By Kumar David –

Prof. Kumar David

The title of this little essay must not be interpreted as saying that Putin is finished, dead and awaiting burial; rather it says that Russian President Vladimir Putin is in grave trouble, his military exploits in Ukraine face defeat, internal dissension at home is mounting and how long his regime will survive is an open question. It is this challenge that I intend to write about. I have taken what appears to be the most plausible and self-consistent information from international wire services and media sources and certainly not confined myself to pro-Western outlets.

The most reliable accounts surmise that the Russian offensive in Ukraine is losing ground. The slip is showing even with the Russian news agency Tass refers to Russian attacks on mainly civilian targets and reports “According to the FSB (Russian Federal Security Service) over the past week, more than 100 shelling attacks of 32 settlements in the Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions were recorded with the use of multiple-launch rocket systems, cannon artillery, mortars and unmanned aerial vehicles”. Other articles signifying Russian military gains can also be found on Tass, for example: “Russian air defences destroy six combat drones in Ukraine operation”; “Ukrainian garrison at Snake Island surrenders to Russian Armed Forces”; “Putin puts nuke forces on high alert; liberation of Donbass continues” etc.

Putin’s balancing act

Western media paints a gloomy picture of Russia’s military position. Independent channels Al Jazeera and Reuters give a more balanced picture. For example, “Russian forces running and panicking during eastern retreat”; “Ukrainian officials accuse retreating Russian forces of retaliatory attacks on civilian infrastructure”; “Putin accuses Ukraine of Crimea bridge blast, calls it terrorism”. The picture on balance is that Russian forces in the Northern, Eastern and Southern theatres, that is on all three fronts in Ukraine are retreating. The collective picture last week may be summarised as: Setbacks for Putin’s war as his troops struggle to hold off a Ukrainian counteroffensive. The Russian military is doing badly, etc. The flurry of Russian missile strikes across civilian and military targets in Ukraine after Ukrainians crippled the strategic Kerch Bridge linking Russia to Crimea is a sign of desperation.

Bridge from Russia to Crimea
(https://www.euronews.com/2022/10/08/ukraine-war-car-bomb-sparks-major-blaze-on-bridge-linking-russia-and-crimea)

The Hindustan Times (HT) on 10 October in a piece entitled “Where are the Russians dodging the draft fleeing to?” said that Kazakhstan’s interior ministry reported that 98,000 Russians had entered since September 21 the day of Putin’s military call-up announcement. Kazak President Kassym-Jomart added that the country will ensure the care and safety of Russians fleeing a “hopeless situation. HT also reports that a few days ago 5,000-6,000 (Russians) were arriving in Georgia every day and the number has now grown to 10,000 per day”. “Georgia’s interior minister Vakhtang Gomelauri says the Russia-Georgia border was backed-up with 5,500 cars waiting to enter. During the same period, 40,000 fled to Armenia”. There is no hiding the fact that hundreds of thousands of young Russians are fleeing the country to avoid the draft into a hopeless war. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682

However, there will a vote in favour of joining Russia in the referendum now being conducted by Moscow in the Donbass Region, in the Eastern part of the country abutting Russia – that is the Russian speaking Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic. The referendum also includes two Southern provinces (Zaporizhia and Kerson) abutting Crimea where Russian speakers are just below 50%. The 90%+ vote in favour of joining Russia reported by Moscow in Donetsk and Luhansk is fabricated and imposed by intimidation; maybe it’s nearer 60-70%. However, the anger of Russian speakers in Ukraine against decades of suppression of their language (similar to the sentiments of Lankan Tamils against the language policies of the Sinhala-Buddhist state) is natural and understandable. Annexation of the two Eastern provinces will I assume be announced soon. This ups the ante because any Ukrainian or NATO action in annexed territories will thereafter be an attack on Russia itself. 

Russian speakers in Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk number 77.0%, 74.9% and 68.8%, respectively so it’s a foregone conclusion that the referenda in the two Donbass Region provinces will approve transfer of sovereignty to Russia. Crimea “joined” Russia in 2014. As a thought experiment imagine a Donbass-LTTE which allies itself with a Russian-(I)PKF and is unburdened by a Prabhakaran-like megalomaniac. The outcome for sure would have been far different from what happened in Lanka in the 1990s.

