Is This A One-Term Government?

Filed under: Colombo Telegraph,MORE OPINION,Opinion |

By Kumar David

Prof. Kumar David

Joint Opposition shreds Govt’s jugular; Ministers at cross-purposes; People are irate – Is this a One-Term government?

The Joint Opposition is like a bull elephant in must, but the disruption and uproar it is creating are not insanity without strategy. Racial intolerance and religious extremism, a toxic mix, is a calculated tool for a purpose. The purpose is not hidden; it is frankly declared, flaunted and avowed: “Bring down the government by the end of the year”. Documents (eg Vasu’s letter to JO MPs on 28 December 2016) and a profusion of press reports (cranky GL, joker Bandula, profane Wimal and invective spewing Dinesh) are explicit declarations of war. The regime, for its part, blunders; Ministers are at cross-purposes (a day does not pass without some Minister flatly contradicting another) and corruption spreads. But the government’s shenanigans are not my topic today; but soon I promise.

Sirisena and Ranil (S&R) haven’t the foggiest notion how to deal with the mounting threat and that’s what this piece is about. Government supporters, citizen’s movements (civil-society is a misnomer) and the grass-roots that went out on a limb to jettison Rajapaksa on 8 January are flummoxed. In my not-so-short lifetime I cannot recall a government, here or elsewhere, more laid back, prone flat on the track, paralysed in the face of a hurtling freight train. Three-wheeler drivers, trade unionists and fish vendors paint this sangfroid in graphic terms. In rich colloquial Sinhala one hears about the missing portions of Sririsena’s anatomy above the neck and Ranil’s below the waist. In public perception, cabinet, premier and president are at a nadir. Still the crucial point is this: It is not manifest blunders and rising corruption that are the prime grounds for public censure; it is inability to stand up and fight the JO on platform, media and eventually the streets. This is what undermines the government’s ability to govern and this is what will demolish its prospects of re-election.

Spent cartridges of the January 8 Movement

Let’s see what the government in running away from. Allow me to quote Ranga Jayasuriya – Daily Mirror, 7 March (edited for length). “JO members are couriers of MR so the issue revolves around him. The JO has obstructed every initiative, good, bad and ugly. It undermines economic programmes; in the words of its members it is waiting till ‘Sri Lanka crashes like Greece’. To that end its goons run riot in Hambantota, it has petitioned court against land lease to the Chinese for an economic zone. It (is doing) the utmost to scuttle constitutional reforms or accommodate Tamil aspirations”. Let me pile it on; the JO incites the GMOA to disrupt medical services but the state does not serve vacation of post notices. It eggs on medical students to boycott classes but the authorities handle them with kid gloves. The JO does all in its power to engineer a schism between President and PM who are failing to work as a team. Bigots dispense racism, flagrantly, to undermine the constitution. In summary, the JO is going for the juggler; the government is on the run.

President and Prime Minister have eschewed responsibility for mobilising the people to defeat this onslaught. Actually however the JO is weak; it can be confronted and beaten by mass action if Sirisena and Ranil had backbones. Unfortunately Sirisena has the wrong kind of backbone which allows him consort with chauvinism. Maybe both understand that once the masses are on the move, conservative leaders will not be able to hold back the sweep and momentum of events. Not stopping at trouncing JO and Rajapaksa rump, the movement will enlarge to socio-economic and democratic tasks that crooked Rajapaksa battalions nor S&R’s disheartened regiments ever dared to touch.

The Russian Revolution rose from February to October by defeating Kornilov’s coup in August. The great event was not October but the defeat of the counterrevolution in August; after that October was a foregone conclusion. Our born-loser leaders will take us down with them by letting reaction win by a walkover. Not Russia August 1917, but Chile September 1973 may be our prototype if the January 8 Movement does not wake up and defeat dark clouds and black hands.

Yes that’s right, Sirisena and Ranil are born losers; they will not mobilise nor will they come into the open. The January 8 Movement will have to intervene directly. Never forget that January 8 belongs to the people not to Maithripala, Ranil and Chandrika. It belongs to us, not them. True they intervened and played a very important role but the backdrop had been prepared by others in the two previous years. My Single Issue, Common Candidate concept caught on; highly regarded personalities like Rev. Sobitha came on board, dozens of citizens movements united to throw out Rajapaksa, the minorities joined and no denying the UNP mass vote bank made the difference. The SLFP by and large, including the scum now hugging cabinet portfolios, was a solid flank unified behind Mahinda in January 2015. Once again many SLFP ministers are playing a similar role; Mahinda’s fifth-column in the heart of the government ready to jump in whichever direction opportunism beckons.

