19 September, 2019

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Mobilising To Meet The Menace Of A Post-Election Dictatorship; Advent Of People’s Power: A New Dynamic

By Kumar David

Prof. Kumar David

My theme today is the significance of the national People’s Power (PP) movement launched on 18 August at a rally where it also named a presidential candidate. But first let me entertain you to a numbers game. In January 2015 MS polled 51.3% to MR’s 47.7% and 1% to Others. The JVP in 2015 (parliamentary) and 2018 (LG) polled about 6.5% (see charts). It did not contest the presidency in Jan 2015 and worked flat out for MS. Had it contested and had it taken away just 1.3% of MS’s vote, the decision would have gone to a second-preference count. A close call; but it gets more interesting. Had it pulled 3.6% of MS’s vote (recall that its usual poll is 6.5%) Sirisena’s first-preferences would have fallen below Mahinda’s. Wow! Furthermore, had many JVPers abstained from marking MS as their second-preference, the party is notorious for its derring-do sectarianism, Percy Mahinda Rajapaksa would have been elected President of Sri Lanka for a third-term. Think of it!

Your Sunday morning arithmetic lesson is not over. It is pretty certain the count will go to second-preferences this time. The JVP has gained popularity and the PP alliance may, for arguments sake, poll 10%. This means that either Gota or the DNFer, to clear 50%, will have to press the rival below 40%. That’s not possible; the gap is too wide.  Depending on how the 90% splits (47:43, 46:44 45:45) both will then hang on every hair of a PP beard. Since PP is strongly anti-Gota the portion that does not abstain from marking a second-preference will decide the outcome. Are you still with me? A+ for arithmetic.

Anura Kumara Dissanayake speaking at Galle Face rally | Photo credit Anura’s Facebook

Ok have a sip of Sunday morning coffee, let’s move on to my substantive topic; the post presidential election period could be dangerous for democracy. I mean the possible election of Gota as president, but I do not consider a Sajith presidency as free of apprehension. The difference is that Sajith does not have marauding racists, extremist monks and military brass, all hounds of hell baying to be unleashed, waiting in the wings. Sajith like Gota is bereft of an economic plan, he is empty headed on devolution and minority issues and is opposed of the 20-th Amendment (repeal executive presidency). In sum, since he will be unable to move beyond limits that have crippled this government, a Sajith regime too will, over time, descend to the use of state power in autocratic ways. But I grant, imminent peril and future threats are not the same.    

General Election 2015: Chart by TK Research & Solutions

Therefore, there are two important concerns: To foil a Gota presidency, and to prepare and mobilise mass and social movements to fight autocratic trends whoever becomes president. Although this is the chronological order in which these tasks will be posed the second is long-term and more significant. To reach these twin objectives it is necessary to strengthen the 30 organisation People’s Power alliance, the third-force that is now coalescing. More important is what PP does. Sure, the JVP would like to promote the candidacy of Anura Kumara; the other 29 while pulling their weight in this respect must also have wider objectives. Programmes and strategies have to be evolved via discourses where no one dominates others. They have to be finalised urgently and publicised soon.

I marched in the United Left 1963 May Day demo and was at its Galle Face meeting chaired by NM, Dr Wicks and Philip. I was also on a side-stage with a good overview at Sunday’s (18th) PP Galle Face rally. PP drew about 150,000 and was comparable in size to the 1963 May Day. More than 40 years after the 1977 election debacle destroyed the left, a radical left-democratic alternative has been born. It is an alliance of 30 self-thinking entities committed to mobilising a people’s movement untainted by corruption as an alternative to the two big parties. Things are on the move; a framework has been erected and a programme outlined. Globally this is the age of the third-force, the day of the “alternative”. PP now enters the stage of fleshing out its programme and coordinating strategies.  

Local Government Election February 2018 (JVP 6.5%)

Last week’s column promoted a concerted effort to vote first-preference for the third-option and second-preference against Gota – that is in favour of the DNF candidate, be it Ranil, Sajith or Karu. It elicited hot reactions both for and against from anti and pro Gota camps. Some saw it as an excellent way of expressing dissent with the racist-reactionary Rajapaksas and failed yahapalana and promoting a third option while at the same time foiling Gota. Others feared it would be self-defeating. 

I don’t get the point of those who fear that some who vote PP may neglect to cast a second-preference anti-Gota vote. It is true that there are world-is-their-oyster sectarians who may give first-preference to PP and refrain from a second choice, but such people are not going to vote for a DNFer, come what may. So, the DNF loses nothing by my first-for-PP, second-against-Gota tactic. It may actually gain.  Cohorts of people are fed-up with both main parties. A refrain I often hear is “I’m not going to vote for either bastard”. These are PP targets; potential third-force voters. It is similar all over the world; France, Italy, UK and paradoxically even the Trump Base is fed-up with the rotten system. Support for an alternative comes from all who have lost faith in the “game”. It is global and is visible in Lanka (“ung okoma horu”). My conjecture that PP will poll high is influenced by this. Some may never go to the polls but for PP; they may bestow a scornful second-preference on the DNF. There is no reason to fear that my proposal will weaken an anti-Gota aggregation. The opposite is likely.   

An important reason for forging PP is to sponsor a radical left-democratic identity; the gains made since 8 January 2015 are under threat. If MR had not been defeated, we would be living with no presidential term limits – a practise dictators long for. White-vans plying their trade, assassinations galore, political opponents careful not to sleep in the same place two nights in a row, Tamils and Muslims terrorised by the State, no oversight committees and commissions, Chief Justices treated like road-tarts, UPFA MPs like lick-spittle stooges; I could go on for another page. This has all ended, but the peril is that it may all return if Gota rides again. This is why foiling Gota is crucial. 

