications in the manner MR faced it… had he owned good advisers around him, he could do his best at least his term offcially ended. All in all, man s behavoiur in the second terms is like that of a mad man. Even if some people were repeatedly attacked by his thugs, him not to have even taken any legal measures proved that the man behaved so indifferfent to prevailing law and order systems.. and the manner so called unbearable levels of dansalas being organised by the costs of the poor tax payers – were not even thinkable to anyone looking at his rule – specailly being out of the country.
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Davidson Panabokke / August 23, 2015
From various reports it transpires that much hasn’t moved afterthe President distributed land deedsin Jaffna on 23 March. Let’s wait and seewhat happens now to Sampur people.
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Amarasiri / August 24, 2015
Ms. Tisaranee Gunasekara –
RE: From Real Election To Realpolitik
“His (Mahinda Rajapaksa’s) chief interest will be to strike a deal on the corruption investigations against himself and his family.” – Manik de Silva (CNN – 19.8.2015)[i]
Thank you for your succinct write up. Can you go one step further?
MaRa MaRa Chatu MaRa
MaRa MaRa Amana MaRa
MaRa MaRa Dhushana MaRa
MaRa MaRa MiNi MaRu MaRa
Sing Jaya Mangala Gathan, in Original Pali on the Defeat of MaRa, MaRa and his Army of Cronies.
Jaya Mangala Gatha-Verses of Auspicious Victory (rare Pali version)-Buddhist Chants.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_OH9kdeLEX4
Based on the Book of Protection (Paritta Sutta) from the Pali canon, the Jaya Mangala Gatha is sung here in a rare recording by the Mahabodhi Society of India in original Pali. The Jaya Mangala Gatha is a chant recommended by the Buddha to destroy negativity and to generate auspiciousness. It proclaims the 8 major victories of the Buddha which are:
1) Victory over Mara ( MaRa)
2) Victory over the demon Alavaka (Wimal)
3) Victory over the wild elephant Nalagiri (Udu Gamanpila)
4) Victory over serial killer Angulimala (Gotabaya)
5) Victory over the evil intentions of Cinca who sought to defame (Pavitra)
6) Victory over the haughty brahmin Saccaka (Vasudeva)
7) Victory over the serpent king Nandopananda (Susil)
8) Victory over the false views of Brahma Baka (Yapa)
Ms. Tisaranee Gunasekara. can you please write the Sri Lankan Common Sense Phamplet. Sri Lanka needs it.
Common Sense (pamphlet)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Sense_(pamphlet)
Common Sense[1] is a pamphlet written by Thomas Paine in 1775–76 that inspired people in the Thirteen Colonies to declare and fight for independence from Great Britain in the summer of 1776. The pamphlet explained the advantages of and the need for immediate independence in clear, simple language. It was published anonymously on January 10, 1776, at the beginning of the American Revolution and became an immediate sensation. It was sold and distributed widely and read aloud at taverns and meeting places.
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Dodo / August 23, 2015
Thisaranee dear, you know I am a firm admirer of your work. But I think that you are soft of Sirisena who is making a royal mess with his
1. Failure to prevent Maihdna Jarapassa from getting nomination from the SLFP to run his racist SLFP campaign
2. President Sirisena is becoming a NATIONAL JOKE with his National Government
3. Sirisena’s National List of SLFP corrupt clowns who were rejected by the people.. Thilanga Sumathipala, the foul mouth SB DIssanayaka and Dilan Perer, Hisbulla and Fizer Mustapher – both corrupt..?
There is no need for a national government full of corrupt SLFP criminal clowns, who will now all want to be Cabinet members. Let the UNP rule with the help of the JVP and TNA and there should only be 10 Cabinet members.
SIrisena has made a royal mess of the SLFP rather than cleaning out that corrupt party of Mahinda Jarapassa and his cronies. He should have refused MR and his cronies nominations..
Fianlly, Arjuna Mahendran the corrupt insider trader at the Central Bank must be investigated – so too his predecessor Nivard Cabraal and their assets ceased and use to pay off the national debte once they are proved guilty – which they are.
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Mohamed / August 25, 2015
I fully agree that 10 committed MP’s are adequate to govern the country and uplift the living standard of the poor voters. The UNP is fortunateto have more than adequate capable committed and enterprising MP’s for the task. Too many cook will only spoil the soup. Hope UNP will not fall in to this trap.
