By Razi Muhammadh –
Razi Mohmamadh
Game theory is a mathematical model for decision making that helps to understand how people interact in their decision making process. If applied correctly, I would make wonders and help us to predict the future in a greater extent. For sure this is not astrology. It is purely based on mathematical calculations.
In this article I am applying the basic components of the Game theory and trying to guess how Mahinda Rajapaksa will react after the upcoming general elections. This game tree is set up on one fact that Mahinda Rajapaksa would be elected to the Parliament from Kurunegala district. In case if he is not elected to the parliament-something unlikely to happen, there is no need for game tree because there will be no more Mahinda.
The payoff are given based on the interests of MR. According to the payoffs the options for Mahinda Rajapaksa would be as follows,
If UPFA sets up the government, Mahinda Rajapaksa’s
1st option: to thrive to become the PM
2nd Option: leave the country
3rd option: secure a powerful ministry for him
4th option: remain as a UPFA Member of Parliament
If UNFGG become the ruling party, Mahinda Rajapaksa’s
1st option: to thrive for leader of the opposition
2nd Option: leave the country
3rd option: remain as an opposition MP
If UPFA secured majority in the parliament the best preference for Mahinda Rajapaksa is to become the Prime minister. This fact is well-known.in case if UPFA failed to secure the required majority Mahinda’s best option would be leaving the country according to this game tree. A question may arise why his next preference cannot be to become a powerful minister in the cabinet rather leaving the country. MR is the first president who is contesting for a parliament seat after the defeat in the presidential elections. Morally once a powerful man will not prefer to be subservient to another one who once was inferior to him. An executive president will never prefer to be in a lower position. If he chooses to become a cabinet minister he had to be always inferior to prime minster and the President. Any ‘would be’ Prime minister from the UPFA and the current president were once inferior to Mahinda. If UPFA wins he will vehemently try and exhaust all of his resources to become the Prime minister. If not possible he will leave the country based on this theory. If UPFA wins and MR is not elected as the prime minister his government will protect him from being convicted. Even though, he would prefer to leave the country rather than tolerating the shame and defeat of not being a Prime minister. He can demand a safe passage for him and his family to leave the country if UPFA fails to give him the premiership by threating to create a riff-raff in the country. Maithri who wants to get rid of him may agree to that.
After the general elections we can see Mahinda’s faction will take extra measures, if required extra judicial measures to secure the majority. This period would be a festival time for small parties. And you will smell some under the table transactions as well. TNA, JVP, JHU, SLMC, ACMC are out of his reach. His focus would be on leftist parties and up country representations.at the same time he would have a serious internal rift between his and MS factions. You can see a tug of war in the near future if UPFA secures the majority in the upcoming General Elections. Convincing the president and his loyal UPFA reps will be a tough corner for Mahinda. Also he can expect some foreign pressures on Maithri not to nominate him as PM incase UPFA wins. First of all he has to win, then he has to make sure UPFA wins then he has to convince the party leadership to give him the PM. Surely he has a tough road to go even if he wins.
What would be Mahinda’s choice if UPFA fails to secure the votes and UNFGG become the ruling party? On the first hand this would be a big disaster for him. Opposition is waiting till they get the majority to “take care of” Mahinda and his gang.in case UPFA fails to secure the majority in the parliament. According to the above mentioned game tree his first choice would be to become an opposition leader. He will demand that position. Because that will somehow save him from being investigated. Government may hesitate to take serious actions against an opposition leader in fear of future upheaval. Again this is a very tough task since the selection of the opposition leader involves other parties like TNA and JVP. If that fails MR’s next options will be leaving the country. Worse scenario would be Mahinda remains as UPFA MP in the opposition. Ranil may safeguard him from prosecutions as he did after MR’s defeat but he will not be able to do it for a long time. The best option for MR after the opposition leader would be to leave the country. Someone may argue what if he prefers to stay if defeated.it would be possible only with the patronage of Ranil Wickremesinge on the event of UNFGG becomes the ruling party. But that won’t last for a long time. Everyone is aware how he was creating ripples in the country after his defeat. This was silently dealt by Ranil since he didn’t have majority in the parliament. After he secures the majority there is no need for the government to tolerate MR. he will not chose to stay in the country after a second defeat which will bring more disaster for him.one may ask, then why didn’t he leave the country after his defeat in the presidential elections. Answer would be, though he was defeated in the Presidential election he thought he still had some remaining moves. He was expecting this parliamentary elections. After the parliamentary elections, he will not have a political future in Sri Lanka if UPFA doesn’t become the ruling party. If UPFA wins and he is not given premiership you can see a serious inner party conflict some time bloodshed as well. The supporters of MR may create mayhem in the country. During the fight for premiership if MR fails to secure him the prime ministerial post for him he will chose to leave the country since it is a puppy shame for him. If he wants to stay in this country he will stay in the highest power or he will leave the country. That is secure for him. If he remains non he will be in danger.so his thinking would be to do everything to assure the victory of UPFA and secure him the Premiership. If not leaving the country would be the best choice for him. If UPFA loses he would try to get the leadership of the opposition or will leave the country.
