23 September, 2019

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Resounding Victory For Modi At Lok Sabha Election 2019

By S. Sivathasan

S. Sivathasan

Mahatma Gandhi cited in a single cryptic sentence his reason for selecting Nehru as India’s first Prime Minister – “India is safe in Nehru’s hands”. Today India in her millions have echoed in chorus, “India is safe in Modi’s hands”. This affirmation comes after trial and test for a full five-year term. A billion Indians had a million reasons for deciding so.

I wrote five articles on Modi’s electoral prospects, from 7 October 2018; the last being on 19 May 2019, two days ahead of exit polls results. In my articles 1 – 4, I maintained with assurance and certainty that Modi and BJP will have 300 + seats. I give below some of my predictions made in my articles up to May 19, 2019 and the actuals after the elections.

How did such forecasts become possible? Having followed India’s progress, multi-sector growth, all too visible developments and owing them very much to the Modi regime, the polity had decided well ahead whom to attribute the success to. A repeat of the same became the urge and mission of the voter. To those who surveyed happenings in India, every ripple was observable. Predictions became easy.

Making them better understood, were eloquent expositions by Modi and his Ministers in Parliament. The countrywide speeches made by the leadership carried the masses sky high. Modi himself flew 100,000 miles to address the masses at 160 mammoth meetings. In contrast to these persuasive speeches was the puerile prattle from the Congress leader. Little wonder he lost even the family pocket borough – Amethi in UP — to Smriti Irani whose victory was certain from the day Rahul announced his shift to Vayanadu

To this writer what moved mountains in the voting pattern in favour of BJP was the sustained performance of the regime in five years, presented in a masterly fashion by Modi. Above all, the charisma he exuded gripped his audiences like a narcotic. He took the masses as intelligent human beings who could understand all the statistics that he splashed across. From the very outset, when he entered national politics six years ago, he got the trusted support of his lieutenants and carried the masses with him.

His reading and absorption of Swami Vivekananda he used with deadly effect. To him food to the starving, poverty alleviation of the neglected farmer, satisfying the material side of life before reaching for the less intelligible spiritual, were all relevant and important. Sages mortified the flesh. Vivekananda and Modi understood perfectly Ramakrishna when he said “To the starving man God appears in the form of bread”. This perception underlay the payment of a token Rs. 6,000/= per annum per farmer family. Doubling of farmer income by 2022, the 75th year of independence is the solid pledge for the immediate future. Rahul promised 12 times more immediately after victory! Who believed it?

Seat share that the polity gave, displayed trust reposed in Modi and disbelief of Rahul. Sathyam Eva Jayathe – Truth Alone Triumphs – is inscribed in bold relief in Lok Sabha. “Na Anarithum”- never untruth- was not ever inscribed in Rahul’s mind. It was best exemplified in his refusal to acknowledge his untruth over Rafael Deal even after Nirmala Sitharaman, Minister of Defence ripped and demolished him five times in parliament and out.

The dust has settled over the hustings. What hovers yet more is the euphoria about the victory. It has won the encomia of the world and brought genuine – not formal – accolades from world leaders. India’s reactions were different. After voting in phase III when 302 or 59% of the electorates had voted, it became clear that BJP was winning. After phase IV on April 29 and 69%, the leadership was reassured of a great victory. 

Not wishing to waste even a day from then, Modi ordered a macro plan be outlined for the first 100 days rolling into 2022 (75th year of independence), 2030, 2040 and even 2050. The 22 oppositionist formations showing their hideous front and divided back, scampered for their own safe haven and stridently reassured themselves and the voters of a great victory. Six Prime Ministerial aspirants had already become PMs and remained rivals till 23, May 2019. However strident their cry, the country thought otherwise. Modi is now set on his next five-year term with a third term to follow.

The country now awaits the Policy Pronouncement. A lukewarm media that did its very worst to keep Modi out, is no match for the People’s mandate. It is up to the polity to rally round with hoops of steel more and more.

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Latest comments

  • 6
    16

    we know mr.siva that you are very happy that a fundamentalist hindu leader is endorsed by the hindu india and it will be safe under him. your aspirations are now fullfilled. my view is that hie is totally unsuitable for a multi ethnic india. india will be a total failure in her attempts to become a world power. you will see the future is very bleak for india under the BJP. do you like a sinhala buddhist fundamentalist rule in SL?
    -daya

    • 11
      3

      First of all do you (mean Dayan) like a sinhala buddhist fundamentalist rule in SL? The answer from you will be yes, but in media you will say no. Cowardly all the sinhala politician deny that Sri lanka is ruled by chauvanist buddhist fundamentalist. If Sri lanaka is a budhist country India is hindu india, that’s all. I can feel your fear coward…!