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EDWIN RODRIGO / August 23, 2015
This man should have been given the Libyan tratment the day after Presidential elections. Now we find that he has been an organizing a Fascist movement to start street riots if he/family is arrested. It is better to take one guilty life than to risk lives of hundreds of innocents.
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Rohan / August 23, 2015
Interesting… How quickly the people of Sri Lanka moved on from the war heroes!! Rajapaksas are gone and Sarath Fonseka is gone. Not just TNPF and former LTTEers, Bodhu Bala Sena (BJP!) has also been ejected by people. They are yawning for peace and demand moderate middle path.
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Afzal / August 23, 2015
Thank you for very detailed and readable analysis.
Rajapakse name has been mentioned staggering 55 time !
I wish there will be a time in the future where we don’t have talk about this man so much rather talk about what the government has done right, what the government has done not so right and what can be better.
In other words we will be able to talk about Sri Lanka. Not one man in his personal ambitions.
Rajapakse is in for for further humiliation. Circle of life has to be completed.
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Maramandai / August 23, 2015
TG – Thank you for your excellent article. In early 90s I was tortured, imprisoned and made to witness horrific crimes in front of my eyes as along with many of our fellow citizens of SL. All because of racism from both sides. Just because I was born to be a tamil ( different race!!) I went through the hardship. I was made to become a refugee in a foreign country where I was given a new life. Thank God..
I was reluctant to say I am a Sri Lankan. But Jan 08 changed my mind set. Once again I can proudly say I am Sri Lankan. I can boldly say this to my friends.
MS is doing his best to restore confidence of many thousands like me to be part of our beautiful country. No one can call Sinhala people as Modayas any more. They are now wise and shown their political maturity to select a great leader. I hope RW with humility and political shrewdness will rule the country in the right direction free of corruption and racism. Lets sincerely hope that TNA will join forces with MS/RW to bring a lasting solution to this beautiful country and for its citizens in the N&E of the country.
In the mean time we should punish those who have become billionaires by stealing from the poor citizens of Sri Lanka. Have you seen the pictures of Sampur (similar stories in many parts of the country). Once filled with paddy fields and self sufficient people now living in field similar to desert. That is the picture you will see in many places because of mismanagement and arrogance. Lets bring smile to those poor people. May God bless those in the throne!!!
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Saummiya / August 23, 2015
Lop sided. She has missed an important point… That the anti UNP vote…. UPFA + JVP is larger in this election. The JVP vote in the Presidential election went to MY3. It is also a very strange phenomenon that this election had so many spoilt votes . The difference of 1 mil between presidential and general elections for the UPFA is questionable… How come ? On the other hand UNP + ITAK + JVP plus other small parties votes to gether adds to almost the same in both elections.
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Wickramasiri / August 24, 2015
Saummiya, You have raised a good point. It is doubtful that people stayed away from voting since this election was as important as the Presidential election. My view is that the ghost votes accumulated by the SLFP/PA could not be deployed this time around for obvious reasons!
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Ellakollage Appachchi / August 25, 2015
Saummiya
You have almost answered your own question. UNP+ TNA+JVP is same in both elections. ( Genuine votes)
UPFA is 1.1 million short in General Election. The reason is illegal voting or ” Hora Chanda” during presidential elections which they could not rig this time because they were not in power
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somawansa / August 23, 2015
Good Analysis the show what she need…..!
But for me all of them RW (Batalanada, Bond scam) and Mara (corruption and rest bla bla) and CBK (Victor’s Bandit queen) are same.
To take scorecards of each of them please read following info, so you can understand we cannot compare Presidential election results and General election.
Better to compare General Election with Previous general election.
Only exception is 2015 all anti-MaRa forces together got 6.2million which is almost closer to 2015 presidential election.
If we consider respective general elections Mara hamudawa, 2010 they were 4.8 and 2015 it is 4.7, so readers have to careful about what resistence will bring to Yahapalanaya other than MY3 already doing just after election with National list selection, for me it is similar to CB Bonds scam.