The first test of whether this is a One-Term government will come in October – unless a constitutional amendment is enacted or a new constitution adopted before then. But a new constitution or substantial amendments before taking on and defeating (“on the fields and on the beaches, on the streets and in the gutter”) the counterrevolutionary forces is not possible. Nonsense, such a strategy is back to front and pie in the sky. No political victory over the JO NOW, means no constitution, no functioning economic programme, no effective trials of MR era goons and rogues, and no re-election in 2020! Only a fool can fail to see that the equation is as stark as that.

In about October three provincial elections will have to be held; Sabaragamuwa, North Central and Eastern Provinces must go to the polls. There is no way of circumventing it, no way to play ducks and drakes as with local government elections because the constitution is clear-cut. That is the catch-22; no mobilisation and political victory, equals no substantive constitutional change. Then the provincial elections will go ahead with the government’s tail between its legs. Provincial elections without a prior political victory over the JO amounts to certain defeat for the government in Sabaragamuwa and NCP. After victory the JO and the Rajapaksa will be emboldened. Catch-22!

This piece is 1300 words to make one simple point which is obvious once stated. Whether this government is a One-Term government or not will be decided in the next few months, it will be decided by whether the January 8 Movement (and the UNP, SLFP Sirisena-rump, and non-dead left, with S&R bringing up the rear) mobilises and defeats JO-Rajapaksa and the chauvinist counterrevolution NOW.  The encouraging side is that several (but not enough) January 8 groups have woken up and got down to grassroots work and political mobilisation. So don’t think the die is cast; reaction can be thrashed, there is still time enough.

There are those who think conventionally and inside the box. The run of the mill commentator muses that if the government pulls off an economic miracle (debt, deficit, growth, BoP – you know the usual formulae) that this is what will decide whether this government survives or not. I have a different take. These goodies will help and help a lot, but something else is more fundamental; who will win the political battle “on the fields and on the beaches, on the streets and in the gutter” – if you will forgive me borrowing florid verbal decoration – in the months ahead, long before 2020 dawns. Modi’s (more than BJP) stunning victory in the Utter Pradesh and Utterakhand state level elections last week show that the upward swing of global new-populism has not ended. The JO and MR are an egregious form of populism and should not be discounted.

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48 Responses to Is This A One-Term Government?

  1. 5
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    “Yes that’s right, Sirisena and Ranil are born losers.” Dr. David! What happened? Are you serious?

    Siribiris
    March 19, 2017 at 2:23 am
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  2. 6
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    According to one “Tamil” think tank, “In the vocabulary of the European colonialists, right from the Portuguese, the word Malabar was a reference to the combined land of Tamils and Malayalis.” Malabar? We proud Sri Lankans don’t mind. See how technicolor this all Tamil, racist daydream is?

    P. U. K
    March 19, 2017 at 3:39 am
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      P.U.K you are displaying your Sinhala racist mind Malabar is a combination of two Tamil words Malai – Hill Pur – region Malai pur – Hill region Malaipur became Malabar and you are right Malabar refers to Tamil regions in India Google and you will find the answer.

      Rajash
      March 19, 2017 at 3:34 pm
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    January 8 does not belong to the people any more than it belongs to the likes of Ranil, MY3 and Sobitha. The Architects, the muscle of that treason was the Swiss government, Norway, the fringes of the Obama administration and some diplomats of the UK. People should not delude themselves of this simple truth, even if they were willing participants (or misguided pawns – depending on your view).

    Janahitha
    March 19, 2017 at 5:00 am
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      You are just guessing, It was the people who were tired of this self proclaimed King MR His progenies and siblings were treating the peoples as fools who would fall prostrate whenever the King appears on the TV, or rallies. If you can’t understand what he planned by bring in the18th amendment to the constitution was he wanted to copy Mugabe Zimbabwe and stay in power till his natural demise. Then to hand over the rains to his imbecile son. Late Rev Sobitha having Understood his plan, He called for a Common candidate to oppose the King. Ranil was incapable. You can see that both My3 and Ranil are incapable in running a Government, So this Author is right this would be a one term government. Two of the SLFP ministers were rejected by the people, foolish MY3 brought them through the back door, As nominated MP’s and made them as ministers. If what you say that some the western governments were involved in the Regime change , Many like you still believe in this Myth. If There a next time UN army, or the west will walk in to keep peace and prevent, Any attempt by MR’s and his JO cohorts wants the power back. This would be to prevent any Riots. IN Geneva the UNHRC is playing to protect MY3 and Ranil’s government

      Bohdiseth
      March 21, 2017 at 12:02 am
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    As long as MR is alive in his unworthy life, the JO can’t win by any means. The trauma MR created is dominating the minds of ordinary masses and surely going to stay for years to come, is much more powerful than the absence of an economic miracle that is often given the least attention in choosing a government traditionally by the majority of Sri Lankans. An unproven S&R is better than getting ourselves ready for the next set of traumatization when lacking the luxury of choices. Poor us!

