23 September, 2018

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PC Elections – An Endorsement Of Corruption, Nepotism, Extremism And Pseudo-Patriotism

By Vishnugupta

“In a society governed passively by free markets and free elections, organized greed always defeats disorganized democracy.”  ― Matt Taibbi

When an analysis of a set of statistical data is done, unless one pays very close and scrupulous attention to the details in which the devil usually resides, one often misses the obvious and makes erroneous assumptions that eventually lead to mistaken conclusions and judgments. Drawing conclusions that suit one’s own prejudices and preconceived opinions is natural for the unprofessional, amateur analyst. Amateur historians may even embark further into bizarre analysis-territories by offering utterly erroneous interpretations and spelling out false predictions of events with a view to influencing future occurrences. Setting out his or her own personal agenda is utmost in such undisciplined minds.

A glaring example is the analysis of the recently-concluded PC elections in the Western and Southern provinces, offered by Minister Alahapperuma, the self-acclaimed Campaign Manager cum Analyst-in-Chief cum Chief Ideologue of the United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA).

Here is a very elementary presentation of comparable statistics that emerged after the PC elections in the Western and Southern provinces:

Vish

Attributing a drop of the voter-base by about 10%-13%, to the waning of the euphoria of the ‘war-victory’ is lame and hardly a sustainable argument. But much to the disenchantment of the Opposition political parties and their leaders, the UPFA’s ability to maintain a voting percentage over and above 57% in all but the Colombo district – Colombo has always been a conventional stronghold of the United National Party (UNP) since the forties of the last century – is remarkable.

The rural voter seems to be untouched and considering the fact that the polling percentage has come down by about 3%-5% in the rural areas, his allegiance to an unprecedentedly corrupt and wasteful regime and its dishonest and crooked Ministers is befuddling to the mind.

At the same time, the urban voter seems to have made up his mind about the regime. In the Colombo district, all urban and semi-urban seats, including the Colombo Municipality, Dehiwela, Kolonnawa, Kotte and Ratmalana have voted the UPFA out in that the party has scored less than 50% whereas, more ruralized electorates such as Avissawella, Kaduwela, Kesbewa, Maharagama and Homagama have voted well above 52% for the UPFA.

With the exception of Colombo and Hambantota, the UNP has maintained its rock-bottom voting block at 25% to 27% in all districts. The explanation for the drop in the UNP vote by 7% in Colombo is the fact that, due to increasing polarization of the electorate, the Tamils who usually voted for the UNP have voted almost en bloc for the Party led by Mano Ganeshan, thereby depriving the UNP of its much assured Tamil minority vote.

In Hambantota, a part of the increase of the UNP vote could be attributed to the suspension of the electioneering activities by General Fonseka in the midst of the campaign and also to the fact that a more coordinated-campaign was run by Sajith Premadasa and his supporters. Despite that coordinated effort, out of the 10% decrease of the UPFA vote in Hambantota, the UNP could get no more that 4% and the Hambantota district as a whole, still voted for the government candidates with more than 57%. The aberrational behavior of the Wayamba voter last year could be solely due to the departure of Dayasiri Jayasekera from the UNP ranks. The long-term effects of Dayasiri’s defection could be detected only after a reasonable period of time has passed.

Whichever way one looks, the proverbial writing on the wall is clear and unambiguous:

1.     The UNP voting bloc seems to have settled at a pathetic 25%-27%. It is their fervent hope that this is the ‘bottom’.

2.     More than 57% have opted for the incumbency.

3.     General Fonseka’s incursion into the UNP seems to be on the decline.

4.     The dissatisfied UPFA supporters are flocking around the Democratic Party (DP) and the JVP and not around the UNP.

5.     SLMC’s influence outside the Eastern province is marginal and the Muslims are opting for the UNP.

6.     Tamils are increasingly polarized and voting for their own candidates whenever they have a choice. 

What conclusions can one draw from these observations? Allow me to be bold in this exercise. The most pertinent of issues would be the next Presidential Elections and General Election that usually follows it immediately.

a)    It is beyond any shade of doubt that the UNP, in a General Election and as one single political entity, cannot entertain any dream of coming to power on its own.

b)    Those who agitated at grassroots level for a change in leadership of the UNP have now settled for either the DP led by General Fonseka or the JVP led by Anura Kumara Dissanayake.

c)     The UNP leaders are continuing to be comfortable in a delusionary state of mind that people would make their choices on their own without being coaxed and persuaded by an aggressively and professionally managed propaganda onslaught.

d)    The JHU’s influence in the mindset of the UPFA voter is increasing. The fringes are sadly but increasingly becoming the mainstream.

e)    The first two preferential vote-getters in the Colombo district come from the fringes. One is a daughter of a notorious politico who was slain on an election eve and the other, an extreme chauvinist who advocates abrogation of the Thirteenth Amendment to the Sri Lanka Constitution while enjoying all the benefits of that Amendment and being a Provincial Councilor. There cannot be a clearer example of a warped mindset of the voter than this reflection. Which is more warped, the elector or the elected, is a million dollar dilemma.

f)     Corruption, nepotism and pseudo-patriotism are not only condoned by the majority of voters, they are being grasped by those who have got elected from the UPFA ticket.

g)    Offspring galore! The electorate is more than ready and willing to vote for big names’ offspring. Jeevan Kumaratunga’s daughter, Yapa Abeywardena’s son, late Bharatha Lakshman’s daughter, Kumar Welgama’s son are but a handful of examples.

