By S. Sivathasan –

S. Sivathasan

Heralding the New Year

Hardly ever has a single month made such convulsive changes in India, as in the religious and political landmarks of January 2024. The New Year itself was heralded by the inauguration of Maharishi Valkimi International Airport and the eye-catching Bus Station, both by Prime Minister Modi preceded by his lengthy Road Show. Birth of January saw the inauguration of the new Trichy International Airport. It was an occasion to announce a Trichy Development programme for Rs 198 billion. A visit to Sri Rangam Temple by Modi was a religious highlight.

Ram Mandir

The consecration of the new Ram Mandir in Ayodhya and the meticulously arranged religious ceremonies from January 22^nd was a 500-year dream come true for lakhs of devotees. Throughout India hundreds of millions had their own involvement through the electronic media. A multitude of events created the appropriate atmosphere for the leadership to engage with the polity for the ensuing elections. As the ceremonials ebbed away, there emerged a phenomenon not easily intelligible to everyone. The BJP became solidly consolidated with increasing numbers. The alliance in opposition started disintegrating to the benefit of BJP. Bihar and UP are two prominent examples.

With the Rubicon behind them, the BJP is now on a confident sprint. The correlation of forces in Tamil Nadu is transfiguring the electoral scene on a daily basis. The first half of February confirmed what I wrote on 1^st February – “Weekly progress in voter strength is anticipated till   mid-February and daily increase after Modi’s concluding visit to Palladam on February 18^th (now shifted to Feb. 25^th). In the eyes of the voters, the ever-changing puzzle will fall into place by mid-February, well in time before the mammoth meeting scheduled for February 25th.

Forecast Overtaken

I am pleased to note that realities have gone past my anticipation. The last quarter of 2023 has been a stirring period for the BJP consequent to the Pada Yatra led by Annamalai. The emerging BJP leader of state proportions if not national stature is there for all to recognize. The consecration of Ram Temple in Ayodhya in January 2024 and the Spectacular rise of BJP in January were coterminous. Hence the giant strides in February.

In the last week of January, Annamalai was very exultant that voter strength was double digit. As of now he as well as competent observers seem assured of 20+. They even bet on 30+ by beginning of March. The reason for euphoria is that 30% or more marks the beginning of adulation turning into sure votes and thence to seats. Experience in every election year has shown that the first month of poll – April – brings forth the most accurate prediction of voting pattern. Tamil Nadu electors have a sizeable 60 days for meditation and sagacious voting. The past six months have brought forth diverse groups of self-professed predictors to make their prognoses. A good development. It has given a splendid opportunity for tens of millions to sift the genuine from the fake. Money play is most cursed, but the dishonest are correctly isolated.

J.P. Nadda, National President of BJP India Speaking in Central Chennai – February 2024

DMK’S Theatricals

Some nine years ago when Prime Minister Modi came to Tamil Nadu, how was he received? With black balloons wafting in the sky carrying the script ’Go back Modi’. This to the three-time Chief Minister of Gujarat and now with the halo of Prime Minister. No Tamil anywhere in the world will ever forgive or forget this atrocious lack of grace or refinement from the DMK. Is it waning? No, it is waxing.

To BJP and Annamalai 2023 was very challenging. For the Launching of Padayatra in July of that year, Home Minister Amit Shah came. The Chief Minister lost no time in disabling the event by switching off lights in all strategic place. The same thing was done with greater vengeance for National President of BJP J. P. Nadda, when he came for the important event in Central Chennai. There was complete black out from the International Airport to markets and major roads. The meeting that followed was a great success. It was a slap in the face for the meanness and stupidity of the Chief Minister and his accomplices.

State President Annamalai and his cadres experienced the most unconscionable impediments to lawful Padayatra ‘En Mann En Makkal’. Denial of approvals, cutting off lights etc. in more than one hundred occasions became the meanest of operations. The result was ever increasing participation of volunteers, driving fear of defeat in the hearts and minds of the DMK.

Historic Announcement Awaited

The Prime Minister and the leader of the BJP are said to announce a historic decision at a meeting of BJP members and participants of over half a million. After the coalition Parties are fully aligned, a final declaration is said to follow on 25^th February 2024. When coalition partners and their positions are well known, it is child’s play for the voters to veer from material allurements of decrepit parties and to opt for the party deemed best for posterity. In such an environment the future of the people will be written in indelible terms.

As February settles down, the month of March will spring into hectic action to bring vaster numbers into the fold of the BJP. As they set about their mission with zeal, April 2024 will blazon forth its prospects in no unmistakable ways.

Research and Forecasts?

Objective examination, Go where statistics lead you, Faithful to cognition and many other high sounding verbiages merely camouflage wishful thoughts. Studies or Perusals of the immediate past, say five elections (1999 – 2019) and a few surveys certainly provide a staff on foggy terrain. Recent efforts have shown that the latest surveys and estimates in March or April just before the date of poll, have been closer than in previous months. This time around, forecast by the leader most engaged in electioneering in Tamil Nadu is most likely to be closest to reality and that too in early April 2024. Why so late? Simply because the mass mood in its highest pitch is changing by the day in its final lap!

How the Past Enlightens Us

Statistics of past general elections together with the performance of the primary contestants    provide quite a good clue. Yet there can be no mechanistic application or contrived   interpretation of available data. A distance in time of 57 years separates Annadurai’s alliterative prose and Annamalai’s convincing logic. Post Nehru era was losing its sheen by 1967 and after Kamaraj dispensation, his successor Bhaktavatsalam’s performance was lack lustre. In contrast is a decade of Modi ascendancy to whose performance Annamalai has hitched his stars. Nehru’s writings were illustrious and his speeches captivating. He however failed to touch the sensitive chords of the Tamil mind. Modi has consistently conveyed to the global audience the greatness of the Tamils, their language, literature, culture and their current contribution to the growth of Bharatha.

Conclusion

If a century from 1920 to 2020 is taken in Tamil Nadu and an attempt is made to identify who has been the best Chief Minister, assessed by the primary criterion of delivery of the highest good to the highest number, Kamaraj will reach the top notch. He had the advantage of a political party dedicated to service with an incomparable leader Nehru at the helm as Prime Minister.

Today the political fabric in the state is decayed. What is demanded is elimination warp and weft of the political fabric, that is inimical to the wellbeing of the state. For abrasive action what attributes should a deliverer have. Primarily, intellectuality of the highest calibre. Multi lingual capability as a most desired personal asset. Versatility deriving from wide reading which makes one stand apart as just primus without pares. Above all, honesty of which intellectual honesty is of the highest. Kural prescribes the parameters for invincibility. A person gifted with the power of speech, ever energetic and fearless cannot be vanquished.

If such a person is already spotted, Tamilian society is sure to follow him with alacrity.