24 September, 2019

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Gota, UNP-Candidate & Post Presidential-Election Foreign Policy

By Kumar David

Prof. Kumar David

Gota, UNP-candidate and post presidential-election foreign policy: Foreign connections key to Lanka’s future

‘Economic foreign policy’ (EFP), by which I mean how the next president and government design foreign investment, trade and external collaboration and respond to global economic circumstances will be key factors in determining growth, employment, inflation and welfare after the current election cycle. In my piece on 17 March I asserted that the 2019-20 Budget was of no importance as a policy tool and that its importance would lie in whether it succeeds as a populist instrument in winning votes for the UNP. One can generalise and say that with presidential elections due in November-December, a new parliament to follow in about seven months, and several provincial elections to take place who knows when, no economic policy initiatives whatsoever, initiated now will yield results before this cycle has run its course. Policies will not have a ghost of chance of yielding results, favourable or deleterious before a new or a re-elected administration stamps its seal. In saying this I have in mind economics in general, that is both domestic policy and EFP. In the globally networked economic system of today Sri Lanka is in a sense a slave-sate, not only in that global economics will determine much of what happens to us but also in that we need to design our EFP with a shrewd eye on what’s going on ‘out there’.

One cannot and should not attempt to deal with this scenario comprehensively this early in the cycle and in any case it is futile to say much about EFP before knowing which unsavoury character will be president and which of Ali Baba’s retinue will be seated in Kotte next year. Therefore as regards EFP I will say little but foreign policy in the broader sense of which global thugs diminutive Lanka will be compelled to bum is of concern. Let me say straight away that it is my firm view that no great or regional power (US, China, India, EU or Russia) is going to lose one wink of sleep about whether Gota or a UNP-nominee wins the presidency. We in Lanka have a greatly exaggerated view of our own importance, but frankly, all but India care not a fart whether it’s this one or the other. China is not much bothered about whether it’s a Rajapaksa or not, and the US similarly unconcerned about what happens in this diminutive island. Much bigger winds (desperate need for investment, loans so that we do not drown in debt, export markets), than the name of president or party, will decide the game for Sri Lanka. What difference did it make to China, eventually, that Mahinda was turfed-out? None. Only India, because of proximity, may find it useful to keep a tab on this troublesome speck in its littoral waters. 

To claim that the big boys care bugger-all about what goes on here is by no means the same as declaring that the converse is true. True, no great or regional power will interfere with our elections as it makes no difference to them – and China burnt its fingers badly in 2015 – but the relations that Lanka maintains with each of them during the 2020-25 period is of importance for us. In the last four years it was Chinese largesse and IMF mollycoddling that kept this country’s external finances afloat; it is foreign direct investment, manufacturing and the export-oriented sector that have been disappointing. Investment has focussed on hotels and tourism, luxury apartments and the Megapolis; even the Colombo and environs light-rail is not yet under construction.   

Trump’s second term?

I need to summarise in a paragraph what I said in my column last week. Matters of state and politics have fluctuated a great deal in the last several months in the US. Trump has gained considerably on the propaganda side after the Muller Report cleared him of collusion with Russia in the run up to the 2016 presidential elections and subsequently in office. The mainstream liberal media and the Democrats have suffered a humiliating setback made worse by their congenital inability to understand class politics. Trump plays to the insecurity of the white working class and bleak prospects facing poor whites and uses the outrage generated by huge and rising wealth and income inequality. Trump is a charlatan, but a successful one; his standing with his Base (a quarter to a third of the population) is secure because he capitalises on this anger by railing against the Washington “swamp” and the nose in the air “them”. 

In reaction to these trends a new Socialist-Liberal movement known as the Green New Deal is gaining ground among young Americans and within the Democratic Party. I predict a fundamental shift in US politics within say five years but I will not go so far now as to predict a Trump defeat in 2020. Fifty-fifty is the best one can intelligently conjecture so early in the day. I expect howls of “Traitor” from the morally righteous left, but for heaven’s sake dear reader have you not seen that ofttimes it is opportunistic rascals who win? Feedback I get makes we wonder whether some are so naïve as to confuse their wishes with hard reality! Hitler actually won in Germany in 1933 you know!