Liberals, leftists and civil society took the lead in the January 8 victory and in promoting democratic, legislative and constitutional advances. That road achieved much, but it has reached its limit. Where further can an alliance with the UNP go? In economic orientation, devolution of power, constitutional advance and anti-corruption measures, it has reached its bound. It is time to make a conceptual and practical leap and strike out anew. Trade Unions, NGOs, the ULF, NSSP, post-Shan Left and all manner of progressives sang the praises of left unity all these years. Now when the real thing arrives in a practical form, warts and all, some who sang this chorus cringe in an un-Leninist funk. One thing about the great Bolshevik was his prescience and boldness of decisions making when circumstances demanded it. Remember the April Thesis?

In the Gota movement we have the convergence of a notorious personal authoritarian, a racially fired-up petty-bourgeoisie, Moor hating-and-baiting bigots in saffron robes, business lobbies with narrow nationalist and personal agendas, and retired and serving military brass smarting to stamp their cache on state-power. A dangerous nexus whose progression entails reversal of democratic gains made since January 2015. But my ‘voting logic’ also applies to eventual Gota voters who want to register dissent before marking support for their champion. It is in the interests of everyone to register dissent with the SLPP/SLFP and the UNP before giving an undeserved extension of life to either. Who will say “Don’t give both scoundrels a well-deserved thrashing?” No one! It would be a mistake, whether you are SLPP/SLFP or UNP, not to show dissent before you choose your side. 

Whichever side you are at this moment, look 5-10 years ahead; we must get back to basics and renew uncorrupted roots. The maturing of People’s Power will be conditioned by the impact of all 30 members (for now, more soon) on and within it. PP is now at a crucial stage detailing development strategy, democracy, devolution and unification of communities and decency in public life. This is the most important element in the emerging dynamic; the forging of a movement for significant social change. Let’s say what needs to be done and what can be done; people don’t expect the moon. Let’s get on with the job!

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Latest comments

  • 2
    2

    Donno Kumar. Using Communists to prop up the Capitalists is so very sneaky. But come to think of it, the 2nd preference Communist vote could support either side – one strictly nationalistic; the other for federalism into 3 countries; the nationalist is of the 71% & the federalist is of the 29%.
    *
    Oh! You mean in the 2nd preferential vote, JVP will go 100% to UNP? Not fair. Bad democracy! The JVP 2nd preferential vote should also be looked at. For example, if out of 10% JVP votes, 71% of the total 10% JVP votes choose Gota, then these votes should go towards Gota (71% of 10 = 7.1%).
    *
    Of course if the Commies get 51% in the first round itself, that will be pure and noble.

    • 3
      1

      Election season has started early to distract form the US and Saudi owned IS attacks inquiry and the foriegn hands involved and from the MCC project to land grab that is gathering steam and this time.

      JVP has been very disappointing when it comes to educating the people about the US project to turn Lanka into a military base and land grab, and the need to hold corrupt Muslim MPs who are the US cats paw in the MCC land-grab project accountable. The result is that innocent Muslims are being attacked by Buddhist fundamentalists and the US project to weaponize ethnic and religious identity politics in Sri Lanka and get SOFA signed continues

      • 1
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        CT is now promoting JVP!

        😁

    • 13
      0

      Prof Kumar David,

      Thanks for your article. Do the voters, mean measured IQ 79, understand this? Let’s assume that they fully understand the significance of the second preference vote.During 2015 about 55 percent of the Sinhala Buddhists voted for Mahinda Rajapaksa for nationalist reasons of defeating LTTE .

      Let us assume that the JVP, second preference followers this. Then, for Sinhala Buddhists who voted for JVP, the second preference for Gota is 0.7×0.55 x10 , or 3.75 percent. On the other hand JVP supported Sirisena, and Gota May get only 25 percent of the Sinhala Buddhist nationalistic second presence vote.

      Given this scenario , it becomes critical to get UNP/UNP candidate to be the second preference to stop Gota and the Rajapaksa Mafia.

      The problem to be solved is voter education. This should be undertaken by JVP.

      Tag lines::

      Stop the Rajapaksa Mafia.
      Stop the Rajapaksasa Corruption.
      Stop the Dictatorship.
      Stop the white vans..

      • 0
        8

        Amarasiri,
        *
        55% is probably up to 65% by now (after the UNP antics for the past 4 years). Anyway a 3.75% should be enough to do the trick for Gota.
        *
        But for true Democracy, JVP cannot be placed in 2nd tier voting. Voting should be three ways at first tier: SLPP-UNP-JVP @ 33.333% , after of which 2nd – tier votes are counted to make the 51% majority. Big ruse by major oligarchic parties actually to control the struggling Masses!
        *
        JVP People-Power (Third-Force) must rise up to demand their voting rights). Otherwise it is the struggling Masses perpetually propping up the Oligarchic forces (of which the Oligarchic forces will allow them a free hand in university ragging-torture as appeasement).

      • 0
        0

        Haha!!!
        You will be surpliced when results come. You will have to leave country. But I think by judging your comments, you are living in first world country, ultra royal or a NGO kakka.

    • 7
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      Ms Fernando I am unable to follow your numbers. Peoples’ Power and the JVP is strongly anti-Gota and canvassing heavily against him. So I would be surprised if even a small portion of the PP second-preference vote (its Sinhala-Buddhist vote) went to Goth.

      What may happen is that due to sectarianism (for which we “Commies” are notorious) quite a bit of PP voters may abstain from casting a second-preference altogether.

      Oh it would be heavenly if we “Commies” got 51% in the first round; but we are living on earth not heaven – too bad Miss..

      • 2
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        Prof. David.
        *
        71% Sinhala Buddhist vote will certainly not favor the Ranil separatist policy, however much they are anit-Gota (even Sajith and others won’t be trusted after aligning with Ranil).
        *
        But for Democracy is to be fulfilled in our land, voting should be three ways at first tier: SLPP-UNP-JVP @ 33.333% , after of which 2nd – tier votes are counted to make the 51% majority. Rise up and demand that right (instead of being relegated to ragging-torture in universities as appeasement) !