    Mohamed
    March 19, 2017 at 5:12 am
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  5. 6
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    Professor D paints a gloomy but very realistic picture of our political scene. The Yahapalanaya dream that was born so beautifully in 2015 has gradually turned into somewhat of nightmare. The truth is that because our politics is so top heavy with shysters and self-servers, it is inevitable that sooner or later the rot will set in. What sort of standards can you expect when ministers themselves are at it? Moreover, Ranil and M’pala are too busy watching their backs to discipline those they appointed. 2015 produced spectacular results because 1 The Sinhala Buddhist electorate fractured because many decent Buddhists could not tolerate any further the outrageously un-Buddhist actions of the Rajapaksa government, and 2 The ‘minority’ came out in force and voted with new-found hope. The disappointment of these groups may well lead them to lose hope, and indifference is the enemy of democracy. Meanwhile in a bunker not far from us, General Gota the Gentle Gardner (beautifier of cities) is chuckling quietly as he surveys the coming situation. Not only has he helped defeat the forces of evil, he may well get the chance to make our flowers bloom again. TWO questions come to mind immediately: 1 Will his ascent unleash the stifled forces of ethno-religion? 2 Will the importers be able to keep up with increased demand for white vans?

    Spring Koha
    March 19, 2017 at 6:35 am
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    Fully agree with the well analyzed and well presented comments of Prof.Kumar David. The so called Unity Government must mobilize its forces right now and as a matter of URGENCY to counter the more often than not flimsy allegations of the gregarious JO which can be easily countered on a day to day basis. The Government should appoint a group specially for this purpose and mobilize all their respective parties resources , if those in position are seemingly too busy with day to day governance to pay attention to the disruptive political rhetoric of the marauding opposition. The socio economic policies are mid and long term, that will take time to deliver and are also dependent on many an external factor, which could be sometimes beyond the control of any government. Hence the need to take on the disruptive political rhetoric with vigor in the short term, particularly given that the Provincial Elections will soon be coming.

    R.P. Perera
    March 19, 2017 at 8:50 am
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    Professor K.D, I feel in my bones that this WILL be a one-term government. Why? Because most voters are of mediocre intelligence (have a look at local TV programs for evidence) and have very short memories. Neither do they have any inclination to suffer hard times for a better future, unless of course they are presented with some dreadful scourge such as Prabhakaran. Come 2020, I think the Rajapakses will achieve their Second Coming, with Gota in the lead, mostly due to the indecision and squabbling in the present regime. By 2023, we will have 50 airports, a port in Kandy, highways to nowhere ,all named after the Great Leader. We will have a chance to view his kindly face on every lamp-post and TV. We CANNOT govern ourselves, period. Let’s set up an International Commission to select who can stand for office and who is too stupid to vote. Otherwise, let’s forget our bogus sovereignty and hand over the country to India.

    old codger
    March 19, 2017 at 9:35 am
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      old codger “let’s forget our bogus sovereignty” Agreed. “and hand over the country to India. ” Do you think Hindianisation is better than Sinhala/Buddhisation?

      Native Vedda
      March 20, 2017 at 4:38 am
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        Dear N.V, ” Do you think Hindianisation is better than Sinhala/Buddhisation?” Certainly. With a bridge installed, at least we will be able to drive our 150,000 Rupee used Marutis over there and not be stuck here in traffic jams.

        old codger
        March 20, 2017 at 3:59 pm
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    Prof David, do not dismay. One cannot rule out the possibility of one very looooooong term. The prolonging may not be in the style of the 2 year extension of the 1970 Janatha regime or the longer extension of the 1977 Dharmishta regime. We are looking to interesting times.