The US economy, though slowing in Q4-2018 and Q1-2019, is keeping up record levels of employment, reasonable growth and low inflation, enabling Trump to crow: “This has been an incredible week for America. The economy is roaring, the ISIS caliphate is defeated 100 percent, and after three years of lies, smears and slander the Russia hoax is finally dead. The collusion delusion is over”. But serious economic forecasters see a bleak future trumping Trump by the end of the year. Companies say the country is at the bounds of non-inflationary growth, labour shortages are beginning to bite, profit margins are falling and consumer demand is slackening. If monetary policy is not tightened continued growth will become inflationary. Credit is not growing fast enough to self-sustain growth; this means the economy will remain dependent on asset price inflation or fall into recession. The Fed is hostage to the stock market and to Trump. Market selloff and presidential berating forced it to stop interest rate hikes and end “quantitative tightening”. A downturn in the in next 12 to 18 months is what sober economists see as Trump’s Achilles’ heel.

Trump and Sri Lanka

Several months ago I speculated in this column that a stark danger to a Gota candidacy was the possibility that the US may defer his attempt to surrender citizenship. It is an obvious gambit to spoke his presidential wheel and I am surprised that my hunch attracted no comment in the media at the time. Now in a lightning move, murdered (allegedly by personnel in Gota’s line of military command) editor Lasath Wickrematunge’s daughter, and the International Truth and Justice Project on behalf of Tamil torture survivor Roy Samathanam have filed civil cases in the US and physically served summons on Gota while he was at Trader Joes (a shop) in Pasadena, California. Will the courts let him abandon US citizenship while legal action is pending? Drug peddlers are not allowed to cut and run, but I am not knowledgeable of the procedural differences between civil and criminal cases; let us wait and see. In the remainder of this piece I will leave aside renunciation of US citizenship and focus on other political concerns.

What is of interest in Sri Lanka is that if Trump wins a second term in November 2020 it will be less than a year after we elect a new president and within months of a general election. How may it relate to our domestic concerns? What will count for as much as economics or policy, is personal dynamics. Trump is notoriously narcissistic and bonds with likeminded vagrants. He has formed special relationships with Brazil’s new alt-right president Jair Bolsanaro described as the ‘Trump of the Tropics, Israel’s corrupt Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu, Philippine go-for-the-kill Durante, erstwhile rocket-boy Kim Un-John and of course there is that enigmatic relationship with Putin. So don’t discount the importance of this personality quirk of Donald Trump.

If Trump and Gota both win I see a grovelling Gota worming his way into Trump’s list of buddies. There are squadrons of avid Gota-doting Sinhalese in the US; they have connections to promote their man. The 2016 US presidential elections saw a Sinhala-Tamil divide; Tamils smashed thousands of coconuts haro-haraing the gods to smile on Hilary Clinton, while the Sinhalese despised the woman for alleged pro-Tamil diplomatic bias. This is still simmering and will come into the open if Gota wins. In the Tamil mind Gota is indelibly scarred by war and atrocities against civilians. But he is a war hero of near Mahinda status in the Sinhalese mind. If he is willing to cringe, I have little doubt that Trump’s advisors will persuade their President to grant Gota an audience. US foreign policy will switch as mercurially as it did in the cases of Pakistan, Syria and Afghanistan, if Trumpian idiosyncrasy wills it.

How will Trump-Lanka relations evolve if Ranil, Sajith or Karu turn out to be president? It will be a business-as-usual relationship; but normal business in the twenty-first century for Lank is a matter of balancing between India, China, the EU and America, in about that order of importance. Of the three UNP runners, in relation to policy it would not be unfair to say that Sajith is the least skilled in projecting a Sri Lanka image and the least experienced buttering up foreign leaders and prospective investors. I am not contesting that he is a popular candidate among young people and Sinhala-Buddhist voters. 

The legal actions against Gota in the US, even if his presidential bid is successful, will create knock-on complications. Renunciation of dual nationality, even if successful is a separate matter from the civil cases. The latter will drag on for months or years and we could have the spectacle of a president embroiled in endless American law suits. The UNP will exploit this in the election campaigns and against a putative President Gotabaya afterwards.

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Latest comments

  • 22
    6

    Day Dream of Gatabaya.
    Sinhalese are blind and deaf but other minorities never support this murderer.