  • 6
    0

    There can be no doubt if Preferential Voting, if understood by the voters, will increase the turn out of voters, which is always high in Sri Lanka. The question is who going to inform the voters, most of whom have short attention spans.
    .
    As Prof David says, the UNP stands to lose nothing if voters opt to use Preferential Voting; many may relish the chance to actually reduce them to below 50%, and then have them elected, and so, instead of being indifferent to the entire elections, they may trudge to the polling booths. Once there, such voters may get confirmation by reading the official posters But even for that we must get them curious to find out about it. The JVP cannot possibly talk about actually casting a ballot for a capitalist party. Their core supporters may actually leave the party.
    ,
    There is something of a risk that such a UNP announcement may make people conclude that the Party is losing, and our voters are notorious for casting ballots for those seen to be losing.
    .
    Until such time as the full line-up of candidates is known, we can’t treat these discussions as anything more than lessons, so I’m not surprised that Prof. David, has left out consideration of the Nagananda-Rohan Pallewatte bonding. Clearly, this team has now got to be taken a little more seriously. An interesting aside could be that Rohan Pallewatte’s grandfather and Maithripala Sirisena’s father had been brothers. I don’t think that it will make a difference.

  • 5
    2

    Nice one for Sunday Morning …

    Why do you have to stress about forming a new one, Dr Kumar, when there is already a big one.
    Just enjoy the Coffee Mate.

    TNA which did that for over 40 years with the last 30 being the best..
    And Its Leader threatened to take up arms again, even as late as last month..

    JVP has done it twice , Both big time .
    And they did it even the last four years to keep the masses quiet, , while Dr Ranil and his UNP ripped the guts of the Country and degraded Buddhism , Buddhist Monks and even jailed them.
    -.
    And they now have the latest lot, who destroyed the Catholic Icons in Batticolao, Negambo and Kochchikade.

    Isn’t this already a formidable Alliance?.
    -.
    Add the US Ambassador, UK High Commissioner, and the Norwegian and French and EU consuls ,it will be like Hercules on Steroids.

    I feel sorry for lilliput Nandasena..
    Just imagine the state of Nandasena when this lot fronts up to him even in the Presidential Palace?.
    Nandasena will have to wear Sanitary Pads specially after his By Pass..

    • 4
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      KASmaalam K.A. Sumanasekera

      “TNA which did that for over 40 years with the last 30 being the best..”

      It’s not entirely true.
      You forgot in 2005 your Thamby Thruvengadam Vellupillai Prabaharan won the elections for Mahinda and his clan, by rigging/fixing the elections, for a fee. How could you lie.

      Go have your own brew on Sunday.

    • 4
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      KASmaalam K.A. Sumanasekera

      Please clarify:

      How the LTTE intelligence chief Pottu Amman (Shanmugalingam Sivashankar ), twin brother Sisira Mendis is going to help Gota win the forthcoming presidential elections?
      Is he going to help Gota’s goons unearth second world war arms, munitions throughout the island, discover buried unexploded bombs near Dalada Maligawa, Kathiragama, Madu, …. , and plot to kill Gota and his mate Douglas, close to the elections?

    • 1
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      Dear Readers,
      .
      A correction; this is what I have written:
      .
      “our voters are notorious for casting ballots for those seen to be losing.”
      .
      This is what I meant:
      .
      “our voters are notorious for casting ballots for those seen to be winning.” That was written at 3.00 a.m.
      .
      One or two other typos that don’t really matter.
      .
      With so much unknown, Professor David has decided to ” entertain [us] to a numbers game.” That’s as honest as honest can be. However, this man is an electrical engineer. “Electricity” is something about electrons flowing from place to place depending on “Potential Difference”. Now he has said, that despite his life-long devotion to the writings of Karl Marx that he just doesn’t know what to say about politics on this Sunday morning. That is being honest: saying that one “doesn’t know” what is what at this moment.
      .
      Even “K.A. Sumanasekera” whom “we love to hate” has joined in the fun. At this moment nobody knows where we stand. Perhaps, two weeks from now, we will know, and then can start the serious arguments. Meanwhile, Prof. David is trying to “educate” us. He doesn’t seem to understand what highly educated people we Sri Lankans are.
      .
      Another problem for us is that this man who should concentrate on fixing wires so that electricity is able to flow from one point to another, writes such high faluting English that we don’t understand all that he writes. How a Marxist fellow in Sri Lanka ever learnt so much of English, World Literature, Philosophy, and much else is a mystery.
      .
      Sumaney, tell us if you feel that the “UK High Commissioner” has planted this man in Sri Lanka. You end up insulting a guy named “Nandasena” who we thought was his hero.
      .
      All is topsy turvy. However, most of the intelligent people are telling the truth for today – that we just don’t know.

      • 0
        0

        Right at the bottom of this comment, a typo:
        .
        I have said, ‘Sumaney, . . . You end up insulting a guy named “Nandasena” who we thought was his hero.’
        .
        Please read that as:
        .
        Sumaney, . . . You end up insulting a guy named “Nandasena” who we thought was your hero.’
        .
        There was a time when I thought that Sumaney was a paid employee of the Rajapaksa family. I now begin to see him also as a puzzled man.

        • 0
          0

          Sinhala Man…

          You will never vote for Nandasena…..

          Who is it this time?..
          Keselwatta Kid whom your mates say hasn’t even OL.

          JVP Prince Anura whom Dr Ranil bought for 25 Laks LRK aka Yahapalana Ruppiah of course ,which is worth next to nothing.

          Or is it Dr Ranil again with his new found Wahabi Clan which has been added to the same old Elite , Anglican and the Vellala Clans?..