      • 1
        4

        “Pathetic India” should be the motto.
        Since independence in 1947 Indian has fought with and de-stablized all its South Asia neighbours and is now joining the biggest rogue state in the World, Trumpland, to sabotage the Rise of Asia, led by China today.
        Pathetic and jealous India.
        Always on the wrong side of history and destroying its neighborhood while pretending to be a “Big Power”.

  • 2
    5

    Wonder whether this Mr Siva can do a prediction on how many votes Dr Ranil will get.
    if Dr Ranil puts the Hand Up against Nandasena?..

    I mean it is not complicated as Lok Saba.
    Talking about this Modi Landslide, I hear that not even one Muslim among his 304 MPs.

    In contrast Dr Ranil depends on Bathudeen and his 5 MPs to get Oxygen.

    How does Modi do it?…..

  • 8
    1

    This is a part of Modi’s victory speech. Wise words for our politicians and minorities.

    “In India, live like Indians. Any minority, from anywhere, if it wants to live in India, to work and eat in India, they should speak Hindi common language of India, and should respect the Indian laws. If they prefer Sharia Law, and live the life of Muslim’s then we advise them to go to those places where that’s the state law.

    “India does not need Muslim minorities. Minorities need India, and we will not grant them special privileges, or try to change our laws to fit their desires, no matter how loud they yell ‘discrimination’. We will not tolerate disrespect of our Indian culture. We better learn from the suicides of America, England, Holland, and France, if we are to survive as a nation. The Muslims are taking over those countries and they will not take over India. The Indian customs and traditions are not compatible with the lack of culture or the primitive ways of Sharia Law and Muslims.

    “When this honorable legislative body thinks of creating new laws, it should have in mind the Indian national interest first”.

    • 3
      1

      Tatami,

      Isn’t that applicable to Christians, Buddhists, Jews, Sikhs, Tamils, who do not want to speak Hindi as well, and are not Hindus? The original name of India was Hindustan, the Land of the Hindus, but before that there were other Natives, called Dravidians and forest dwellers, Vedda people .

      • 6
        7

        There was no India before the British colonized the sub-continent.
        There had been three big empires none called India or any such thing. The first became Buddhist dominated. The second was dominated by Islam and a deviation from it at its peak. The third was Tamil, ruled by a Saivaite ‘Hindu’, but did not spread very far north.
        Dravidians refers to speakers of a large family of languages.
        There are a large number of tribal people speaking a variet of languages, including the Munda linguistic family.

    • 2
      1

      Taraki,

      Provide a reference for what you quote as Modi’s victory speech. I want to know if somebody is providing fake words. Modi has matured as a politician in recent years and I suspect he wouldn’t speak like that. He might have said something like that while he was CM of Gujarat.

      • 1
        0

        I recall Taraki repeated the same stuff as Modi’s victory speech a few years ago, and when I asked for reference, he never gave. I tried to google the exact phrases to see if Modi ever said that but didn’t find anything. I think Taraki is probably a liar.

        It doesn’t mean Modi’s past actions against Muslims can be dismissed, but I don’t think any PM of India where there are millions of non-Hindi speakers as well as Muslims, some of whom support BJP, would say something like this.

  • 3
    7

    “A lukewarm media that did its very worst to keep Modi out…”
    Which may I know, except the Hindu perhaps, which is not read very much in the Hindu-Hindi belt.
    *
    What reversed BJP’s fortunes since its dismal performance in State Assembly elections of Nov-Dec 2018 was the terrorist attack in Kashmir, and the bogus claim of hitting a terrorist target in India. The BJP campaign turned very sectarian since March.
    *
    Let us wait and see about the promises.

  • 1
    10

    The Indian people have spoken. They have voted for a racist, who said nothing, and did nothing when over a thousand Muslims were raped and killed over a unsubstantiated rumor when he was Chief Minister in Gujarat. He has also not delivered what he promised during his last election, and India’s economy has not done well under him, with many people unemployed. People get what they vote for just like in Sri Lanka.