    Sinhalese forget everything soon but Other minorities never do it.

    This man must be brought to justice and incarcerated for life.

    • 7
      0

      Dr. KD: Gota is a distraction from the big picture of on-going crisis and economic war fare by Washington Consensus and Euro allies against Lanka to crash the economy and asset strip as in Haiti..
      There are 15 African countries in the IMF-Eurobond debt trap. The weaonization of finance and economics by Washington and its Euro allies as Asia rises with China and growth moves East is on-going with the trade wars
      Some of the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries that have issued Eurobonds are Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa, Angola, Gabon and Mozambique. Others are Ethiopia, Senegal, Tanzania, Namibia, DR Congo and the Seychelles.

      All these countries should get together tell EU and IMF an Washington Big banks to get lost- go for DEBT CANCELLATION. NOT debt restructuring and end the colonial fake development numbers game they are trapped in.

      • 0
        0

        KD: EFP is increasingly about Global-Local Networks of Corruption and weaponization of Economics, the dismal science, as well as, Environmental Research and Development is on-going, to deb trap the global South, as the Euro-American dream of world hegemony turns into a nightmare of inequality and natural disaster.
        A new development paradigm is needed – not this foreign fake aid, debt trap, development that benefits only Washington-Euro bond Consensus, under the guise of ‘blue-green’ development that includes “greenwashing” of US-EU (P3 US, UK France) , global military businesses with Fake Environmentalism like the Convention of Trade in Endangered Species of Fauna and Flora (CITES) shows that GoSL foreign Ministry which is owned and operated by Trumpland is hosting next month in Colombo.
        As the Euro-American empire crashes, the global South is being put in the debt trap and the IMF-EU Bail Out Business to squeeze it dry. Blaming China is part of their propaganda war of scapegoating others..

    • 3
      2

      Saman
      “Sinhalese forget everything soon but Other minorities never do it.”
      ———–
      Demalu used to tell this but it is no longer true. After the war ended, Demalu seems to be having short memory. They have forgotten how they suffered under megalomaniac Prabhakaran and that Rajapakses played a crucial role in sending Prabhakaran to hell; wiping out LTTE; rescuing nearly 300,000 Demala civilians who were kept as a human shield; clearing land mines; rehabilitating LTTE cadres; improving infrastructure facilities like roads, electricity and water supply; giving peace of mind to Demala mothers who were worried that their children will be grabbed by LTTE to be recruited as child soldiers etc. etc.

      • 3
        0

        I am ashamed to be sinhalaya each time I read yours BP Rodiya Mahindapala.
        .
        You should let alone today learn how to address your fellow human beings. Tamils, muslim and burghers and state tamils are all srilankens. May well be that you the kind of BPs forget that due to pathological reasons. But that is no means possible, when looking at the contents of your racial posts. Just let us know, why you hate entire tamils in the country ? I can imagine if you hate only LTTErs, but elaborate us please, why you the kind of ultra senior lanken, not even few more years to go with Walakajja, stay that hateful ?. May be you were molested by Tamils during your schooling ? If that is the case, you can still go to a therapy and enjoy rest of your life peacefully. Get well soon !

  • 3
    1

    Again, Trump’s chances of winning re-election is slim, to none, unless of course Russia steps in again and interferes, with conspiracy theories, and attacks against his opponent. Trump lost BIG TIME in the last congressional elections and lost the HOUSE in a devastating way. A clear sign the country is sick of him, and want him controlled and checked, which the Democrats are doing. He has lost a lot of supporters in States he won the last time, no surprise, with his stupid shutdowns.
    He has always had low approval ratings, never going above the 50 percent mark, another sign he is not as popular as he wants to be.

    “President Donald Trump’s 39 percent job approval rating average during the first two years of his term is the lowest of any president since World War II, according to a poll report released Wednesday.

    The president’s average approval rating in his second year in office, from January 20, 2018, to January 19, 2019, was 40.4 percent, higher than his first year average of 38.4 percent, according to Gallup.

    “Trump’s year-two approval average is the lowest for second-year presidents elected to office since World War II,” the poll report stated. “Trump’s year-one average was also the lowest for a first-year elected president.” Newsweek

    Do the maths, at this rate he can never win.