  • 3
    2

    The important thing here is Voter Percentage for TNA and that of JVP. TNA only with 3,.53% Voter percentage has 16 seats. JVP with 6.25% voter percentage has only six seats including the National List Seat. In sinhale, Majority is being oppressed and suppressed in every way possible. IT is a hybrd war to subjugate the Majority and destroy Sri lanka. any presidents that Sri lanka elects should take that important point into account. I think since 1933 or 1940s, Sri lanka is a targeted country. Now that work is fruiting. The on coming Presidential and General election or elections will decide whether Sri lanka survives or become a failed States. either of Executive Prime minister or Executive presidency need to be abolished. But, one of those should be ELECTED by an ISLAND WIDE VOTE and not by the parliamentarians who are very corrupt and can be bought. Executive PReident also has a Private fund which is used for the parliament’s personal usage. No one is attaching the financial and Monitary issues of Sri lanka to the election. Every one say development but they do not talk the financial situation. Some one mentioned some where, Rating agencies, IMF and WB stc, may gang up after the next general electgion to ban Sri lanka getting Loans and Grants. The reason is Sri Lanka’s financial situation is that desperate and they are not giving it out.
    It is premature to talk about elections. Even UNP has not given their final conclusion whether Sajith is their Presidential candidate or whether Ranil ejejct Sajith and make KAru Jayasuriya the Candidate. How ever, Raajitha and Mangala two of the financially capable minister had said to Sajith that he is msot suitable candidate.

    • 3
      2

      Yes, it is seen that the JVP is always underrepresented in the electoral votes. Guess the TNA and SLMC votes need to get greater parity to balance out minority disadvantage. Yet for JVP to be compressed to 6 electoral seats is too wrong. If over 50 % of the polity vote for them, will they will get scrunched into 10% or less?
      *
      The main thing is that we can’t just have 2 main candidates, placing the vast population of JVP votes in 2nd and third tiers. That is not democracy!

      *
      Lankan election system needs to be explained in greater depth and changes to constitution need to be made. I wonder why Professor Kumar just skims the surface of explaining Lankan voting science.
      *
      Lankans need to be rightfully represented. How can it ever be done with those sitting in power forever skewing the system. People-Power (the third force) must mobilize and demand voting changes (instead of falling into itself and torturing university students……and this is allowed by the “main” parties so they can forever keep the Lankan Masses under their control).

  • 1
    1

    I heard some TNA are waiting to join the future govt. They think, what ever happens or what ever talks now, once the election is over, they say it is some kind of United govt and they will appoint so many ministers. Then TNA also can get minister posts.
    The worst part is President goes and say, Treasury has no money to give a raise to all the Police officers. On the other hand, Mangala has either postponed the JULY SALARY INCREASE TO JANUARY NEXT YEAR waiting until the general election comes to give the govt employees. But, Ranil and his UNP is spending billions and billions to help the voter. I think that is like YahapalanaThere is a talk that They are already has begun to use $ 480 million grant for election santhosams to the voter But, they include it in different expense columns without saying where the money came from. So, the next govt will be in trouble. So, Sajith and probably Maithripala too have to consider those. Who ever comes, they are done.
    Sri lanka has been screwed up by 15th amendment. right now, the Majority is very weak. they are only seen and heard. that happens every where in Sri lanka. so, Any new president has to give some clues about that. That is all foreign plans that our dumb politicians went ahead with.

  • 9
    0

    Why does Sri Lanka need a President AND a Prime Minister?
    We did Very Well with only a Prime Minister and Royalty in another Country!

    • 1
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      The Problem is the Rajapakses have this Fixation that they are Royalty, and want to be treated like the Kings and Queens of Britain! And it is All because the Word ‘Raja’ appears in their Surname!

  • 2
    2

    We are going to end up repeating what we wrote in2014-2015. We have not seen any change from any party, from 1948, including JVP. Our writing will be uninteresting and boring for few, as the basic material will remain same, though some name and places may change.
    I think most of reply for this essay has been posted on Prof. Kumar’s earlier essay. Lankawe’s political problem is worm crawling old, old wound. Don Stephen invented how to destroy economy and country’s sovereignty meddling by the international trade, Estate Industry and transporting those workers forcefully to India. This was the first issue made Nehru think of bringing Lankawe under India. Don did his best to wake up sleeping lion. Then Chandrika used Kathirgamar to bring the remaining world powers and gave it on the hand of a Monkey, the Old King. We don’t have to describe the current situation. But inserting into this the “revival of Left dream”, especially in this election is misled, misplaced or unrequited (or whatever the right word for it) desire.
    There is no question from 1948 the Duo UNP-SLFP (daughter Slap Party) have been destroying the country. But JVP is not the solution for that. We cannot agree if patient has diarrhea one just give stomach pain medicine to the patient & say medicine is given. This only makes the disease ore severe. There is not any difference in JVP from the two main parties to claim that it can do it. JVP is just a replica of any other Sinhala Buddhist Chauvinist parties, additionally, draped in communist red dyed shirts. Pampering JVP here is like nurturing banana plant in marshland. Chakadaththar Anura Kumara can try to mount of the horse all others (NM, Colvin, Peter….) have already tried, but the fall is guaranteed. Communism has no future in Lankawe or Tamil Eelam. The Lankawe economy is at worst after all kinds of test carried by looters, called parliamentarians & ministers. . Now time to follow the counties developed, instead of unrequited desires.

