By Mohamed Harees –

Lukman Harees

Sri Lanka’s race to elect its 9th Executive President ended and so did the perceptible racist and corrupt 2-party power sharing arrangement, which for over seven decades has been a bane, and dominated the political landscape of this South Asian nation. People eagerly went to polls this Saturday, just over two years after the historic Aragalaya (the Struggle)which saw a massive public movement to oust the once powerful ,corrupt and racist Rajapakse dynasty  which took the country to bankruptcy. The left leaning  NPP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) from humble beginnings, was elected to occupy this highest office, winning by a substantial margin over his next rival Sajith Premadasa of SJB . KID’s meteoric rise to power from a poor 3% show  in 2019 (when Gota came to power with a massive 6.9 Mn vote bank)  to 42% in 2024 was remarkable and his historic win only reflected Sri Lanka’s thirst for a radical political change and to clear the deeply polluted political stables. AKD and his NPP deserve the nation’s praise and admiration for their enviable achievement , and for their singular success in bringing the people to accept their framework to institute the ‘Change’ they wanted. Kudos to you AKD!   

Sri Lanka’s Presidential Elections triggered immense curiosity in the country and the region. It involved a lot of first-times: it was the first election after the ‘Aragalaya’ and the economic crisis; it was for the first time that four heavyweights (out of 39 contestants) contested in the election, and it was for the first time that the Tamil parties also came up with their candidate.

AKD is no stranger to Sri Lankan politics. As the leader of the NPP, he has built a reputation as a strong and a credible advocate for social justice, economic reform, and environmental sustainability. His candidacy for the 2024 presidential election represents a continuation of these values, with his manifesto serving as a blueprint for the changes he envisioned for the country. His manifesto served to distinguished himself from other candidates in the race, providing voters with a clear understanding of what he stands for. One of the central themes of his manifesto is economic reform, and a range of initiatives aimed at promoting equality and ensuring that all citizens have access to basic services and opportunities. These initiatives include reforms in education, healthcare, and social welfare, with a particular emphasis on supporting marginalized and disadvantaged communities. By addressing both linguistic communities – Sinhala ad Tamil, he demonstrated his understanding of the country’s diverse population and his desire to represent all Sri Lankans. This approach no doubt resonated with voters who value unity and inclusivity. Thus, by focusing on economic reform, social justice, and also environmental sustainability, AKD outlined a plan that addresses the most pressing issues facing the country. People voted for much needed reforms, public accountability and to end the impunity crisis.

AKD indeed carried a charismatic personality and observers say that it was almost palpable that he is dynamo. He brings a certain kind of vitality and charisma to this role, and many people in Sri Lanka have chosen to take this ‘gamble’ with him as they lost all confidence in the old guard. He has been in parliament for two decades and he has seen the way the political game was played, but what he is claiming is that he brings to it a new lease of life and that under his leadership, he will bring a new wind of change. Analysts say his Presidency would fill two voids in the country’s politics. Firstly, the political void created by the complete loss of faith in the Rajapaksa family, which has held the presidency or prime minister position for about 15 years. Secondly, the political void created in centre-left politics, when the Rajapaksas took the previous centre-left political block toward right-wing policies. The election result clearly showed the Aragalaya that we witnessed in 2022 is not over. People have voted in line with those aspirations to have different political practices and political institutions. AKD reflected these aspirations and people have rallied around him.

Among the messaging that resonated with voters, his promises of “radically rooting out the culture of corruption, racism as well as impunity” in the country reigned high. The electorate felt that whatever political leaders they have turned to in the last few decades have been sowing this toxic political culture, and that the traditional political leaders can no longer be trusted to extricate Sri Lanka from those malaises. So, the idea that this was a candidate outside that history, was a candidate who held out the hope of change and seemed committed to rooting out the culture of corruption, was very appealing to the voter. AKD said after his victory, “We believe that we can turn this country around, we can build a stable government… and move forward. For me this is not a position, it is a responsibility”.

AKD positioned his NPP coalition, built around his old JV. party as its largest partner, as the best positioned to deliver the public demands of the Aragalaya(protest movement )for cleaning up Sri Lanka’s deeply entrenched political patronage and corruption. He brought in new faces at the top, and focused on reaching out to and mobilizing women, who were particularly hard hit by the economic collapse. He gave the Sri Lankan electorate a workable political alternative, by successfully leading a rebranding effort of his half-century-old leftist party, building a large coalition, softening its radical positions, and pitching it as the answer to the politics of patronage that has brought only hardship to many of the island nation’s roughly 22 million people. His efforts appeared to have resonated with a tired public ready for change.

The election was also referendum on the incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who took over the reigns from the outsted Gotabaya and claimed that he has led the heavily indebted nation’s fragile economic recovery from an economic meltdown but the austerity measures that were key to this recovery as well as suppression of human rights angered voters. Ranil and the ruling SLPP leaders postponed the local government elections scheduled for March 2023 when it was clear they would get trounced. Sri Lanka’s Supreme Court ruled this action violated voters’ rights, yet some feared Ranil would look for ways to also cancel the Presidential poll. A large section of the population was also unhappy because they believed Ranil’s administration protected the Rajapaksa family, which has been accused of economic mismanagement and corruption. Many felt the family should be held accountable. As part of his government’s reforms programme, laws passed such as the Online Safety Act and the Anti-terrorism Act have also been criticised by Human Rights Watch as detrimental to democratic freedoms and rights. Despite his campaign rhetoric of having stabilised the economy, the growing poverty and inequality in the country made him increasingly unpopular.

