30 November, 2022

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Sri Lanka’s First Firm Steps At Economic Reforms

By R Hariharan

Col. (retd) R.Hariharan

President Ranil Wickremesinghe took tentative steps to bring a semblance of orderly governance during the month. He ended the month presenting an interim budget to stabilize economic growth with the aim to create a surplus by 2025. After the exit of the Rajapaksas, their hopes of Wickremesinghe restoring democratic governance were belied when the government used the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) to rounded up the Aragalaya leaders, drawing severe criticism from civil society and the UNHRC.

There is a sense of disappointment among the people to see parliamentarians reverting to ride their hobby horse – jockeying for power, tinkering with legislation in the name of curbing executive powers of the president and endlessly talk of the elusive “all party government”.

On the positive side, the young energy minister Kanchana Wijesekara seems to be making honest efforts to tame and rationalise energy pricing and distribution. The talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have progressed, though efforts to reschedule creditors is making halting progress, with China playing truant. President Wickremesinghe seems to have succeeded in his tightrope act in foreign policy so far, despite the India-China differences coming alive over China berthing its spy ship in Hambantota port in spite of India’s security concerns.

Interim budget and economic reforms

Presenting the Budget, President Wickremesinghe said the government’s aim is “to create a surplus in the primary budget by the year 2025.” The Daily FT listed six salient aspects of the budget. These included the announcement on billions of rupees-worth social safety measures, quit notices to public servants over 60, restructuring for key 50 state owned enterprises (SOE), measures to kickstart revival in agriculture, industry and tourism, write off default loan of farmers and announcement of wide-ranging revisions to many existing legislations.

Every Sri Lankan would agree with his remark that the country “can no longer be a nation dependent on loan assistance….We can also no longer be used as a tool of interference by other countries with strong economies. All of our collective vision should be to make our country strong and stable, in order to stand independently.”

However, Wickremesinghe’s reiteration of the call to political parties to join the “All Party Government” is probably has only some cosmetic value to the political discourse as the APG is a non-starter. While this may be the need of the hour, much will depend upon how the political cookie crumbles. As he said, if Sri Lanka “miss these opportunities, we will be marginalized globally.” But the credibility of his remarks is weakened as the same tainted political class is still calling the shots in the present government. There is talk of former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa returning home on September 24 from his self-exile in Thailand. If that comes true, Wickremesinghe should get ready to handle the unsavoury task of yet another socio-political turbulence.

The main opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) has welcomed the budget. SJB MP and economist Dr Harsha de Silva saw it as an attempt by the President to change the course of the country into a ‘modern productive enterprise’ by undertaking serious reforms to stabilise and restructure the economy. To achieve this, the President has proposed the introduction of new laws like the Public Finance Management Act to run the affairs of the government and amendments to the Monetary Law Act to reduce the pressure on the Central Bank from Treasury and reduce money printing. The introduction of the new laws will have a more disciplined system of governance.

With entrenched in political and trade union interests in SOE and among public servants, Wickremesinghe is likely to face a tough task at every step in fulfilling this part of the agenda. As Dr de Silva pointed out “They (SLPP) opposed every type and every time reforms were brought up for four decades. It is a quirk of circumstances and fate almost that is them who will have to do these reforms now.”

The state-owned Sri Lankan airlines is a case in point. It has accumulated a staggering $ 1 billion debt and dues comprising of $ 175 million government guaranteed international bond, $ 380 million payable to state banks, BOC and Peoples Bank and $ 80 million loan taken from BOC by mortgaging shares of Sri Lankan Catering. The government can no longer fund the national carrier given the country’s financial, forex and economic crisis.

However, the privatisation of this white elephant is going to be an uphill task, as leftist trade unions rule the roost in most of the SOEs and see a red flag in any talk of privatisation. Already, there are protests voiced against the proposed privatisation of retail distribution of fuel. Ultimately, when IMF’s structural reforms come into full play, Sri Lankans will have no option but to corral and weed out 60 odd white elephants of SOE.

As PM in the Sirisena-Wickremesinghe government, Wickremesinghe had co-sponsored the UNHRC Resolution 30/1 adopted in 2015. To retain his international credibility, he will have to bring the issue to a logical conclusion by establishing a credible judicial process to bring to book alleged right abusers. This is a humongous task as the President is dependent upon the SLPP support.

The first step in improving the government’s accountability process would be to abolish the PTA “one of the key enablers of arbitrary detention for over decades” as described by a UN body. Unfortunately, the government has used it to arrest Aragalaya protestors. Instead of doing away with PTA, the government efforts are on subsume its provisions in a National Security Act (NSA). This could only bring international criticism to the government, when it is trying to maximise its economic support. Of course, the larger question of implementing 13th Amendment in full is still lingering and this is yet another pressure point.

