By Jehan Perera –

Jehan Perera

Four months after coming to power, the NPP government is facing growing criticism from those in the opposition and also scepticism regarding its ability to make policies necessary to revive the country and its economy. The catchy stories in the media are invariably in relation to some mishap or shortcoming in the past of government leaders. Some of these relate to the inexperience of the new decisionmakers, many of them having spent their lives in academia rather than in politics or public administration. The criticisms that ring true to the masses of people relate to the economic difficulties they continue to experience in full force. Those who contributed to the economic  catastrophe of 2022 by their own actions over the past decades have little credibility to criticize.

The promise of an uncorrupt government made at the presidential and general elections continues to keep popular support on the side of the government. There is a continuing belief that the government is sincere about keeping corruption under control and dealing with past abuses. But there is also disappointment that the promises the NPP made about renegotiating  the IMF agreement and reducing its burden on  the masses of people are not being realized in the short term. The gap between the rich and the poor continues to be very large with those who are owners of rice mills, hotels and stocks getting massive profits while those on fixed incomes and subsistence farmers eking out a living.

The basic problem for the government is that it inherited an economy that had been made to collapse by irresponsible governments of the past. The agreements that the previous government signed with the IMF and international bondholders reflected Sri Lanka’s weak bargaining position. This was why Sri Lanka only got a 20 percent reduction in its debt, whereas other countries got 50 percent reductions. The NPP government cannot extricate itself from the situation. The hope that a generous benefactor will extricate us from the difficult economic situation we are in underpins the unrealistic expectations that accompanied President Anura Kumara Dissanayake during his two state visits to India and China.

Cautionary Tales 

Nearly two centuries ago, in 1848, one of Britain’s 19th-century Prime Ministers, Lord Palmerston, declared “We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow.” His speech was meant to explain and defend Britain’s foreign policy, emphasizing that the country’s decisions were guided by its strategic interests rather than fixed loyalties to other nations or ideologies. It justified Britain’s controversial alliances and interventions, such as supporting liberal revolutions in Europe while maintaining colonial dominance elsewhere. This explains the inconsistent use of legal and moral standards by the international community that we see in the world today.

When Sri Lanka engages with other countries it is important that we keep Lord Parlmerston’s dictum in mind. Over the past three decades there has been a noticeable shift in the practices of countries that have claimed to believe in the rule of law and universal human rights. There was a long period after the end of the second world war when the powerful countries of the world that had emerged victors in that war gave leadership to liberal values of human rights, democracy and justice in their engagements in the international arena. Together they set up institutions such as the United Nations, international covenants on human rights and the International Court of Justice, among others. But today we see this liberal international order in tatters with happenings in countries such as Iraq, Libya, Syria, Ukraine and Palestine reflecting the predatory behaviour of the strong against the weak.

According to international scholars such as Prof Oliver Richmond of the UK, the Liberal International Order (LIO) is losing its grip as global power shifts toward an emerging Authoritarian International Order (AIO). In his writings, he highlights how the LIO’s failures to resolve key conflicts have exposed its weaknesses. The prolonged failures like the Cyprus peace talks and the breakdown of the Oslo Accords in Israel-Palestine have highlighted the limits of a system driven more by Western dominance than equitable solutions. The rise of powers like China and Russia, who openly prioritise state sovereignty and power over liberal values, marks the shift to a multipolar AIO in which every country tries to get the maximum advantage for itself even at the cost to others.

Prof. Richmond warns that neither the liberal or authoritarian international orders, as implemented, are equipped to deliver lasting peace, as both are driven by geopolitical interests rather than a commitment to justice or equality. He argues that human rights, development, pluralism and democracy as the outcome of peacemaking and political reform  that the Liberal International Order once held out as its vision is more just and sustainable for ordinary people than the geopolitical balancing, and authoritarian conflict management which is now crudely pushed forward by the proponents of the Authoritarian International Order. Without a new approach that prioritizes fairness and sustainability, the world risks further division and instability.

Not Generosity

Following upon the stately receptions accorded to President Anura Kumara Dissanayake in India and China, there is much anticipation that Sri Lanka is on the verge of receiving massive support from these countries that will give a turbo-boost to Sri Lanka’s development efforts. In the aftermath of India’s unprecedented economic support of USD 4 billion at the height of the economic crisis in 2022, the promise of as much as USD 10 billion in  economic investment from China reported by the media offers much hope. India and China are two economic giants that are in Sri Lanka’s  neighbourhood who could do much to transform the economy of Sri Lanka to reach take-off into self-sustaining and rapid economic development. This accompanies the  shift of economic power in the world towards Asia at this time.

Both India and China are keen that Sri  Lanka should be in their orbit or minimize its position in the other’s orbit. They each have strong rivalries and misgivings about each other, especially regarding security issues. They have had border disputes that led to military confrontations. The Authoritarian International Order that Prof Oliver Richmond has written about would influence their behaviour towards one another as well as towards third countries such as Sri Lanka. President Anura Kumara Dissanayake appears to have been aware of this problem when he visited India and China. In both countries he pledged that Sri Lanka would do nothing that would be injurious to their security interests.

Lord Palmerston’s old dictum that countries act on permanent interests rather than permanent friendships is important to bear in mind when foreign governments make inroads into third countries. Sri Lanka needs to protect its own interests rather than believe that foreign countries are going an extra step to help it due to shared political ideology, age-old friendships or common culture or religion. Sri Lanka, its leaders and citizens, need to look at each and every offer of foreign assistance in a realistic manner. Each offer should be assessed on its own merits and not as part of a larger package in which beneficence, goodwill and generosity are imagined to be the sole or main motivating factors of the foreign country.

Pragmatism, and hard headed analysis, must guide the country’s engagement with the world. This would be best done in a bipartisan  manner at the highest level, without being distracted by partisan party politics and narrow political and personal self-interest which has been our failure over time with a few exceptions. For Sri Lanka to emerge stronger, we need to evaluate every offer of foreign assistance with a clear-eyed focus on our own national interests, ensuring that the benefits align with the long-term well-being of our people.