
By Kumar David –

Prof. Kumar David
In a previous article I quoted from a publication of the Indian Planning Commission which said:
“Since 1947, the Indian economy has been premised on the concept of planning. This has been carried through Five-Year Plans, developed, executed, and monitored by the Planning Commission. Nehru was ex-officio Chairman and the commission had a Deputy Chairman of Cabinet rank. Allocation of state resources was based on a transparent and objective mechanism. The Narendra Modi government announced the dissolution of the Planning Commission and replaced it by a think-tank called the National Institution for Transforming India”.
The next government of Lanka will be what I hereafter call a Left option (JVP-NPP-Anuran) or a Right option (some sort of UNP-RW-Sajith Combo). In either case a Planning Commission is an essential tool. Yes, its tasks will be somewhat different in the two cases but to an extent, as I will explain anon, be similar. One similarity will be the composition of the Commission; people drawn from state institutions (public servants), intellectual and political strategists and persons appointed by entities like the Right to Information bodies. Sri Lanka has never had a formal Planning Commission, ever. What it did have were ad-hoc arrangements which were set-up and mucked-up by successive governments.
During the early years of independence, successive governments placed little emphasis on development planning. The National Planning Council was established in 1956 as part of the Ministry of Finance. A new Ministry of Planning and Economic Affairs (no longer in existence) established in 1965 decided not to draft another single long-term plan and instead drew up separate plans for different ministries. The National Planning Council was established in 1956 as part of the Ministry of Finance. Between 1957 and 1959, the council and the Central Bank depended excessively on a variety of foreign economists. A new Ministry of Planning and Economic Affairs (no longer in existence) was established in 1965 and decided not to draft a long-term plan. Instead, it drew up a number plans involving different ministries.
Unsurprisingly it was the United Front Government that came to power in 1965 and returned in 1970 after a 5-year interruption, that shifted towards formal planning.
The Five-Year Plan for 1972-76 had two principal aspects. First, it sought to remove disparities in incomes and living standards. Second, the plan sought to promote economic growth and to reduce unemployment. It envisioned rapid growth in agriculture, not only in the traditional crops of rice, tea, rubber, and coconut, but in such minor crops as sunflower, manioc, cotton, cashew, pineapple, and cocoa. Like the Ten-Year Plan of 1959, this plan proved to be based on overly optimistic assumptions, and it soon ceased to exercise influence on government’s economic policy. In 1975 it was replaced by a Two-Year Plan that placed even greater emphasis on agricultural growth and less on industrial development.
After 1977 the government continued to accept the principle of state direction of economic activity, but in contrast to the 1970-77 period it encouraged the private sector to participate in the economy. Its first Five-Year Plan (1978-83) included an ambitious public investment program to be financed largely by overseas grants and loans.
A quick check of this contradictory, chequered and befuddling story is available from which I have, at my discretion, selected the information presented in the previous three paragraphs.
To repeat, Sri Lanka has never had a formal Planning Commission. It has only had unstable ad-hoc arrangements as described above. A formal Planning Commission modelled on Nehru-era Indian experience is now urgently needed. Membership will have to be drawn from intellectuals of stature, state institutions (public servants), able political strategists and persons appointed by entities like the Right to Information bodies. In this connection two articles by Lionel Bopage in the Colombo Telegraph website on 25 Sept (Part I) 2023 and Oct. 1 (Part II) 2023 are interesting because they touch on the political side. Their theme is that devolution and the preservation of national security can both be ensured by sensible policy choices. [Sri Lanka – Nation Building, Devolution & The 13th Amendment – Part 1; Sri Lanka – Nation Building, Devolution and the 13th Amendment – Part II].
Whether what I called the Left Option or the Right Option in the second paragraph of this essay prevails at the next election there are certain continuities in national planning that must ride-through whichever the outcome. Let’s be clear, electoral victory of the Left Option will not mean revolution because the JVP-NPP will have to seek redemption through a solemn undertaking that democracy will continue and democratic elections for change of government will be held at regular intervals (otherwise it can kiss goodbye to any hopes of winning). The Anura-and-NPP are not Lenin and the Bolsheviks. Victory does not mean a social and political revolution where opponents will be dispatched by the tumbril-load to the guillotine. There will of course be substantial policy changes (otherwise what’s the point of winning an election), but less than revolutionary. This is where the role of a Planning Commission becomes important. It makes it possible to ride-through utterly disruptive effects but still implement policy differences reflecting the priorities of different periods and different governments. That’s the trick.