SLFP++
P-Election G-Election Gain/Loose
1999/2000 4,312,157 3,900,901 411,256
2001 3,330,815 981,342
2005/2004 4,887,152 4,223,970 663,182
2010/2010 6,015,934 4,846,388 1,169,546
2015/2015 5,768,090 4,732,669 1,035,421
UNP++
P-Election G-Election Gain/Loose
1999/2000 3,602,748 3,477,770 124,978
2001 4,086,026 483,278
2005/2004 4,706,366 3,504,200 1,202,166
2010/2010 4,173,185 2,357,057 1,816,128
2015/2015 6,217,162 5,098,927(UNP) 1,118,235
543,944(JVP)
515,963(TNA)
44,193(SLMC)
6,203,027 14,135
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somawansa / August 23, 2015
Good Analysis the show what she need…..!
But for me all of them RW (Batalanada, Bond scam) and Mara (corruption and rest bla bla) and CBK (Victor’s Bandit queen) are same.
To take scorecards of each of them please read following info, so you can understand we cannot compare Presidential election results and General election.
Better to compare General Election with Previous general election.
Only exception is 2015 all anti-MaRa forces together got 6.2million which is almost closer to 2015 presidential election.
If we consider respective general elections Mara hamudawa, 2010 they were 4.8 and 2015 it is 4.7, so readers have to careful about what resistence will bring to Yahapalanaya other than MY3 already doing just after election with National list selection, for me it is similar to CB Bonds scam.
SLFP++
P-Election G-Election Gain/Loose
1999/2000 4,312,157 3,900,901 411,256
2001 3,330,815 981,342
2005/2004 4,887,152 4,223,970 663,182
2010/2010 6,015,934 4,846,388 1,169,546
2015/2015 5,768,090 4,732,669 1,035,421
UNP++
P-Election G-Election Gain/Loose
1999/2000 3,602,748 3,477,770 124,978
2001 4,086,026 483,278
2005/2004 4,706,366 3,504,200 1,202,166
2010/2010 4,173,185 2,357,057 1,816,128
2015/2015 6,217,162 5,098,927(UNP) 1,118,235
543,944(JVP)
515,963(TNA)
44,193(SLMC)
6,203,027 14,135
Further with as a elected MP, Mara may gain some immunity when he go out of Sri Lanka and some privileges he is getting within island.
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Tony Candappa / August 23, 2015
Thank You Tisaranee.
Lovely commentry. I personally hope that Ranil and Maithri will work together for the benefit of Sri Lanka as a whole.
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K.A Sumanasekera / August 23, 2015
Did Mahinda Rajapaksa lose the deposit too…
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punchinilame / August 23, 2015
No, but he will never ever give his Declaration of Assets form as the FCID will have
a peep into it, before investigations. The EC will be summoned in this regard.
I wonder if Namal too will submit this, within the unusal 3 month time interval given
for this ad hoc by the EC.
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Native Vedda / August 23, 2015
KASmaalam K.A Sumanasekera
“Did Mahinda Rajapaksa lose the deposit too…”
His amude is missing.
Can you tell the emperor that he has been appearing in public without his new clothe?
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K.A Sumanasekera / August 24, 2015
Dear Native,
I thought Amude rules.
Although your mate Batalanada Ranil was in his DB suit.
And looked the odd one out,when even Bloemendhal Galleon was in our Upasaka Attire.
Not sure whether he had a Amude though..
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kodithuwaku / August 24, 2015
HAS
Why worry about loosing his Deposit??
He s going to loose his fortune he amassed during his misrule and end up at Hague soon.
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Sylvia Haik / August 25, 2015
I think the deposit should be the least of his worries. Your hero MR still has to explain how he and his relatives amassed the fortune they have accumulated to buy mansions in USA and Sri Lanka.
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Chandra / August 23, 2015
Despite the display of this acutely frustrated and vindictive so called commentator who uses terms like ‘humiliating defeat’ or ‘crushing defeat’ to describe the shortfalls in electoral successes of former President Mahinda Rajapakse it is amply evident that he is the most popular political personality in the country.
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Ansar / August 23, 2015
Chandra,
“MARA the most popular political personality in the country”.
Yes, he is the most personality among the Racist Voters who want to suppress the minorities under their boots. Luckily we have a majority of sane Buddhist voters who consider otherwise. If not this country would be plunged into total destruction by your most popular political personality.
Let me tell some of the deeds of your most popular personality, after the war.
1. Killed Lasantha in broad day light in HSZ.
2. Kidnapped Ekneheliyagoa, presumed killed by the goons of MARA/GORA.
3. Killed Bharatha Lakshamn like in Chicago.
4. killed innocent people in Rathupaswela, demanding drinking water.