AKD was very decisive and confident in the pledges he made carrying hopes of the nation, during the intensive campaign period. One of AKD’s first challenges and priorities will be to fix the battered economy. His manifesto proposals show a receptive and a feasible attitude to welcoming private and foreign investments and renegotiating rather than scrapping the IMF $2.9 Bn bailout package. He has promised to ensure a system change and to clean up the political stables. His immediate priorities will be to dissolve the Parliament and to appoint a caretaker cabinet and administration as well as to abolish many Presidential and legislators’ perks and privileges. His medium/long term strategy will be to translate into action his electoral promise to eventually abolish the current system of executive presidency, a matter that has refused to die down in the political discourse of the country for over 40 years.

AKD will be assuming charge under not so comfortable conditions and require the understanding and cooperation from section of the society as Sri Lanka continues to face several economic challenges. Between 2019 and 2023 poverty levels more than doubled with over a quarter of the population living below the poverty line. Sri Lanka is said to hold the world’s highest interest payments to government revenue ratio and the grace period on bilateral loan repayments will expire in 2028. There were multiple reasons for Sri Lanka’s economic distress. Sri Lanka will continue to struggle economically. This will be especially so after the government starts repaying loans in 2028. The economic crisis will likely prevent the incoming President from pursuing drastically different foreign policies. The current economic crisis, was said to have been precipitated by so-called China’s ‘debt trap’ diplomacy, the damage done by economic mismanagement and unwise policies put in place by previous Sri Lankan governments, which included tax cuts, subsidy increases, and debt-fuelled infrastructure spending that worsened the country’s fiscal position, as well as a ban on fertilizer imports that led to an increase in food imports.

There is also a geopolitical angle to developments in Sri Lanka. Regular visits by Indian and Chinese naval vessels illustrate Sri Lanka’s importance in the geopolitical rivalry between the two countries –and this has policy implications. The truth is that while governments in Sri Lanka – and across South Asia – tend to oscillate between pro-India and pro-China rhetoric, in reality, they cannot afford to alienate either country. Sustained reform momentum thus must be underpinned by Sri Lanka’s continued geopolitical neutrality amid tensions between its key economic partners India and China. Besides, US has geo-political interests in the Island nation too. In this context, a recent Social Indicator poll conducted through the Centre for Policy Alternatives, a Colombo-based think tank, showed that a majority of Sri Lankans see Japan as a more preferable partner for Sri Lanka over the US, India and China .

The Way Ahead:

As per experts, ultimately, leading Sri Lanka out of its economic woes will require policy consistency. Sustained implementation of structural reforms, meanwhile, coupled with continued improvements to the country’s remittance inflows and tourism sector will help facilitate additional capital inflows. Experts point out that Sri Lanka will have to make further tough decisions on austerity measures to balance the books and meet its debt obligations.

Another challenge for Dissanayake will be to reach out to the country’s Tamil and Muslim minorities. Tamils in the N-E have been seeking devolution of powers to the north and east and reconciliation since the end of a civil war in May 2009. Sri Lankan government’s promises to share power and devolve their own political authority in Tamil-majority areas have largely failed to materialise. Though the votes for the NPP have increased in the N-E, Tamils did not vote for AKD overwhelmingly, reflecting concerns over the NPP’s policy towards their political demands. In fact, in this election, the complete implementation of the 13th Amendment was unclear. Sajith’s offer to do so, may have contributed to his larger vote bank in the N-E. Ranil proposed the 13th Amendment without the Police powers, while AKD sated that he is committed to conducting Provincial Elections (last held in 2013) but has urged the introduction of a new Constitution.

Generally, many Muslim areas in the South also opted to vote for AKD this time yearning for change, although both Ranil and Sajith gained in NE areas. Muslims felt being marginalised and victimised consequent to the well-orchestrated Islamophobia campaign launched by vested political interest groups with patron saints in the government. The Islamophobia campaign gained more tempo specially during the Rajapakse regimes and also in the Post Easter attack period. The community also felt being left out of the political process too, especially during and after the Tiger led war which ended in 2009. The challenge for AKD government will be to address their genuine concerns too. Specially the Gota government with their extreme majoritarian and Sinhala supremacist approach alienated the minorities.

The UN Human Rights Commissioner has also urged the new government to pursue an inclusive national vision for Sri Lanka that addresses the root causes of the ethnic conflict. Its report stated, “the government should undertake the fundamental constitutional and institutional reforms needed to strengthen democracy and the devolution of political authority and to advance accountability and reconciliation.”.

The road to recovery is not a cake walk; experts feel it’s laden with grave challenges. Grassroots human rights defenders confront a challenging environment marked by human rights concerns and violations. The arbitrary use of emergency laws, and restrictions proposed for social media suppression remain a significant problem. Post war reconciliation also remains fragile with unresolved issues related to accountability, justice and discrimination against minorities. Rising nationalism, land disputes, displacement, human rights violations and militarisation contributed to tensions and persecution of grassroots activists. Amid those challenges, AKD remains likely the last hope for Sri Lanka! God bless  his mission for good governance and a beautiful country !