    SJ
    March 19, 2017 at 11:08 am
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    The author lets the cat out of the bag by his statement, “Unfortunately Sirisena has the wrong kind of backbone which allows him consort with chauvinism”. So, the problem is that the Tamil extremism will not get what they want because MS’s backbone is strong enough not to allow that, is it? If that is the case, then all of the misdeeds and inaction in other departments by this government is worth tolerating, because the country will remain undivided. An undivided Sri Lanka is a must before all else. That is what we have been fighting for over 2500 years. AKD cannot help bringing in the October revolution and the other happening related to whenever he writes or speaks. His understanding of political reaction of the people seems to be as poor as, if not worse than, his understanding the reaction of reactive power in power systems.

    EDWIN RODRIGO
    March 19, 2017 at 12:31 pm
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      EDWIN RODRIGO, Don’t you think that 2500 years fighting just to keep it undivided without developments, improvements or recognition of a piece of land is pure idiotic? Perhaps this could have been the same fate of India without partitioning, but remember it all started with increasing racial discrimination between the Hindus and Muslims that created intense racial feelings. Perhaps, I feel that SL’s current status is that of pre-partitioned India with what is happening around. There is no point in singing “undivided SL” and “co-existence” when such real environment is not created by every stakeholder. We are living with cancer.

      Fathima
      March 19, 2017 at 4:33 pm
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        Fathima, first survival – then development. Dead men don’t need development except perhaps in the cemeteries. Our achievement is that we have been fighting as well as developing, defending ourselves and our achievements against invaders for 2,500 years. If not for that we would be extinct by now, like the Mayas of South America. Recently, we defended our country against the Western invaders who were unable to conquer the Kandyan Kingdom while India was conquered completely by them. The British tried very hard but failed, until our own people treacherously gave it away to the them. More recently, free education from kindergarten to College, free health service an efficient administrative service and a fair justice system have been our achievements.

        EDWIN RODRIGO
        March 19, 2017 at 5:47 pm
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          Really, Mr. Edwin, you should know better than to write: “More recently, free education from kindergarten to College, free health service an efficient administrative service and a fair justice system have been our achievements. ” Free education? Which parent doesn’t pay for tuition? Free health care? Try getting free heart surgery. Efficient administration? Fair justice system? Where have you been living?

          romani
          March 19, 2017 at 10:19 pm
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            Edwin rodrigo: Eventhe British could invade the upcountry because a Tamil king was there. We should not allow that to happen happen again.

            jim softy
            March 20, 2017 at 12:32 am
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              Sathara Varam Devas I have been in communication with the Sathara Varam Devas. They assured me that it will not happen again. Last time they allowed the Tamil guy to rule because they were looking in to the future and found that Sri Lanka will have to change things to suit the changes in the world economy . The British were the best for that. They were just the vehicle through which changes came. As No Sinhalese would favor para Suddas he got the Tamil guy to do the dirty work. We all know how good his kind is in doing dirty work. We have to view these things in the cosmic scale where the British rule was a blink of an eye. Besides the Devas were sick of water everyday and every meal and wanted something new. Tea was the divine answer.

              Edwin Rodrigo
              March 20, 2017 at 3:50 am
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              We should not allow SVR but allow Dom Juan and softy! This part Softy didn’t write, Thero de Silva wrote and gave it to him. That is why sucks so bad. Even below softy’s Modaya standard.

              Mallaiyuran
              March 20, 2017 at 6:18 am
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            Dumb Romani: where do you get education 100% free ? where do you get heart surgery without paying a cent ? In Tamilnadu ?

            jim softy
            March 20, 2017 at 12:33 am
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              jim softy dimwit “where do you get heart surgery without paying a cent ?” Principles and values that guide the NHS (UK) The NHS was created out of the ideal that good healthcare should be available to all, regardless of wealth. When it was launched by the then minister of health, Aneurin Bevan, on July 5 1948, it was based on three core principles: that it meet the needs of everyone that it be free at the point of delivery that it be based on clinical need, not ability to pay These three principles have guided the development of the NHS over more than 60 years and remain at its core. …….. http://www.nhs.uk/NHSEngland/thenhs/about/ Pages/nhscoreprinciples.aspx

              Native Vedda
              March 20, 2017 at 4:48 am
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              Mr. Jim, Why call it free then? Did your parents not send you for tuition? Is that why you are stupid?

              romani
              March 20, 2017 at 10:09 am
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          EDWIN RODRIGO, Love the humor though :)

          Fathima
          March 20, 2017 at 1:56 am
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          • 0
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            Salaam Alekum, Fatima. I am quite serious about the topic. humor not intended.

