By Vishwamithra –

“But it is a characteristic of wisdom not to do desperate things.” ~ Henry David Thoreau

We have discussed widely and enough of the options available to the opponents of the Rajapaksas. But what are the options before the governing cabal, the Rajapaksas? It’s not so impertinent to invite our writers, pundits and the general reading masses to discuss the full range of options that could be considered as options or alternatives that the ruling Rajapaksas would like to reckon for their own survival or extinction. Extinction is the obvious alternative which a massive majority of voters would welcome with glee. Yet as history has told us on innumerable occasions, they, the rulers, in a functioning democracy, would never abdicate power even if they find themselves on the brink of certain defeat at the elections.

The ruling party, whether in a developing democracy like Sri Lanka or in those sophisticated west or even in dictatorships all over, always makes every possible attempt to prolong their hold on to the leashes and employ all their wherewithal to hang on, may be forever, come what may.

Yet the governing party does not have an infinite number of alternatives, if they choose to perpetuate themselves in power. An examination of these alternatives could be vastly thought-provoking and even dreadful if they opt for any one of those alternatives.

What are the options available for Gotabaya Rajapaksa, his party and their cohorts?

1. Go for a quick Presidential Election without any interference from the center

2. Keep the Presidency running and dissolve parliament and go for parliamentary elections without any interference from the center

3. Dissolve both Presidency and Parliament and hold elections for both at the same time without any interference from the center

4. Assume a dictatorship by dissolving Parliament

5. Hold whatever elections and rig them both so that the eventual winner is their own choice- Gotabaya and Pohottuwa

6. Do nothing and let the present course take its own twists and turns until the due date for the elections arrives

These six alternatives are of vastly intriguing and possible-kind and the potentiality of each being proven real varies from zero to a very definite high probability mark.

Protests are fast becoming the order of the day; in fact, they are as common as the long lines for petrol, diesel, kerosene and all other essential food items. The physical landscape is changing and shadows of economic hardships, cultural decay and political uncertainties are engulfing the nation in double quick time. There is no room or space for middle ground which seems to be disappearing at a breakneck speed.

The average citizen, whether he is an aimless meanderer on unforgiving gravel in a rural hamlet or the solid cement in the city, whether he is a private sector junior executive or a public school teacher, whether he earns a monthly salary or is an unskilled laborer on a daily wage, is driven to the edge of misery and physical and mental exhaustion. Their children are being subjected to the plenty of scarcities of daily needed amenities. In such an exacting economic circumstance, how can the rulers indulge in celebrations of birthday parties and other decadent luxuries? These new realities of life might not have manifested themselves yet for the masses to behold, but the day such realities dawn on them, the outpouring rage and fury may not know limits; the venom and self-pity that they sense may not know bounds. If their last hope begins its final lap of the journey, they might resort to the only means they have within themselves to express their hitherto suppressed anger and wrath. Let us all hope that that day would not dawn!

Above is the cruel context we need to deal with; as a nation, exploited by its leaders, government or opposition, which needs to reckon with. The harshest realities of life and livelihoods are threatening to burst asunder many a relationship and many a friendship. Scarcities of essential items for meager existence could propel the most pious and apathetic men and women into uncontrolled action. The country as a whole is on a fast track to reach such an inauspicious end. So, what can the Rajapaksas do? What course of action or what option as described above would the Rajapaksas chose?

Given the prevailing sociopolitical circumstances, if the Rajapaksas are hell-bent on staying in power at whatever the cost to the country and her people, their only choice is either number 4 or 5. Both of them are frightening options for the nation, both in the short term as well as in the long run. When the walls begin closing in, one finds that only the ultra-loyal cohorts will gather around the power center. They will build an impenetrable defense around the family and those who are inside the fortress will not see what’s occurring outside and vice versa. This is a fundamental element in power politics. It happened on the eve of the 1977 elections and then the actors were Sirimavo Bandaranaike and Felix Dias. That set of friends, relatives and henchmen would let the inner circle know only what they wish and like to know. No person who might have a contrary point of view would dare approach even the moats of the fortress.