5. Killed inmates of Welikada.
6. Brutally killed Wasim Thajudeen, a family murder. Son/Mother/Father/Uncle.
7. Created death and destruction in A & B.
8. Incarcerated our valiant General Sarath Fonseka, who won the war for all of us.
9. Killed FTZ protester demanding security for their EPF fund.
10. Created law of the jungle, by taking men on white vans and killing them eventually.
Is above list enough for you, of your popular politician.
DO YOU REALLY EAT RICE OR PUNAK ? Eat rice for a change will you, so that your brain will start functioning.
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Native Vedda / August 24, 2015
Ansar
Lasantha was murdered on January 8, 2009 whereas the war ended much later in May the same year.
For Chandra MR “is the most popular political personality in the country”.
Didn’t MR order the killing of VP after his surrender? Didn’t he beat up the Tamils and kill a lot? Didn’t he recover cash and gold from Vanni much, much more than what he paid VP in 2005?
Do you think these acts are insufficient to make him a popular political personality among racist Sinhala/Buddhists?
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K.A Sumanasekera / August 23, 2015
How low can Ranil go just to get the PM job…
He even set a precedent at his inauguration by taking a second Oath, promising not to implement his own undertakings to the TNA.
And to nullify his own agreement with late Mr Pirahaparan which gave the latter full control of 1/3 of the Island nation.
And Ranil became the PM because of 5 years of hard work of the TNA and its Western allies to brain wash the Lnakan inhabitants with false propaganda against Rajapaksa.
Now Ranil has even agreed to give 18 Ministerial and another 18 Deputy jobs to the SLFP.
And Ms T tries to tell her loyal followers that all is hunky dory and it is full blown Yahapalanaya.
Poor Keselwatta Kid is not sure whether he will even get a Ministerial Job let alone a cabinet post.
And the talk of the Town is the Kid is planning to take his Sinhala Buddhist Faction over to the Opposition.
Interesting… My word it is…
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Native Vedda / August 23, 2015
KASmaalam K.A Sumanasekera
“How low can Ranil go just to get the PM job… “
How low did MR stoop to get appointed as the SLFP prime minister over Lakshman Kadirgamar? Poor Laxman committed suicide to make way for MR.
How low did MR stoop to get elected as the president in 2005? He had to find unaccounted unmarked cash, loads of them and send it in bags to Mullaithive through middlemen to VP as as donation to the Sun God.
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patriot / August 23, 2015
Ansar
You missed to add one more name to the list. Velupillai Pirabhakaran
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Ansar / August 23, 2015
I think you missed the vital point.
I Clearly said… AFTER THE WAR.
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Yoga / August 23, 2015
Hello Tisaranee Gunasekara –This article of yours is a well thought out political analysis. Congratulations. You are very right the Sirisena and Ranil should get out of their boxes and crate a peaceful Srilanka. Sinhalese ,Tamil and Muslims should be able to live without fear and with dignity. Hope they take note of what you had written in the article, Quote:-“The ethnic problem requires a just resolution and the living conditions in the North-East need urgent improvement. Democracy must be further strengthened and basic rights of all people assured, both in law and in practice. Judicial independence and the rule of law need further bolstering. Corruption and waste must cease to be normal. Justice must be done in a seeming manner”. President and PM should take courage and without cowing to the extremist should resolve the infesting crisis of Tamil ethnic question ASSP. All should understand THE LTTE was created by Sinhala politicians to be in Power. UNP and SELF were outbidding each other using Tamil bashing tactics to grab power of governance, losing sight of the fact the country was economically bleeding, Emigration causing ‘Brain Drain’ unwanted war and killings of its own citizens. Hope the new government use their cognitive power and carry out ‘good governance’ and remove immunity and punish the criminals who had ruined the country during the last decade. The journalist should have the freedom and right; If Sirisena or Ranil does some mistakes they should be exposed and criticized without fear. Independent Judiciary should be able to punish them for any crime committed by them. Police to maintain Law and Order. It is also necessary to wean out corrupt police, administers, Schoolteachers and all politicians. Armed forces should be reduced to suit the internal need there is no threat from any of our neighbours. The Armed forces should not be the major employment base to the Sinhala Youths. All 9 provinces should have equal number of posting of these men, not like the present lob-sided crowd in the Northeast only. All citizens are waiting for Mr clean MS & RW to do their jobs very well. Tisaranee Gunasekara please carry on with your good journalism.