    As for that victory over the Democrats over the Mueller report – we only have the four pages that his puppet Attorney General has written, out of over 400 pages. Until the country has seen the report in it’s entirety, we should reserve judgement exactly what has been concluded. Robert Mueller could NOT exonerate him from Obstruction of Justice, which casts doubt on exactly what Trump actions were. A Barr redacted report is to be released soon, but it will not suffice. Trump is also being investigated in the New York, and DC courts, for various other crimes, questioning his business practices, and family corruption at his foundation.

  • 1
    0

    I see some Foreign effects on Gota which are carrot and stick approach. Gota is the rabbit

  • 3
    0

    Kumar: How do you greenwash a CIA human rendition black site called Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean? You turn it into a marine reserve and build oil processing plants for war ships in a neighbouring isle called Lanka!
    Trumpland is sending 150 Peace Co. volunteers, a massive contingent with tax free, diplomatic impunity in October 2019 to Sri Lanka. Why?
    Pick the answer: 1.To teach English, 2. to fix elections, 3. to weaponize social media, 4. FB and internet fund and game, 5. Cyber-war and surviellance in IO?

    Also, Qatar is suing big banks for currency manipulation in an economic war against it. US proxy Saudi and Luxumbourg Banks too, as Qatar was penalized for being too close to Iran by Trumpland.
    Tokyo’s Nomura ratings that bought Arthur Anderson after the 2008 crash, started the crash of LKR last year before the Clown Sira Coup. Nomura Ratings put out fake debt statistics in its Democleses index, and was corrected by the CBSL. Japan is Trumpland’s Asia Proxy, just like Saudi in Mid east.
    CBSL should have sued Nomura, just like Qatar is suing Banks that tried to crash its currency. The crash of the LKR rupee meant another 170 billion of debt for Lanka’s $$ denominated debt– Yes, there is an economic war from Washington Consensus Middle Income Country Debt trap -debt game bites… to prise Lanka from China…

  • 9
    9

    “In the Tamil mind Gota is indelibly scarred by war and atrocities against civilians.”

    In the minds of ‘Koti Diaspora’ and elite Wellala politicians Gota may be a war monger but the ordinary Demala people do not think that way. You are out of touch with ground realities. After the war ended, a large number of Demala youths have moved to South and work. They feel more comfortable among Sinhala people than among Wellala Demalu who still harass low caste Demala people. When low caste Demala people are among Sinhalayo, the caste factor no longer matters.
    ———–
    Although Wellala politicians are trying hard to remove Army from North, ordinary Demala folks want them to stay.
    ———–
    Days that Wellala politicians managed to fool the ordinary Demala people are over.
    ———–
    Low caste Demala people in the North do not want Land and Police powers given to NPC controlled by Wellala Demalu.

    • 2
      1

      “When low caste Demala people are among Sinhalayo, the caste factor no longer matters.”

      80% of the Singalayas in the country are actually low caste Demala converts. In order to hide their caste, most of the low caste Demalu in the country adopted Buddhism and got converted to Singala. That is how the Singala population became a majority in the country by absorbing all the low caste Demala converts.

    • 2
      0

      Potta Eagle,
      In the Eela (Hela) Demala’s mind, Gota or any Singala mother’s son or daughter rules the country, the Tamils don’t care. There is a Tamil saying, whether Rama rules or Ravana rules we have no issues. Whether Gota rules or any Singalaya rules, the Tamils don’t care. The Tamils have seen and experienced all these rulers. For the last two thousand odd years the Singalayas had been fighting with the Demalu, and it is still not over.

  • 2
    1

    “How will Trump-Lanka relations evolve if Ranil, Sajith or Karu turn out to be president?”
    It depends on how long Trump will last.
    +
    “…matter of balancing between India, China, the EU and America, in about that order of importance.”
    The order of importance will really be India, America, the EU and China in terms of being meddlesome and vindictive. With the Chinese it has always been business as usual in the Third World.
    +
    The UNP exploiting Gotabaya’s vulnerability: you cannot be serious. What use did it make of the vulnerability of members of the previous regime?
    +
    “Hitler actually won in Germany in 1933 you know!”
    You have a point there: Modi won in 2014 and Bolsonaro only months ago.
    With the US able to witch hunt Assange wit help from a man with Lenin for his forename, anything is possible.
    Yet, the fascist agenda is a little harder to implement these days.