Percentage of Russian speakers in Ukraine’s provinces
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_language_in_Ukraine#/media/File:Ukraine_census_2001_Russian.svg)

The picture I have painted thus far is a mixed one. Putin’s forces face military defeat at the hands of the plucky Ukrainians but to counter this he will gain a paradoxical political success by uniting the Russian speaking people of Eastern Ukraine with the “fatherland”. Nevertheless, political instability on the home front is troubling because the economy is fragile even sans sanctions, the currency is depreciating as the rouble collapses and supply chains are disrupted. Domestic opposition is mounting and moderately large public demonstrations break out from time to time against the war. Though Putin commands the support of 60-70% of the population and will win an election at this time, the same cannot be said of the war. The war is unpopular. But for NATO’s attempt to encircle and weaken Russia which outrages every Russian a referendum to pull-out of Ukraine will succeed at this time. There are reports that in February 2022, some 30,000 technologists, 6,000 medics, 3,400 architects, 4,300 teachers, 17,000 artists, 5,000 scientists, and 2,000 actors and creative artists signed an open letter calling on Putin to stop the war.

Nevertheless, the likelihood of Putin being overthrown in a palace coup are slim unless, as sometimes happens with dictators, he loses his marbles altogether and seriously throws a nuclear punch here or there – right now he is only playing nuclear make believe. Were he to attempt to unlock the silos, he will he pushed aside in a palace coup. The military in Russia does not have the credibility or clout to seize power for itself; the replacement will have to be a political figure, Dmitry Medvedev perhaps.

Time for me to move on, but first to recap. The scenario I have painted is that Putin will suffer military defeat in Ukraine but his political gambit of annexing the Donbass will pay off. His forces will de facto (that is other than firing missiles at mainly civilian targets) be compelled to bow out of Ukraine except the Donbass region. Political opposition will keep mounting at home but he will probably remain in power, but the game on the economic front will deteriorate. 

China the doughty suitor

I have for long been of the view that an isolated Russia will have to fall back on Chinese economic power as an engine of development and that China’s mighty machine will relish harnessing Russia’s vast natural resources. It will be a win-win relationship accelerated by Russian military setbacks and the slowing down of the Chinese economy. Most people know that Russia is resource rich but not many know that it is the resource richest country in the world. Some of this is in Siberia and the Far East – a nice coincidence for China and relevant to the point of this essay.  Russia has an abundance of natural gas, oil, timber and minerals: copper, zinc, bauxite, nickel, mercury, silver, manganese, chromium, platinum, titanium, tin, lead, tungsten, phosphates and diamonds. It is a world leader in both natural diamond and artificial diamond production and controls 26% of the global gem-diamond and 30% of industrial grade diamond production. Russia holds 37% of unmined gold reserves (world’s second largest) and is the world’s third largest gold producer behind China and Australia.

Russia accounts for 20% of the world’s production of oil and natural gas, holds 17 billion tons of oil – the eight largest in the world – and 48 billion cubic meters of gas reserves – the world’s largest. It also has the world’s second largest coal reserves. The iron ore deposits of the Kursk Magnetic Anomaly are believed to hold one-sixth of the world’s total reserves. Abundance has made it self-sufficient in energy and a large fuel exporter. It is self-sufficient in nearly all major industrial raw materials even after Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan left the USSR. The forests of Siberia contain one-fifth of the world’s timber, mainly conifers. In fact, Russia holds the world’s largest forest reserves, 20% of the total; more than Canada or Brazil. To cap it all though much of its land is under permafrost Russia ranks third in arable land and is rising in world ranking of agricultural producers. 

That’s enough data – culled from the most reliable statistical sources – to make my point which is that China’s large investable capital, immense population, technical ingenuity and skill, and Russia’s abundant natural resources can and will make a happy union one day; Putin or no-Putin, Xi Jinping or no-Xi Jinping, Ukraine or no Ukraine, Corona virus or no-Corona virus. You don’t have to be a dialectical materialist or a hard-nosed businessman to see this. How can it be otherwise?