            EDWIN RODRIGO
            March 20, 2017 at 2:58 pm
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          Edwin There was fighting of invasions, some of them ruinous, but not most of the time. Rivals brought in Velakkara mercenaries from the Pandya kingdom mostly (not the aggressive Cholas) to capture power. That habit persisted with using the Portuguese, then the Dutch and then the British to the peril of the country. It is dangerous to extrapolate current politics to the history of many centuries ago. If you take the British royalty of the past few centuries, they had more ‘foreign blood’ in them than English (if there is a thing called English blood). The state of any pre-capitalist country was not ‘nationalistic’ the way we perceive a state today. Much of the explicitly and viciously racist comments here do not help anyone. I cannot understand why the CT tolerates them. (To use a phrase attributed to Queen Victoria, “WE are not amused.”) Historians can be mischievous; amateur historians and commentators seem worse.

          SJ
          March 23, 2017 at 9:17 am
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        Fathima: YOu talk with a typical migrent mind in Sri lanka. YOu don’t know Sri Lankan culture. It looks you are muslim.

        jim softy
        March 20, 2017 at 12:30 am
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          jim softy, It is not just I look Muslim, I am a Muslim and I talk sense. “The Wealth and Poverty of Nations, David Landes concludes that the success of national economies is driven by cultural factors more than anything else” – David Saul Landes was a professor of economics and of history at Harvard University. Seriously, if you think it is the culture that holds us back, we need a cultural change. Me, as a person who want my kids and grand-kids to talk proud of this country, I would support it. And, I know that your idiotic racist narrow-mind can’t accept changes for good. Or, are you sarcastic enough to say “It is Sri Lankan culture to keep on fighting forever with no positive results”? (read your own comment again man)

          Fathima
          March 20, 2017 at 8:44 am
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          jim Softy, SL has been a migrant factory, not a consumer – What is the use of talking big about culture when main source of income has been sending its citizens to serve as “modern slaves”, be it to the Middle-east, Asia, West or US. Probably you’re one of them

          Thilosan
          March 20, 2017 at 9:09 am
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          Mr. Jim, “YOu talk with a typical migrent mind in Sri lanka.” Why, aiyo? Don’t you think Mr.Edwin is funny?

          romani
          March 20, 2017 at 10:12 am
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  10. 1
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    Going by recent results, one term governments are rare. Given the multiplicity of issues (created mainly by the previous government) faced by the incumbent government, solutions can’t be expected to be provided overnight. Ultimately the voters will decide what they want and they will get what they deserve. That opportunity will be given in 2020. I see no possibility of change of Government prior to that. It’s hard to predict the outcome in 2020 but bringing back known failed Leaders who are self serving corrupt and racist rogues will be disastrous for the country, The Government has 3 more years to deliver its promises.

    Gamini
    March 19, 2017 at 2:04 pm
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  11. 0
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    No this is actually second term MS RW & Rajapksa de facto government.!

    Leonard
    March 19, 2017 at 2:22 pm
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    Even if this Government is completely useless, is bringing back Mahinda Rajapakse (Mara Mara – Chathu Mara etc. to use Amarasiri’s words) the right answer? To say YES is to insult the capability of all other Sri Lankans except the Mara Senava. Are we so bankrupt as a nation of 22 million to admit that there is only one competent group (the Mara Senava) to lead it. I don’t think so. The Mara Senava are real idiots. They thought that the country can be run on Malayalee black magic. It is not our business to say anything if they want to run their personal affairs on the advice of Hora Guras. But when they want to decide the fate of every citizen in this country on such rubbish then I say NO. We will not allow that. So Mahinda or his Mara Senava is definitely not the answer. If this Government collapses, the hour will produce the man or group to lead it. But it should not be Mara Mara – Chathu Mara or Gota Mara or any other Mara.

    EDWIN RODRIGO
    March 19, 2017 at 4:03 pm
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      ” If this Government collapses, the hour will produce the man or group to lead it.” Yes, but all men of the hour so far have turned out to have feet of clay.

      old codger
      March 19, 2017 at 10:24 pm
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        A Duarte as President? What do you want? A Duarte, like in Philippines? He has killed 1000’s without a proper trial on drug charges. Is that what we want here? I don’t think so! Anyway, my housekeeper Silvestra likes (no – loves) Duarte. So do all the Philippinos that I have met here. Silvestra says the drug menace should be completely eradicated. Perhaps she is right. Not perhaps, she is always right. Even when she is wrong. May be we need a Duarte.