The global scenario will change profoundly in the next few months due of the Hamas led attack (Palestinian uprising). These changes will affect Lanka since the US, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Syria and Russia and China will respond in different ways. If Iran can test a nuclear device and delivery system it is likely to use the opportunity since Israel is unlikely to counterattack because of military constraints and unwillingness to provoke the Muslim world at large. Be that as it may, Netanyahu surely the most unpopular, despotic, right-wing, and undeniably the most corrupt Prime Minister Israel has ever had, will be ruthless in Gaza and bomb it to cinders. When tens of thousands of Palestinians perish the Arab world will be irate. The UN General Assembly and the policies of China, Russia, the Muslim countries of Asia and Central Asia will all be thrown into turmoil as outrages multiply. Turkey’s Erdogan said “the intrusion of US warships into the region will encourage Israel to unleash a massacre”. India’s Modi is an appalling ass who shot his mouth off with a commitment of undying loyalty to Israel’s most reactionary and fascistic government, the Netanyahu government, which is hell-bent on a ‘final solution’ to the Palestinian question by the physical elimination or eviction of the Palestinians from their homeland. (I do not contest the right of the Jewish people to a homeland; that is the right of Israel to statehood). But asinine Modi shot his mouth off prematurely and created huge difficulties for Indian foreign policy. However, this this article is not about world affairs and I am only painting a worst case scenario in a one paragraph to alert my readers to a fast changing world. My point is that in this context Lanka needs a well-structured Planning Commission that can sustain policy continuity and help the country ride through impending vagaries.
Planning Commission
The coming period will be filled with uncertainty. It is necessary to reduce risks to the national economy arising from uncertainties in trade, investment and supply chain disruptions. The dichotomy between state and market has always been a factor, but the enormous uncertainties that serious global conflicts in the recent period have caused increase the hazards and a flexible planning commission is a tool which can be used to address these concerns. These conflicts have intensified after the Hams-Israel conflict.
There is an added factor; IMF conditions on debt renewal will evoke different responses in say a RW led, an RW-SLPP oriented, or an Anura-NPP group. A well-staffed, intelligent and flexible planning commission is a contrivance that can navigate these uncharted waters and help the country protect itself from supply-chain disruptions and hitches arising from market vs. statist inconstancies. These dichotomies are inescapable. A rightist government will strive to use taxation as a tool to promote business entrepreneurship. A leftist one will tend to reverse these priorities. A Planning Commission staffed by intellectuals and professionals must maintain an even keel through these vicissitudes.
chiv / October 22, 2023
Planning commission for what?? To make sure we are worse than GAZA .Haven’t we heard and seen enough Commissions for Omissions ?? Any idea about members of that planning commission ??? Mahindananda, Deal Dasa , Pissu Sira , Diana, Wijewardena , Sagala?????
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chiv / October 22, 2023
Any thoughts on UNP’s Conspational change???
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old codger / October 23, 2023
“Since 1947, the Indian economy has been premised on the concept of planning. ” says Prof. KD.
But the fact is that the Indian Planning Commission, like its Soviet counterpart, resulted in a Byzantine mess of red-tape and what was called the “licence raj” . For example, car manufacturers were alloted only so many cars, leading to waiting times of several years, and poor quality due to the captive market. TV broadcasts were severely limited. If the Plans continued, Indians would still be using dial-up modems!
It did however contribute to industrialization, but most industries were inefficient, and were closed down or privatised after near-bankruptcy in 1991. Another success was education, particularly technical education in the ITI’s and the University College system. Agriculture too improved to self-sufficiency.
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SJ / October 23, 2023
Much of India’s modernization is owed to state planning.
Whether unplanned economy could have made things better is speculation.
But India was handicapped by feudal ideology that permeated society and still dominates the ruling party.
Overcoming that requires political change. That is where USSR and PRC succeeded with planning.
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hemasenanayake / October 22, 2023
“A rightist government will strive to use taxation as a tool to promote business entrepreneurship. A leftist one will tend to reverse these priorities.” Let me put my question as follows.
Rightist option – promote business entrepreneurship.
Leftist option – will not reverse the promotion of business entrepreneurship. If this is the case, planning commission can “reduce risks to the national economy arising from uncertainties in trade, investment and supply chain disruptions”, instead move to speedier growth, possibly after the win of leftist option.
Will the leftist option explain on this point? This question is important because the planning commission has to work under the political and economic vision and directive set by the government.
Hema Senanayake.
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SJ / October 23, 2023
hs
We have had rightist thinking dominating the economy since 1977.
Where are we today?
The answer is elsewhere.
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Raj-UK / October 22, 2023
A Planing commission? We had enough & more commissions but have we actually abided by the recommendations of any?
JVP/NPP claim to better educated with intellectuals among their membership, therefore, many have accepted them as an alternative to the current mainstream parties which have a miserable reputation. However, I see no such plans for economic growth & the sources of funding in the JVP/NPP manifesto, just vague promises without proper costing. Maybe we have to read between the lines & accept that the JVP/NPP being socialists, assume that taxing the ordinary citizens would not be their policy but the question of funding development remains a question.
