By Asoka S. Seneviratne –

Prof. Asoka.S. Seneviratne

On 12 May 2022, Ranil Wickremesinghe (RW) stated he was undertaking a dangerous challenge as the economy was bankrupt. After going through three episodes, Prez. RW told the nation that he had rescued the economy from bankruptcy. It is remarkable indeed. Based on this, he continuously states that it is suitable for people to walk with him only in the future. However, the bottom line is that people cannot feel that the economy is no longer bankrupt. People want to feel it, and it is up to Prez RW to make it feel right. Now the only test and challenge for Prez. RW is declaring his candidacy for the presidential election and winning it. Then only Prez. RW can realize people can feel that the economy is not bankrupt anymore. However, Sri Lanka needs a new leader with clean hands and a broad vision to rescue the country from bankruptcy and hence lead the country to prosperity. This will mark a NEW ERA, which also paves the way for the end of the so-called Episodes Saga.

Introduction

It was on 12 May 2022 that Ranil Wickremesinghe was appointed Prime Minister by then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Following this, he made a statement about the nature and extent of the challenge he undertook, referring to the Wel Paalama or Broken Rope Bridge episode. The background to the above statement was the country’s economic crisis, in which people faced mounting hardship, and the country’s debt crisis paved the way to declare bankruptcy. Given the above, Wel Paalama is related to the mounting hardship people faced, while “Caucasian Chalk Circle” is related to overcoming economic and debt crises. The “Titanic” episode is about the background of the completion of debt restructuring. President Ranil Wickremesinghe (Prez. RW) used different names, but it is about the unprecedented crisis that faced the country and how he managed it.

In those episodes, Prez RW tried to explain and convince the public of many things to strengthen his political career and stay in power. Furthermore, along with those episodes, he tried to create political instability in the country. This article describes the specific situations related to those episodes, his responses, behavior, and his expectations for the future. Please note that this article is related to my previous article, “President Ranil Wickremesinghe Rescued & Stable Economy In Sri Lanka – An Inquiry“

Wel Paalama (broken rope bridge) episode along the economic crisis.

This episode was set against the background of the new generation Aragalaya or struggle, which demonstrated the utter frustration and disappointment of the masses. This was due to the numerous and unprecedented problems with the scarcity of cooking gas and fuel, the disturbance of the electricity supply, and skyrocketing prices.

In short, this was an economic crisis. On 16 May 2022, RW, as the Prime Minister, stated, “I am undertaking a dangerous challenge. In the Caucasian Chalk Circle, Grusha crossed the broken rope bridge carrying a child that was not hers. This is an even more difficult undertaking. The precipice is deep, and its bottom cannot be seen. The bridge is made of thin glass, and there is no handrail. I am wearing shoes with sharp nails that cannot be moved. My task is to take the child to the other side safely. I am accepting this challenge for the nation. My goal and determination are not to save an individual, a family, or a party. My objective is to save all the people of this country and the future generation.”

The above statement shows the poor status of the economy and the difficult task ahead for revitalization. It was a challenge, and accepting the challenge, his objective was to save all people and the future generation. It should be noted that the Wel Palama episode is related to RW as the Prime Minister and the Caucasian Chalk Circle is related to RW as the President.

When RW was elected president on 20 July 2022, the situation gradually eased even though people had to pay high prices for cooking gas, fuel, and electricity. At the same time, all forms of poverty increased; mounting nutritional problems emerged, millions of houses were deprived of electricity, unemployment increased, and more than 100,000 Micro, Small, and Medium enterprises collapsed.  However, in the abovementioned article, I appreciated Prez.RW for the government’s efforts to ease the situation. Irrespective of the above, the result of the Wel Paalama episode contradicts reality.

President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s promises of a better life were starkly contrasted by the harsh reality of increased poverty, debt, and social unrest. In other words, people could not feel that they were better off or that their well-being had been improved, so they headed for a better and more prosperous life. While many lost incomes, others were forced to carry an unprecedented debt burden. Social unrest and increasing crimes were at the forefront. Given the above, Prez RW’s repeated story of Wel Paalama became meaningless because people felt the new location was more miserable than the previous one for many reasons.

In addition to the above, the following was noticed

Prez RW worked with his cabinet colleagues during the abovementioned shortages and skyrocketing prices, stating “that we were committed to helping the masses by doing everything possible”. With team spirit, he spoke in parliament and at public rallies about the problems faced by the masses. Furthermore, he stated that during his tenure until the 2024 Presidential election, “we would be able to provide a peaceful and happy life for all”. This means that he did not give any indication to stay in power after 2024 or any intention to extend his tenure as the president. As the situation gradually eased, except for a few rallies demanding salary increases, people did not stage mass demonstrations like in Kenya, given the unprecedented tax hike. People were convinced that Prez RW would not be the next president as the masses rallied with the NPP. In short, people rallying with NPP was a blessing for Prez RW as it paved the way for political stability in the country so that Prez RW could work until the presidential election.

The Second Episode with the Debt Crisis: Caucasian Chalk Circle  (CCC)

CCC explains that a lady named Grusha sacrifices her happiness and dignity on behalf of an abandoned child she takes as her own. This means Prez. RW took care of the economy.

This second episode is part and parcel of Wel Paalama, or broken rope bridge. It is based on the above that Prez. RW stated that he cared for the economy, which other leaders refused.

In the second episode, what is important is the president’s behaviour and response. The president’s response was entirely different when urgent attention was needed to the debt crisis following the declaration of bankruptcy. Indeed, economic and debt crises are two sides of the coin or twin brothers.