        Edwin Rodrigo
        March 20, 2017 at 3:30 am
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        සතර වරම් දෙවිවරු So far. So far is not always. Have hopes. This country has had its ups and downs in the last 2600 years. But we have always risen up from the ashes like the Phoenix. I have faith that the Sataravaram Devas protect this country, which Buddha chose as the place where pure Dhamma would survive. You can play to a certain extent. But if you continue too far, you will be taken out. That is what happened to the Spherical God of the Tamils.

        Edwin Rodrigo
        March 20, 2017 at 3:39 am
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    SL politics is a joke, just as the popular Sinhala song goes, it is a ‘comedy country’. Where else do you get a President & PM of opposing parties with nothing in common in terms of party policy, jointly ‘ruling’ the country? Coalition Govts. are nothing new but when the President, who the constitution expects to be impartial, appoints former MPs of his party, rejected by the people & those with no apparent educational qualifications or suitability to the Parliament,, thereby creating a unique situation where some of the Govt. MPs & the opposition are from the same party, isn’t it laughable?. Naturally, with MPs pulling in all directions, the country is going no where. MS has shown time & again his unsuitability as the President of the country. He lacks the education, intellect & integrity but tries to prove his leadership qualities by trying to copy the charisma of his predecessor. The only reason MS was selected as the common candidate was because the previous regime made sure that the UNP under Ranil would never win an election, therefore, a ‘moderate’ puppet within the ruling party, acceptable to the masses, was necessary to topple the charismatic but hugely corrupt leader. The strategy worked & now MS has outlived his usefulness. It is time now for a proper election & suitable PM & President to be elected but who will come forward is the big question. MS is a non runner & Gota / MR combination would be the most likely JO candidate but would Ranil be able to lead the UNP to victory? Ranil is a better & able candidate but his support for cronyism & inability to crack the whip to reform his party, seriously undermines his leadership. Therefore, Prof. Davids words of wisdom ”The JO and MR are an egregious form of populism and should not be discounted” is very real.

    Raj
    March 19, 2017 at 4:13 pm
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      Every recent Sri Lanka government has been corrupt. And Ranil/Sira regime is the worst. If Rajapakses were overly corrupt, in this digital age, billions of so called Rajapakse’s money stashed abroad should have been found by now. I mean look at what some of them are charged with. By now, those who have voted for the swan knows they were deceived by lies and deceit.

      Banda
      March 20, 2017 at 8:10 am
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    It will be Half a Term , if Sira is game enough to call an Election.

    K A Sumanasekera
    March 20, 2017 at 12:37 am
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      K A Sumanasekera “It will be Half a Term , if Sira is game enough to call an Election.” Probably none will be left in the JO.

      Native Vedda
      March 20, 2017 at 4:27 am
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      At the rate it goes, yes, it does not show the promise of completing a full term. But how can an elections be called? The parliament cannot be dissolved before four and a half years on Sira’s dictates, unless he secures a two third’s majority in the existing parliament. So Sira must first cause that breakaway of the UNP to do so. What are the possibilities of that happening? On the contrary what are the chances that Ranil can get the support of the rest of the members of the house to impeach Sira?

      Common Sense
      March 20, 2017 at 6:53 am
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    Agree with K.A.S. It will definitely be a half term if the local govt elections are held if this gang is democratic enough. Kumar David, Thisaranee Gunasekera, and others have a very different take on democracy. JO retains it’s popular following not because people are dumb. Though masses showed revulsion to the corrupt practices of the previous govt, they now know in all other spheres JO as representatives of the previous govt possess much better credentials of GOVERNING the country BETTER. They also know that the present mob is no less corrupt too. MR & GR leadership is still the better alternative if we view current political landscape dispassionately. By referring to Chile in fact KD is urging the MS+RW+CBK junta to follow Pinochet and not Allende. A greater mass mobilisation on the part of JO including a second and third tier leadership ready to take the struggle forward in the face of impending arrests or physical elimination of JO top leadership is THE need of the hour.

    Hela
    March 20, 2017 at 4:56 am
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    Is not Jan 8, 2016 the zenith reached by unprecedented lies and deceit.