    • 5
      8

      SJ

      “Yet, the fascist agenda is a little harder to implement these days.”

      True, the weeping widow, JR, MR, Rohana, VP, …………. tried and failed, however it did lot of damage to the people, freedom, economy, ………..
      There is a slim chance of another smart ass patriot, Sinhala/Buddhist fascist being elected to the top office, a few fear the prospect of former National Hangman.

  • 6
    10

    This Prof obviously hasn’t read about the Indo-Pacific concept (the US Pacific Command, PACOM actually renamed itself INDOPACOM), the Quad, and the strategic importance of Sri Lanka (the “epicenter”) as identified in Western strategic documents, official Congressional testimony and serious think-tank analyses (e.g. Heritage Foundation).

    • 7
      6

      Prof. Kumar David

      You should ignore anything coming from Heritage Foundation.
      Heritage Foundation traditionally is another scare mongering agency for selling more arms and supports Military Industrial Complex. Most of the time the Foundation’s predictions are ridiculed just like Dayan’s.

      Similarly please ignore anything coming from Dayan’s computer or his mouth. However we must understand one has the right to stop him dropping names.

    • 0
      0

      You have read nothing ! You backed the October coup !

  • 0
    3

    Just before bankruptcy some go all the way to Himalayas to ‘meditate’.
    Prof Kumar David goes all the way to US to ‘speculate…speculate…..speculate’.
    The other reason? To meet with ‘disciplinarian’, (KD’s word), GR?
    Why not speculate that GR has promised the U-turn of the type of the infamous Bob Hawke, a former Australian PM?
    But the SL voter is smarter than Australian voter.
    .
    Did KD get Rajan Phillips to give final touches?
    Or is the ‘bottle’ RP shared with KD and left behind still there?

    • 1
      0

      KP
      Do you have to be so personal?

  • 5
    1

    Hey buddy Kumar, Gota’s Presidential ambition is dead and none starter. The US wouldn’t let him renounce his citizenship until all these cases – let them be civil or criminal or other wise- are resolved, and he gets his slate spotlessly clean. None knows when all would be over but not this side of prior to the presidential nomination. Until and unless this issue is resolved his Presidential candidacy is going to be a none starter.

  • 1
    1

    What can happened in presidential election is if anti mahinda votes divided in to unp, jvp and Maithree the gotabaya has single horse race. This was what happened in last local government election the anti mahinda votes divided and mahinda won by 5/6 majority and unp alliance(unp, Muslim congress,digambaram,mano,rishard,hela urumaya ) lost very badly , jvp lost bad, Maithree lost bad. The mahindas slfp which was formed after 2005 the largest single party ever formed in srilankan history now named as pohottuwa has 5.7 million block votes .the vote base is like fixed deposit in a bank. If gota is a candidate he is starting his work with this 5.7 million fixed deposu block vote base. There will be 1.6 million sinhala fresh votes are coming in this election. And if got a can easily get 800000 votes from it and if he got 500000 from maithrees votes he will pass the margin of 7million votes and petecentage wise 52%. In unp alliance only have 3.6 million votes. There is 1.9 million registered voters in north and east if 75% of them cast their votes it is 1.4 million ( normally the maximum vote casting percentage is 69% in north & east ) . from this 1.4 million mahinda can get 300000 minimum votes with 23% Sinhalese in east and if he can get 7% Tamil Muslim votes
    Maximum unp can get if 90% Tamil Muslim voted for unp is 1.1 million. 300000 of this 1.1 million votes already in that 3.6 million unp alliance votes mainly of the vote base of Muslim congress . this clearly shows unp can additionaly get maximum of 800000 votes in presidential election. ( if Vigneswaran contest this will be also a disaster) . with 800000 votes unp alliance can come up to 4.4 million votes . they need another 2.6 million votes to come to 50% margin .