Discussions about the country’s debt burden were ongoing; Prez. RW, stated, “I managed to defer or postpone some debt after talking to creditors.” (2023). The above is not correct at that time because the discussion was not completed in 2023. Only now do we know about the successful conclusion of the debt restructuring discussions. Along with the above background, Prez RW stated, “I believe in my ability to save our country and its people from the economic abyss. I had a comprehensive work plan and a deep understanding of other nations’ strategies to emerge from similar crises. Furthermore, I believed the economy could be revitalized with my planned policies and dedication”.

Compared to the first episode mentioned above, Prez. RW completely forgot “We” and substituted “I” when debt and debt restructuring were involved. In other words, he forgot that he worked in a team with his cabinet colleagues, as indicated in the first episode above.

Most importantly, he stated that Sri Lanka concluded debt restructuring within two years. He emphasized that it was a victory for Sri Lanka compared to other countries that faced similar situations. However, Ecuador, Argentina, Mongolia, and Belize concluded their debt restructuring in less than one year, while Barbados and Chad concluded debt restarting in less than two years. Also, he stated that “I had a comprehensive work plan and a deep understanding of other nations’ strategies to emerge from similar crises”. Given the above, the president’s statement is incorrect or substandard because it is not worth it for the president to undermine the success stories of other countries. Instead, it is good to learn from the stories of those countries. Prez. RW urged all MPs to collectively unite to carry the “Good News” into the future. Indeed, the nature and extent of the “Good News” is another subject to write about. Debt restructuring is a work with unity or working together. But the Prez. RW,  again made the statement based on “I”, as he stated, “ Despite these conditions, I accepted the challenge, without any conditions, I believed in my ability to serve our country and its people from the economic abyss”. Usually, the leader leads, and the manager manages. However, it seems that Prez.RW was doing both.

The Third Episode: “Titanic”

This episode is about the completion of debt restructuring, including private bondholders or ISBs. The Titanic ship struck an iceberg, broke apart, and sank to the bottom of the ocean, taking the lives of more than 1500 passengers. Prez. RW states that no one wanted to take care of the crisis (i.e., ship) that hit the Sri Lankan economy, but he took care of it. Accordingly, the ship “Titanic” safely arrived at the Port. It is remarkable indeed.

Given the above or agreements reached on the restructuring, Sri Lanka can defer bilateral loan instalment payments until 2028 and repay all loans on concessional terms with an extended period until 2043. A substantial reduction of debt obligation or “haircut” of about US$3 billion is also expected.    

The point is that even if we receive some concessions, we still have to pay more than US$30 billion. The Titanic looks safe at the Port, but the government has no clear plan and policies for debt repayment. If it believes the Economic Transformation endeavor will help, it is also far beyond 2033 and 2043.  At the same time, as per IMF’s Debt Sustainability Analysis, Sri Lanka can start repaying its debt by 2033. However, the government’s decision to go with 2028 cannot be comprehended.  Given the long time devoted to debt restructuring, the government seems to have overshadowed economic management. This is not a good sign, as people’s suffering is mounting.

Along with the episodes mentioned above, the government tends to create instability in the country. Regarding the above, we witnessed some episodes. The news about the UNP’s proposal to hold a referendum to postpone the presidential and parliamentary elections by two years caused a calamity. Some government MPs proposed that the president stay for ten and 12 years. There was also the mushrooming of political alliances. Another concern is whether the team of the Presents should be 5 or 6 years.

While the UNP and SLPP still name candidates, people count the days until the presidential elections. “Good News” consumes substantial time and wastes resources, too. Along with the “Good News,” the President uses all stages, including granting free land deeds to people, to tell the people he is the right person to lead the economy to prosperity.

The real test and challenge for the Prez RW is based on the rescued economy from bankruptcy

On 16 May 2022, Ranil Wickremesinghe stated that “I am undertaking a dangerous challenge……I accept this challenge for our nation.” That is excellent indeed. He states that when he took over the country, it was bankrupt. He repeatedly emphasized that he rescued the country from its bankrupt status. Furthermore, Prez RW states that Sri Lanka can do business with the rest of the world as bankruptcy is not there, and the USA, Japan, and India have been satisfied with the progress Sri Lanka has made and congratulated Sri Lanka. Hence, the “Good News” must prevail and travel to the future, embracing the future generation. It is not Prez’s statement that he rescued the economy from bankruptcy that is the matter. He is not the right person to state that Sri Lanka is not a bankrupt country. As in the past, the rating agencies will do it. Let them do that. Indeed, the people must feel the outcome of the Prez. RW rescued the economy from bankruptcy. Most people do not know the meaning of what the Prez. RW is advocating and trying to convince them that the country is not bankrupt now. Indeed, people cannot feel it, and the Prez. RW cannot make it feel. In other words, Prez RW cannot do it. This is the real test and challenge for the Prez.  RW if his utmost determination is to face and undertake the challenge based on what he stated on 16 May 2022. Instead of telling episodes repeatedly, trying to please the people, and not looking for other episodes, it is good that Prez. RW will declare his candidacy for the presidential election and win the election. This is the real test and challenge for Prez. RW now. Only then can he realize that the country is no longer bankrupt and people are with him, walking ahead. It is remarkable indeed. However, Sri Lanka needs a new leader with clean hands and a broad vision to rescue the country from bankruptcy and hence lead the country to prosperity. This will mark a NEW ERA, which also paves the way for the end of the so-called Episodes Saga. 

*The writer worked as the Special Advisor to the Office of the President of Namibia and was a Senior Consultant with UNDP for 16 years. He worked as a Senior Economist with the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (1972-1993) before he migrated to New Zealand. The writer can be contacted at asoka.seneviratne@gmail.com