Everything that could go against the Government was in place except the main Opposition party – the UNP. Despite the evident pressures building up against the regime and in the face of money spent on a one-sided election campaign with the Commissioner General of Elections left helpless and impotent with regard to the brandishing of raw government power via the state-controlled media machinery, the United National Party, its National Leader and the Leadership Council looked more like the ‘walking dead’ than a vibrant political outfit. Indeed, maybe for the first time in his life, even General Fonseka took some retreating steps in Hambantota when faced with deliberate intimidation and sabotage by the corrupt agents of the regime.

If one were to project the results of the just-concluded PC elections to the next General Elections, it would once again be a landslide for the governing coalition, especially if the Opposition remains ‘ununited’ and in disarray as it is today. No clobbering seems to awaken the Grand Old Party of Sri Lanka from its twenty-year slumber.

But take a minute and peruse the following statistics too:

  • In 1977, the UNP won five sixths of parliamentary seats
  • Yet it received only between 50% and 51% of the total polled
  • In 1977, the rest of the Opposition which comprised the coalition partners of the present-day UPFA received only a total of 37%
  • At the recent PC elections in 2014, in the Western and Southern provinces, the Government got a combined net of 55.5%
  • And in 2014, the combined Opposition, UNP, DP, JVP and SLMC, obtained a combined net of 43%

I would try to interpret these stats in a later piece. In the meantime, dear reader, you too do some homework yourself and arrive at your own conclusions. A scenario in which the susceptibility of the Rajapaksa monolith is evident is likely to emerge.

*The writer can be contacted at vishnuguptha2012@gmail.com

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Latest comments

  • 6
    0

    Clearly people who vote have no idea how deep the grave is dug for the next few generations.

    “Democracy: The worship of jackals by jackasses.”
    — Henry L. Mencken (1880-1956) American Writer

    • 6
      0

      People in general thought that srilanka would be harmed by the UNHRC voting. To be honest, people in general had no idea about UNHRC voting and the danger before the country. They may have thought again and foreign intervention. After all the GONTHADIYA but most abusive leader being stage begged for votes though it was against the election laws prevailing in the country. As Rev Sobitha thero made it even clearer, they the rulers violated elections from the day of nominations. Geneva voting MR regime made use to manipulate rural masses. Majority folks living in rural areas make up over 70% play a greater role in lanken elections.

    • 2
      0

      Vishnugupta,

      PC Elections – An Endorsement Of Corruption, Nepotism, Extremism And Pseudo-Patriotism

      Listen to Ven. Sobitha Thero.

      “We need a Common Candidate to abolish executive presidency”

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkwcuXSGjSU#t=17

      Published on Apr 4, 2014
      Ven. Maduluwawe Sobitha Thera in an interview with Daily Mirror spoke about the present political system in the country and particularly on the Executive Presidency.

      Read the article,
      http://www.dailymirror.lk/opinion/172

  • 1
    7

    Diaspora wants to see the back of Rajapakshe not because of his corruption or his nepotism but because they want a weak government that would be pushed for backdoor dealings with TNA regarding devolution of power and war crimes investigations.

    Kuruduwatte gang is clueless as always so they think that people are worst off but still vote for the government bc they are stupid.

    This is what the world bank is predicting.
    http://www.ft.lk/2014/04/11/wb-tips-lanka-to-lead-south-asias-growth-flags-off-key-risks-too/

  • 6
    0

    We all want to see the back of this regime.
    Diaspora on the contrary might want the Jarapassa to stay put so the member of diaspora can enjoy their luxury life while keep blaming the dictator. Who after all responsible for electing the jarahattha?

    If this Jarahattha goes so many good things will happen to country overnight.
    Weerawansa, JHU, Bebadu GnanaSatan and his balu sena, DullAss, Karuna, KP, Anarkali, Malini, Ravindra, Hadda & MalKumaraya, Cabbarala, YakadaHora Radhaliyagoda, Hulangamuwa, Geetha, NishanthaX2 Wickramasinghe/Ranatunga, Keheliya Rediapullanna, Moron Sajin Vass,Champuka & Gommanpilla, Rathana & Medananda, Jayasooriya & Dilshan, Azvar & Paisa MustAppa, Malinda and Rajpal, Mohan deFacto, Shenali & Ratnavalli, Jimsofty & Fukushima, all will be gone. What a major relief it would be.

  • 2
    0

    It is likely that some percentage of votes are rigged. We still use the same wooden ballot boxes which can be made at any roadside wadu maduwa. Even in Afghanistan they are using plastic boxes but our brainy people still prefer the old systems which are more susceptible to fraud.