”A rightist government will strive to use taxation as a tool to promote business entrepreneurship. A leftist one will tend to reverse these priorities.” Would the JVP/NPP or any of the unofficial spokesman (or woman) contributing to CT able to clarify Dr KD’s statement?
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leelagemalli / October 23, 2023
1
Srilankans should come down and ponder where they went wrong.what caused us to get misled and cheated again and again ? and what is the guarantee that we would turn 180 degrees and be positive future in the next election? all these questions are crucial above anything else …
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Only then will they realize that the hand extended to us by the developed nations can be put to better use. stand against CORRUPTION and abuse SHOULD BE TAUGHT as a subject *Disipline” from grade 01 at school education. the million dollar question would be if teachers re not disiplined enough how can they teach it to the children ?????
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We are more introverted nation than open to the world because we were colonized by European colonial masters for several centuries. Perhaps our false fears against so called foregin invasions is the real obstacle not to open to the world yet.
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tbc
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leelagemalli / October 23, 2023
2
unncessary colonical hatreds cant bring us an inch forward. I have got to know we have no proper diplomatic relationship with portugal yet today. why ?
THe same is the case with Holland and Spain even if local misleads would interpret it leaving the facts aside. Many are forced to believe that UK dominates the world yet today. THe truth is europeans compare it with falling Portugal almost everday. TRuths are not gone to our media in SL, why ?African coutnries have lot more close relations with powerful EU coutnries today and make use of the assitance properly for their economic and various other developments.
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lies by some estranged diplomats keep us ever cornered. What has DJ got to lanka, even if he served as an ambassardor to France and Rusisa?? Had his relationships been exceptional, why could not the bilateral agreements or pacts work well for the benefit of the two nations *between Russia and SRllanka OR France and SRILANKA*?
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Look at how indian counterpart gained bilateral and multilateral agreements to their country within short period of time… why not our idiots learn it from neigbouring coutnries ? ours is a swollen mentality with nothing at our disposal… or not ? i wonder indian politics even if the country is ruined by mystics, myths, various religious beliefs, superstitions, that nation moves forward while our 22 million small country stagnated due to lack of proper vision and wisdom.
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tbc
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leelagemalli / October 23, 2023
3
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Diplomatic missions should make good use of the expertise in many fields they receive in support. If we boast about our knowledge, we lack sufficient expertise in many fields. That we must finally accept our abilities and potential. if we dont have them, why not come down to be modest and accept the assitance from foreign countries ? uneducated political criminals such as WImal weerawanse led paranoic theories, based on conspiracy theories caged us somewhere with uNiverisity experts showed sloth behaviours.
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It is worth a thousand times more than monetary aid. If our diplomats are genuine and open with a discourse of this line, I don’t think the EU will show their backwardness. Most of the European Union is very burdened with shortage of nurses and various other attendants in their health sector and can be happy to give our young people the opportunity to come to Germany and some other countries to find their jobs through bilateral agreements. Since INDEONIESIANs have been doing this for so long, both sides benefit. I know Indonesia’s population is 10 times larger than ours, however, we need to find a middle ground on how we can get more benefits for EU countries for our economic goals.
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old codger / October 23, 2023
LM,
“Diplomatic missions should make good use of the expertise in many fields they receive “
The few professionals in the FO are outnumbered by defeated candidates, ex-military panjandrums, and all sorts of bootlickers. So, what expertise?
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leelagemalli / October 23, 2023
Brother COdger,
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During the CBK days such appointments were through selection, and with the advent of DA Rajapaksa’s brute sons, he became unanimous with the help of so-called Oxford education law professors. Who to blame today _?
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Why on earth did our Ramona Fernando or those guys keep their mouths shut at that time, why Jaliya Wickramsuriya was appointed ambassador to the United States and went to jail a few months ago?
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I think Mahendra Rajapaksa has fooled everyone because he knows that GLP is like a *symbol of betrayal of educated people* despite the average education in Sri Lanka. They must have thought that if such professors are publicly cleaning the behinds of rascals, why not us?
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leelagemalli / October 23, 2023
The same goes for those who were caught *how people were led astray*.
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The Valampuri man who was later arrested by the police
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Dhammika Paniya / Schizophrenia and his curry
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Eliantha White
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Royal Astrologer
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Ghanakka aka HATHARA BEERI LALITHA FROM A PURA
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RICE Sirisena aka Dudley
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Rajapakse / Jackson’s Goebbels
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GALTHANNA KAPUWA that was too rich to touch
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ASP Liyanage and his property
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THIS LIST IS CEASELESS
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SJ / October 23, 2023
oc
very true
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vipuli / October 22, 2023
Sri Lanka does not need any commissions to prolong the agony anymore. 75 years of corruption and commissions have not achieve anything . What it needs is a corruption free government and a corruption free Administrative service and the guys proposing commissions and benefiting from them.