  • 9
    0

    even with a weak economy modi won because of the poor quality of the alternative prime minister who is no match for the charismatic modi.Rahul ghandhi has no charisma at all and looks a weak leader.His sister would be better as she is the spitting image of indira ghandhi.Reminds me of anura trying to keep out chandrika and get elected.He would have had no chance with his lack of charisma.Anyway i can’t understand the congress thinking it is owned by the ghandhi family.Dynasties are meant for when kings were ruling and they had no need to get approval of the people.Now times have changed and merit should be the only consideration to selecting a candidate.Where modi is concerned there is no other leader,he is there on pure merit,after running the gujarat state so well.In rahul’s case he has no track record or experience.What a mismatch.

  • 16
    0

    i have to congratulate the author on his prediction.Brilliant.Never have i seen something like that.The author obviously does a lot of work and research before he puts pen to paper.

  • 12
    1

    India with its federal secular constitution, is an example to the world.
    Satisfaction of citizens has resulted in good economy, minimum corruption, and massive advances in technology.
    Of course there are religious ‘maniacs’ but these are outnumbered by sober citizenry, belonging to diverse religions and languages.
    All politicians/candidates for elective office, declare their assets publicly.
    Top universities have produced brilliant scientists, technocrats and professionals most of whom remain in the motherland and contribute their skills. Many abroad are leaders in their fields of expertise.
    There is much more to do and Mody will accomplish things slowly & steadily.
    Mody the former ‘tea boy’ is now a world leader and the electorate chose him.

    • 0
      1

      India is far from federal.
      The state is is secular, thanks to Nehru and Ambedkar. For how long is a big question.

  • 3
    10

    Modi’s popularity was in the downward prior to the April 21 – Carnage in Sri Lanka.
    Indian election was held from April 11 to May 19. It would be interesting to know whether there is any pattern that shows the increase in the votes for Modi after April 21.
    As pointed out on the April 21 itself, India is behind the attack. India and the USA both.
    Sri Lanka’s instability called for a strong India which may have led for a resounding victory for Modi.
    Well, they have already gained in the tourism sector. Sri Lanka’s loss was India’s gain.

  • 4
    8

    My dear friend Sivathasan,
    Congratulations on your predictions. Really amazing! How come, you have conveniently omitted any mention about BJP complete washout in Tamil Nadu. Hindutwa fundamentalist forces have been trounced in toto by the DMK-led alliance in TN. It was a disaster for BJP- they lost all the five seats they contested in ADMK-led Alliance in TN. While DMK Alliance captured 37 out of the 39 seats (including Pondichery), ADMK won only one seat (Theni). Also, note that BJP could not make any headway in the other two Southern States of Kerala & Andhra, though Hindu fundamentalists have made inroads in Karnataka.
    Haven’t you read about the post-Election attacks, by BJP goons, on Muslim minorities in the North?. True to their traits, Hindutwa gangs are on the prowl.

  • 2
    4

    BJB couldn’t win a seat in Tamilnadu in spite of several projects advanced by the central govt. The reason may be that each caste in tamilnadu has its own political party and the voters preferred their own caste men and women to be elected. Modi and local BJB leaders were not preferred as they were portrayed as anti tamilians and anti periyarists.

    • 2
      6

      This is one election in which caste politics failed in Tamilnadu.
      Tamilnadu is among the few politically secular states in India.
      Nothing was said during the elections about Modi being any such thing.

      • 2
        0

        SJ
        SJ

        If tamilnadu is a secular state, I will be very happy. But in reality it is not. It is divided on caste and religious grounds. Each caste has its own party and hurl abuse, verbal as well as physical, against each other. Most parties are against Hindus saying that they oppose ” matha vaatha ” ( religion based ) but they join with islamists parties as if they don’t advance ” matha vaatha “. Cant you see all of them are hypocrites. If they are genuine in abolishing castes and caste based discrimination, all of them should join together under one organisation or party, throwing away their caste labels. When they are not prepared to come out otheir caste shells, how could they abolish castes. Leaders of each party are to be blamed because they want to maintain their control leadership power and authority over each caste based communities. They will not allow the communities to abolish the caste divisions. If they do then they loose all of their power. Look at their assets of each of these parties. All are millioners or billioners. Veeramani who always talk big got billions and he has appointed his son as his successor to run his organisations. DMK big wigs are family based and not democratically elected. Money and caste win the elections in Tamilnadu. Not secularism, not policies or democratic principles.