China’s wolf diplomacy in action

China’s “spy ship” Yuan Wang-5 docked in Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port from August 16 to 22 disregarding the security concerns of both India and the US and turning down Sri Lanka’s request to defer the visit. The research ship belonging to the PLA’s 5th branch – the Strategic Support Force (PLASSF) – created in December 2015, is capable of carrying out space, cyber and electronic warfare. It also has the capability to assist PLA’s land-based stations in tracking satellite, rocket and ICBM launches within a range of 750 km. There is more to China’s insistence on docking Yuan Wang-5 in Hambantota port than refuelling and replenishment. China was testing the depth of India-Sri Lanka relations which have become closer than ever before. It is also a strong affirmation of China’s influence on Sri Lanka and the Indian Ocean Region. This was indicated in an op-ed the Chinese ambassador to Colombo Qi Zhenhong wrote in Sri Lanka media. Hinting at India, he warned “any infringement on the national sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Sri Lanka shall not be tolerated” (obviously by China). He further added, “External obstruction based on the so-called ‘security concerns’ but without any evidence from certain forces is de facto a thorough interference into Sri Lanka’s sovereignty and independence.”

The Chinese ambassador also reminded Sri Lanka of the 51st session of the UN Human Rights Council to be held in Geneva where human rights issues of Sri Lanka might be stirred up, where China could help. India took strong exception to the Chinese envoy’s article. The Indian High Commission in Colombo departing from the norm, let loose broadsides on the article saying “His violation of basic diplomatic etiquette may be a personal trait or reflecting a larger national attitude.” It added, “His views of Sri Lanka’s northern neighbour may be coloured by how his own country behaves. India, we assure him, is different. His imputing a geopolitical context to the visit of a purported scientific research vessel is a giveaway.” It is evident, India is not prepared to tolerate any more needling from China. External Affairs Minister Jaishankar during his South American tour explained that the relationship (with China) cannot be a one-way street. “They are our neighbour and everybody wants to get along with their neighbour…But everybody wants to get along with their neighbour on reasonable terms. I must respect you and you must respect me.” He stressed that each one will have their interests and we need to be sensitive to what the concerns are of the other party.

Tail piece: Yuan Wang-5 is currently 400 nautical miles South-Southeast of Dondra Head at the southernmost tip of the island nation. It is a matter of detail that the vessel is mapping the ocean bed in an area close to the US military base in Diego Garcia.

*Col R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com

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Latest comments

  • 2
    3

    Sorry Lanka’s first firm steps at economic reforms. 1) The fugitive behind bankruptcy is back. He may become the next PM or even President again. 2) Just to maintain him in Lanka will cause MILLIONS of tax payers money. ( apparently one ministry head recently ordered a set of silverware / spoons worth 42,000 LKR to have meals, during official hours) 3) Mara will soon become party leader getting rid of GLP. His sceam is to take control of power ASAP (remember constipational coup). 4) In the mean time Basil working backstage, will do everything to sabotage current govt. (Yahalpanaya 2.0) 5) Last time public voted Mafia family out, only to return back and turn country bankrupt, This time public went on protest hoping to get rid, and they still will return in much bigger numbers.6) So called historians then wonder how faith in election / Democrazy/ Constipation got lost , so that public looks for other means of showing dissent. In turn they “victimize the victims” by labeling them as terrorist, violent leftist ???? 7) Corruption, nepotism, PTA, kleptocracy are hear to stay so that Stupid Lankans will live ever happily from hear after. 6 ) What’s new in our sorry Lanka.

    • 2
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      (Part I)
      Chiv,
      1. “Corruption, nepotism, PTA, klept•oc•racy are here to stay so that Stupid Lankans will live ever happily from hereafter.
      2. What’s new in our sorry Lanka?”
      Cannot agree with you more on 1 above??
      Those seems to be the ‘TONIC’ that Sri Lankan’s seem invitingly adorable towards, be used to, excite and invigorate their life and lifestyle with 64+% inflation with Bread at 300+ Sri Lanka rupees a loaf (450 gms – 1lb)??!! Average per capita being Sri Lanka rupees SL Rs 24500/month or 1500/diem
      Respect of 2, none at all, continue to plod in our “Merry ways”??!!
      Always, my reservation Lankans, insufficiently enlightened, enjoy Representative Democracy with ‘universal’ adult suffrage (UAS), instead “educated Adult Suffrage” (EAS), would have served Sri Lanka better, many ways than one??
      At least we would have achieved to better content in Parliament, than ‘Chain Snatchers’??!!
      Education, although free, content and context lacking and or is POLITICALLY TARNISHED!? Would you have any better, for instance, Subject ‘HISTORY’ is excised out of curriculum, PM of the day didn’t have gumption to face students enlightened to JVP insurrection and mass killings, judging her action of the day to quell the murderous violence??