    • 1
      1

      If we say sajith or karu got 700000 fresh votes. They need another. 2 million. Votes . this 2 million votes are on jvp and maithrees hand. Jvp has 700000 and Maithree has 700000 votes . so if the anti Mahinda votes got devided in to unp, jvp and Maithree unp alliance + TNA unable to get atkeast 34% of votes. So we have to get ready for the another Hitler rule of slfp.slfp are master brains in economic and business management that is 100% true. but obviously they are Hitler’s not like pathola unp governments.

      • 0
        0

        Even the SLFP voters are sick of the corruption.
        .
        If we persuade a million voters to opt for strategic voting, using the Preferences, the result will likely be the same; but the way it was obtained will make a difference to the behaviour of the winner.
        .
        He’ll listen to us more; he will be less arrogant.

  • 1
    0

    Fantastic Selection Dr KD.
    The fat ones among the Forty thieves in Kotte will stay well and alive, as long as the Alibaba is at the TT?
    Don’t you worry about that.

    I am surprised Dr KD hasn’t heard about the Millennium Corporation’s new office at the Temple Trees which Mr Sagala has leased them.
    And ear marked One Hundred and Twenty thou Mahavamsa acres for them to Develop…

    I am not sure that 800 Acres in Magamapura which has been sold to the DMK Naduan with only 5% deposit , is part of it..

    UNP & Appa Sira from the SLFP won the last one, with all those promises of Free WiFi ,Nano Cars to Drive and VW with Mitchellin Tyres for our Dalits to Build and Export to earn FX to pay for Milk & Honey for the Elite.-
    And the hard hitting head Slogan to Jail all the Crooks lead by Rajaoakasa and his even Mother in Law and make the best and the purest PM in the Mavamsa History with Dr Ranil in the Gig.
    Moda Sinhalayas herded by Appa Sira, Keslwatta Kid , and Uncle Karu took the Bait

    As for DR KD’s Selection, all I know is Keselwatta Kid and the Uncle woun’t be able to sell the same lies again, even in Magamapaura, which Dr Ranil has given the kid to muster the Dalits..
    I am not sure where Uncl’s patch is.
    But his followers who are a bit above the Magampura lot is cash and tastes, won’t that easily convert this time, except the hard core dyed in the wool UNP Uncles and Aunties..

    Dr Ranil is different.
    He never depended on the Sinhala Baiyyas.
    Neither their Nikakayas.
    This time around Dr Ranil seems to have distanced himself a bit even from his Mahanikayass by going direct to Thirupathi God and the Poosris to get help , obviously for the main event.

  • 0
    0

    There is no point in predicting anything of Lankawe politics & Economy. Yes, New King is notoriously unpredictable man. Media, further, saying he is up again for something. They are backing off from predicting it this time. They are showing their experience of Oct, 26, 2018. In that case all what left for us taking with Prof. Kumar’ talk 0° (parallel-agreeing with him), 90° (crossing him), and 180° (Opposing him) is very little.
    Before we look at his talks, let’s look at China-Lankawe relationship, a little time back. Unlike many countries, during the war, China gave arms for both, Appe Aanduwa and LTTE. But the West was strictly with Aanduwa and even proscribed LTTE. Then, China, changed it path, redid the Nuraicholai bid to match Old Royals’ request. It was then China completely abandoned LTTE and stayed with Aanduwa. The hope of getting material help is the reason still some Tamils want to revive their relationship with China – a fruitless talk. It is true China doesn’t not force communism into countries the way USSR did. This is what helped the Old Royals to operate in Kleptocracy and Oligarchy. China managed Old Royals with Computer. But it Managed UNP by squeezing back the loan. In other words, China does forcing the Old Royals to borrow more. But it forced UNP to pay back that loan soon. That is why UNP sold the Hangbangtota. That will not happen with Old Royals. Now, after taming UNP, it is forcing UNP also to borrow more. But until recently, Colombo Media was reporting China was reluctant lend to UNP. That means, China will evolve as per the need to confirm its stay in Lankawe, rather than setting up a policy of how to deal with Lankawe and press Lankawe to bend for Chinese need.