    Banda
    March 20, 2017 at 5:37 am
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    I agree with K.A Sumanasekera. The reason behind current Yahapalanaya’s utter failure is the fact that it is riding two horses (MS and RW) running in two opposing directions. The gullible backers are even worse; they whip the two exhausted oldies and the duo cannot make any sensible judgments about directions; instead they, being afraid of the next whip lash which is sure to come, have to run without thinking (means without any aim). Obviously, the nation is in considerable anarchy and all the public services are in disarray. Foreign investments and the $$$ stocks are disappearing much faster than the dwindling popularity of the two leaders and their parties. (From VAT melange, CB Bond Scam to SAITM and delays in local govt elections, we have tons of examples for the last two years to put the blame on the two; and MR is hitting sixes with closed eyes). At one point (probably before the end of 2017) RW and MS will be compelled by a series of popular uprisings to make a decision on dissolving parliament in order to get rid of the lame-duck legislature. If it happens, and the next Parliamentary election will be a piece of cake for the JO led by the Rajapaksas; the new Parliament would eventually impeach MS for having blindly ignored Yahapalana ‘crimes’ and kick him out too (depending on the political weather forecast). The popular anger in the country is so obvious that even expatriate Sri Lankans from far away feel it. Prof. K.D has sensed it and worded the situation in no uncertain terms as an intellectual but it is now too late to do anything to rescue the Y- leaders and their two aimless teams that act like loose cannons. In Sri Lanka when you are damned you are damned for life! Many will say then, even on CT, that ‘C’est la vie!

    Expat Lankan
    March 20, 2017 at 6:19 am
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    Many points are discussed. But the title question remains not answered. One reason for that inability is the question is too open and the capacity ranges of variables considered are varying ±∞. First we will try to narrow the range problem of the variable by redefining our way and then give short trial to answer. Of cause 300 words are not enough for that. Title is talking about this government. That word is very open and wide. Let’s start with Yahapalanaya’s CC. EP is the main part of the government’s authority. The EP was brought by TNA, UNP, JVP, Hela Urumaya -Champika faction, loose support of Muslim community and the three of New King + Chandrika (the power broker) and Thero Sobitha. The original term period for CC was 90 days, then the new Constitution and then one full term, that is new 5 years and now the question if he is coming back. We are not rushing here suggesting another 18A and make the discussion more complicated or would defeat our original purpose of limiting the ranges for consideration. Apparently, EP is no longer with who brought him and part of those brought also not with him. He is now complete, clean SLFP. His decision on Dilrukshi is a clear SWRD, Sirimavo style SLFP’s dictator decision. So there is no National Unity is present in EP anymore. Let’s look at Jan, 2015 election quickly. New King won Old King lost, for the democratic purpose. If so, for the democratic purpose Old King did not win even in 2005 too. This raises the question of “is the data we have can predict the coming election”? That is the part of the question of whether the Yahapalanaya EP is short term, one term, two terms or multi term EP.

    Mallaiyuran
    March 20, 2017 at 10:00 am
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    National unity government, nothing to do with any election, but is an agreement between UNP and SLFP for two years to change the constitution and disband. The other element of Yahapalanaya is the parliament. By Parliament, we are logically including the cabinet too. The Sinhala Parties have had their opportunity to change the constitution of Soulbury, which was a secular, multi-racial and minority protected constitution into a Sinhala Only- Buddhism Special status Constitution. The need expressed to unity government was to change the constitution to rectify the faults of 1972 and 1978 constitutions which made only make the country anti-minority and anti- secular democratic. It was felt that by rousing the Anti minority feelings, the constitutions have allured the voters to create dictators, who were the mass murders and corrupted ones like Junius Richard, Richard. P and Percy, the Old King. If a national unity Yahapalanaya is there, this time, it was suggested that the minorities’ wish could be included as neither UNP nor SLFP would have to take the blame alone (one-sided disadvantage in election) for having lent to minorities complains. But the reason for Sirimavo’s 1971 (Daily News Obituary of Death of D.M.O. Cracy obituary) mass murders and her earlier corruption were not explained -(cruelty and corruption is the nature of the Sinhala leaders). So the above reason cited for unity is, as usual, an insincere trick. The true internal reason for National Unity is 19th amendment and external reason was interference of IC. The previous “is” and “was” are not grammatical error but to portray the actual situation of and its effects of the needs for more ministers and the extension of resolution 30/1 for two more years. The extension is indicating the possibility to evade the IC pressure; more ministers is to keep National Unity alive.