Finally if we line up MR’s options,
Option one: if UPFA wins he will be either a prime minister or will leave the country.
Option two: If UNFGG wins he will be the opposition leader or will leave the country.
Among these what will likely to happen is the big question.it seems none of the major parties will get a majority this time. This will pave way for the minority parties to play a major role in setting up the government. Since JHU, ACMC, SLMC are with UNFGG there is a possibility the UNFGG may be able to set up the government. Having considered the hatred against the Mahinda Rajapaksa yielded by the JVP there is a high possibility that they will align with UNFGG if there is a fear Mahinda will become the prime minister if UPFA wins.in this case JVP may demand the UNFGG to take action against MR and his family corruption allegation if UNFGG wants JVPs support.
The situation which prevails at the ongoing parliamentary election is not the same as the previous one. During the previous parliamentary election campaign MR was the president, he had all state media in his hand, state resources were on his back, state treasury was in his pocket, and armed forces were under his command. Today it is upside down and the challenges are more. President Maithripala’s wish for his defeat is a big blow for him and his party. He will be selected to the parliament but current situation is unlikely for him to be a prime minister. If he does not become a prime minister he will be dead meat, ashamed, irritated, and twice defeated. If UNFGG wins there are vultures waiting for MR. He may go for his first choice –to become the opposition leader-in case of UNFGG becomes the ruling party. In some extant this will save him for sometimes. Not in the long run.
Rather trying to fish in the sand and putting himself at the cliff of the mountain it would be a good option for Mahinda Rajapaksa to negotiate with Maithripala and UNP and start packing his and is family’s bags and baggage. If he is intelligent enough he would chose to exit leaving the country on the hands of some who really want this country to become a good nation. But if he again and again craves for power and let his greediness cloud his intellect for sure he will meet a dead end and there will be no coming back.
Tassimo / July 27, 2015
Don’t fret, if he wins a majority (IF because he won’t even get 65 seats ) IF only SLMC, and other greedy bastards like Heroin smuggler MOs from Mannar, Talaimannar areas will jump in bed and bend over to MR. Remember they were all MR worshippers until December 2014. SLMC hasn’t got any principles.
SLMC are racists and so are the All Ceylon Makkal party. Non racist Muslims are few now . They’ll vote for RW and UNP. rest are like Wilderbeest foolishly voting for clowns greedy for ministerships .
Game theory or no game theory, everyone in Sri Lanka knows not to trust SLMC.
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Ponkoh Sivakumaran / July 27, 2015
Leaving the country is no option for Mahinda on any theory. The Tamil diaspora is waiting to prosecute him, unless he goes to China. Who would trust Mahinda with his baby? Is this not cruelty to the baby?
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Patriot / July 27, 2015
Contrary to popular wish of the majority Muslim and Tamils in this country that MR should be humiliated and sent in to exile the majority Sinhalese don’t agree with that view. Sinhalese will vote in large number at this general election to make a point that they have the larger say in political matters in Sri Lanka not Hakeem or Sambandan. UNP and other minority racist propaganda in vilifying MR will back fire in a big way that is why MY3 is a lonely figure with no followers.
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dcn / July 27, 2015
Even though MR may get elected to parliament, it is a forgone conclusion that the UPWOOD be defeated and he could end up in the back bench of the opposition.
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Non PhD / July 27, 2015
Very Good analysis.
But what is urgent is Pre- election honesty by MR or rather how to make Rajapakse confess to the people the mistakes his cabinet members and he made during the 10 years of his rule and what he will do so that there is no repetitive mistakes once he becomes PM.
The voters must not given an open cheque to MR and his gang of 4. I hope JVP, JHU, UNP, SLMC, Upcountry parties, TNA, and real patriots like Arjuna, Hirunika openly challenge MR gang to lay their cards on the table now.
With 5 family members in politics to support him MR and the gang of 4 will use extra judicial measures to bring tyranny back again after 17th August. It will be army rule like in Myanmar , Cambodia and Thailand.
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Diluk Desinghe / July 27, 2015
Its a very interesting analysis……….Nash would be proud. Two interesting questions would be
1. after the inevitable defeat of the UPFA….will the President accede to making MR leader of the opposition? Can he and will he deny MR this post?
2. Sure the President wants his beloved UPFA in some sort of power (perhaps a national Government). If the UPFA and the UNP form a national government…..will MR get a seat as a minister and most importantly, will he accept it.
O tempora o mores!!
Interesting times indeed!!
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Sengodan. M / July 27, 2015
If there is a way to save his skin MR will accept ANYTHING!
Sengodan. M
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mike / July 28, 2015
Sengodan
“If there is a way to save his skin MR will accept ANYTHING!”