    • 2
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      (Part II)
      One wonders, whether these Politicians then, thought that “students being more intelligent & have higher IQ than them, with exposure to excellent Free Education provided to them, would become a “force to contend with at Hustings”?? That Notwithstanding ousted at next Hustings!! Good point to ponder, won’t be ever agreed on?!
      50+ years passed, not restored todate?!! None can beat Politicians on anything any day in SL!
      Maestros and Crooks, pastime is earning, “cream on the cake”, on the sidelines and ‘Tax Free’ and project themselves as Messiahs, salvaging the Nation state from disaster by their patriotic actions, whilst hiding the treachery of causing, untold hardships to the citizenry!!??
      Wonder, this nations’ citizens, haven’t learnt no lessons from Presidential (11/2019) and Parliamentary elections (08/2020)?? They will replicate next elections?? Mind Boggling!!??
      “NAVA GILUNUTH BAND CHUN”??!! ‘What for the telling No’?
      My take, believe that, Government of the People, for the people, by the People is best way enjoy principled Democracy and that people get the Rulers they deserve??!!However, wisdom of voters questionable (moot point) unfortunately isn’t easy to fathom, found unbelievably low for community of 90+% Literacy attainment??!!

  • 0
    0

    (Part II)
    One wonders, whether these Politicians then, thought that “students being more intelligent & have higher IQ than them, with exposure to excellent Free Education provided to them, would become a “force to contend with at Hustings”?? That Notwithstanding ousted at next Hustings!! Good point to ponder, won’t be ever agreed on?!
    50+ years passed, not restored todate?!! None can beat Politicians on anything any day in SL!
    Maestros and Crooks, pastime is earning, “cream on the cake”, on the sidelines and ‘Tax Free’ and project themselves as Messiahs, salvaging the Nation state from disaster by their patriotic actions, whilst hiding the treachery of causing, untold hardships to the citizenry!!??
    Wonder, this nations’ citizens, haven’t learnt no lessons from Presidential (11/2019) and Parliamentary elections (08/2020)?? They will replicate next elections?? Mind Boggling!!??
    “NAVA GILUNUTH BAND CHUN”??!! ‘What for the telling No’?
    My take, believe that, Government of the People, for the people, by the People is best way enjoy principled Democracy and that people get the Rulers they deserve??!!However, wisdom of voters questionable (moot point) unfortunately isn’t easy to fathom, found unbelievably low for community of 90+% Literacy attainment??!!

  • 0
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    RH,
    Very interesting article, and well chronicled.
    “Yuan Wang-5 is currently 400 nautical miles South-Southeast of Dondra Head at the southernmost tip of the island nation. It is a matter of detail that the vessel is mapping the ocean bed in an area close to the US military base in Diego Garcia.”
    The war in the Ukraine is going on and seems not to abate, around the Adriatic sea and Balkans in Europe and the scenario, as to Diego Garcia if it is correct, ominous signs of and shades of WW!!?!
    Who knows, Diego Garcia would and may become the ‘Pearl Harbour’ (Hawaii) of WWIII??!!
    Evil Axis may well become East Europe/North Asia (North Korea a well-deserved invitee!!) and the rest of the world??!!
    Doesn’t portend well??!!

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      “Evil Axis may well become East Europe/North Asia (North Korea a well-deserved invitee!!) and the rest of the world.”
      Based on geography, I find it hard to figure out what this Axis comprises. No key players except Russia perhaps.
      *
      “Who knows, Diego Garcia would and may become the ‘Pearl Harbour’”
      Cannot Trincomalee do that? It matches better.

      • 2
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        “Based on geography, I find it hard to figure out what this Axis comprises. No key players except Russia perhaps.”

        Based on same geography I have been wondering when did Sri Lanka become China’s neighbour.

        “As a friendly neighbour of Sri Lanka, China sincerely hopes that Sri Lanka maintains political stability, ethnic solidarity and national unity and wishes Sri Lanka greater achievements in its national development. “

        -China’s Permanent Representative in Geneva Ambassador Chen Xu
        China strongly supports Sri Lanka during UNHRC Session
        Saturday, February 27, 2021
        http://www.dailynews.lk/2021/02/27/local/242672/china-strongly-supports-sri-lanka-during-unhrc-session

  • 1
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    “It is evident, that India is not prepared to tolerate any more needling from China. ” So will pander to Sinhalese racism and chauvinism. to keep China at bay, whilst shedding fake tears about the Eelam Tamils and this includes, Indian Tamil politicians and ministers. We all know this

    • 1
      1

      SSS
      The Indian elite perhaps take themselves too seriously, even to the point of paranoia.
      If China has a problem with India it is along the northeastern border.
      The Indian Ocean is too big to be India’s lake, and contest is between China and the US.
      The ‘China threat’ is a powerful ploy for Indian ruling classes to justify meddling in South Asia. If at all, Nepal is the likely next theatre.

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