    As we know our people are very ingeneous at counterfeiting even currency notes. Ballot papers are nothing for them. Given the level of state involvement in elections, the introduction of a few extra ballot boxes is a distinct possibility. This brings us to the basic problem of having an independent Elections Commission.

    • 1
      0

      This is highly possible when hearing about all the violations that had been carrid out with or without the direct approval of President for the elections. He did care about any kind of violations, got on to stages and spoke the danger before the country, if the folks would not give them a mandate. So the all suffering, making effort to survive the life being unable to face sky rockted price hikes of even daily essentials, had no other choice than to listen to the neighbour and let it go – let abusing their votes.
      Believe me, if a any independent media instituation wouldget the chance to hold an opinion poll about the satisfacition of the people twoards the performance of MR regime, I ll bet you, over 60% would not agree with the way many of the affairs have been handled by MR himself. But these opinion polls should be held to the very same manner as EU countries would do it, giving the representation to all walks of people separately and independetly. This they could carry out by using SMS today. But the future of any fearless media institution will be not easy- because recent past proved any one would have handled things against the regime, were manhandled, assualted, killed or sent missing. This is the world of Rajapakshes.

  • 1
    0

    “Analysing” results of a flawed election is meaningless.
    A little less than 50% did not vote.
    There has been an increase in the number of ‘rejected’ votes.
    Around 30 to 40% of votes for UPFA could well have been due to all state resources being used.
    There could well have been a ‘fear factor’ which too influenced a percentage of those who did not vote.

    Until and unless a completely free and fair elections are held,the ‘wrong’ persons will get votes not intended for them.
    The cancellation of the Election Commission under the 17th amendment has ensured flawed elections.
    Was the counting this time,free and fair – ballots are reported to have been found outside counting centers.
    Sri Lanka has a long way to go to ensure flawless elections.

  • 1
    0

    “PC Elections – An Endorsement Of Corruption, Nepotism, Extremism And Pseudo-Patriotism”

    Hey don’t blame the people only.What is the alternative for them.They are slowly trying out fonseka and JVP as they have rejected the UNP as the party to rule them as an alternative to the Rjapakshe’s.So what is the UNP doing about this rejection?Are they happy to continue with their 25% block vote or are they going to have an election among all members to elect the best possible leader fro among them.What happened to the much touted leadership council.Everybody has joined it.All are leaders now?Will the voters vote for a joke of a party like this any more?The rajapakshes are dangerous,but they have still not become a joke,hence they are still getting the votes.At the rate the UNP is going the people will have to wait patiently till fonseka gets set it seems and the UNP is deposed from the second party to third party.

  • 1
    0

    Guys…this guy Vishnugupta….is a (Hik,hik…) a PROFESSIONAL and an EXPERIENCED Anal–lisst of UPFA Goon squad.

    and says this (above)…”Drawing conclusions that suit one’s own prejudices and preconceived opinions is natural for the unprofessional, amateur analyst.

    BUM SUCK BABY, IT’S PURE BUM SUCK!

    He also says in the last para……”I would try to interpret these stats in a later piece. In the meantime, dear reader, you too do some homework yourself and arrive at your own conclusions.”

    Yeah! but I don’t watch local media (JADA MAADYA – ITN, RUPAV., DERANA, SWARNA-Goo-Vahini, TNL…etc.ect..) So, my home work will always be damning on the THIEVES OF PARADISE – UPFA.

    Sorry, Vishnu-Bahu-Bootha…. You have to clap yourself on your own to your own piece of shit (this article) and get yourself rewarded with a title…Boomiputhra, Deshamanya, Bahubootha, etc….

    Take some anti-biotics and go to sleep.

  • 3
    0

    Vishnuguptha you are Right:-

    “Patriotism” means Love and Care for our Native Land!

    “Pseudo-Patriotism” means Support for the Ruling Party, whatever harm it does to our Native Land.

  • 3
    0

    In a country where literacy is rate is reported to be very high, even comparable to that of Singapore, Malaysia, european countries, but these people to stay calm and quiet while state per se are making every efforts to marginalise, now the muslims folks(fellow srilankans) is not welcome by any right thinking person on this earth. Instead of taking it serious- the UN resoultion passed against the MR administration, with 23 unannimously voting supporting it, and 12 others asbtaining from it, proved any leader the gravity of human rights fall – as no other times in the past, but MR administration is appearantly far from even little undrstanding of it. They the world police will have to apply R2P or any other possible mechanisms the set this paradise free from authoritarian rule of Rajapakshe oligarchy.

  • 0
    0

    The problem in Srilanka is that the media is either suppressed or bribed. The poor uneducated voters who do not read online English writings, sincerely believe that the present government is great. Thats what they read and thats what they see in their TV channels.
    This explains the voting pattern. Opposition parties must find a way to publish their views to the masses.

  • 0
    0

    This is the worst corrupt uneducated criminal underworld worst president we had in our living memory.

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