Even an electric chair which he richly deserves?
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Ranil Wijeyesekera / July 27, 2015
Well said. This type of analasis will educate the people. I think the best outcome is for all people to come together in anational government. This si RW s Promise. The people will give a sizeble support to mR. The peoples wishes are paramount. MR can contribute a lot.
Hatrad ceaseth not by hatrad. hatrad ceaseth by love. Love thy enemy. Scooled by Esmond and Lakshman Wickremesinghe Ibbelieve that we will work for u7nity of the country. If the law is broken presidential pardon is possible. However confession and restitution is necesary. Money abroad has to brought back.His service to the country entitles him for pardon. This can be assesed.
Japan did a lot of evil in the war. Murder rape theft of nations were among them. However JR s Inspired speach not to hate to the world was accepted. Japan now plys a model role. It has helped east asia to develop.
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Matilda Ellepola / July 27, 2015
MaRa will not leave this blessed isle himself… the masses and the International community need to work for his to be tried in the Hague for the cruelity to mankind and crimes against humanity that comes of killing prisoners in a planed way in Welikada, Rathupaswala folks that asked for clean water contaminated by MaRa’s henchmen owned factory, White Flag and final phase of war among others.
MaRa will be go down as another Kadaffi or Sadham Hussein and those illeterate masses who was brainwashed during his regime need to get the facts right and send this man to the right place in history.
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SL Genome / July 27, 2015
Judging by this absurd attempt to predict the future of his group’s enemy, Razi Muhammada has proved that he will be much better off [Edited out]
The Muslim hatred of Mahinda Rajapakse – a long standing supporter of Muslim causes locally and internationally – exposes the shameless ungratefulness of these selfish myth believers.
[Edited out]
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Gobba / July 27, 2015
You stupid fool, why do you think this Muslim hatred arose ? or have you been in Mars all this while and suddenly fallen out of the sky into Sri lanka ?
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Don Quixote / July 27, 2015
Why not apply the game theory to if he will contest or not ?
You may reach an interesting conclusion !
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Vanguard / July 27, 2015
A decent analysis but you seem to be wanting Mahinda to leave the country. Why leave the country when he can stay and influence the UPFA
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Strategist / July 27, 2015
Unfortunately you have not applied Game Theory well. You have not even considered all the options. Try Real Options. It is difficult to second guess the decision of a human being who has won a war that others could not. Even the US and allies are still struggling with Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria etc.
In any event Game Theory applications are not that simple. We should manage what we could measure.
Let’s pray for a united Sri Lanka – Unity within Diversity!
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Native Vedda / July 27, 2015
Strategist
“In any event Game Theory applications are not that simple. We should manage what we could measure.”
Have you considered applying “Prisoner’s Dilemma” to your analysis.
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Dushy Ranetunge / July 27, 2015
Where is the consideration if he is listed in the UNHRC war crimanals list ?
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Charles / July 27, 2015
According to the current trend UPFA without the state machinery at their disposal unlike in the past are handicapped. It is going to be a free and fair election for the first time since 1977. Thanks to the commissioner of Elections and the present rulers who have extended their support and co-operation.
I feel the UNP led alliance for Good governance may sweep the polls and will be able to form the government on their own. This will be a reality based on the current trend.
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Ajith / July 27, 2015
Unless UPFA gets two third majority in this election, whether Mahinda becomes PM or Minister or MP does not going to give any benefits to Mahinda. You need two third majority to change in the constitution to bring back all the powers of executive President. Under the current constitution, you cannot exceed the ministerial posts beyond 30 or 35. During the past decade, he got two third majority because he gave every one a ministerial posts for those crossed over to him. For example, all those crossed from UNP, MC, EPDP, Karuna,Leftists were given ministerial posts. Unless and otherwise Mahinda give direct financial gifts to eqalise the financial benefits they were allowed to accumulate through fraud, it is going to be hard to convince these politicians. There will be a problem in sharing the ministerial posts betwwen SLFP and other UPFA members. UPFA members will not get their share in the allocation of ministries because Mahinda needs the support of Weerawanse, Gammanivila, Vitharne etc. Further he may have to give BBS Thero. Now Mithiri is above him and it is not easy to manipulate justice, law and order system as he did before. So, in real terms, SLFp’ers are real loosers whether Mahinda becomes PM.
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Charles / July 27, 2015
Fully agreed. In case the UNF for good governance does not get the majority on their own, whatever shortfall could be obtained from the UPFA as there are several anti MR candidates who are supportive of the President and good governance. In such a situation and the formation of the National Government the recent amendment, I think permits the expansion of the cabinet to 55.
Ministries should be productive unlike in the past where there were ministers for Botanical Gardens but no ministry to look in to the welfare of Pensioners the senior citizens who are being harassed.
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Sriyani Mangalika / July 28, 2015
Some pictures are illusive. Reality is just the opposite
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