  • 0
    0

    So we need to see what will happen “if“ the Old Royals come back. That “if” we need to use only to EP, but not to parliament.
    In Parliament election, it is sure they will come, but it is irrelevant of where Hakeem, Rishard, Mano, Thondaman or Thigamparam would stand. So there is good chance the 18A comes revived if the Slap Party wins in EP. Then the West will use GSP+ to Manage Old Royals (But with Old Royals, unlike with Ranil, instead of loan, China would prefer to use computers to manage Lankawe. This will cause Chinese loans to pile up very high under Old Royal’s time. That will make even very hard for UNP to manage the economy, if s they come on a later date). This is because China knows the Olds have the mind of sleeping with even leprosy bitches to save them from Tamils, NGOs and UNHRC. It means, no hold barred and anything goes. That is why there is no point in talking about economic policies, under any future Old Royals time.

    By judging with current economic activities, there is nothing Lankawe can do in economy with Chinese partnership (or even with India), if West start to punish Lankawe. It is then another Cuba or Venezuela, or Iran or North Korea. Please note our position here: It is not easy to West or India to yank China out from Lankawe or Lankawe to survive without West. (That was the reason, in last October, Ranil opted to hand over the government to Old Royals – he knows he cannot manage it without West. So if Old Royals take over the economy, all what we can say is another few more years of Sirimavo Communism (1970s) would return. i.e. more of BMICH, more of Lotus Tower, more of Colombo Pong Cing, not even additional Hangbangtotas-white elephants.

  • 0
    0

    Thus after we have assessed our inability to predict the uncertain Chinese policy on Lankawe and of un- forecast-ability of the Lankawe Economy, (especially under Old Royals), we can look at some points in the Essay too.
    About a year ago, (last May) we said that Old Brother Prince would be having deterrence from USA. Later, In June- July we saw his difficulty in the cancellation of dual Citizenship. Our forecast was based on Daily Mirrors’ earlier essay on Jaliya and withdrawal of Kariyawasam. Later we changed our prediction and said Old Royal family coming out with two candidates – one is Brother Prince. Now, it appears Old Royals may hinder Old Brother Prince and leave the EP candidacy to New King, to escape the current precarious situation. They met America. But they may be seeing it is still blocking Old Brother prince with an agreement with USA and placing one of their other candidates is impossible. So they seems to prefer block Old Brother Prince by the back door. America may still prefer one Opposition and one ruling EP candidates to ensure that who even wins will be with them. They lost completely on betting on CBK’s New King & Ranil’s Yahapalanaya. So USA would like to work out a deal with Old Brother Prince on his Citizenship cancellation. USA may not use the civil cases as an opportunity to stop him from standing to EP election. Ranil is really, really more dangerous than Old King to Western interests in Indian Ocean. Old Royals are Modayas, but Ranil is a smart guy, knows ways to deal with China or West or India. West has a little bit of a sense of this situation.

  • 0
    0

    Prof. Kumar says it is over rate the need of Lankawe to superpowers. In our case we cannot tell at what level we are over evaluating or under evaluating China, India and West’s need in Lankawe. So we will say, to some extents, China, India, and West are still care about Lankawe elections and they care about who comes to power in Lankawe. This is mainly about the Indian Ocean security rather than any trade fears. So we still think that China wants Old Royal to come and West wants UNP to come; because we did not change our earlier assumption as we did not see any convincing argument in the essay to contrary to that.

    He is predicting about the 21st century trade pattern between the super powers. That is too long for us to say anything. If we just look at the population to predict economic activity, Africa could become soon an economic power house. But there is no indication for that. For India its shaky democracy and for China its hybrid communism will be a drag after a level of development. All what we can says, when India and China’s economy mature, the trading accounts’ imbalances would disappear. Now American’s big economy is not a deal for Sweden, New Zealand, Singapore….. So that time the West will not have the same problem from the Chinese or Indian economy that they have now. That time, based on a crude formula, Imports=Export for all three super powers. Then it is immaterial that who would be the biggest economy, unless it is for war. We know the happiest countries these days are Finland, Demark, New Zealand….. Not USA, Russia, China……

  • 0
    0

    Mally,
    You have under estimated the Chinese contributions to post LTTE Lankawe.

    Thanks to the generous Financial input from them, we have one of the best Road Networks in South Asia.
    Which in turn has helped the rapid increase in Tourism, which is the best form of Economic Development for counties like Lankawe, which do not have High Tech Industries , or Natural Resources. or Pastureland..