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Estate Labourer / August 23, 2015
This very sensible article is a ‘Must’ reading for so many other, less mature, political analysts. I do not wish to embarrass them by naming them.
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Jim softy / August 23, 2015
Even the west does not have the society that TG and her cheer-leaders are talking about.
It looks propaganda had an effect.
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Analyst / August 23, 2015
Absolutely Jimmysoft,
The truth hurts. The long gone days of everyone worshipped when a yellow robed person enter a bus or any other places they were given right Royal treatment. They were the messiah’s of Lord Buddha who conveyed and preached his message.
Present day yellow robed monks are free to do anything and everything but the MODAYAS never protested against these behaviours of these monks.
Why ?? Because they have been brain washed by these Monks not to QUESTION BUT TO OBEY THE religious values.
IF THE LAY PERSON DID NOT OBEY THEY WILL BE PUNISHED BY Mighty LORD BUDDHA NOT ONLY IN THIS BIRTH BUT THE FUTURE GENERATIONS TOO,
THIS HAD BEEN A THREAT by these MONKS. Poor MODAYAS have no escape either from the Politicians or these so called religious messengers as we call them HAMUDHRUWE.
The country went to DOGS because of all these DISHONEST PEOPLE.
In my temple of worship If my mind and soul is clean and not committed murder ,/ steal , I need not bow down to anyone.
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Ponkoh Sivakumaran / August 23, 2015
A fine analysis as always Tisaranee. Let us hope that communal politics which was the bane of the country has been laid to rest for good. But, Rajapakse and his ilk can thrive only if they are to revive it. He does still have a vote bank which will keep the issue boiling if the Ranil-Maithree faction does not ensure that the corruption that he and his coterie including Weerawansa were responsible for is fully exposed. The money that are the proceeds of their crimes should be recovered. The murders attributed to them must be fully investigated. This must be done soon so that the evil is uprooted from the political system as quickly as possible. Ranil must end the Mahendran episode which is a sore. He must make a new beginning. Then there is Maithri and his brother. Ranil must show that there is in fact a new beginning. Returning the lands in Sampur is indeed such a sign of a new dawn. The army of occupation must be withdrawn from the NorthEast. The civilian authorities must alone be responsible for law and order. The rule of law must be restored which must mean that bad judges are got rid of and corrupt police and politicians are rooted out.
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Truth / August 23, 2015
You are correct in your analysis that the focus of Mahinda will be to by hook or by crook shelve the investigations against him & his family. During the election he was openly taunting the government for their failure to find his billions of Dollars safely hidden in China and other havens of corrupt politicians & public officials. However, one slip is enough to catch him and all his accomplices.
President Maithri who is committed to fighting the drug menace must make our drug control mechanism as efficient as Singapore, by getting the expertise of Singapore to control this menace. Our laws must provide for prosecuting politicians who interfere with the work of drug control authorities.
We should seek the opinion of the Attorney General on prosecuting politicians who have used their political power to save drug lords and release consignments of drugs. Quick action is required to punish all those politicians who ran riot during their rein from 2005 to January 2015.
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K.A Sumanasekera / August 24, 2015
Is Galleon Ravi going to miss the cut?.
Bodhi Sira wants Eran , which is understandable?
Will Mahendran get a new gig as Batalanada Ranil’s special adviser on Finance ?.
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Native Vedda / August 24, 2015
KASmaalam K.A Sumanasekera
Have you noticed that Gota’s boys received only 2500 votes in total through out North East?
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ramona therese fernando / August 24, 2015
Tisaranee Gunasekara,
Well,…..guess it’s : “Welcome to the dawn of pluralistic Sri Lanka.”
Guess it’s elite SB’s fault for taking the high-road on all things racial.
Sad that they had to take the high-road on all things racial and invoke such unpatriotic acts from their own fellow-SB’s.
From FFP for certain candidates, to PR for others; from FFP in certain districts to PR in other districts ; from FFP in one party to PR in other parties; from gerrymandering to Tony Blair entering our hallowed grounds with a voting algorithm that would have ensured UNP victory and favored eventual separatism. Our country been yet again ravaged!
Elite urban pluralistic voters were given higher voter parity. Hinterland votes were scorned and put aside. “Let’s teach the the awful Godayas who spout racial rhetoric, how to work for us and make us rich,” is the motto of the Urban-pluralistic-elite, courtesy UNP.