        • 1
          1

          SJ

          Periyar asked his followers to demolish the statues of Hindu gods. But what is happening now ? His followers have built statues of Periyar in each town and worshiping him, which Periyar didn’t want or expect to happen. Replacing the Hindu god statues with Periyar statues ! Protecting the statues and worshiping it are all similar to Hindu temple goers. What sort of periyarism is this ? How many disputes and divisions have occurred in Veeramani’s Dravidia Kazhakam ? Doesn’t it show that Veeramani behaves like a dictator and promote his family members only ? None of these Dravidian parties wants to abolish caste and bring the communities to a higher level. They could implement so many projects to improve economically of these poor downtrodden people by using the billions they hold. One way of reducing the caste discrimination is by making them rich and reducing dependency. But it won’t happen even if Periyar comes alive tomorrow. !!

        • 0
          1

          Caste identity is strong across India. But Tamnilnadu is among the more enlightened states.
          Tamilnadu has the smallest proportion of names with a caste identity. (Even Periyar was known as Nayakkar for long.)
          There are far fewer religion-based clashes in TN than in nearly any other state.
          *
          Periyar is a cult figure, but nobody ‘worships’ him.
          The man is absolutely outstanding as a social reformer and as an advocate of social equality, especially gender equality.
          He was highly respected even by his political foes, including Rajagopalachari. Kamaraj was a great admirer.
          *
          Periyar launched a campaign against idol worship, and that has to be seen in context. Those who know him would vouch for his respect for the personal faiths of individuals.
          In what was achieved for the oppressed, he is unmatched in Tamilnadu and is much appreciated by Dalits in the north.
          Whatever is secular and progressive in TN owes much to him.
          *
          There is much vile gossip against him by interest groups. If that is what you like to hear, good luck to you.

  • 12
    0

    Mr. Sivathasan, I already have given credit on your accurate predictions, elsewhere in CT. Once again congrats. I admit I am not a Modi Fan.Though I expected BJP to win, never expected by this margin. But I will give credit when due. He is genuine, decent person willing to put country before self. But we cannot say the same with the rest who surround him. Especially the ilk of Amit Shah, Deva Gowda and Yogi. I will like to hear your opinion on Lanka politics in comparison to India. In my opinion Lankan politicians have always been self serving( with very few exception) and their sole purpose is to get into power and then abuse as they wish.When Indians are going against family rule Lankans are promoting it more and more. There is no vision, no long term goals and not even a election manifesto any more. The only manifesto I see is playing the race/religious card and for that, causing more hatred, disharmony and distrust among communities.

  • 2
    15

    What a clown! India has always been on the wrong side of history with it swords, nationalism and destabilizing all the sub-continent neighbours. And now sucking up to Trump and trying to defeat Asia Rising because of jealousy about China!
    Pathetic India should be the motto!

    Going nuclear while the Indian Ocean is being looted by its buddy Trump.. India has lost the plot fighting wind mills and old wars with Pakistan when it is the USA that is the biggest rogue state in the world today.
    Indian Ocean is being looted by EU and Japan, Korean distant water fishing fleets with Modi is dancing with NATO~

  • 1
    1

    Would like to read your opinion of how the Tamil Nadu results will drive the leadership of India in the future.

    • 0
      8

      Not just Tamilnadu. Andhra, Telengana, Kerala and Orissa.

  • 10
    0

    Mr. Sivathasan, able and popular ex-Civil Servant deserves to be congratulated on his near perfect prediction of Modiji’s victory. India faces deep challenges in the years ahead. Will the Modi, with able assistance from Amit Shah – the Indian version of Trump’s Steve Bannon – rise up to meet India’s unending socio-economic challenges in a world burdened by an economic slump?

    Sri Lanka will be one area of India’s concern as the Island – as a result of low quality and despicable governance dominated by two feuding and thieving sides – is right royally in the dumps. This part of the world will see much conflict
    in the immediate future with the USA, China and India being the main contenders for dominance of the adjoining sea routes. The treacherous and unreliable Pakistanis – long suffering a tottering economy and widely regarded as a Failed State – will add to our woes. The growing machinations of Global Islam will add to the confusion. The Sri Lankan political and theocratic leadership will inevitably fall to the waiting clutches of regional and global powers. We see signs of this already although our political leaders, from all sides, are playing a cat and mouse game fooling the usual gullible Lankan voter. Using the Tamil idiom how long can you hide the elephant with a rice separator (sulagu)?

    Kettikaran

  • 11
    0

    The reason Modi was he is a nationalist. As long as Modi is in power SL will be safe too.