What is the option number 4 – Assume a dictatorship by dissolving Parliament

In fact, in the context of the 20^th Amendment passed during the current regime, assumption of a dictatorship by dissolving parliament is a redundancy. Gotabaya’s government enacted a Constitutional Amendment within the first two months of its coming into power in August, 2020. The 20th Amendment to the Constitution, so enacted, bears as its central feature the concentration of powers in the Executive President, and thereby erodes several of the democratic reforms introduced by the 19th Amendment.

Meera Srinivasan writing to ‘The Hindu’, Indian newspaper, wrote thus: ‘The 20th Amendment rolls back Sri Lanka’s 19th Amendment, a 2015 legislation passed with wide support from the Rajapaksa camp — then in Opposition — that sought to clip presidential powers, while strengthening Parliament. The new legislation in turn reduces the Prime Minister’s role to a ceremonial one.

In the two-day debate, opposition MPs broadly argued that the Amendment threatened to take the country on the path of authoritarianism, giving the President unbridled powers, while government MPs emphasized the need for centralized power for better governance’.

Why Gotabaya and his family would want to dissolve parliament in the face of nearly unlimited powers vested in Executive Presidency as per the 20^th Amendment? It is to restrict the Opposition parliamentarians from galvanizing the people around the oppressive policies of the government and their consequential hardships brought upon the people. In their own convoluted minds, they would argue that the absence of a legislature would further strengthen the grip that they would exercise and deployment of uniformed men and women on the streets would curtail mass resistance, if there were any.

Option number 5 would be indeed a very desperate act, if the Rajapaksas choose it. Holding elections in the midst of extreme conditions and in extra-distraught circumstances when the masses are not only being weighed down by grossly unbearable burdens such as present day realities, but, on the contrary, are in a mood beyond all patience, could be severely uncomplimentary to the governing party. What the Rajapaksas should not wait for is for that anger and rage to turn into uncontrollable violence. At the same time, some advisers to the Family may be in the process of asking them to provoke such a situation wherein a violent uprising could be branded as a society-destroying mechanism unleashed by the Opposition forces and such violence would naturally and justifiably warrant an equal or even more violent suppression- theory of revolution and counterrevolution.

But what would render an argument for the option number 5 is the strength that Gotabaya Rajapaksa has shown by setting up of offices headed and staffed by army personnel as parallel administrative structures to the district management system in all districts in the country. What was initially described as another cog in the government machinery to hasten the delivery systems of government amenities and facilities are in real terms a parallel system of officialdom that is unreservedly loyal to the Rajapaksa family.

The Police force on the other hand, might not be loyal to the end as they are more closely associated with the daily lives of the masses. Their loyalties are also bonded with those parliamentarians in each district and they owe some sense of loyalty to all parliamentarians, whether they represent the government party of otherwise. On the other hand, military personnel are notorious for following orders, whether such orders are in compliance with the chapters and verses of the constitution of the country.

There is no likelihood of the Rajapaksas choosing any of the other options, i.e. 1, 2, 3 and 6. Possibilities are zero to 5 percent that they would start listening to saner minds and more balanced advice.

But desperate men do desperate things. The Rajapaksas are willy nilly accelerating their own speed towards an abyss, a threshold of desperation. No force is more violent, no man is so disdainful than one who is desperate.

‘Never be afraid to raise your voice for honesty and truth and compassion against injustice and lying and greed. If people all over the world…would do this, it would change the earth’, so said William Faulkner, famous writer of yesteryear. Faulkner, an American writer known for his novels and short stories, was no ordinary man; his gifts to the literary world are immense and immeasurable. When such men write words of wisdom, ordinary folks do listen and they do read.

*The writer can be contacted at vishwamithra1984@gmail.com