  • 0
    3

    The fact that current JVP leaders have not had their share in the lootings, does not means they are in anyway different from any other Sinhala Buddhist politicians. In 2006, to bring death to Ranil, they supported Old Kings Budget and brought death to them. Absolute eccentric Modayas!
    Immediately after the regime change took place, we named the Yahapalanaya as New Royal government. It would be absurd for somebody to think that we had a happenstance, but in reality we had sure footedly predicted where the Yahapalanaya would go. In 2015, Tamils said that New King was war criminal. But all Sinhalese, including the SLFPyers (Old King faction) of that time believed and proclaimed he was an honest, polite & dependable politician.
    Ranil was generally known as Mr. Clean, until 2015. But Tamils have named him 21st century fox. Immediately after government changed, he started by leading the CB looting. He engineer a system of every government official’s safely escapes from all murders and corruption – “Ranil the emperor of impunity”. Sinhala Buddhist leaders just don’t do a crime and vanish, but they create sellouts, to take the crime on their behalf.
    Leaving those alone, who want to vote UNP, and ask those, who want to vote for JVP to vote UNP could be a method to save UNP. But campaigning to vote for JVP and give the 2nd preference to UNP is formulae make Old Brother Prince to win the election. Remember, JVP will never add Ranil within its campaign.
    So whoever dissatisfied with ruling party UNP will be voting to Old Brother Prince as the 2nd preference. That is the reality. Further, Lankawe has natural dictator minded rulers. So, one don’t need catalyst Communism to make it shine from them.

  • 4
    0

    Profesuri
    In simple words, are you saying vote for PPM I.e AKD and caste the second preference to DNF candidate

  • 4
    0

    Well done News 1st ..
    expose , expose ..
    you are doing a fanastic job
    Thank you

  • 1
    0

    Interesting article but what are these “basics” we have get back on? Are these same as the ones (but almost obsolete now) of the ULF of the ’60s? Times have changed as evident from the policies of Russia, China and even Cuba. We are facing a grave economic crisis. Even though it is difficult we have to evolve a viable short and medium term development plan for the country. Apart from political statements like eliminating corruption & nepotism, establishing democracy and rule of law we do not see or hear specific proposals to improve our economy. The days when politicians mis-led people with election manifestos are over. Let them come out with new ideas and concrete proposals.

    • 1
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      A retired government servant: Economy and Rule of Law are directly linked. You can’t have economic progress when the system of administration is marooned in corruption & nepotism.

  • 0
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    This comment was removed by a moderator because it didn’t abide by our Comment policy.For more detail see our Comment policy https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/comments-policy-2

  • 6
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    Sri Lanka is not going reform its politics, corruption, ethnic problem, transitional justice etc without international action. If Gota and SLPP come to power the IC will intervene. Tamils in the North and East understand this dynamics and may vote accordingly. Tamils will suffer again but their long term solution is in the intervention of the IC. Election voting mechanization strategies is like Panadol for headaches. It does not cure cancer.

    • 2
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      N. Ethirveerasingam, However much I wish that I should not disagree with you, I am unable to.
      .
      International action is a mirage; it keeps receding as you approach it!
      .
      If IC want to intervene it could do it even today.
      .
      There is no IC intervention feasible in Sri Lanka; India is our IC, whether we like it or not!

      • 2
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        Thappu. Regrettably you are right.

        • 2
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          IC cannot intervene in Sri Lanka without the approval of India, and India does not want anyone to do so as it treats Sri Lanka as its backyard. However much Sinhala racists shout aloud that they are a sovereign nation, the fact is that Sri Lanka’s sovereignty is directly linked to India’s security concerns. In 1987 there was a threat to India’s security and they intervened, but foolish and selfish Prabaharan had squandered the opportunity of joining hands with India and getting the rights. Now again the security of India is threatened firstly by the presence of China physically at Hambantota for the next 99 years, and secondly by Islamic terrorism which has been exposed as that funded and nurtured by successive governments. If Mahinda brought in China and placed Sri Lanka on a debt trap, this regime is guilty of selling lands to China. However much Sri Lanka assures India that it will be only for economic and not military purposes, India will not accept it. Sri Lanka has blundered by getting China in, and though the present regime assured that they will get rid of China, it did not happen and India is not willing to trust them anymore. This is a sure sign for disaster as evidenced by Easter bombings, where one of the foreign player is involved. (Contd)

        • 2
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          Second factor is worse for India as Sri Lankan Islamic terrorists trained in Sri Lanka have been caught in India having crossed over from Sri Lanka. With government not taking action and top Sinhala politicians on both sides wanting to cover up, Muslim politicians, businessmen and professionals connected with Islamic terror are being allowed to walk free. Unfortunately for Sri Lanka Muslim terrorists caught in India are spilling the beans about what is happening. It is naive to expect India too wait helplessly when Chinese and Pakistani intelligence agencies are active in Sri Lanka. For all these reasons, India has to intervene decisively. It is up to the Tamil leadership to act wisely in this situation. The invitation by India to TNA for discussion is a good sign, especially when request by Gota for an appointment with Modi has received a cold shoulder. During his last visit Modi clearly told Sri Lanka to implement 13th amendment fully and go beyond for which none of these so called veerayas opened their mouths as they know that BJP means business and cannot be fooled like inept Congress. With successful tackling of Kashmir by forming a Buddhist majority state and a Hindu majority state side by side as union territories, their solution to Sri Lanka is the formation of a Hindu majority state and a Buddhist majority state side by side as union territories. They have to empower Tamils to keep Sinhala treachery as well as Islamic terror under control, and stamp their authority as a regional power..

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            Indian authorities described the five Sri Lankan Muslims who were caught in Tamil Nadu with a Pakistani national , pretending to be Hindus, as Tamil Muslims from Sri Lanka and not as Moors or any other fancy name , that these lying fake Arabs Indian origin converted Tamil Dravidians, love to give themselves. Every one else knows the true origin and history of these so called Sri Lankan Moors and Sinhalese, who go around claiming to be of Arab and Aryan descent respectively. . The Arabs have stated the Sri Lankan Muslims are hardly of Arab descent but largely descended from South Asian coverts to Islam. Meaning Tamil Hindus who converted to Islam . Now a very senior BJP official had openly stated that Sri Lanka that pre Buddhist Sri Lanka was originally Saivite and Dravidian ( meaning Tamil or Semi Tamil ) and the original converts to Buddhism were all Saivite Dravidian people. He also stated that Sri Lanka has two indigenous people one Tamil Saivites from the north and east and the Sinhalese speaking Buddhist in the rest of the island and only these two people have a right to claim for homelands in the island and the rights of these two people should be protected and given equal status in their respective homelands. Meaning these fake Arab Tamil Dravidian Islamic immigrants from South India have no claim, despite jumping up and down and trying to steal the Tamil east with Sinhalese help. This message was conveyed to the Rajapussys. when they were jumping up and down about Kashmir article 370 and how it can be used to marginalise the island’s Tamils.