    Mallaiyuran
    March 20, 2017 at 10:00 am
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    We need to define one more element in our way to answer the title question. That is the JO- the Joint Comedy Club. Professor Kumar had identified the important personalities of this club with appropriate adjectives. Further he has indicated that it was only temporarily formed with lack of focus. But our question who is this Joint Comedy Club physically exists. If so who is the leader? The perception of Sinhala Buddhist is Old King. But the Peradeniya Walking was presided by Dullas. Brother Prince is the suggested EP. Younger Brother Prince was responsible to from the party. Bandula leads the activities. Denish is the official head of the Joint Comedy Club. GL is the new party owner. Apparently so far there is not leader for the Club. The Comedy Club is still the part of the National Unity government. That is not even a dissident group. It is few Blackmailers within the National unity government convulse to steal few more minster posts. The greatest joke of the Joint Comedy clubs is, with its 60 members, it is not able to take away the Official Opposition from the weakest 16 member Tamils party, TNA. Then where is this Comedy Club practically exiting other some individual destructive members? By all indications, if TNA resigns, JVP will be the opposition but not the Joint Comedy Club. The communist Dinesh wasted 1 million coconuts but has not secured a legal status for the Comedy Club. These rowdies are not showing any individual self-confidence of even that of Anura Kumara or Kumar Gunaratnam. Other than showing excessive rowdiness inside the Parliament, there is no indication of if they have moved any more mass than they had in 2015 election. (Remember – the October, 2015 election was about SLFP election not Comedy Club’s election.)

    Mallaiyuran
    March 20, 2017 at 10:01 am
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    So will this National Unity last until 2019-2020?. I don’t see why not. Is the October a threat to National unity? Even if there is an election of provincial governments (extremely unlikely Yahapalanaya, at this condition, without designing a technique to postpone election), why one want to think the government would fall apart dismantling the 100 member cabinet? Are all the SLFP ministers ready to break the unity government and loose the minister posts? Suppose they dismissed even Ranil and UNP. Who will be the SLFP PM? Can it go beyond Old Royal family? Does the New King have a back bone to dismiss Ranil and go to UNHRC with one of Old Royals as PM? What is the status of Joint Comedy Club in the next provincial election? Will they stand against SLFP? Does Old King who ran out of TTH, will be ready to show his head black to IC again? (He may not seek any position in the PC election; but if he split SLFP, he is tearing his mask and showing his ID for next election). Last election was not won with Sinhala Buddhist’s votes. That was with Tamils, Muslims and Sinhala Middle class UNP votes. A few Tamils and Muslims may boycott the New King next time; but not others as may not have another candidate to vote. If UNP plant its candidate, no UNP votes. He will get SLFP votes that Old King got in the last election. 19A retrospectively violated Old King’s civil rights, as Old King had stood for election with 18A; but he will not challenge 19A. So there is no foreseeable threat to New King’s future position. Even if SLFP wins Parliament election, UNP is needed to form a cabinet under 19A. So still SLFP- UNP government is highly possible.

    Mallaiyuran
    March 20, 2017 at 10:01 am
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    The movement of 8th January is movement of bunch of all reactionary forces get to gather had undermined the values of all norms of Democracy been that accepts Parliamentary form of governances and President is head of State since 1948. The Democracy has gone no where not only in the Parliament and but outside Parliament. All accepts norms democracy and rule of justice has been upside down by 26 months of short period of time in ours modern political democracy came into being . By and large current regime led by UNP-Ranil W.. MS and CBK of Tamil-federalist has destroy whole old political package build last 68 years. Regain and re-order is unseen task is difficult mission for irrational political parties and their leaders. This will led to political anarchism and economic disorder of casptostrop of crisis that undermined foundation of Sri Lanoka depended of weak economy. Which has been undermined reactionaries forces by leading bunch of Trotskyist whom want to dismantle central state by destroy existence post-democratic order after independence in 1948. That was massive political task and ideological was undertaken by Trotskyist theoretician ; they provided and guided line for Tamil-and Sinhalese by Trotskyist by name of Rights of Tamil nation new political venture of power devolution of proposed by new constitution changes for Republic of SL? Our right thinking people are now confuses by that political order of day has no proper directions by themselves. The January 8th movement has misled whole country and leading political parties ,there is where to go and what to be done in future our nation ? The Unaddressed and unsolved problems remain key issues of Politics and Economic in ongoing order of Sri lanka? Leading Political Parties has no vision to led people and path of capitalism has lost their vision ? The World political -economic balances has rapid changes has taken place ,new shifting Economic muscles need new path of Capitalism to be cater for Capital and Trading of Global market. The very Trotskyist cannot fill the political vacuum of democracy task . Why is that our era is represents sustainability of capitalism, that is task belongs to New bourgeoisies revolution led by bourgeoisies even you like it or NOT.

    D.Nimal
    March 20, 2017 at 1:42 pm
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