  • 12
    0

    BJP government took a consistent,discernible and sustained momentum towards progress of the country on all imperative fronts. Modi believed governance not in absolute terms but in relative achievements.
    Unfortunately we never had such visionary leaders in our country and we don’t foresee anyone in the near future either.
    A country with nearly 900 m voter strength, it is not an easy task to feel the pulse and the mental balance of the vast populace baffled within propaganda tsunami waves, to enunciate the outcome from the polls. I am not an expert on this, however I am certain the author has taken great pains to study the various projects initiated during the tenure of this government and how far they have impacted on the people.
    The near accurate forecasts by the author, by concerted study of the progress and growth at all sectors from the day Modi administration commenced, is remarkable.

  • 3
    1

    Mr. Sivathasan,

    I give you credit for your accurate predictions. There is a book by David Esptein that came out yesterday; it explains why generalists succeed in getting accurate forecasts while credentialed specialists ( economists, political ‘scientists’, even real scientists) have shown dismal failure in forecasting time and again. I think it fits in with your generalist background.

    Regardless of what the masses have voted for, I would normally support secularism and am no fan of Hindu nationalism. I vaguely recall your previous article where you said that the Tamil mind is inscrutable. But the South as a whole has largely upheld secularism. The North may be more entrepreneurial, but statistically, the South is more educated, with a focus on the sciences. In some of your earlier articles on Tamil Nadu’s progress, you have recognized that. So you can’t simply dismiss the Southern mind as ‘inscrutable.’

    • 6
      0

      Agnos

      Thank you for your complimentary remarks. The quote is correct and up to a point you are right. To the group of specialists should be added the late entrant psephologist. Specialism or so called apart, fault lies in self-styling. Karl Marx said “he was not a Marxist”.

      Generalist background is only a meagre part. A line in ‘Naaladiyaar’ a Sangam classic speaks of equanimity of mind deriving from objectivity. Thirukkural emphasizes absolute impartiality. I assessed the electoral prospects in India with total detachment. In 2014 I gave Modi 280. He got 2 more. This time he got 1 less.

    • 1
      3

      Agnos

      ” south as a whole has largely upheld secularism “

      You are totally wrong. Millions or billions of rupees played a major part along with caste preference in Tamilnadu election. Except a few educated upper class, ordinary citizens don’t know anything or care about secularism or any other isms. How to feed their family members is the biggest worry of these poor souls. Dravidian politicians knew well of these facts and uses it to buy their votes. If you look at these politicians’ assets and criminal declarations filed by them before the election, you wont talk about secularism. Please read my comments appearing above as well.

      • 1
        2

        Millions or billions of rupees changed hands across the whole of India.
        Tamilnadu is free of religious bigotry, thanks to the Self Respect and Rationalist Movements.

  • 2
    1

    Congratulations Modi; & appreciate Indian people for doing the right thing.

    What’s expected from India is bravery & expansion (of power).

    Flex muscles.

  • 0
    0

    Mr.Sivathasan what is your take on Jaishankar,s appointment as foreign minister. So unexpected. A civil servant , never been an elected member is now “picked out side of the box”. Irony is he has vast experience on Lankan Matters and is well aware of our politicians past history. I am not sure whether he was posted to Washington after Lankan stint.

    • 2
      0

      Chiv

      I welcome it 100%. Selection to the IFS is through a competitive exam. His Father too was in IFS I believe. In his mature years he was a trusted defence strategist and analyst to Indira Gandhi. He authored quite a few books. This is to show his background. In years 1989 – ’90 he was in Colombo as First Secretary and had a high reputation as a brilliant officer.

      As for election, it confers no mystic quality which 40 years of achievement does not endow. Legitimacy will come through appointment to Rajya Sabha, the Upper House. This avenue is provided for the country to draw on the ability of people of distinction. MS Swaminathan a distinguished scientist in the field of agriculture is also a member of RS.

      • 2
        0

        Mr Sivathasan,

        I think you are referring to Mr. K.Subrahmanyam, the late Defense Analyst based in Delhi. The Subrahmanyams, originally from Coimbatore, are well-known as part of the Delhi-based Tamil Brahmin community often called Tambrahms.

        Mr. Jaishankar has a brother, Sanjay, who is a distinguished professor of history at UCLA, has won several awards and often lectures as an invited speaker in Europe and other countries as well. Both Jaishankar and Sanjay are married to non-Indians/non-Hindus, and secular in their outlook, despite the former’s FM position under Modi.

  • 0
    0

    Correction:
    Not from Coimbatore, but Thiruchi.

  • 0
    0

    Thanks Sivathasan and Agnos.

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