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              There is a dangerous trend developing in Sri Lanka where the government is aiding abetting China and Pakistan to destabilize India. These Muslim terrorists could not have obtained false passports under Hindu names without connivance of the government authorities. Sri Lanka is playing a double game of pretending to be a friend of India promising several but not delivering any. Whether granting of strategic real estate to counter China, or signing of economic or political agreements, Sri Lanka is deliberately dragging its feet. If Sri Lanka thinks that it can continue to hoodwink India, quoting Chinese bogey, then they are in for a rude shock very soon. Unless the next president takes stock and corrects this to allay Indian security concerns, this time it will not be parippu drop in Jaffna, but kavung drop in Colombo.

            • 0
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              Exactly.

              BJP is not extreme to the extent of going back to the history.

              BJP’s approach is to correct path of history, taking into acount of current circumstances.

              This is also the reason the supposed referundum for merging East with North has become obsolete.

              In addtion, Tamil rule in Tamil homeland is a must Hindia’s security. This is perhaps most overriding reason than history.

              We now see, except for Tamil Eezham, Hindia’s stand on the Eezhalam Tamils’ claim to rule their homeland is dependent on political forces than policy i.e. Congress or BJP.

              Shiv Shankar Menon directly said Eezham Tamils are not only indigenous but also migrants.

              At the same time, Congress, who have brought this precarious stitution on Hindia itself, is being slowly destroyed. Jamu-Kashmir done and dusted and BJP’s stature has semi-permanently grown in Nothern states, Chithambaram arrested on corruption charges, and I will not be surprised if Kerala Namboothiris and Mafia are some how hooked for their corruption with Sinhalese and Chinese for bringing in China to the South.

              Chithambaram’s assets.

              https://www.facebook.com/nagaraj.uththaman.9/videos/898728633836457/

              The news in Malayalam but mostly self explanatory to Tamils.

              Unless most of these are ancestral assets, Chithambaram’s corruption is obvious.

              Incidentally, Chisthambaram has assets in Sori Sinhala Lanka.

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  • 6
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    Sri Lanka is like a car stuck in a round-about with the driver unable to decide which way to go: Driver takes the car some distance one way and comes back to the round-about and gets stuck again.

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      Yes Thiru. Describes Tamil’s politics too.

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        This time 30% of tamils will be voting for Nandasena. Then what you Dr./Pr.s pundits going to do?

  • 3
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    Sinhala voters should be vigilant on the attempt by Jathiya Vinshakarana Peramuna’s attempt to take you for a ride. Think carefully whose agenda that they are trying to implement. In 2015, a large number of civil society organizations with the leadership of Ven. Sobhitha backed President Sirisena to oust Rajapakse regime and bring UNP under the leadership of Ranil with the slogan ‘Yahapalanaya’. Even UNP politicians now accept that a large majority of civil society people who backed ‘Yahapalana’ Government are disillusioned about the performances of ‘Yahapalana’ Government. The ‘Bond Scam’ had a significant negative impact on ‘Yahapalana’ Government. If there is a two-way contest between UNP led ‘Peramuna’ and SLPP led ‘Peramuna’ there is a high probability that those who are disillusioned with the ‘Yahapalana’ Government mainly on national security issue emerged after the terrorist attack will lean towards SLPP led ‘Peramuna’. The only way to prevent this happening at least to a certain extent is for JVP to come as a third force and attract those voters who might vote to SLPP led ‘Peramuna’. If that can be done with Anura, Ranil might be thinking that UNP candidate might stand a chance with the support of minorities.
    Until few months ago, Anura did everything to save Ranil. JVP brought the No Confidence Motion against the Government to save Rishad and give oxygen to the Government. Then suddenly the tune changed and came out with the slogan ‘This Government Must Go’ probably after he was nominated by Ranil as the ‘Third Force Candidate’ assuring necessary financial support.

    Sinhala voters, don’t let JVP or NGOs who want to keep Don Juan Dhramapala’s (Reincarnated) regime in power to fool you again.

    • 1
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      Hope your Thamizh wife and children are very vigilant about you and are aware of your racist rantings here. Most probably not , otherwise you will not be fed, washed and your diapers changed.

  • 3
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    There is a well-planned attempt to discourage floating voters from voting by saying ‘Unuth Horu Munuth Horu’ and no point in voting.

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      If that is what they are saying, Educate them, for God’s sake!
      .
      That is what Prof. David, and so many others are trying to do.
      .
      Are you doing that, Eagle Eye?
      .
      Dear EE, please don’t take this as me trying to call you names. This isn’t merely an ad hominem. Is it not correct to say that you thrive on half-truths, innuendo, and downright lies. Have you been explaining to anybody about the Preferential Voting System?
      .
      Ever since it was introduced in 1982, I’ve been using my preferences, except in 2015. I have also been telling people about it, but admittedly, I’ve been making more of an effort this year.
      .
      This is what you have written.
      .

      Sinhala voters, don’t let JVP or NGOs who want to keep Don Juan Dhramapala’s (Reincarnated) regime in power to fool you again.
      .
      Is that comment designed to help people think, or is it not an attempt at obscurantism?
      .
      A response would be greatly appreciated, dear EE.