    Even Dr Ranil had to eat the humble pie and take the Begging Bowl to China because his Western Buddies wouldn’t lend him the even Dosh after Dr Ranil bragging to build VWs and Michellin Tyres.

    Have you seen the new Chinese Shopping Mall ,& Condo development in Havelock Town Area.,covering 18 Acres. in addition to the 100 Acres in Galle Face?..

    What have the Yanks and the Poms whom Dr Ranil worship after Tirupathy, have done besides sponsoring Dr Ranil and Mangala’s UN Resolution?..

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      arsehole kas

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      KASmaalam K A Sumanasekera

      “Thanks to the generous Financial input from them, we have one of the best Road Networks in South Asia.”

      And you might as well let us have the following information:

      Total costs
      Total interest payable on loans and repayment period.
      Rate of interest.
      How many Chinese and how many poor inhabitants were employed in all categories?
      How much local materials and machinery were purchased for the project
      How much profit did the Chinese make in all projects?
      How many chinese prisoners were employed in this project while depriving our poor inhabitants of their right to employment? Or were they too proud to work for foreigners as they seemed to have rejected the opportunity to work for the Brits.
      Have you made sure all Chinese have been counted out of the island?

      What sort of consumer surplus or how much of it did the Chinese share with their local crooks, political robber barons, state functionaries, clan, ……………. and their b***s carriers?

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    Predicted world political trend next years to come may increase bargaining power of majority Sinhalese at any elections to come. If Majority Sinhalese use it very wise manner they may get lot of issues sorted out with regards to minority demands & their political behavior. As far as India is concern weather BJP led India or Congress led India can be friendly with Russia but can not be very closely friendly with Russia as earlier. India has to make very friendly cordial relationship with neighbors either big or small. otherwise it near future dream of becoming one of world economic super power may get shattered & China might go very big steps forward in this regards. As such lanka has power to get minorities issues solved. if possible dismantling JRJs foolish decisions in granting citizenship rights to estate workers who were awaiting to go back to India without referendum, kolvin R de Silva’s decision to grant equal statutes to Islam in 1972 constitution making all the other religions worshipers as viliest animals in front of lanken law. On top of that nationalist small parties can demand expulsion of Muslims brought here by Dutch from Malaysia & Java as well as expulsion of Muslims came here as refugees just after collapsed of Delhi sultanate rule in south India. Former may be to Malaysia & Java but latter to Pakistan. In that way we can get number of issues sorted out If our future Political leaders become bit wiser lot I suppose. . .

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    The Trostkist orthodox writer of david Kumar the guy be good at an Engineering, but not that good at politics of Dialectical methodology. That is why he wanted to be juxtaposition or bring together by of all political-economy school of thought into ONE.
    The immediate reasons is that, he (DK) lacks of outlook of Political-Economy’s philosophy; while that he is suffering from a visionless of ongoing balance of Global Value Chain (GVC) of New development came into being since 1990 . Therefor new globalization was turning point of has given an opportunity current Global economy has upside-down by 1991.
    His reading has confined to that politics of” Gota and Trump” that so-called Presidential race in 2020.
    That is limited to far from narrow on an adverse effects of Lanka. The world order has gone to higher level that beyond in line of his thought.

    The globe system of Political governance having different order has been an emerged or arise….since 1991.
    And economy of JUNTA mode of West and the PEOPLE-ORIENTED economy are TWO different line of development theory are that dramatically run on different directions.

    Later what I said People-oriented Economy , it has Sustainability of Development which has including how to think seriously about the our planet. By and large that nature have been provided us to natural habitation of all human kind and other livings in this Globe. We live and let live that simple term of an economy order suited every human kind . Those are will not that give any special privilege to that David Kumar always talk on that “Politics of Rights Tamil of Eealm” !@

    In David Kumar has to study well, not that half hearted way, it is true that the PEOPLE OF SRI LANKAN not to be trusted when solutions to their problems proposed by empty minded elites are monopolized by that by UNP of RW ,MS, TNA, JVP and CBK’s back 2015 January 8th precapations.

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    Gota, UNP-candidate and post presidential-election foreign policy: Foreign connections key to Lanka’s future – Excellent title.
    who ever comes, International community, just one country, not even the country a few of their officials, decides every thing

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