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chiv / October 25, 2023
Agree with vipuli, UK Citizen and others who are thinking on the same lines. Ranil has 25 years plan, Nimal may have more than that until one of his children is adult enough to become Party leader. Mahinda , plans only up to his re- election, ( after that it will be Mahinda Plan, no more commission ) Sajith, is not even sure about his own party plans Lankans have heard and seen enough of such plans, all their lives. Will IMF finance Lanka to day dream ??? If not China / India will come up with plans, so that there is no need for us to make any plans.
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Buddhist1 / October 23, 2023
First of all, before anything else, what Sri Lanka needs is an honest Police Force and an honest Judiciary. Without these two there is no point in doing anything else. We will always be in a rut!
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leelagemalli / October 23, 2023
B1,
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.”First of all, before anything else, what Sri Lanka needs is an honest Police Force and an honest Judiciary. Without these two there is no point in doing anything else. We will always be in a rut!”.
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Genuine police can evolve from Genuine people or not ? The same is valid for judiciary.
How can this ever be possible, in a country whole lot of people are dishonest?. We point the finger at Israelis what about sinhala Buddhist racist monks who are the front 🏃♀️ 🏃♀️ 🏃♀️ 🏃♀️ runners of sinhala racism against minorities in our country 🤔?
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This is why, Not only debt restructuring but also the society must be subjected to restructuring.
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This is obviously long overdue. Would JVP led crying babies ever realize the gravity 😢 of the issue? Pigs 🐖 might fly if they would see it beyond. That is why they can’t be the alternative for future youth. People are to blame.
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Alpha / October 23, 2023
1.) It is a proven fact that whatever planning we have done have all been disastrous mainly because they had not been realistic and also done to meet the political agendas of the ruling clan.
Even though we are now a bankrupt country, we still do not have a plan to extricate ourselves from this predicament. We are merely following the dictates of the IMF merely in order to get more loans knowing fully well the serious damages being caused to our economic future.
The IMF prescription is merely to balance the Budget deficit totally ignoring the Trade Deficit. In the process the economy is seriously on the decline with many Companies closing down or relocating overseas because of continuously increasing costs and uncertainties created by various actions of the political establishment.
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Alpha / October 23, 2023
2.) We do not need any plans. What is required is to urge all the citizens and the Companies to put their shoulders to the wheel and work hard to keep producing both for the local market and the export market. Towards this end the Government should provide all the facilities to reduce costs of production in order to gear the country towards economic growth.
This would entail a meaningful and a transparent reduction in Government expenditure. Reduction of energy costs, taxation and interest costs and stop the Central Bank from manipulating the exchange rates.
At present the main economic focus of the Government seems to be on tourism and worker remittances. Both of these sources can vanish overnight should wars escalate or a disease starts spreading.
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SJ / October 23, 2023
“What is required is to urge all the citizens and the Companies to put their shoulders to the wheel and work hard to keep producing both for the local market and the export market. “
What will we produce and for which market?
Can we do without a plan somewhere?
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Alpha / October 24, 2023
Our professionals and also skilled workers are spread all around the world helping overseas Companies and Governments to develop those Companies and countries. They are sought after and have proved to be excellent entrepreneurs, engineers, accountants, doctors etc. We are chasing them out by stupid Government policies.
There is a lot that we can produce instead of importing. And there is a lot that we can produce and export. We are still talking of tea, rubber and coconut. If not for Premadasa, apparels would not have seen the light of day. Many items can be produced here if the environment and the focus is right.
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Pundit / October 23, 2023
A planning commission headed by a person with a proven track record. Not a day dreamer who has pie in the sky plans which he hopes will become a reality in twenty five years.
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UK Citizen / October 24, 2023
A “5 year plan” – sounds like something out of Mao’s “Cultural Revolution”. How did that work out? How many people died?
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I have experience with the “5 year plan” at your national carrier. Multiple “5 year plans” were presented every time a new CEO took over.
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The “5 year plan” was supposed to result in a profitable Airline – instead the Airline helped drag the country off a cliff. Massive losses are still ongoing while a small group has pocketed large amounts of US$.
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Having personally seen the Theft/Fraud/Corruption/Nepotism and Incompetence that characterised daily operations at your National Airline – the last thing that’s needed is another 5 year plan imho.
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I have personally submitted written testimony in 2 separate investigations into the National airline – I used people’s own e-mails and letters to prove my case. They’re not as smart as they think they are!
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The second year long investigation has never been released to the public – not a single individual has been held to account.
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I would suggest a better plan is to start by electing a Government – Ranil has no mandate. Appointed not elected. Don’t keep electing the same useless people.
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Secondly restore the Rule of Law – without this you are done as a country imho.
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