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        Please ignore Eagle rant. Every time his Thamizh wife forgets to feed him, wash him and change is nappies , he starts to rant. It looks like it is happening often. Western Countries provide free care for the old and disabled , where state paid carers visit them once or twice a week , or more depending on the need and also Meals on wheels service . Eagle Rant should apply for these. Most probably already using these facilities. Googled and checked there is a meals on wheels service in Melbourne , from where this Blind or Bald or Blind and Bald Eagle rants.

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          Dear Pandi Kutti,
          .
          Although EE has not responded, I think that you have explained it coherently.

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    General feeling is to get rid of 1+225 and it includes Anuta Kumara and his team. All these political parties are to continue with the present system. 1+225 are the failures of a failed system. After 71 years or especially after 1978, we should have learnt our lesson. We now need a System Changer and JVP must be knowledgeable enough to support that change.

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    Guru, People Power and all that is OK. I will bet Rs 10,000 with you, whatever happens, this man is not going to win. He looks, gesture and talks like an all knowing Pundit. But he is an idiot stuck in the mud of self grandeur.
    .

    PP with someone like Handuneththi, Vijitha or even Nalinda would have had a better chance. Just think, can we allow this man to go as the President of Sri Lanka to any foreign country? I would die with shame if that happens. Thank God that 4-fold Devas are in charge still protecting the Dhammadvipa.
    .
    In the Gota movement we have the convergence of a notorious personal authoritarian, a racially fired-up petty-bourgeoisie, Moor hating-and-baiting bigots in saffron robes, …..
    .
    Just for that ignorant insult to the Sangha, I am going to vote for Gota, come what may.
    .

    That is clever, of you. That is the kind of response you wanted generate in the Sinhala Buddhist floating vote. Being a failed Leftist after trying for over 5 decades, you don’t want a new leftist to come to power. Good thinking. Good strategy. I am with you there.

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    Dear Political Science Guru,

    This is a day dreaming article with full of fantasy thinking.

    Before you write this kind of fantasy articles, go and meet the ordinary people on the streets and talk to them. I think that you were working for the University of Colombo. At least talk to your students.

    People are fed up with the current useless Yahapalanaya administration except people like you. We will support an strong leader to become a President of Sri Lanka. Not a puppet controlled by the West. I feel sorry for your mathematics. Sri Lankan people are educated and not as you think.

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    The next govt should be with President Maitrhipala sirisena and the Prime minster Sajith Pemadasa. They should promise during their term, they will restructure the parliament to get rid of corruption system and 13th amendment should be abolished.Cabinet should be less than 20 ministers and deputy ministers can not be politicians. They should be experts in the corresponding subject. Parliament doe snot need 225 It should be limited to a maximum of 50 – 75. some Local councils should be amalgamated and politics should be taken out from local councils.

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    Kumar David,
    You are raising two different issues: Winning predictions & the nature of the rule.
    Looks like your prediction are bases on Feb, 2018 local election spread. This analysis is based on two erroneous assumptions: 1. Local election results will be repeated in presidential & general elections held in nearly two years later. First of all, voting in local elections has very little to do with national political trends b’cos in local elections, voting preferences are decided largely by local social relations. I personally saw many UNP loyalists who would overwhelmingly support Sajith, voted against the party. Besides, it is still unclear what the SLFP & Kumara Welgama would do against GoRa.

    2. The unrealistic expectation of 0.6 million would increase to 6.0 millions – a ten fold increase! For this to happen, there should be a huge erosion of voter base from both UNP & SLPP which is extremely unlikely. Instead, realistic expectation should to Sajith attracting votes from SLPP & NPPM. This is not my personal bias; this what I see at the grass-root level.

    Even though it appears that GoRa is trying his best to have very disciplined election campaign, post-election violence will be reality, at least for a couple of days, if he wins. That is b’cos there is an angry mob including PS members & SLPP supporting union leaders out there due to loss of source of income from various corrupt means. As for the question of long term potentials for autocratic rule, there is very high probability that GoRa would be tempted to follow such a path; for, a highly restricted disciplinary path must walk a tight rope. Same will be true for JVP led NPPM b’cos their well defined agenda never will have room for deviations arise by contingencies. As a matter fact, history has shown that Marxist tend to view such contingent public demands as reactionary movements to derail socialist agendas. Unbearable bureaucracies leading to autocracies has been the inevitable outcome.

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    It looks from the writings on the wall, in simple arithmetic Gota’s entry is imminent. Author has forgotten or forgiven the HINDIAN and JANKEE factors GOTA IS SURE TO HAVE.

    WISH THE INNOCENT MINORITY GROUPS BRAZE UP TO FACE A LOOMING AFTERPOLLS HOLOCAUST.

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      If Gota becomes president he will astonish everyone when he cracks down on the BBS and anybody else who threatens the stability he creates.

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        SLMC’s A.L.M. Nazeer has told journalists at Attalachchenai today (August 25) that they are having discussions with Gota. See what I mean? If Gota wins he is not going to allow Gnanasara and his BBS goons to ruin chances of making an impact.

      • 2
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        PBG

        “If Gota becomes president he will astonish everyone when he cracks down on the BBS and anybody else who threatens the stability he creates.”

        Yes of course pigs can fly.
        Thanks for your information.

  • 2
    2

    The performance of the JVP with regard to exposing the truth about the Saudi and US Special Operations Forces (SOF) and role in the Easter Attacks and educating the public on not attacking innocent Muslims but holding accountable Corrupt Muslim MPs who are paid by Saudi to Land Grab and island grab in order to advance the US project of turning Lanka into a military base is very poor. Bathudeen and Hizbulla must be held accountable.

    Let us not fool ourselves that JVPs AKD who has been singing from Bondscam Ranil’s USAID given identity politics and LGBTQ hymn sheet, and JVP has not objected to USAID fake advisors like Prasad Kariyawasm in the Cesspit of corruption the SL parliament is going to be our saviour! JVP has been on the take in the Corruption racket in the parliament which is why they were able to buy so many to be at Galle Face.