Sigh…..in spite of all, let’s hope a new dawn will emerge upon the Motherland.
Let’s hope Ranil will get money from the West to develop the country away from the precarious Capitalistic technique, and into a new post-modern environmentally friendly society, courtesy SB’s with a pure new heart, and who have the greatest aptitude to understand everything Post-Modern.
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backlash / August 24, 2015
Tisaranee – As always, succinct and lucid. Many thanks.
The Sinhala demagogues – MR, Dinesh G, Weerawansa and their lecherous salivating hordes cannot be expected to remain silent. There will be no let on their part to conspire and undermine the Ranil-Sirisena combine. After all, politics is the only path for economic redemption by this trio and their hangers on. The huge funds they have stolen from State resources will soon come to near nought. Their political survival depends to the degree they can fool the gullible Buddhist Sinhala electorate that the Sinhala Nation is in constant danger from the usual suspects – the West, Tamilnadu, India and the Tamil diaspora. To this array of falsehoods, now they may add Global Islam, ISIS and the lot. They will continue to push the refrain it is only Mahinda R and his chosen acolytes who can save ” our jathiya and aagama” by a Christian-dominated world.
The news from Geneve/UN Report, due shortly, can be a heart-breaker to them. The Americans and the international community may also push for a case on gun-running, under official guise, targeting the low IQ but avaricious Gothabaya. There is also a possibility of the UN charging the Rajapakse regime for deliberately flouting UN Sanctions on Iran (purchase of Oil-Gas) Rajapakses can buy time for themselves only if they remain politically strong. Can they?
Soon the lively and active local Sinhala media fill find holes to establish MR’s and his family’s many vulnerabilities. As Sarath Fonseka found to his recent dismay by a crude rejection by the Buddhist Sinhala Electorate, the Rajapakse Achilles heels will also soon show.
If the new dispensation helps the improvement of the economy, cause a gradual dent in the CoL factor, create new jobs, restore good governance and enhance the air of freedom now felt in all corners of the island, a Rajapakse return – by hook or by crook in their nature – will be out of the question.
Backlash
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vishvajith / August 24, 2015
TG, you mighty warrior, you took on the Rajapaksa’s with your pen. When white vans were ruling the roost, people cowed, their women raped, murdered, vanished; you took them on.
You braver than the brave, we salute you.
V.
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Rohan Silva / August 25, 2015
One thing is for sure, ie. 40 pct of the population(voting)are still illiterate. Otherwise how come an uneducated fraud like Weerawanse has been elected as member of parliament. Apart from this rapists, drug dealers, ethanol importers, swindlers, abductors and murderers have been elected as legislators. Is 40pct of the population still from the Veddah community ? To add to misery, some of them who lost at the elections have got it through the back door ( nominations list).What a sad state of affairs in the Banana Republic.
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Douglas / August 25, 2015
The picture published with the article tells a million of words. The President has not allowed his hands to be clasped with Mr. Mahinda’s hands; instead he has taken both of Mr. Mahinda’s hands on to his hands. Do you remember how Mr. Sirisena on becoming the President refused to give his hands to Mr. Mahinda. Why? It was well known that this believer of “CHARMS” would have had some sort of “hoodoo” to inflict on Mr.Sirisena. After January 8th defeat, Mr. Mahinda has distanced from those “Royal Astrologers” and “Charmers” and posed to be little cleared of such mentality. Look at the smile on the face of the President Mr. Sirisena. It is to tell Mr. Mahinda; “So you know now who is in control”. Yet, I still see that “CRAFTY” smile on Mr. Mahinda. Why? He has quite a “Huge Luggage” on his back to clear. Isn’t he expecting some assistance from the President? Quite a lot.
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Sylvia Haik / August 25, 2015
Thank you Tisaranee for a brilliant analysis. The Sri Lankan electorate is much more astute than people give it credit for. One of the notable victims of the well-organised and well-funded Nugegoda meeting hype was Prof. Rajiva Wijesinha, because immediately after that rally he switched allegiance to Mahinda Rajapakse for no other valid reason I can see.
When Adolf Hitler with his sidekicks Goebbels and Himmler managed to convince a whole country to adopt racism as a winning path, Mahinda Rajapakse failed miserably with his own sidekicks Gotabhaya and Weerawansa.
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