    • 1
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      My strong guess is JVP lose big time. JVP thinks voters are Dumb. Who ever comes Srilanka need a president with a very strong backbone. Hitler or Mussolini are the best. If not Putin, Duterte, Fidel Castro, Maduro are OK. Boris Johnson is getting better.

    • 2
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      Don Stanley

      What exactly did AKD expose that is not known to the ordinary people of this island?
      Please list them.

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    Ranil is waiting until either Sajith or Karu Jayasuriya saying, ” OK I contest the presidential election. But, Ranil will be my Prime minister and the party Leader”. With Ranil as the boss, that will not be working. For example, If Sajith comes as the president, he will be working under RANIL. Everybody knows the result. Ranil has to decide. If not some one has to push him out.
    Some where in the newspapers I read, Washington at one time or the other, may ask a seat in the constitutional council. It looks 19th amendment MUST go.

    • 0
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      JD , you are right on the money.
      Old fella still wants to be the Jockey..

      It will be easy to ride the Old Pony.
      But the younger gelding may be bit difficult to control,even if the owners allow the old fella to ride him,,

      • 1
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        KASmaalam K.A. Sumanasekera

        “Old fella still wants to be the Jockey..”

        FYI

        Dr Mahinda was born on 18 November 1945 (age 73 years)

        Dr Ranil was born on 24 March 1949 (age 70 years)
        Dr Gota was born on 20 June 1949 (age 70 years)

        Sajith was born on 12 January 1967 (age 52 years)

        Junius Richard Jayewardene, was born on 17 September 1906
        (retired at the age of 83).
        SiriMao was born on 17 April 1916, active until 2000 (age 84)

        You chose.

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  • 3
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    Scenario 1
    Gota, Sajith, Jvp alliance, national movement and sirisena may also contest.
    Gota may end up in jail just before election or he may loose nominations, if challenged by other parties at election nomination day.

    So contest will be between unp, jvp, sirisena and national movement. Pohottuwa votes may go to sirisena. In that situation sajith will win with a clear margin.

    Scenario 2
    Gota, Sajith, Jvp and np

    Still sajith will with clear margin because gota is a politically weak character. More like srima dissanayake. Nandasena Cannot talk properly ! Too old and mentally unstable, born killer..

    Scenario 3
    Ranil may put karu instead of sajith. So sajith may contest seperately. In that case my3 may support sajiths movement.
    Gota, karu, sajith, jvp and np will be the candidates.
    This may have a close battle but probably still sajith may win..

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    Most People still don’t get it.
    Is it really Gota ?

    If you think so you got it all mixed up and if you think MR is going about unorganized you are wrong again.

    This is his most loved political period of his life.

    This is the first time he is really going to get even , not because he wants to , but people left him with no choice.

    What his opponents do not realise is, he is a fantastic seasoned political strategist , super PR , lot of Charisma .

    He has already counted Gota’s Votes , while UNPERS are at eachothers throat , the man has done his ground work .

    Every single gauranteed vote was counted by teams personally and also the required Minority numbers too set the scale is arranged.

    So I think 99.99% Its going to be The Rajapakshe rule for a long , long time .
    Lets get used to it in our heads .

    The UNP and its allies abused power and betrayed the peoples trust.

    The Moral standards of the nation has completely been destroyed , no one cares about law and order , the Country has turned from a nation that had some moral to open transgression , yes we are not all Saints but we are Sri Lankan, we have a culture and UNP let it degenerate .

    When a people go beyound all limits in their transgression , especially a nation’s religious values are challenged and religion abused by hypocrites and the non religionists tranagress to an extend where the very earth cries.

    Surely you will have a ruler with iron fists and even the very hands that endorsed will pay by with the very hand if that hand endorsed him if they did so with ulterior motives and personal agendas.

  • 5
    2

    The JVP will not get more than 300 to 500, 000 max and even if Sajith runs he will not get anything more than 4 to.4.5 million . Gota has confirmed votes of over 6.5 million .
    how to match that ??
    must be joking

    • 0
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      Alleluia brother. Are you eagerly awaiting the second coming and attending all the messianic meetings and singing out loudly ” He is Lord He is Lord. Every Thamizh and Muslim to perish and wither when he returns, to save our Chingkale oh praise ye Lord.” . Hope your eyes were closed and your face was looking up towards the sky , with a foolish vacuous smile and both your arms were also reaching towards heaven when you sang this praise .

    • 1
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      He is Comming

      Do you think the voters are that stupid to vote for a confirmed Fascist, who has already been blessed by Assgiria?

  • 0
    3

    I don’t get something. Who is going to tell JVP voters to use UNP as their 2nd preference? Is that Professor Kumar? Is that Sinhala_man?
    I understand the crowd surged in Gall Face Green was UNPyers. Anura is sitting in the opposition with the Slap party, against UNP in the parliament. How the Sinhala Buddhist voting for JVP understand when a new call coming, which suggest JVP is in the ruling side? Are those guys also have PhD in math to parse this propaganda material and figures all these out? If JVP add UNP with it, that campaign will bring down JVP’s votes. How do ask a vegetarian (JVPyers) to buy and sell fish (voting to UNP too) in the market? So they will turn away from the market. 2nd is, others who still coming to vote for JVP will not listen this and will vote to Slap party. That will make Old Brother Prince win. So it is going to be double jeopardy.

    Further, there is a chance all EP candidates declare that who is going to their PM. If there is a deal between Old Brother Prince and Ranil, what all this New JVP-UNP alliance means for the voters?

    The rule of Lankawe is if you are a Communist (Left),including JVP, you must honor Old Royals, . The problem with KD is he doesn’t like Old Royals, but cannot forget his communism. So he is stuck in between and convulsing to find a way out.

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